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Climate and Disasters:
From basic facts to a vulnerable world
Thomas E Downing
15 January 2018, Lund
A. Climate Basics
What are the two
definitions of climate
change?
Answers later…
Three lines of evidence
• Physical basis of climate change
• Observed climate change
• Model validation and scenario testing
The world is getting warmer…
…and will continue to get warmer still
Decrease in return period for extreme events
Tracking climate science
• IPCC
– https://www.ipcc.ch/report/graphics/index.php?t=S
pecial%20Reports&r=SREX&f=SPM
• Public understanding of science
– http://www.climatesignals.org/
B. Climate change has
consequences
Four eras
A bit of history helps set the context
Causal chain
ClimateSignals.org
C. Ten current impacts
1. Another record warm year, without ENSO
See animated comparison of projections: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/01/why-2017-broke-
another-worrying-temperature-record/?utm_campaign=Feed%3A+inside-the-world-economic-
forum+%28Inside+The+World+Economic+Forum%29&utm_medium=feed&utm_source=feedburner
2. Extreme
circulation types
Arctic bomb highlighted warm and
cold spell at end of year across US
NASA: land surface temperatures from December 26,
2017, to January 2, 2018, compared with average
temperatures over the past eight years
3. Dead
seas
Red: number of oxygen
depleted zones along
coasts has increased
up to 10 times, from
less than 50 to 500
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/e
ntry/climate-change-ocean-dead-
zones_us_5a4ff489e4b003133ec
7cc3f
4. Coral reefs under attack
Time between severe bleaching events has shrunk by a factor of five
https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2018/01/coral-bleaching-reefs-climate-change-el-nino-environment/
5. Atlantic hurricane season
Harvey, Maria (shown making landfall
in Puerto Rico) and Irma cause $225
billion in economic damages by some
estimates
6. Fire in
California
7. Iberian
Fire
8. Flooding in Sierra Leone and China
• China:
• Yangtze floods killed 141 people and
caused $7.5 billion in damage
• Southern China floods killed 20 and
causes $4.5 billion in damages
• Sierra Leone
• Flood and mudslide worst on record
• At least 1,050 died in the Freetown
region
9. Outdoor
air pollution
Over 2 million people died globally in 2017
10. Drought
in East Africa
1.8 million displaced
$1.9 billion in damages
Somali drought of 2010 to
2011 led to famine with over
250,000 deaths
The global and local conspire
Creating disasters
From vulnerability
TDowning@ClimateAdaptation.cc
Based on lectures at Lund University
January 2018 for Mo Hamza’s module
on climate change adaptation and disaster
risk management

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Downing climate basics to impacts 5.2018

  • 1. Climate and Disasters: From basic facts to a vulnerable world Thomas E Downing 15 January 2018, Lund
  • 3. What are the two definitions of climate change? Answers later…
  • 4. Three lines of evidence • Physical basis of climate change • Observed climate change • Model validation and scenario testing
  • 5.
  • 6. The world is getting warmer…
  • 7. …and will continue to get warmer still
  • 8. Decrease in return period for extreme events
  • 9. Tracking climate science • IPCC – https://www.ipcc.ch/report/graphics/index.php?t=S pecial%20Reports&r=SREX&f=SPM • Public understanding of science – http://www.climatesignals.org/
  • 10. B. Climate change has consequences
  • 11. Four eras A bit of history helps set the context
  • 13. C. Ten current impacts
  • 14. 1. Another record warm year, without ENSO See animated comparison of projections: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/01/why-2017-broke- another-worrying-temperature-record/?utm_campaign=Feed%3A+inside-the-world-economic- forum+%28Inside+The+World+Economic+Forum%29&utm_medium=feed&utm_source=feedburner
  • 15. 2. Extreme circulation types Arctic bomb highlighted warm and cold spell at end of year across US NASA: land surface temperatures from December 26, 2017, to January 2, 2018, compared with average temperatures over the past eight years
  • 16. 3. Dead seas Red: number of oxygen depleted zones along coasts has increased up to 10 times, from less than 50 to 500 http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/e ntry/climate-change-ocean-dead- zones_us_5a4ff489e4b003133ec 7cc3f
  • 17. 4. Coral reefs under attack Time between severe bleaching events has shrunk by a factor of five https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2018/01/coral-bleaching-reefs-climate-change-el-nino-environment/
  • 18. 5. Atlantic hurricane season Harvey, Maria (shown making landfall in Puerto Rico) and Irma cause $225 billion in economic damages by some estimates
  • 21. 8. Flooding in Sierra Leone and China • China: • Yangtze floods killed 141 people and caused $7.5 billion in damage • Southern China floods killed 20 and causes $4.5 billion in damages • Sierra Leone • Flood and mudslide worst on record • At least 1,050 died in the Freetown region
  • 22. 9. Outdoor air pollution Over 2 million people died globally in 2017
  • 23. 10. Drought in East Africa 1.8 million displaced $1.9 billion in damages Somali drought of 2010 to 2011 led to famine with over 250,000 deaths
  • 24. The global and local conspire Creating disasters From vulnerability TDowning@ClimateAdaptation.cc Based on lectures at Lund University January 2018 for Mo Hamza’s module on climate change adaptation and disaster risk management