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Brussels Briefing n. 56: Paolo D’Odorico "Food-Energy-Water nexus: implications for developing countries"

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The Brussels Development Briefing n. 56 on The Land-Water-Energy nexus and the Sustainability of the Food System organised by CTA, the European Commission/EuropeAid, the ACP Secretariat and Concord was held on 3rd of July 2019, 9h00-13h00 at the ACP Secretariat, Avenue Georges Henri 451, 1200 Brussels, Room C.

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Brussels Briefing n. 56: Paolo D’Odorico "Food-Energy-Water nexus: implications for developing countries"

  1. 1. Food-Energy-Water nexus: Implications for developing countries Paolo D’Odorico, Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management University of California, Berkeley
  2. 2. Water Use Food Production Domestic Drinking 600-1800 1 (data from Falkenmark & Rockstrom, 2005) Most of the water we use is for agriculture Water Footprint Agriculture Domestic Industrial 85.8% 9.6% (data from Chapagain and Hoekstra, 2004) (Units: m3/person/yr) …mainly for food production
  3. 3. Water Use in Agriculture 19% of agricultural land is irrigated and produces 40% of the food IrrigatedRainfed Uses “green” water Both “blue & green” water “Green Water”: Root-zone soil moisture “Blue Water”: Water from Rivers, Lakes, Aquifers
  4. 4. Land Oceans ET=73 P=120 E=509 P=462 (1 unit=1012 m3/y) GR=1 SR=46 Advection=47 Data Source: Chow et al., (1988) Global Water Cycle In 2010: ≈12 ×1012 m3/y (Carr, D’Odorico et al., 2013) 10% of precipitation over land is used for agriculture 16% of terrestrial evapotranspiration is from agroecosystems Water Used in Agriculture How much water is used by agriculture? 87% 4% 4% 5% Global Blue Water Uses 67% 3% 30% Water Consumption in Agriculture (Blue + Green) 87% 4% 4% 5% Global Blue Water Uses Irrigation Domestic Industrial Energy 67% 3% 30% Water Consumption in Agriculture (Blue + Green) Food and Fiber Crops Biofuels Livestock (feed + rangeland)
  5. 5. Irrigated Areas in Year 2000 (After Rosa et al., ERL, 2018, Based on Irrigation maps by Portmann et al., 2010) Unsustainable if Irrigation Water Consumption > Local Availability=Runoff-Environmental Flows 40% of irrigation is unsustainable loss of environmental flows & environmental stocks
  6. 6. Irrigation in Africa Irrigation Water Consumption (km3 /y) Unsustainable Irrigation (km3 /y) % Unsustaina ble World 847.0 336.0 40% Africa 75.0 31.0 41% Egypt 40.2 17.4 43% Sudan 9.6 2.9 31% South Africa 6.8 2.7 40% Morocco 6.0 3.8 63% Algeria 2.3 1.2 51% Libya 1.7 1.5 86% Tunisia 1.5 0.6 41% Madagascar 1.4 0.0 2% Mali 1.1 0.1 12% (After Rosa et al., ERL, 2018, Based on Irrigation maps by Portmann et al., 2010 Assuming no deficit Irrigation in irrigated areas)
  7. 7. Increase in Global Water Demand (Davis & D’Odorico, ERL 2015) Population Growth Increase in Meat Consumption Biofuels: 2-6% of Water Use 0 50 100 150 2006 2008 2010 2012 X106m3 Bioethanol Biodiesel (data source: FAO-OECD, 2013) “Meat” requires 4-8 times more water per calorie than “vegetables”. ≈ 20% increase in per capita water footprint between 2009-2050 (Davis et al., GEC, 2016)
  8. 8. What about Water for Energy? • Biofuel Production (1.8 x 1011 m3y-1)(Rulli et al., 2016) • Extraction of fossil fuels (1.8 x 1010 m3y-1)(IEA, 2016) • Non-fuel based renewable energy Irrigation: ≈1.2 ×1012 m3/y (Siebert et al., 2010) Both blue and green water Only blue water
  9. 9. Water for Energy (IEA, 2016; D’Odorico et al., Rev. of Geophys., 2018) 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 Global Irrigation Energy Production Blue Water Consumption (x 10 12 m3 y-1) (IEA, 2016; D’Odorico et al., Rev. of Geophys., 2018) Biofuels Fossil Fuels Power Generation BLUE WATER CONSUMPTION FOR ENERGY PRODUCTION
  10. 10. 10 Global Bioethanol and Biodiesel Consumption Bioethanol Water (million m3) Water Used (106 m3) Biodiesel In 2000: 2-6% water use in agriculture (Rulli et al., Sci. Rep. 2016)
  11. 11. How many people can the Planet support, in case the presently cultivated land were used for both food and energy production? % of Fuels used for transport from Biofuels Population Size (billions) 10% 6.7 20% (*) 4.4 100% (*) 2.5 Applying the EU consumption rates per capita to the entire world (Rulli et al., Scientific Reports, 2016) Assumptions: 1) No expansion of agriculture 2) Using current crop Yields 3) Only energy for the transport sector 4) Applying EU per capita consumption to the entire world Land for Food, Energy or both?
