1) The document summarizes key findings from the IPCC's Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX) regarding trends and projections for various climate extremes including floods, hurricanes, tornadoes, heat waves, drought, and wildfires.
2) The SREX found low confidence in attributed changes to many extremes due to lack of historical trends, but projected increases in some extremes like heat waves and drought in some regions.
3) The document discusses examples of extreme events from history that challenge the notion that recent extremes are unprecedented, such as the deadly 1936 North American heat wave.
- Tornadoes in the US have not increased in frequency, intensity or damage since 1950, and may have declined slightly. Floods and hurricanes also show no increasing trends in frequency or intensity over similar periods. Globally, weather-related economic losses have decreased as a proportion of GDP since 1990 despite greater development in vulnerable areas. While human-caused climate change poses risks, the data do not support claims of increasing trends in extreme weather events attributed to climate change. Projections suggest extremes may increase in the future, but detection of impacts on weather events will be difficult for many decades.
Gearing a National Statistical System Towards the Measurement of the Impact o...No to mining in Palawan
This is a revised version of the paper prepared for presentation to the Conference on Climate Change and Official Statistics organized by the United Nations Statistics Division in collaboration with Eurostat, the World Bank and Statistics Norway held at the Oslo Military Society, Oslo Norway on April 14 – 16 2008.
Moreover, the authors would like to acknowledge Ms. Zenaida B. Munoz, chief of the Research and Statistics Division of the Department of Environment and Natural Resources, respectively, for providing valuable comments to the paper.
Climate Change - Impacts and Humanitarian ImplicationsCharles Ehrhart
Climate change: impacts and humanitarian implications. Presentation at the Dubai International Humanitarian Aid & Development Conference (DIHAD), April 2009.
Dubai Int'l. Humanitarian and Develoment Conference, April 2009guest28f8f9d2
Climate change is having more severe impacts than initially predicted, with global temperatures projected to rise 3.4-7.2°C this century unless action is taken. Key impacts include increasing temperatures, shifting weather patterns, and more extreme weather. These changes undermine food security, water access, health, and livelihoods for the world's poorest, especially women and girls. Areas with high climate risks and human vulnerability will face worsening humanitarian disasters over the next 20-30 years. Urgent action is needed to address climate change and support adaptation among vulnerable communities.
John Holdren on Climate Change Challenge 2018 02-15Vincent Everts
In Nantucket I attended an amazing and scary presentation by John Holdren on Climate Change. John Paul Holdren was the senior advisor to President Barack Obama on science and technology issues through his roles as Assistant to the President for Science and Technology, Director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, and Co-Chair of the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST).
Holdren was previously the Teresa and John Heinz Professor of Environmental Policy at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University, director of the Science, Technology, and Public Policy Program at the School's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, and Director of the Woods Hole Research Center.
Finding - Climate extremes and their impactsipcc-media
Climate extremes and their impacts were discussed. It was noted that a changing climate leads to changes in extreme weather events, both in terms of frequency and intensity. Extreme events interacting with vulnerable systems can lead to disasters. Various climate indices were presented to quantify extremes such as temperature and precipitation. Projections indicate increases in hot days and heavy precipitation. Managing risks requires understanding vulnerability and exposure as well as implementing measures like early warning systems, infrastructure improvements, and development policies. Adaptation requires addressing local conditions and involves both short-term risk reduction and long-term sustainable solutions.
Climate Change Adaptation within the Purview of National Security and Sustain...Francisco Ashley Acedillo
Delivered during the 11th National Congress of the Phil. Society of NSTP Educators and Implementers (PSNEI, Inc.) last April 10-12, 2013 in Davao City, Philippines.
The document discusses the facts and dangers of climate change and global warming. It notes that human population has quadrupled in the last 100 years and greenhouse gas emissions are causing rising global temperatures. This is evidenced by melting glaciers and shifting climate patterns. The consequences of inaction could include rising sea levels that devastate coastal areas, more frequent extreme weather events, and mass species extinction. Urgent global action is needed to transition to renewable energy and sustainable practices through a worldwide green revolution in order to avoid catastrophic economic and social impacts of unabated climate change.
- Tornadoes in the US have not increased in frequency, intensity or damage since 1950, and may have declined slightly. Floods and hurricanes also show no increasing trends in frequency or intensity over similar periods. Globally, weather-related economic losses have decreased as a proportion of GDP since 1990 despite greater development in vulnerable areas. While human-caused climate change poses risks, the data do not support claims of increasing trends in extreme weather events attributed to climate change. Projections suggest extremes may increase in the future, but detection of impacts on weather events will be difficult for many decades.
Gearing a National Statistical System Towards the Measurement of the Impact o...No to mining in Palawan
This is a revised version of the paper prepared for presentation to the Conference on Climate Change and Official Statistics organized by the United Nations Statistics Division in collaboration with Eurostat, the World Bank and Statistics Norway held at the Oslo Military Society, Oslo Norway on April 14 – 16 2008.
Moreover, the authors would like to acknowledge Ms. Zenaida B. Munoz, chief of the Research and Statistics Division of the Department of Environment and Natural Resources, respectively, for providing valuable comments to the paper.
Climate Change - Impacts and Humanitarian ImplicationsCharles Ehrhart
Climate change: impacts and humanitarian implications. Presentation at the Dubai International Humanitarian Aid & Development Conference (DIHAD), April 2009.
Dubai Int'l. Humanitarian and Develoment Conference, April 2009guest28f8f9d2
Climate change is having more severe impacts than initially predicted, with global temperatures projected to rise 3.4-7.2°C this century unless action is taken. Key impacts include increasing temperatures, shifting weather patterns, and more extreme weather. These changes undermine food security, water access, health, and livelihoods for the world's poorest, especially women and girls. Areas with high climate risks and human vulnerability will face worsening humanitarian disasters over the next 20-30 years. Urgent action is needed to address climate change and support adaptation among vulnerable communities.
John Holdren on Climate Change Challenge 2018 02-15Vincent Everts
In Nantucket I attended an amazing and scary presentation by John Holdren on Climate Change. John Paul Holdren was the senior advisor to President Barack Obama on science and technology issues through his roles as Assistant to the President for Science and Technology, Director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, and Co-Chair of the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST).
Holdren was previously the Teresa and John Heinz Professor of Environmental Policy at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University, director of the Science, Technology, and Public Policy Program at the School's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, and Director of the Woods Hole Research Center.
Finding - Climate extremes and their impactsipcc-media
Climate extremes and their impacts were discussed. It was noted that a changing climate leads to changes in extreme weather events, both in terms of frequency and intensity. Extreme events interacting with vulnerable systems can lead to disasters. Various climate indices were presented to quantify extremes such as temperature and precipitation. Projections indicate increases in hot days and heavy precipitation. Managing risks requires understanding vulnerability and exposure as well as implementing measures like early warning systems, infrastructure improvements, and development policies. Adaptation requires addressing local conditions and involves both short-term risk reduction and long-term sustainable solutions.
Climate Change Adaptation within the Purview of National Security and Sustain...Francisco Ashley Acedillo
Delivered during the 11th National Congress of the Phil. Society of NSTP Educators and Implementers (PSNEI, Inc.) last April 10-12, 2013 in Davao City, Philippines.
