Brussels Briefing n. 56: Craig Hanson "Sustainability of resources and conflict prevention through the nexus approach"

The Brussels Development Briefing n. 56 on The Land-Water-Energy nexus and the Sustainability of the Food System organised by CTA, the European Commission/EuropeAid, the ACP Secretariat and Concord was held on 3rd of July 2019, 9h00-13h00 at the ACP Secretariat, Avenue Georges Henri 451, 1200 Brussels, Room C.

Government & Nonprofit

July, 2019
Craig Hanson (Vice President of Food, Forests, Water, & the Ocean at the World Resources Institute)
SUSTAINABILITY OF RESOURCES AND CONFLICT
PREVENTION THROUGH THE NEXUS APPROACH
Photo: Espen Faugstad

wri.org/sustfoodfuture | World Resources Report: Creating a Sustainable Food Future
WORLD RESOURCES REPORT
How can the world feed nearly 10 billion people by 2050
in a way that advances economic development
while reducing pressure on the environment
(climate, water, ecosystems)?

wri.org/sustfoodfuture | World Resources Report: Creating a Sustainable Food Future
THE PARTNERS

1. THE FOOD GAP: 56% MORE FOOD NEEDED BY 2050
wri.org/sustfoodfuture | World Resources Report: Creating a Sustainable Food Future

2. THE LAND GAP: AVOID 593 MILLION HECTARES OF
AGRICULTURAL EXPANSION
wri.org/sustfoodfuture | World Resources Report: Creating a Sustainable Food Future

3. THE GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS GAP
wri.org/sustfoodfuture | World Resources Report: Creating a Sustainable Food Future

wri.org/sustfoodfuture | World Resources Report: Creating a Sustainable Food Future
3. THE GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS GAP

A MENU OF SOLUTIONS COULD CLOSE ALL 3 GAPS

+56%
+68%
+28–61%
+120 Mha
+400 Mha
Crop demand
Meat/dairy demand
Timber products demand
Expansion of pastureland
Expansion of urban areas
+88%
Beef/lamb demand
+200 Mha
Expansion of cropland
Sources: Searchinger et al. (2018), Elias and Boucher (2014), Seto et al. (2012), WWF (2012). Projections are “business as usual” and range from 2000-2030 to 2010-2060
image credit: Sam Beebe, Ecotrust
+250 Mha?
Expansion of timber plantations
FOOD-LAND NEXUS: INCREASING COMPETITION FOR LAND

70%
30%
Water Withdrawals
Agriculture Other
FOOD-WATER NEXUS
Much of the world’s cropland is water stressed
All
28% of cropland in highly
water stressed areas
Irrigated
56% of irrigated land in
highly water stressed areas

Source: WRI analysis based on UNEP (2012), FAO (2012e), EIA (2012), IEA (2012), and Houghton (2008) with adjustments.
Note: Figures may not equal 100% due to rounding.
* LULUCF = Land Use, Land Use Change, and Forestry.
** Includes emissions from on-farm energy consumption as well as from manufacturing of farm tractors, irrigation pumps, other machinery, and key inputs such as fertilizer. It excludes emissions
from the transport of food.
*** Excludes emissions from agricultural energy sources described above.
FOOD-ENERGY NEXUS

6.0
3.3
6.8
14.0
2013 2014 2015 2016
14 TWh of electricity is enough to power
Sri Lanka for an entire year
Sources: WRI Analysis; CEA 2016; Platts 2016; CIA 2014
WATER-ENERGY NEXUS
Example: More than 30 TWh of electricity generation ($2.8 billion in revenue) was
lost in India due to power plant shutdowns caused by water shortages (2013-2016)

Source: The Global Risks 2015 Report. World Economic Forum. 2015.
Source: World Economic Forum,
The Global Risks Report 2018.

