VIRUSES structure and classification ppt by Dr.Prince C P
Climate change as a global challenge
1. Climate change as a global
challenge
Including perspectives from IPCC AR5
Eystein Jansen
eystein.jansen@uib.no
2. IPCC – Brief history
• Established 1988 by UNEP and WMO
• Governments are members
• Decisions on actions taken in plenary meetings
• But the work is done in 3 Working groups: WG1,2,3
• Led by scientists and work is done by scientists
• Assesses the published scientific literature
• Main reports every 6 years
• Forms the factual background for UNFCCC (Climate
negotiations)
4. Broad and open internasjonal collaboration
Authors Countries Comments
5. “The size of this warming is
broadly consistent with
predictions of climate models,
but it is also of the same
magnitude as natural climate
variability.”
First Assessment Report 1990
“The balance of evidence
suggests a discernible
human influence on global
climate“
Second Assessment Report 1996
“In the light of new evidence and
taking into account the remaining
uncertainties, most of the
observed warming over the last 50
years is likely to have been due to
the increase in greenhouse gas
concentrations.“
Third Assessment Report 2001
“ Most of the observed increase in
global average temperatures since
the mid-20th century is very likely
due to the observed increase in
anthropogenic greenhouse gas
concentrations.“
Fourth Assessment Report 2007
“It is extremely likely that
human influence has been the
dominant cause of the observed
warming since the mid-20th
century..“
Fifth Assessment Report 2013
19. Are there more weather and climate
related catastrophes?
Floods Storms
Aval. Heat waves
Drought Forest and bushfires
1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2010
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
Reported events 4x increase
in 40 years
Floods and storms most
frequent events
Floods have increased most
Source: WMO Atlas of Mortality and Economic Losses from Weather, Climate and Water extremes
20. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
Sources of emissions
Energy production is the most important driver
35%
24% 21% 14%
6.4%
2010 GHG emissions
Energy Sector
Agriculture,
forests and
other land uses
Industry Transport
Building
Sector
AR5 WGIII SPM
25. Dai, Nature Clim. Change (2012)
Serious to extreme
drought
More soil moisture
Summer drought
(index based on 14 climate models; 2090-2099; RCP4.5)
26. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
Potential negative effects
Food and water
Poverty problems
Increased migration
Coastal flooding
AR5 WGII SPM
27. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
Potential negative effects
AR5 WGII SPM
“The need for adaptation measures to cope with these
projected impacts is significant even at 1.5-2°C warming.
However, the Loss and Damage in Africa report shows
that under all warming scenarios and despite strong
adaptation efforts in the region, considerable adverse
effects of climate change will be felt in Africa, resulting in
further loss and damage.”
(ACPC Loss and Damage report 2014)
28. Rainfall is the most important climatic factor to many
African countries and its Inter-annual variability has a
major impact on national economies
Weather and climate extremes such as droughts and
floods are quite common in eastern Africa
Climate extremes are often associated with food,
energy and water shortages, loss of life and property
among many other socio-economic disruptions.
VULNERABILITY TO THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE
EXTREMES AND NEED FOR MONITORING, PREDICTION
AND TIMELY EARLY WARNING
29. THE CLIMATE SYSTEM in E Africa
Eastern Africa exhibits a large variety of
complex topographical features that play
an important role in modulating the global
climate e.g. contrasts in its surface terrain,
a large inland moisture source in the
Congo region, large inland lakes, and
many other inland processes.
30. Model resolution
Klima
Regional Downscaling
necessary
OLLABORATION IN CLIM ATE
tion in hydrological modellingof
mary tool istheHBV model,first
sat SMHI,but now applied in
sworldwide.Other hydrological
E,HEC-HMS,VIC and ACRU,
propriate.Hydrological research
sticapproach,and thereby seeks
ompletechain in forecast produc-
al modelling.A current focusison
emethodsfor transferringdyna-
imatedatato hydrological mo-
sscales.Thisisacritical step to
esthat originatefrom climate
pmentsto streamlinethis
greatly facilitatetheuseof nume-
nsin hydrological applications,
ble” simulations.
ENT
gional DownscalingEXperiment
national programmesponsored
Research Program (WCRP) to
sourcesby servingasthebasisfor dialogue,priority
settingand policy formulation on climatechangeadap-
tation at theregional level.RICCAR will provideregio-
nal climateprojectionscoupled to regional hydrological
model simulationsto assessimpactson freshwater re-
sources.It will also incorporateextremeweather events
analysisin theclimatechangeimpact and vulnerability
assessments.ThisUN - LAS(Leagueof Arab States)
joint action includesanumber of UN and regional agen-
cies.SMHI isakey partner responsiblefor both regional
climatemodellingand hydrological modelling.
31. 18 km 2 km
Bergen
Difference in simulated extreme precipitation
between 18 km and 2 km resolution in complex
terrain
32. NEED FOR MONITORING, PREDICTION AND TIMELY
EARLY WARNING
Climate monitoring and skilful seasonal climate
prediction is crucial for proper planning and
management of all climate sensitive activities
including agriculture, water resources and
hydroelectric power supply, among many others.
Most Predictors for seasonal rainfall in the region
are mainly based on SSTs and ENSO
SST anomalies over Indian and Atlantic Oceans
are however the main cause of climate variability
in the region
33.
34.
35. 37
LINK BETWEEN ENSO AND CLIMATE
VARIABILITY
The Climate of eastern Africa depict very
strong seasonality. The climate anomalies
that are associated with ENSO events are
seasonal and location dependent.
Warm/Cold ENSO events are often, but not
always, associated with below/above
average rainfall amounts over most parts of
the eastern Africa during the major rainfall
seasons.
37. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
Door is about to be closed
65% of carbon budget for 2°C target is used up
What we have
emitted
1870-2011:
515
GtC
What is left:
275
GtCTotal karbon budget:
790
GtC
AR5 WGI SPM
38. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
Projected climate changes
Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause further
warming and changes in the climate system
Global glacier volume will
further decrease
Global mean sea level will
continue to rise during the
21st century
It is very likely that the Arctic
sea ice cover will continue to
shrink and thin as global mean
surface temperature rises
Oceans will continue to warm
during the 21st century
AR5 WGI SPM
Ocean acidification will
continue.
39. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
Adaptation to climate change
Adaptation can reduce the risks of climate change
impacts, but there are limits to its effectiveness.
Some adaptation responses involve significant co-benefits,
synergies, and trade-offs.
Increasing climate change will increase challenges for
many adaptation options.
AR5 WGI SPM, AR5 WGII SPM,AR5 WGIII SPM