The document discusses the facts and dangers of climate change and global warming. It notes that human population has quadrupled in the last 100 years and greenhouse gas emissions are causing rising global temperatures. This is evidenced by melting glaciers and shifting climate patterns. The consequences of inaction could include rising sea levels that devastate coastal areas, more frequent extreme weather events, and mass species extinction. Urgent global action is needed to transition to renewable energy and sustainable practices through a worldwide green revolution in order to avoid catastrophic economic and social impacts of unabated climate change.
This is the fifth lesson taught under the course - Climate Change and Global Environment at the Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities, Rajarata University of Sri Lanka
Energy and Climate Change: Challenges for Science and Policybis_foresight
The document discusses three main challenges related to climate change: the scientific challenge of observing, understanding, and predicting climate behavior; the communications challenge of translating complex climate science for policymakers and the public; and the policy challenge of responding to climate risks. It provides details on trends in climate observations, the scientific consensus around human-caused warming, and impacts that could be expected at different levels of temperature rise. It also examines public opinions on climate change and options for policy responses like mitigation and adaptation.
The document discusses several global trends related to natural hazards and disasters. It notes that while the number of reported disasters has increased significantly since 1960 due to improved recording and communications, the number of people killed by disasters has fallen. However, population growth and urbanization have led to more people living in hazardous areas, increasing risks. Other trends like climate change, deforestation, and poverty are also thought to be exacerbating disaster impacts, particularly in developing regions. Overall, global trends show rising disaster occurrence but falling death tolls, suggesting improvements in disaster management, warning systems, and relief efforts. However, the total economic costs of disasters continue rising.
This document provides a balanced look at arguments surrounding climate change. It presents two perspectives: one from organizations like the IPCC that see impacts from climate change, and another from groups like the Copenhagen Consensus that see less severe impacts. The document discusses topics like food production, extreme weather, sea level rise, droughts, heat waves, and polar bears. It aims to avoid alarmism and present both sides of issues in a balanced manner.
The 2023 state of the climate report: Entering uncharted territoryEnergy for One World
This document provides a summary of the 2023 state of the climate report. Key points:
- Climate-related records were broken around the world in 2023, including record high temperatures, ocean warming, and low sea ice levels. This indicates the climate is entering uncharted and potentially dangerous territory.
- 20 of 35 monitored climate indicators, such as carbon dioxide levels, glacier loss, and forest loss, are now showing record extremes according to data. Human activities like fossil fuel use and deforestation remain major drivers of climate change.
- The report analyzes climate-related trends and aims to communicate facts to spur climate policy and action, given the existential threats posed by the climate crisis entering an
John Holdren on climate change challenge (Nantucket)Vincent Everts
John Holdren presented “Climate Change and the Cape & Islands: What We Know. What We Expect. What We Can Do.” on July 30, 2018 as part of the Geschke Lecture Series held at the Nantucket Atheneum.
Today, CO2 emissions from fossil fuels are around 50 per cent higher than they were 20 years ago, and have been rising each year. This kind of change to the chemical mixture in the air doesn’t come without consequences. Acting like a blanket, the build-up of greenhouse gases is the main reason why the average global temperature has risen by nearly 1°C in the last century. This booklet explains why a rise of only a few degrees in the average global temperature risks our prosperity, security, and health. It explains why it is so important to reverse the rise in emissions within the decade. And why it is still within our means to do so. For more information visit www.climateinstitute.org.au/dangerous-degrees.html
Climate Change & Its Implications to Livelihoods and Economic Development in...Dr. Joshua Zake
Climate change will have significant implications for livelihoods and economic development in Uganda if actions are not taken. Prolonged droughts from climate change are already occurring and have resulted in crop failures and food insecurity impacting over 1.8 million people in 1993-1994 and 3.5 million people in 1999. As droughts and unreliable rainfall increase due to climate change, agriculture production and livestock rearing, which account for a major part of Uganda's GDP, will be severely threatened, negatively impacting the country's economy and development. Urgent action is needed now to adapt to and mitigate the effects of climate change in order to reduce vulnerability and support continued economic growth.
This document discusses the links between climate change and conflict based on a report by the Environmental Justice Foundation. It finds that climate change will be an increasingly important factor contributing to conflicts, acting as a threat multiplier in situations with existing stressors. Climate change impacts resource scarcity, human migration patterns, and state fragility. One of the most pronounced links is between climate change and access to natural resources, which may exacerbate tensions. Freshwater scarcity is also a significant factor driving political tensions between states. Climate change also presents challenges related to human migration and displacement. Fragile and post-conflict states are particularly susceptible to impacts of climate change. Urgent global action is needed to address climate change and prevent related conflicts.
The document summarizes key findings from two reports on climate change and the environment. The Third Assessment Report from 2001 found that average land temperatures had increased 0.6 degrees Celsius over the 20th century due to greenhouse gases and human activity. It also projected more extreme weather events and impacts. The Fourth Assessment Report provided more data and research showing substantial human-caused environmental damage and climate change impacts like rising temperatures and sea levels. It emphasized reducing greenhouse gas emissions but saw the Kyoto Protocol as a disappointment.
The document discusses how global warming has led to rising temperatures and melting ice sheets over the last century, with scientists establishing that high carbon dioxide levels are the main cause. Global warming poses life-threatening risks and is primarily human-caused due to technological advances, though some debate whether it is natural or man-made remains. The public has been influenced by media to be less concerned about global warming, but scientists warn it needs urgent action.
The document discusses the impacts of climate change based on IPCC findings. It notes that greenhouse gas concentrations are at their highest levels in at least 420,000 years and that the planet will continue warming for decades even if emissions are reduced now. Specific impacts discussed include increasing temperatures, more extreme weather events, rising sea levels, and threats to agriculture, water resources, health, and coastal areas in the Philippines from these changes.
1. My career from technician to scientist-engineer
2. How Climate Change Impacts Hurricanes and Weather Extremes
3. Finding Truth, Evaluating “Fake News” which confuses Weather & Climate.
4. What we can do to stop global warming.
Dr. Terry Cannon gave a guest lecture on climate change and its impacts. He summarized the scientific consensus that climate change is occurring due to human activities like burning fossil fuels and deforestation, and that impacts are already being seen. Average global temperatures have risen 0.7°C and are projected to increase at least 2°C by 2050. Climate change will increase hazards like extreme weather events. Vulnerability to climate impacts depends on social and economic factors like poverty, gender, and access to resources. Disasters occur where hazards affect vulnerable people, so disasters are socially constructed. Adaptation and building resilience are needed to address climate change impacts.
Un intended consequences of offensive weather modificationRobert Hardt
This document discusses the risks and unintended consequences of weather modification and geoengineering experiments. It notes that while the goals may be to temporarily lower temperatures or sequester carbon, modeling shows these techniques could have catastrophic impacts in some tropical and subtropical regions. The document also discusses the concept of "global dimming" caused by air pollution and contrails, and how this may have masked some greenhouse warming effects until levels began decreasing in the 1980s. Overall it raises ethical concerns about interfering with complex weather systems, and the risk that efforts to modify weather could backfire or have unpredictable effects.