Source: World Energy Outlook 2018
More than 90% of today’s global power generation
depends on water
All hydro power plants depend on water for
generating electricity
2017
nited States
pean Union
developing
economies
India
China
d economies
Japan
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2000 2017
Coal
Gas
Nuclear
Oil
Wind
Hydro
Other
Solar PV
Electricity generation
Most coal, gas, oil, and nuclear
plants depend on water for
cooling
Some other types of thermal plants, like concentrated solar and
biomass, also depend on water for cooling
Global electricity
generation share by fuel

Types of water-related shutdowns
United
States
France India Balkans Romania Kenya Brazil
Thermal plants
No cooling water
available due to water
shortages
No discharge allowed
due to high
temperatures
Hydro plants Low water levels in
reservoirs
Note: the table is not all inclusive, but includes examples in countries that are
representative in terms of development status and geography in the recent years.
Power plants around the globe are experiencing
disruptions caused by water constraints

AQUEDUCT FOOD LANDING PAGE: GLOBAL CROP LAYER

AREA WHERE RAINFED MILLET IS GROWN IN EAST AFRICA

DROUGHT RISK WHERE RAINFED MILLET IS GROWN IN EAST
AFRICA

DROUGHT RISK WHERE RAINFED MILLET IS GROWN IN EAST
AFRICA AND % OF POPULATION AT RISK OF HUNGER

- Agriculture accounts for over 80% of global freshwater usage, mainly for food production. Meeting future global food and energy demands in a sustainable manner poses challenges due to increasing water constraints. - Closing yield gaps through irrigation expansion could help boost food production, but over 40% of current irrigation is unsustainable due to exceeding local water availability. Agricultural intensification must be pursued carefully to avoid environmental degradation. - Transitioning to more efficient irrigation practices, suitable crops, and agricultural production systems could allow for sustainable increases in food supply while reducing overall water usage. However, ensuring local and global food and water security remains complex with growing population and dietary changes.

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This document summarizes a study on future water availability and food security in the Nile Basin. Population growth is increasing food demand substantially by 2025. The study models three scenarios for meeting this demand: national priorities, upstream control, and basin cooperation. Basin cooperation through improved rainfed agriculture, irrigation, hydropower, and food trade could increase agricultural production by 38% and gross profits by $1154 million, better satisfying needs across the region. Stabilizing political relations and optimizing water allocation over space and time are keys to ensuring long-term food security for all Nile Basin countries.

Mark Rosegrant, IFPRI

This document outlines challenges for water and food security, scenario modeling methodology, and alternative food and water scenarios to 2050. It discusses challenges including increasing population, rising incomes and diet changes, economic growth and meat consumption, supply drivers like climate change and competition with biofuels. It presents scenario modeling using IMPACT and alternative scenarios like climate change business as usual and a bioeconomy scenario. The bioeconomy scenario results in lower total water use, higher irrigation supply reliability, and reduced hunger. The document concludes with policies needed for water and food security like accelerating agricultural R&D, complementary policies and investments, economic reforms, and new water policies.

Tingju Zhu, IFPRI

This document discusses groundwater use and depletion in Asia and its implications for irrigated agriculture. It notes that Asia accounts for 70% of the world's net irrigated area and half of global groundwater used for irrigation. Regions like Northwestern India and North China Plain are particularly vulnerable to groundwater depletion. The growing population and changing diets in Asia are increasing demand for irrigation water. Sustainable groundwater management policies are needed to address this critical issue for Asian agriculture and food security.

Karen Villholth, International Water Management Institute

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

The document summarizes the role of groundwater in global food security. Some key points: - Groundwater irrigation currently provides 43% of irrigation water globally and supports 10% of global food production. - An estimated 15.5-18.5% of global groundwater irrigation relies on non-renewable groundwater resources, threatening future food security. - The document analyzes data on groundwater depletion rates, irrigation intensities, food production dependent on groundwater, and potential for increasing sustainable groundwater irrigation in Africa and elsewhere. - It concludes that urgent action is needed to address increasing reliance on non-sustainable groundwater for food production and potential solutions involve broader food and water policies.

Water-Energy-Food Nexus in Ethiopia: Constraints and Opportunities

1) Ethiopia faces constraints in the water-energy-food nexus due to its reliance on rain-fed agriculture and hydropower, leaving it vulnerable to climate change impacts like changing rainfall patterns. 2) Climate change is projected to reduce crop yields and river flows in Ethiopia by 2050, negatively impacting food production, hydropower generation, and economic growth. 3) A modeling analysis found that under climate change, Ethiopia's real GDP growth and welfare could be 0.14-0.21 percentage points lower annually by 2050, accumulating to losses of $143-238 billion over 2010-2050. Agriculture is most severely affected.

