Economywide Impacts of Accelerating
Groundwater Development in Uganda
---PRELIMINARY RESULTS
Transforming Food Systems from the Ground Up:
The Potential of Groundwater in Achieving Food Security and Prosperity in Africa
Side-event to the Science Days for the UN Food Systems Summit | July 6, 2021
Angga Pradesha and James Thurlow
International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington DC

Uganda’s Agri-Food System
Input suppliers
Farmers
Processors
Traders
Traders
Food Services
F
A
B
D
C
Hotels
E
23.9%
71.0%
38.5%
79.7%
GDP Employment
Food System Stretches Beyond the Farm
Contribution to total
GDP & employment
in 2018
Components of the
agri-food system
Source: IFPRI AgGDP+ and AgEMP+ estimates for Uganda (link)
Food System is Transforming… Slowly
Source: IFPRI AgGDP+ estimates for Uganda
1.4%
0.7%
0.2%
National GDP Agri-food system GDP Agricultural GDP
Average annual GDP growth
(net of population growth)
during 2013-2018
• Agricultural production & food supply are keeping up with
population growth
• But faster agricultural growth is needed to ensure food security

Agricultural Water Demand is Rising
Water-Economy Model Projection to 2030
Source: IFPRI RIAPA model of Uganda Source: Preliminary Uganda RIAPA model results
Agriculture
Off-farm
food system
Water
Rest of
economy
Households
Green
Blue
Grey
GDP
Employment
Poverty
FAO
National
accounts
Surveys
Data Model Outcomes
3.2%
2.8%
1.0%
Agri-food system GDP Agricultural GDP Blue water demand
• Simulate future outcomes assuming recent trends continue
• Model results suggest that scarce land & water resources are
constraining agricultural growth
Average annual growth
during 2018-2030
251 → 283
1000 m3
≈ 60%
groundwater

Groundwater Development Can Drive Transformation