Addressing the climate emergency; getting to Net Zero carbon emissions by 2030. Talk presented in Phoenix, October 11, 2019 to Insulation Contractors Association of America.
This document provides a summary of the state of the global climate in 2019 based on data from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Some key points:
- 2019 is likely the 2nd or 3rd warmest year on record with global temperatures about 1.1°C above pre-industrial levels. The past 5 years are almost certainly the warmest in recorded history.
- Atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide reached new record highs in 2018 and continued rising in 2019.
- Ocean heat content remained at record or near-record levels in 2019, with the average exceeding the previous record set in 2018. Higher ocean temperatures contribute to sea
This document provides an overview of global hazards and trends related to climate change. It begins with key terms used to describe different types of hazards. Statistics show that while the number of deaths from disasters has decreased due to better protection, the total number affected has increased significantly since the 1990s. This is likely due to growing populations living in at-risk areas combined with more frequent or intense extreme weather events associated with climate change. El Niño/La Niña cycles also influence hazard patterns globally, bringing drought to some areas and floods to others. Human activities like deforestation exacerbate the impacts of disasters by increasing vulnerability.
This document provides an overview of climate variability and climate change concepts. It discusses the differences between weather and climate, and defines climate variability as natural fluctuations in climate over different time scales. Examples of climate variability include El Niño and changes caused by volcanic eruptions. The document also addresses climate change, noting the scientific consensus that warming trends over recent decades are unequivocal and largely caused by human activities. Projections suggest that if greenhouse gas emissions continue rising, global temperatures will likely increase more than during the 20th century, affecting precipitation patterns, sea level rise, and extreme weather events.
This document provides an overview of the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA). COLA conducts research on climate variability and predictability using climate models and reanalysis data. It has a team of climate scientists and supports PhD students at George Mason University. COLA receives multi-agency funding through a jointly peer-reviewed grant and has been recognized as a national center of excellence for its work on seasonal to decadal prediction and understanding land-atmosphere interactions. COLA scientists collaborate with modeling centers like NCAR, NASA, NOAA and contribute to climate model development and multi-model ensembles to advance predictive capability.
This document discusses global warming and presents evidence that it is real and poses serious risks. It summarizes the greenhouse effect and increasing carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere. Observed impacts include rising temperatures worldwide, melting glaciers and sea ice, and shifting species ranges. Projected impacts include more extreme heat waves, worsening droughts and wildfires, rising sea levels submerging coastal areas, and altered precipitation patterns exacerbating problems for agriculture and water resources. Addressing global warming requires international cooperation given uneven contributions to the problem and effects. Improving climate prediction is important to managing associated risks through adaptation and mitigation efforts.
This is the fifth lesson taught under the course - Climate Change and Global Environment at the Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities, Rajarata University of Sri Lanka
Energy and Climate Change: Challenges for Science and Policybis_foresight
The document discusses three main challenges related to climate change: the scientific challenge of observing, understanding, and predicting climate behavior; the communications challenge of translating complex climate science for policymakers and the public; and the policy challenge of responding to climate risks. It provides details on trends in climate observations, the scientific consensus around human-caused warming, and impacts that could be expected at different levels of temperature rise. It also examines public opinions on climate change and options for policy responses like mitigation and adaptation.
The document discusses several global trends related to natural hazards and disasters. It notes that while the number of reported disasters has increased significantly since 1960 due to improved recording and communications, the number of people killed by disasters has fallen. However, population growth and urbanization have led to more people living in hazardous areas, increasing risks. Other trends like climate change, deforestation, and poverty are also thought to be exacerbating disaster impacts, particularly in developing regions. Overall, global trends show rising disaster occurrence but falling death tolls, suggesting improvements in disaster management, warning systems, and relief efforts. However, the total economic costs of disasters continue rising.
This document provides a balanced look at arguments surrounding climate change. It presents two perspectives: one from organizations like the IPCC that see impacts from climate change, and another from groups like the Copenhagen Consensus that see less severe impacts. The document discusses topics like food production, extreme weather, sea level rise, droughts, heat waves, and polar bears. It aims to avoid alarmism and present both sides of issues in a balanced manner.
The 2023 state of the climate report: Entering uncharted territoryEnergy for One World
This document provides a summary of the 2023 state of the climate report. Key points:
- Climate-related records were broken around the world in 2023, including record high temperatures, ocean warming, and low sea ice levels. This indicates the climate is entering uncharted and potentially dangerous territory.
- 20 of 35 monitored climate indicators, such as carbon dioxide levels, glacier loss, and forest loss, are now showing record extremes according to data. Human activities like fossil fuel use and deforestation remain major drivers of climate change.
- The report analyzes climate-related trends and aims to communicate facts to spur climate policy and action, given the existential threats posed by the climate crisis entering an
John Holdren on climate change challenge (Nantucket)Vincent Everts
John Holdren presented “Climate Change and the Cape & Islands: What We Know. What We Expect. What We Can Do.” on July 30, 2018 as part of the Geschke Lecture Series held at the Nantucket Atheneum.
Today, CO2 emissions from fossil fuels are around 50 per cent higher than they were 20 years ago, and have been rising each year. This kind of change to the chemical mixture in the air doesn’t come without consequences. Acting like a blanket, the build-up of greenhouse gases is the main reason why the average global temperature has risen by nearly 1°C in the last century. This booklet explains why a rise of only a few degrees in the average global temperature risks our prosperity, security, and health. It explains why it is so important to reverse the rise in emissions within the decade. And why it is still within our means to do so. For more information visit www.climateinstitute.org.au/dangerous-degrees.html
Climate Change & Its Implications to Livelihoods and Economic Development in...Dr. Joshua Zake
Climate change will have significant implications for livelihoods and economic development in Uganda if actions are not taken. Prolonged droughts from climate change are already occurring and have resulted in crop failures and food insecurity impacting over 1.8 million people in 1993-1994 and 3.5 million people in 1999. As droughts and unreliable rainfall increase due to climate change, agriculture production and livestock rearing, which account for a major part of Uganda's GDP, will be severely threatened, negatively impacting the country's economy and development. Urgent action is needed now to adapt to and mitigate the effects of climate change in order to reduce vulnerability and support continued economic growth.
This document discusses the links between climate change and conflict based on a report by the Environmental Justice Foundation. It finds that climate change will be an increasingly important factor contributing to conflicts, acting as a threat multiplier in situations with existing stressors. Climate change impacts resource scarcity, human migration patterns, and state fragility. One of the most pronounced links is between climate change and access to natural resources, which may exacerbate tensions. Freshwater scarcity is also a significant factor driving political tensions between states. Climate change also presents challenges related to human migration and displacement. Fragile and post-conflict states are particularly susceptible to impacts of climate change. Urgent global action is needed to address climate change and prevent related conflicts.
The document summarizes key findings from two reports on climate change and the environment. The Third Assessment Report from 2001 found that average land temperatures had increased 0.6 degrees Celsius over the 20th century due to greenhouse gases and human activity. It also projected more extreme weather events and impacts. The Fourth Assessment Report provided more data and research showing substantial human-caused environmental damage and climate change impacts like rising temperatures and sea levels. It emphasized reducing greenhouse gas emissions but saw the Kyoto Protocol as a disappointment.