  12. 12. Water Footprint of Fossil Fuels Fossil Fuel Extraction Fossil Fuel Replacement Natural Gas Crude Oil Coal 80 x 1012 70 x 1012 60 x 1012 50 x 1012 40 x 1012 30 x 1012 20 x 1012 10 x 1012 (m3y-1) (m3y-1) 2 x 1010 1 x 1010 The Water-Energy Nexus of Fossil Fuels • Biofuels: Use of present time water & land – Renewable • Fossil Fuels: Produced with resources from the past – Not Renewable We are virtually “burning” water from the past More water than the water cycle could sustain(D’Odorico et al., Earth’s Future, 2017)
  13. 13. Not enough water and land to rely only on fuels from plant biomass Reliance on: • Non-fuel based energy (solar, wind,…) • Fossil fuels: 20% increase by 2040 (US EIA, 2016; Exxon Mob Corp. 2016) - Unconventional fossil fuels : 25-40% increase by 2040 1) Oil sands/Tar Sands/Heavy Oil 2) Shale Oil 3) Shale Gas
  14. 14. Areas where shale oil/gas extraction could compete with agriculture for water Are we running out of Freshwater Resources for Food and Energy? 31–44% of shale deposits are in water stressed areas; (Rosa et al, Earth’s Future, 2018)
  15. 15. How can we meet the increasing demand for water for food? Agricultural Intensification (Godfray, Science, 2010; Foley et al., Nature, 2011) Close the Yield Gap (irrigation, fertilizers,…) Transition to Commercial Agriculture - Loss of livelihoods? Agricultural Extensification Expand the cultivated area Land Use Change Deforestation Biodiversity losses Ecologists Advocate for Intensification …because it avoids habitat destruction … however, in some regions there is no sufficient water to sustainably close the yield gap
  16. 16. … but, is there enough water to do it sustainably? by closing the yield gap we can feed 4 Billion people (Davis et al., Earth’s Future, 2014) Yield Gaps (Mueller et al., 2012)Billionsofpeople
  17. 17. If we account for water availability and environmental flows (Rosa et al., ERL, 2008) The Water Sustainability of Yield Gap Closure through Irrigation ExpansionIt is possible to sustainably - expand irrigation to 26% of currently rainfed areas - feed an additional 2.8 billion people Eliminating unsustainable irrigation: - In this case the world could feed “only” additional 1.8 billion people
  18. 18. In Africa: Great potential for sustainable expansion irrigation to rainfed areas  Increase in food production Water Current Irrigation Water Consumption (km3 /y) Current Unsustaina ble (%) Max Net Sustainable Increase (%) World 847.0 40% 9% Africa 75.0 41% 101% Egypt 40.2 43% -43% Sudan 9.6 31% 99% South Africa 6.8 40% 64% Morocco 6.0 63% 94% Algeria 2.3 51% 237% Libya 1.7 86% -32% Tunisia 1.5 41% 0% Madagascar 1.4 2% 61% Mali 1.1 12% 214% Food Total Production (1012 kcal y-1 ) Rainfed Production (1012 kcal y-1 ) Net Sustainable Increase (%) World 8981 6104 25% Africa 466 379 100% Egypt 69 0 -54% Sudan 17 15 76% South Africa 43 40 56% Morocco 15 13 107% Algeria 7 7 71% Libya 1 1 0% Tunisia 4 4 125% Madagascar 7 3 186%
  19. 19. Potential Self-sufficiency Self-sufficient Barely self-sufficient Trade dependent 2000 In 2030 at gap closure Even in the best gap closure/intensification scenario, locally, areas of food scarcity persist… particularly in Africa. Davis et al., Earth’s Future, 2014
  20. 20. The Global Food Trade Network 1986 2010 (D’Odorico, et al., Earth’s Future, 2014)Net Importers Net Exporters Globally, 24% of the food we eat reaches us through international trade
  21. 21. Virtual Water Trade In some regions of the world the water resources are not sufficient to feed the local population. Do they import water or food? Source: www.waterfootprint.org The notion of “Virtual Water” By Trading water we virtually trade food (Allan, 1998) Global virtual water flows: 2.4-3.2 × 10 12 m3/y Physical water flows (inter-basin transfers): 0.5 × 10 12 m3/y Local Supply>Demand Local Supply<Demand TotalFlux(1012m3y-1) Plants Luxury Animal Others 1980 1990 2000 2010 2.8 ×1012 m3/yr (Carr, et al., PLOS1, 2013) 1986 2011