On World Environment Day (June 5, 2014), the World Resources Institute (WRI), WorldFish, the World Bank, INRA, and Kasetsart University released the newest installment of the 2013-14 World Resources Report: Creating a Sustainable Food Future, "Improving Productivity and Environmental Performance of Aquaculture." This working paper examines the implications of doubling aquaculture production between now and 2050, and offers recommendations to ensure that aquaculture growth contributes to a sustainable food future. Find out more at http://ow.ly/xHnJ2

Jay Lund, UC Davis Center for Watershed Sciences

1. California has a Mediterranean climate with wet winters and dry summers, creating major water needs for agriculture which uses 80% of human water usage. 2. The state has decentralized water management across multiple state and federal agencies and thousands of local water agencies, making policy changes difficult. 3. Major droughts and floods periodically test California's water infrastructure and policies, spurring innovation and progress on issues like groundwater management and conservation.

Water for food security

Creating a Sustainable Food Future: Interim Findings

This document discusses solutions for sustainably feeding over 9 billion people by 2050. It notes that reducing food loss and waste could close around 22% of the "food gap." Specifically, cutting the rate of food loss and waste in half by 2050 could reduce needed calorie production increases. Shifting diets towards healthier, more efficient options like plant-based proteins and achieving replacement level fertility worldwide also feature prominently in the sustainable food future solutions discussed. Achieving replacement level fertility, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, could significantly reduce projected population growth.

Claudia Ringler, IFPRI

1. Climate change is projected to increase water-related risks like water shortages and floods through changes in water quantity and quality. This poses challenges for the agriculture sector. 2. Adaptation options like improving water storage, irrigation systems, and rainfed agriculture as well as policies around trade, population growth, and pollution management need to be comprehensively assessed to address impacts on water availability, agricultural production, and food security under climate change. 3. Both water-based technical solutions and non-water policy options will be important to manage the growing problems of water variability, scarcity, and degradation exacerbated by climate change and socioeconomic development.

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This document summarizes findings from an OECD study on groundwater use policies in agriculture. It finds that groundwater irrigation accounts for 33% of total irrigated land and 56% of withdrawals in OECD countries. Intensive pumping can cause negative externalities like stream depletion, salinity, and land subsidence. Countries take diverse regulatory approaches from direct controls to economic instruments to collective management. Regions with less management experience higher groundwater use and stress. The study recommends a "tripod approach" for intensive use regions, involving entitlement systems, economic instruments, and collective management to move towards sustainability.

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This document discusses the interconnected challenges of water, energy, and food security, and how addressing them through a nexus approach can help adapt to climate change. It notes increasing global demands for these resources and competition between sectors. A nexus approach seeks coordinated solutions across sectors through policies, planning, and stakeholder engagement. Addressing the drivers of vulnerability in specific sectors can build resilience while providing co-benefits across the nexus, like increasing resource use efficiency and availability. Examples discussed include adopting more efficient irrigation techniques, renewable energy, drought-resistant crops, and managing watersheds and river basins in an integrated way.

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The document discusses the issue of unsustainable groundwater use and proposes various transitional solutions, such as using solar power for irrigation pumps in India instead of electricity from the grid, in order to reduce energy consumption and help recover water tables. It highlights a pilot project in India that provided farmers income by having them sell surplus solar power to the grid and receive bonuses for conserving water and energy. The document argues that taking a hybrid approach of solar irrigation with feed-in tariffs can provide both agricultural livelihoods and help address issues in energy, water, and climate.

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This document discusses the challenge of sustainably feeding over 9 billion people by 2050. It notes that crop production will need to increase significantly to close the expected food gap. A variety of solutions will be required, including improving agricultural productivity, reducing food loss and waste, increasing aquaculture and livestock production, and modifying diets. The solutions will need to advance development and reduce environmental impacts to create a sustainable global food system.

Agriculture and Groundwater Feeding Billions from the Ground Up

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This document discusses challenges related to global water scarcity and food security given projected population growth. It notes that dramatic population growth is projected for water-scarce areas of South Asia and Africa. Current agricultural practices rely heavily on irrigation, which buffers rainfall variability but is unsustainable. Solutions proposed include optimizing crop planting locations, improving irrigation efficiency, developing water pricing and storage strategies, and increasing rainfed crop yields through technology and management practices. The overall framing questions whether global food demands in 2050 can be met sustainably given water and land constraints.

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