The document discusses how global warming has led to rising temperatures and melting ice sheets over the last century, with scientists establishing that high carbon dioxide levels are the main cause. Global warming poses life-threatening risks and is primarily human-caused due to technological advances, though some debate whether it is natural or man-made remains. The public has been influenced by media to be less concerned about global warming, but scientists warn it needs urgent action.
The document discusses the impacts of climate change based on IPCC findings. It notes that greenhouse gas concentrations are at their highest levels in at least 420,000 years and that the planet will continue warming for decades even if emissions are reduced now. Specific impacts discussed include increasing temperatures, more extreme weather events, rising sea levels, and threats to agriculture, water resources, health, and coastal areas in the Philippines from these changes.
1. My career from technician to scientist-engineer
2. How Climate Change Impacts Hurricanes and Weather Extremes
3. Finding Truth, Evaluating “Fake News” which confuses Weather & Climate.
4. What we can do to stop global warming.
Dr. Terry Cannon gave a guest lecture on climate change and its impacts. He summarized the scientific consensus that climate change is occurring due to human activities like burning fossil fuels and deforestation, and that impacts are already being seen. Average global temperatures have risen 0.7°C and are projected to increase at least 2°C by 2050. Climate change will increase hazards like extreme weather events. Vulnerability to climate impacts depends on social and economic factors like poverty, gender, and access to resources. Disasters occur where hazards affect vulnerable people, so disasters are socially constructed. Adaptation and building resilience are needed to address climate change impacts.
Un intended consequences of offensive weather modificationRobert Hardt
This document discusses the risks and unintended consequences of weather modification and geoengineering experiments. It notes that while the goals may be to temporarily lower temperatures or sequester carbon, modeling shows these techniques could have catastrophic impacts in some tropical and subtropical regions. The document also discusses the concept of "global dimming" caused by air pollution and contrails, and how this may have masked some greenhouse warming effects until levels began decreasing in the 1980s. Overall it raises ethical concerns about interfering with complex weather systems, and the risk that efforts to modify weather could backfire or have unpredictable effects.
Addressing the climate emergency; getting to Net Zero carbon emissions by 2030. Talk presented in Phoenix, October 11, 2019 to Insulation Contractors Association of America.
This document provides a summary of the state of the global climate in 2019 based on data from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Some key points:
- 2019 is likely the 2nd or 3rd warmest year on record with global temperatures about 1.1°C above pre-industrial levels. The past 5 years are almost certainly the warmest in recorded history.
- Atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide reached new record highs in 2018 and continued rising in 2019.
- Ocean heat content remained at record or near-record levels in 2019, with the average exceeding the previous record set in 2018. Higher ocean temperatures contribute to sea
This document provides an overview of global hazards and trends related to climate change. It begins with key terms used to describe different types of hazards. Statistics show that while the number of deaths from disasters has decreased due to better protection, the total number affected has increased significantly since the 1990s. This is likely due to growing populations living in at-risk areas combined with more frequent or intense extreme weather events associated with climate change. El Niño/La Niña cycles also influence hazard patterns globally, bringing drought to some areas and floods to others. Human activities like deforestation exacerbate the impacts of disasters by increasing vulnerability.
This document provides an overview of climate variability and climate change concepts. It discusses the differences between weather and climate, and defines climate variability as natural fluctuations in climate over different time scales. Examples of climate variability include El Niño and changes caused by volcanic eruptions. The document also addresses climate change, noting the scientific consensus that warming trends over recent decades are unequivocal and largely caused by human activities. Projections suggest that if greenhouse gas emissions continue rising, global temperatures will likely increase more than during the 20th century, affecting precipitation patterns, sea level rise, and extreme weather events.
This document provides an overview of the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA). COLA conducts research on climate variability and predictability using climate models and reanalysis data. It has a team of climate scientists and supports PhD students at George Mason University. COLA receives multi-agency funding through a jointly peer-reviewed grant and has been recognized as a national center of excellence for its work on seasonal to decadal prediction and understanding land-atmosphere interactions. COLA scientists collaborate with modeling centers like NCAR, NASA, NOAA and contribute to climate model development and multi-model ensembles to advance predictive capability.
This document discusses global warming and presents evidence that it is real and poses serious risks. It summarizes the greenhouse effect and increasing carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere. Observed impacts include rising temperatures worldwide, melting glaciers and sea ice, and shifting species ranges. Projected impacts include more extreme heat waves, worsening droughts and wildfires, rising sea levels submerging coastal areas, and altered precipitation patterns exacerbating problems for agriculture and water resources. Addressing global warming requires international cooperation given uneven contributions to the problem and effects. Improving climate prediction is important to managing associated risks through adaptation and mitigation efforts.
1. The document discusses methods for separating forced and unforced climate variability and identifying patterns of multidecadal predictability.
2. A new statistical method is used to identify an unforced, multidecadal sea surface temperature pattern in simulations and observations.
3. Forced warming is estimated to contribute 0.1K per decade, while an identified internal multidecadal pattern explains about 0.1C fluctuations in global average sea surface temperature over decades.
This document provides a retrospective on the past 30 years (1975-2004) of dynamical seasonal prediction and conjectures about its future. It discusses key historical contributions in weather predictability and prediction from researchers around the world. It outlines progress from numerical weather prediction to dynamical seasonal prediction, including early work demonstrating monthly and seasonal predictability. Factors limiting predictability of the coupled climate system are discussed. Challenges remaining include improving coupled climate models, observations, computing power, and applications. The document concludes that while weather prediction skill has improved 50% over 25 years, seasonal prediction skill remains limited by incomplete understanding and models, though continued progress is expected.
This document summarizes recent evidence on the co-benefits of climate policies from various studies and models. Key points include:
1) Energy efficiency measures often have negative costs and provide direct financial benefits to consumers without considering externalities of energy use. However, free markets are sub-optimal and underinvest in efficiency.
2) Climate policies that stabilize emissions at 450 ppm have significant co-benefits like reducing health costs from air pollution, lowering energy imports and costs, and increasing economic productivity.
3) Models like the IEA WEO and ETP show the energy sector investments needed to transition to low-carbon technologies can be largely offset by fuel savings over time, even with a 10% discount
This document summarizes research conducted at Mt. Almagre, Colorado to update the bristlecone pine tree ring chronology originally developed in the 1980s. 64 new core samples were taken from 36 trees, with 38 cores from 20 trees near the original Graybill site. Preliminary analysis found the new chronology matched the original well but showed a "divergence problem" of declining ring widths in recent decades, inconsistent with expectations of increasing growth due to warming. The findings suggest this high elevation, southern site is moisture-limited and its tree rings may not be reliable temperature proxies as previously thought. Challenges in modeling growth of trees with strip bark were also noted.
1. The document summarizes key findings from an NRC panel and McIntyre's work that are critical of some climate reconstruction studies.
2. It notes that the NRC panel agreed with McIntyre that bristlecone pines are flawed proxies that should be avoided, and that some reconstructions could not claim the warmest years or decades.
3. The document also shows that just a few problematic proxies like bristlecone pines and the Yamal chronology seem to drive conclusions of modern warming being unprecedented, and that alternative reconstructions without these proxies show more comparable medieval warming.