  22. 22. Number of trade connections in space and time Carr, D’Odorico, Laio, Ridolfi, PLoS-One, 2013 Africa Remains less integrated in the global food market Number of trade partnerships
  23. 23. Globalization of Water through International Land Acquisitions Rulli, Saviori and D’Odorico, PNAS, 2013 Davis et al., Nature Geoscience, 2015 Dell’Angelo et al., World Development, 2017 - >67 million ha Area (millions ha) Do land acquisitions induce agricultural intensification or expansion? • Agricultural Intensification in previously cultivated land  Dispossession of local communities  Loss of Rural Livelihoods  Local Food Insecurity? • Agricultural Expansion  Deforestation of “virgin land”?  Environmental Impacs Based on Data from the Land Matrix, 2018 Questions: -How much more food can be produced? -What’s the role of water? 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Africa Asia & Oceania South America Total Area(×106ha) Not Under Production Under Production
  24. 24. Total for Africa (Millions): 52-89: with Existing Technology 123-212: at Gap Closure (140% increase) 223 Million Malnourished People in Sub-Saharan Africa (FAO, 2013) (Rulli and D’Odorico , Environm. Res. Lett., 2014) 72% foreign 3% under production
  25. 25. The hidden goals of land investments: - motivated by Water Needs - invoked as an approach to yield gap closure Rulli, Saviori and D’Odorico, PNAS, 2013 Yield gaps are still “big” in the developing world Large-scale land acquisitions transition from subsistence to large-scale commercial farming 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Africa Asia & Oceania South America Total WaterAppropriation(×109m3) Blue Water Green Water
  26. 26. How can we meet the increasing demand for water for food? Agricultural Intensification (Godfray, Science, 2010; Foley et al., Nature, 2011) Close the Yield Gap (irrigation, fertilizers,…) Transition to Commercial Agriculture - Loss of livelihoods? Agricultural Extensification Expand the cultivated area Land Use Change Deforestation Biodiversity losses Sustainable Intensification Improve Efficiency Adopt More Suitable Crops Increase production without requiring more land, more water, more investments
  27. 27. - Sustainable irrigation expansion on rainfed areas (yield gap closure) - Use water more efficiently - “more crop per drop” Soil water conservation (reduce soil evaporation) Crops with better water-use efficiency. Plant the right crop in the right place - Feed 825 million people more - Reduce water use by 12% (Davis et al., Nature Geoscience, 2017) Sustainable Intensification
  28. 28. Conclusions • Water remains a major constraint on food production • Some countries are in conditions of chronic water deficit • Trade and international investments  Globalization of Water, Land, and Food • Agricultural intensification often requires water and investments in technology - To what extent can it be done sustainably? - Change in system of production from small-scale to large scale farming… • Sustainable intensification Acknowledgements: Maria Cristina Rulli, Luca Ridolfi, Francesco Laio, Kyle Davis, Joel Carr, Lorenzo Rosa, Samir Suweis, Davide Chiarelli, Stefano Casirati, Stefano Vandoni, David Seekell, Jampel Dell’Angelo
  29. 29. Extra Slides (no need to translate)
  30. 30. Trade Intensification Green Revolution Industrial Revolution Food Crises: “running out of water?” Erisman et al., Nature Geoscience, 2012. Green Revolution
  31. 31. Meat Consumption vs. GDP per Capita (2013) Meat Consumption vs. GDP per Capita (1961-2013) GDP per Capita GDP per Capita MeatConsumptionperCapita(kg/yr) MeatConsumptionperCapita(kg/yr) Bennett’s Law Increase in per capita meat consumption “Meat” requires 4-8 times more water per calorie than “vegetables”. ≈ 20% increase in per capita water footprint between 2009-2050 (Davis et al., GEC, 2016) Kenya Tanzania Egypt Ethiopia Nigeria 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 1000 10000 100000 Meatconsumptionpercapita(kg/year) Real GDP per capita at chained PPPs in US$ Gabon Meat Consumption vs. GDP per Capita (2013) In Africa

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