This document provides context and background related to the "Climategate" emails by summarizing key events and studies from 1998-2010 involving climate scientists whose communications were released. It discusses proxy temperature reconstructions by Briffa and Mann that showed warming trends, debates around presenting this data to policymakers, concerns about the "divergence problem" in tree-ring data after 1960, and the handling of proxy data in IPCC reports. The author aims to give a factual perspective on the scientists' discussions and decisions revealed in the Climategate emails without making a judgment on the validity of climate science.
1) The document summarizes Stephen McIntyre's presentation to the House Energy and Commerce Committee on issues with the "hockey stick" temperature reconstruction and climate data access.
2) Key points from multiple panels and studies are that Mann's principal components method was biased towards producing a hockey stick shape, claims of statistical significance were overstated, and using bristlecone pines should be avoided.
3) The document argues that simple measures could improve data access policies regardless of views on climate policy.
Travis Hills' Endeavors in Minnesota: Fostering Environmental and Economic Pr...Travis Hills MN
Travis Hills of Minnesota developed a method to convert waste into high-value dry fertilizer, significantly enriching soil quality. By providing farmers with a valuable resource derived from waste, Travis Hills helps enhance farm profitability while promoting environmental stewardship. Travis Hills' sustainable practices lead to cost savings and increased revenue for farmers by improving resource efficiency and reducing waste.
Nucleophilic Addition of carbonyl compounds.pptxSSR02
Nucleophilic addition is the most important reaction of carbonyls. Not just aldehydes and ketones, but also carboxylic acid derivatives in general.
Carbonyls undergo addition reactions with a large range of nucleophiles.
Comparing the relative basicity of the nucleophile and the product is extremely helpful in determining how reversible the addition reaction is. Reactions with Grignards and hydrides are irreversible. Reactions with weak bases like halides and carboxylates generally don’t happen.
Electronic effects (inductive effects, electron donation) have a large impact on reactivity.
Large groups adjacent to the carbonyl will slow the rate of reaction.
Neutral nucleophiles can also add to carbonyls, although their additions are generally slower and more reversible. Acid catalysis is sometimes employed to increase the rate of addition.
What is greenhouse gasses and how many gasses are there to affect the Earth.moosaasad1975
What are greenhouse gasses how they affect the earth and its environment what is the future of the environment and earth how the weather and the climate effects.
hematic appreciation test is a psychological assessment tool used to measure an individual's appreciation and understanding of specific themes or topics. This test helps to evaluate an individual's ability to connect different ideas and concepts within a given theme, as well as their overall comprehension and interpretation skills. The results of the test can provide valuable insights into an individual's cognitive abilities, creativity, and critical thinking skills
Deep Behavioral Phenotyping in Systems Neuroscience for Functional Atlasing a...Ana Luísa Pinho
Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) provides means to characterize brain activations in response to behavior. However, cognitive neuroscience has been limited to group-level effects referring to the performance of specific tasks. To obtain the functional profile of elementary cognitive mechanisms, the combination of brain responses to many tasks is required. Yet, to date, both structural atlases and parcellation-based activations do not fully account for cognitive function and still present several limitations. Further, they do not adapt overall to individual characteristics. In this talk, I will give an account of deep-behavioral phenotyping strategies, namely data-driven methods in large task-fMRI datasets, to optimize functional brain-data collection and improve inference of effects-of-interest related to mental processes. Key to this approach is the employment of fast multi-functional paradigms rich on features that can be well parametrized and, consequently, facilitate the creation of psycho-physiological constructs to be modelled with imaging data. Particular emphasis will be given to music stimuli when studying high-order cognitive mechanisms, due to their ecological nature and quality to enable complex behavior compounded by discrete entities. I will also discuss how deep-behavioral phenotyping and individualized models applied to neuroimaging data can better account for the subject-specific organization of domain-general cognitive systems in the human brain. Finally, the accumulation of functional brain signatures brings the possibility to clarify relationships among tasks and create a univocal link between brain systems and mental functions through: (1) the development of ontologies proposing an organization of cognitive processes; and (2) brain-network taxonomies describing functional specialization. To this end, tools to improve commensurability in cognitive science are necessary, such as public repositories, ontology-based platforms and automated meta-analysis tools. I will thus discuss some brain-atlasing resources currently under development, and their applicability in cognitive as well as clinical neuroscience.
This presentation explores a brief idea about the structural and functional attributes of nucleotides, the structure and function of genetic materials along with the impact of UV rays and pH upon them.
ESPP presentation to EU Waste Water Network, 4th June 2024 “EU policies driving nutrient removal and recycling
and the revised UWWTD (Urban Waste Water Treatment Directive)”
Phenomics assisted breeding in crop improvementIshaGoswami9
As the population is increasing and will reach about 9 billion upto 2050. Also due to climate change, it is difficult to meet the food requirement of such a large population. Facing the challenges presented by resource shortages, climate
change, and increasing global population, crop yield and quality need to be improved in a sustainable way over the coming decades. Genetic improvement by breeding is the best way to increase crop productivity. With the rapid progression of functional
genomics, an increasing number of crop genomes have been sequenced and dozens of genes influencing key agronomic traits have been identified. However, current genome sequence information has not been adequately exploited for understanding
the complex characteristics of multiple gene, owing to a lack of crop phenotypic data. Efficient, automatic, and accurate technologies and platforms that can capture phenotypic data that can
be linked to genomics information for crop improvement at all growth stages have become as important as genotyping. Thus,
high-throughput phenotyping has become the major bottleneck restricting crop breeding. Plant phenomics has been defined as the high-throughput, accurate acquisition and analysis of multi-dimensional phenotypes
during crop growing stages at the organism level, including the cell, tissue, organ, individual plant, plot, and field levels. With the rapid development of novel sensors, imaging technology,
and analysis methods, numerous infrastructure platforms have been developed for phenotyping.
The binding of cosmological structures by massless topological defectsSérgio Sacani
Assuming spherical symmetry and weak field, it is shown that if one solves the Poisson equation or the Einstein field
equations sourced by a topological defect, i.e. a singularity of a very specific form, the result is a localized gravitational
field capable of driving flat rotation (i.e. Keplerian circular orbits at a constant speed for all radii) of test masses on a thin
spherical shell without any underlying mass. Moreover, a large-scale structure which exploits this solution by assembling
concentrically a number of such topological defects can establish a flat stellar or galactic rotation curve, and can also deflect
light in the same manner as an equipotential (isothermal) sphere. Thus, the need for dark matter or modified gravity theory is
mitigated, at least in part.
When I was asked to give a companion lecture in support of ‘The Philosophy of Science’ (https://shorturl.at/4pUXz) I decided not to walk through the detail of the many methodologies in order of use. Instead, I chose to employ a long standing, and ongoing, scientific development as an exemplar. And so, I chose the ever evolving story of Thermodynamics as a scientific investigation at its best.
Conducted over a period of >200 years, Thermodynamics R&D, and application, benefitted from the highest levels of professionalism, collaboration, and technical thoroughness. New layers of application, methodology, and practice were made possible by the progressive advance of technology. In turn, this has seen measurement and modelling accuracy continually improved at a micro and macro level.
Perhaps most importantly, Thermodynamics rapidly became a primary tool in the advance of applied science/engineering/technology, spanning micro-tech, to aerospace and cosmology. I can think of no better a story to illustrate the breadth of scientific methodologies and applications at their best.
The use of Nauplii and metanauplii artemia in aquaculture (brine shrimp).pptxMAGOTI ERNEST
Although Artemia has been known to man for centuries, its use as a food for the culture of larval organisms apparently began only in the 1930s, when several investigators found that it made an excellent food for newly hatched fish larvae (Litvinenko et al., 2023). As aquaculture developed in the 1960s and ‘70s, the use of Artemia also became more widespread, due both to its convenience and to its nutritional value for larval organisms (Arenas-Pardo et al., 2024). The fact that Artemia dormant cysts can be stored for long periods in cans, and then used as an off-the-shelf food requiring only 24 h of incubation makes them the most convenient, least labor-intensive, live food available for aquaculture (Sorgeloos & Roubach, 2021). The nutritional value of Artemia, especially for marine organisms, is not constant, but varies both geographically and temporally. During the last decade, however, both the causes of Artemia nutritional variability and methods to improve poorquality Artemia have been identified (Loufi et al., 2024).
Brine shrimp (Artemia spp.) are used in marine aquaculture worldwide. Annually, more than 2,000 metric tons of dry cysts are used for cultivation of fish, crustacean, and shellfish larva. Brine shrimp are important to aquaculture because newly hatched brine shrimp nauplii (larvae) provide a food source for many fish fry (Mozanzadeh et al., 2021). Culture and harvesting of brine shrimp eggs represents another aspect of the aquaculture industry. Nauplii and metanauplii of Artemia, commonly known as brine shrimp, play a crucial role in aquaculture due to their nutritional value and suitability as live feed for many aquatic species, particularly in larval stages (Sorgeloos & Roubach, 2021).
12. Hansen
But suggesting that renewables will let us
phase rapidly off fossil fuels in the United
States, China, India, or the world as a
whole is almost the equivalent of believing
in the Easter Bunny and Tooth Fairy…
[reliance on soft renewables] is much less
than worthless. If you drink the kool-aid
represented in the right part of Fig. 7
[Amory Lovins' soft renewables fantasy],
you are a big part of the problem. The
problem is that, by drinking the kool-aid,
you are also pouring it down the throats of
my dear grandchildren and yours. The
tragedy in doing so is much greater than
that of Jim Jones’ gullible followers, who
forced their children to drink his kool-aid.
All life will bear the consequences.
13. IPCC Press Release
May 15, 2011: Close to 80 percent of the world‘s
energy supply could be met by renewables by
mid-century if backed by the right enabling public
policies a new report shows.
May 30, 2011:
14. The “Greenpeace Karaoke”
80% figure came from a Greenpeace scenario
IPCC did not do any independent due diligence
on the Greenpeace scenario
A Greenpeace employee was a Lead Author of
the chapter assessing the Greenpeace scenario.
15. Even some greens were offended
Economist: His [McIntyre’s] desire for solid, honest answers is plainly
one to be shared. But the authors of the IPCC chapter involved declined
to evaluate the scenarios they looked at in terms of whether they
thought they were plausible, let alone likely. Ottmar Edenhofer, a
German economist who was one of those in overall charge of the
report, gives the impression that he would have welcomed a more
critical approach from his colleagues; but there is no mechanism
by which the people in charge can force an author team to do more,
or other, than it wants to.
16. SREX: MANAGING THE RISKS OF EXTREME EVENTS AND
DISASTERS TO ADVANCE CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION
Chapter 1 Climate Change: New Dimensions in
Disaster Risk, Exposure, Vulnerability, and
Resilience
Chapter 2 Determinants of Risk: Exposure and
Vulnerability
Chapter 3 Changes in Climate Extremes and their
Impacts on the Natural Physical Environment
Chapter 4 Changes in Impacts of Climate
Extremes: Human Systems and Ecosystems
Chapter 5 Managing the Risks from Climate
Extremes at the Local Level
Chapter 6 National Systems for Managing the
Risks from Climate Extremes and Disasters
Chapter 7 Managing the Risks: International Level
and Integration across Scales
Chapter 8 Toward a Sustainable and Resilient
Future
Chapter 9 Case Studies
17. Field’s 2011 Disasters
The US experienced 14 billion-
dollar disasters in 2011, a
record that far surpasses the
previous maximum of 9 (NOAA
2012a). The 2011 disasters
included a blizzard, tornadoes,
floods, severe weather, a
hurricane, a tropical storm,
drought and heat wave, and
wildfires. In 2012, we have
already experienced horrifying
wildfires, a powerful windstorm
that hit Washington DC, heat
waves in much of the country,
and a massive drought currently
affecting more of the US than
any drought since 1988.
Climate change is shifting the
risk of hitting an extreme.
2011 Disaster NOAA
Count
Blizzard 1
Tornado 7
Drought/Heat
Wave
1
Flooding 2
Hurricane/Tropical
Storm
2
Wildfires 1
TOTAL 14
18. Chapter 5- Managing the Risks from Climate Extremes at
the Local Level
Disasters are most acutely experienced at the
local level (high agreement, robust evidence).
Sustainable land management is an effective
disaster risk reduction tool (high agreement,
robust evidence).
Humanitarian relief is often required when
disaster risk reduction measures are absent
or inadequate (high agreement, robust
evidence).
19. SREX Case Studies
If there is heavy snowfall, the
event is known as a white dzud,
conversely if no snow falls, a
black dzud occurs, which results
in a lack of drinking water for
herds. The trampling of plants
by passing livestock migrating to
better pasture or too high a
grazing pressure leads to a hoof
dzud, and a warm spell after
heavy snowfall resulting in an
icy crust cover on short grass
blocking livestock grazing
causes an iron dzud.
Disaster Case
Heat Wave Europe 2003, 2006
Wildfires Australia 2009
Drought Syria 2007-2010
Dzud Mongolia 2002, 2010
Cyclones Bangladesh, Myanmar,
Central America
Floods Mozambique 2000
Cholera Zimbabwe
20. Climate Extremes vs Disasters
Climate Extreme ≠ Disaster
To what extent do the “disasters” result
from poverty and/or inadequate
preparation?
To what extent do weather-related
disasters result merely from increasing
exposure of people and economic assets
as opposed to climate change?
The 1936 and 2012 U.S. droughts and
heat waves were very similar as climate
extremes, but the impacts were very
different.
21. Tornados
SREX: the absence of trends in impacts attributable to
natural or anthropogenic climate change holds for tropical
and extratropical storms and tornados.
Tornado occurrence since 1950 in the United States, for
instance, displays an increasing trend that mainly reflects
increased population density and increased numbers of
people in remote areas.
Over North America, a declining trend in 50th and 90th
percentile wind speeds has been reported for much of the
United States over 1973 to 2005 and in 10-m hourly wind
data over 1953-2006 over western and most of southern
Canada .
There is low confidence in projections of small-scale
phenomena such as tornadoes because competing physical
processes may affect future trends and because climate
models do not simulate such phenomena.
An increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations
may cause some of the atmospheric conditions conducive to
tornadoes such as atmospheric instability to increase due to
increasing temperature and humidity, while others such as
vertical shear to decrease due to a reduced pole-to-equator
temperature gradient (Diffenbaugh et al., 2008).
Field 2012: Specifically, the IPCC (IPCC 2012) did not
identify a trend or express confidence in projections
concerning tornadoes and other small-area events.
22. Hurricanes
SREX: Low confidence in any observed
long-term (i.e., 40 years or more)
increases in tropical cyclone activity, after
accounting for past changes in observing
capabilities … normalized records of total
economic and insured losses for the same
series of hurricanes exhibit no significant
trends in losses since 1900.
Likely that the global frequency of tropical
cyclones will either decrease or remain
essentially unchanged.
Case study pointed to disproportionately
high damages in South Asia, and to poor
relief organization in Myanmar
Field: “The evidence on hurricanes is
mixed.”
23. Floods
research subsequent to the AR4 stilldoes not show
clear and widespread evidence of climate-driven
observed changes in the magnitude or frequency of
floods at the global level based on instrumental
records, and there is thus low confidence regarding
the magnitude and frequency and even the sign of
these changes.
In the United States and Canada during the 20th
century and in the early 21st century, there is no
compelling evidence for climate-driven changes in
the magnitude or frequency of floods
absence of an attributable climate change signal in
losses also holds for flood losses
Although the damage caused by the 2011 floods on
the Chao Phraya river in Thailand was
unprecedented, the available data show that the
amount of rain that fell in the catchment area was
not very unusual. Other factors such as changes in
the hydrography and increased vulnerability were
therefore more important in setting the scale of the
disaster.
24. Wildfires
research subsequent to the AR4 stilldoes not show
clear and widespread evidence of climate-driven
observed changes in the magnitude or frequency of
floods at the global level based on instrumental
records, and there is thus low confidence regarding
the magnitude and frequency and even the sign of
these changes.
In the United States and Canada during the 20th
century and in the early 21st century, there is no
compelling evidence for climate-driven changes in
the magnitude or frequency of floods
absence of an attributable climate change signal in
losses also holds for flood losses
Although the damage caused by the 2011 floods on
the Chao Phraya river in Thailand was
unprecedented, the available data show that the
amount of rain that fell in the catchment area was
not very unusual. Other factors such as changes in
the hydrography and increased vulnerability were
therefore more important in setting the scale of the
disaster.
25. Heat Waves
Heat waves are
“urban”; droughts are
“rural”.
Temperatures in 2003
French heat wave
were over 35 deg C
for 11 days with 40
deg max
Beniston 2004: Basel
days above 30 deg C
in 1947 exceeded
2003 (49 vs 41)
26. 1936 North American Heat Wave
death toll exceeded 5,000
a strong upper-level ridge
locked itself over the
central American Plains.
On 5 July, Gann Valley SD
hit 120oF (48.9oC). On 6
July, Steele ND reached
121oF (49.4oC), the hottest
temperature ever recorded
in the US outside the
desert Southwest
In cities, people slept in the
streets
27. SREX on Heat Waves
“While heat waves are projected to increase in
intensity and duration, their net effect on human
health is uncertain, largely because of
uncertainties about the structure of cities in the
future, adaptation measures, and access to
cooling. Many cities have installed heat watch
warning systems. Several studies show that the
sensitivity of the population of large US cities to
extreme heat events has been declining over
time”
28. The 1743 Beijing Heat Wave
Temperature reached 43.1 on the 24th and 44.6 on the
25th before heat broke on the 26th. (French Jesuit
measurements from July 1743 to March 1746 on two
thermometers taken at 6.30 and 15.30). Beijing record
of 42.2 in 1999 comparable to 42.6 in 1942.
From July 13 onwards, the heat seemed insupportable
and the consternation was general at the sight of dead
people lying everywhere, mostly fat and poor humans.
They died suddenly and were found on roads., in
streets or in houses. .. Since July 14 until July 25, the
Great Mandarins counted 11,400 persons dead from
people in the city and in the suburbs of Beijing, all poor
people, like craftsmen or workers.
Gaoyi = with melting lead and tin at midday.
Shenze – it is so strong that trees seem to be burned to
such extent as to give off a scorched odor,,, the disaster
is unprecedented.
29. Drought (SREX)
Medium confidence in projected increase in duration and intensity of
droughts in some regions of the world, including southern Europe and
the Mediterranean region, central Europe, central North America,
Central America and Mexico, northeast Brazil, and southern Africa.
Overall low confidence elsewhere because of insufficient agreement of
projections.
For example, plausible explanations have been proposed for projections
of both a worsening drought and a substantial increase in rainfall in the
Sahara (Biasutti et al., 2009; Burke et al., 2010).
From a paleoclimate perspective recent droughts are not
unprecedented, with severe ‘megadroughts’ reported in the
paleoclimatic record for Europe, North America, and Australia. Recent
studies extend this observation to African and Indian droughts.
AR5 ZOD; “Overall, multiple studies suggest that current drought and
flood regimes are not unusual within the context of last 1000 years
Tom Wigley, 2003: (CG2- 682) Mike [Mann], Well put! By chance
SB03 may have got some of these precip things right, but we don't
want to give them any way to claim credit.
30. Paleodrought - Africa
SREX: There is medium confidence that
since the 1950s some regions of the world
have experienced a trend to more intense
and longer droughts, in particular in
southern Europe and West Africa
Shanahan 2009: More negative isotopic
values occur during intervals with high
precipitation rates. Shift in rainfall is
synchronous with a well-documented period
of extended drought in the Sahel region
SREX: At regional scales, there is little
consensus in GCM projections regarding the
sign of future change in monsoon
characteristics, such as circulation and
rainfall. For instance, while some models
project an intense drying of the Sahel under
a global warming scenario, others project an
intensification of the rains, and some project
more frequent extreme events (Cook and
Vizy, 2006).
31. Paleodrought - Asia
SREX: Documentary and geologic
evidence suggest that extended
intervals of drought associated to
weak ISM in the last 2 kyr were
synchronous across a large region of
Asia
SREX: There is low confidence in
projections of changes in monsoons
(rainfall, circulation), because there is
little consensus in climate models
regarding the sign of future change in
the monsoons.
However: SREX: A study of 19
CMIP3 global models reported a
projected increase in mean south
Asian summer monsoon
precipitation of 8%
32. North America
Top - Medieval trees
submerged in US mountain
lakes (Lake Tahoe)
demonstrate drier conditions
in the medieval period;
Middle – Cook’s
reconstruction from tree rings
shows medieval
megadroughts;
Bottom: change from saline
to fresh water in northern
Great Plains lakes in late
medieval period.
36. Crop Yields
rmally, the state of Nebraska
averages around 20 inches of
rainfall a year.
In 1930, Nebraska got 22 inches
of rain, and the state's corn crop
averaged 25 bushels per acre.
In 1934, Nebraska saw the
driest year on record with only
14.5 inches of rainfall. The
state's corn crop dropped even
more to only 6.2 bushels per
acre.
In other words, between 1930
and 1934 rainfall dropped 27.5
percent, and as a result corn
crop yields dropped over 75
percent.
37. Increasing Exposure
On a global scale, annual material damage from large weather and
climate events has been found to have increased eight-fold between the
1960s and the 1990s, while the insured damage has been found to have
increased by 17-fold in the same interval, in inflation-adjusted monetary
units (Mechler and Kundzewicz, 2010). Between 1980 and 2004, the
total costs of extreme weather events totaled US$ 1.4 trillion, of which
only one-quarter was insured (Mills, 2005).
Most studies of long-term disaster loss records attribute these increases in
losses to increasing exposure of people and assets in at-risk areas (Miller et al.,
2008; Bouwer, 2011), and to underlying societal trends – demographic,
economic, political, and social – that shape vulnerability to impacts (Pielke Jr. et
al., 2005; Bouwer et al., 2007).
ncreasing exposure of people and economic assets has been the major
cause of long-term increases in economic losses from weather- and
climate-related disasters (high confidence).
38. China
In 2012, Chinese
emissions will be double
U.S. emissions
In the past 5-6 years,
China’s emissions have
increased by an amount
equal to US’s entire
emissions
US emissions have had
negligible trend over the
past 20 years and may
revert to 1990 levels this
year. CO2 Emissions. Red – China.
Blue U.S.
39. 39
The Climate Year in Review:
a new focus on extremes
Stephen McIntyre
climateaudit.org
Toronto Ontario
London, England
August 16, 2012
41. ndia’s emissions rose by 140 Mt, or 8.7%, moving it ahead of Russia to
become the fourth largest emitter behind China, the United States, and
the European Union. Despite these increases, per-capita CO2 emissions
in China and India still remain just 63% and 15% of the OECD average
respectively.
CO2 emissions in the United States in 2011 fell by 92 Mt, or 1.7%,
primarily due to ongoing switching from coal to natural gas in power
generation and an exceptionally mild winter, which reduced the demand
for space heating. US emissions have now fallen by 430 Mt (7.7%)
since 2006, the largest reduction of all countries or regions. This
development has arisen from lower oil use in the transport sector (linked
to efficiency improvements, higher oil prices and the economic downturn
which has cut vehicle miles travelled) and a substantial shift from coal to
gas in the power sector. CO2 emissions in the EU in 2011 were lower by
69 Mt, or 1.9%, as sluggish economic growth cut industrial production
and a relatively warm winter reduced heating needs. By contrast,
Japan’s emissions increased by 28 Mt, or 2.4%, as a result of a
substantial increase in the use of fossil fuels in power generation post-
Fukushima.
42. Heat-related deaths. 53% increase in ambulance
callouts;
Cropping non-viable at dry margins though yeidl
increases from CO2
Wildfires
Storm surges
43.
44. Box 4-1 | Evolution of Climate, Exposure, and
Vulnerability – The Melbourne Fires, 7
February 2009
Box 4-2 | Observed and Projected Trends in
Human Exposure: Tropical Cyclones and
Floods. However, trends in the population
exposed to these hazards
are an important factor. Population projections in
tropical cyclone areas and flood-prone areas
imply that impacts will almost certainly
continue to increase based on this factor alone.
46. map
AR4 trend in precipitation
1901-2000
AR4 projected change in
precipitstion mm/day.
47. Interest in Global Warming
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/
2012/07/globalwarming_heatwave.png
48. 6- National Systems for Managing the Risks from Climate
Extremes and Disasters
National systems are at the core of countries’
capacity to meet the challenges of observed and
projected trends in exposure, vulnerability, and
weather and climate extremes (high agreement,
robust evidence).
The ability of governments to implement disaster
risk management responsibilities differs
significantly across countries, depending on their
capacity and resource constraints (high
agreement, robust evidence).
Insurance-related instruments are key
mechanisms for helping households, business,
and governments absorb the losses from
disasters; but their uptake is unequally distributed
across regions and hazards, and often public-
private partnerships are required (high
agreement, robust evidence).
49. 7- Managing the Risks: International Level and Integration
across Scales
The international community has accumulated substantial
experience in providing help for disasters and risk
management in the context of localized and short-term
events associated with climate variability and extremes.
There are two main mechanisms at the international level
that are purpose-built and dedicated to disaster risk
management and climate change adaptation. These are the
United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction
(UNISDR) and the United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change (UNFCCC), in particular in its adaptation
components.
International action on disaster risk reduction and climate
change adaptation can be motivated both by national
interests and a concern for the common (global) public
good.
Expanded international financial support for climate change
adaptation as specified in the Cancun Agreements of 2010
and the Climate Change Green Fund will facilitate and
strengthen disaster risk management (medium confidence).
50. Chapter 4
Extreme impacts can result from extreme weather and climate events, but can also
occur without extreme events
Economic losses from weather- and climate-related disasters have increased, but with
large spatial and interannual variability (high confidence, based on high agreement,
medium evidence).
Economic, including insured, disaster losses associated with weather, climate, and
geophysical events are higher in developed countries. Fatality rates and economic
losses expressed as a proportion of gross domestic product (GDP) are higher in
developing countries (high confidence).
Increasing exposure of people and economic assets has been the major cause of long-
term increases in economic losses from weather- and climate-related disasters (high
confidence). Long-term trends in economic disaster losses adjusted for wealth and
population increases have not been attributed to climate change, but a role for climate
change has not been excluded (high agreement, medium evidence).
In much of the developed world, societies are aging and hence can be more vulnerable
to climate extremes, such as heat waves.
Transportation, infrastructure, water, and tourism are sectors sensitive to climate
extremes.
Agriculture is also an economic sector exposed and vulnerable to climate extremes.
The economies of many developing countries rely heavily on agriculture, dominated by
small-scale and subsistence farming, and livelihoods in this sector are especially exposed to
climate extremes.
Increases in exposure will result in higher direct economic losses from tropical
cyclones. Losses will depend on future changes in tropical cyclone frequency and
51. Selling of Climate Extremes
My testimony today will address the state of scientific
knowledge concerning three key points.
1) Overwhelming evidence establishes that climate
change is real
2) Strong evidence indicates that some kinds of climate
extremes are already changing
3) Climate change leads to changes in the risk of extreme
events that can lead to disasters
As the US copes with the aftermath of last year’s record-
breaking series of 14 billion-dollar climate-related disasters
and this year’s massive wildfires and storms, it is critical to
understand that the link between climate change and the
kinds of extremes that lead to disasters is clear.
Overwhelming evidence supports the conclusion in the
latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change that “A changing climate leads to changes in the
frequency, intensity, spatial extent, duration, and timing of
extreme weather and climate events, and can result in
unprecedented extreme weather and climate events.”
(IPCC 2012).
Based on the analysis of historical records since 1950, the
report identified trends of increasing extreme hot
temperatures, intense precipitation, and extreme high sea
levels.
Increasing exposure of people and economic assets has
been the major cause of long-term increases in economic
losses from weather- and climate-related disasters (high
confidence).
52. Drought Cases
SREX – Syria 2007-2010 : Of
the farmers who depended on
rain-fed production, most
suffered complete or near-
total loss of crops.
Approximately 70% of the
200,000 affected farmers in
the rainfed areas have
produced minimal to no yields
because seeds were not
planted due to poor soil
moisture conditions or failed
germination.
USA 2012. Andrew Weaver:
“It's so extraordinarily unlikely
that it has to be due to global
warming,