1. The climate is changing due to human-induced warming and the impacts will continue into the future. The ocean has absorbed over 90% of the increased heat in the Earth system since 1955. 2. Global sea levels have risen significantly since 1901 and will continue to rise more rapidly throughout the 21st century due to thermal expansion and melting ice sheets and glaciers. Regional variations will occur. 3. Impacts on Australian seaports will mainly come from increased extreme events like heatwaves, floods, and cyclones, which can damage infrastructure and disrupt operations, as seen in recent events. Port resilience and adaptation strategies are needed.

1. Climate change and sea-level rise:
seaports, security and stresses
Jean Palutikof
National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility
(with thanks to RMIT University – Jane Mullett and
Darryn McEvoy for information on their Seaports project)

2. NCCARF: who we are, what we do
• Set up by the Federal Government in
2008 to provide decision makers with the
knowledge and capacity to effectively
respond to climate change impacts
• Based at Griffith University, Gold Coast
• About to embark on a second phase, with
an emphasis on working with local
governments in the coastal zone

3. What is the IPCC?
• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change
• Set up by the UN to provide climate
information to underpin negotiations on
greenhouse gas emissions reduction
• Assesses the science on a cycle of around
5-6 yrs – Fifth Assessment currently being
completed
• An elaborate process leads to government
‘accepting’ scientific assessments

4. Seaports, security and stresses
Five messages:
First human-induced climate change
Second sea levels – what’s happening
Third impacts in Australia: seaports
Fourth impacts overseas: security
Fifth: climate change and other stresses

5. 1. The climate is changing and
will continue to change
Climatic Research Unit, UEA

6. Atmospheric warming is almost everywhere
we have records, greatest over continents

7. Has warming stopped since 1998?
• World Ocean Heat Content 1955-2010 [Levitus, 2013]

8. The ocean accounts for ~90% of heat
absorbed by the Earth 1955-2012
(1022 J) Levitus, 2013

9. Climate change will continue into
the future

10. 2. Global sea level is rising and
will continue to rise
The rate of sea level rise since the mid-19th century has been larger than the
mean rate during the previous two millennia (high confidence). Over the period
1901 to 2010, global mean sea level rose by 0.19 [0.17 to 0.21] m (IPCC WGI AR5)

12. Future sea-level rise
Global mean sea level will continue to rise during the 21st century, and
at a faster rate than observed during 1971 to 2010 due to increased
ocean warming and increased loss of mass from glaciers and ice
sheets.
Figure takes
into account
thermal
expansion,
glacier and ice
sheet melting
(Greenland &
Antarctica)
IPCC WGI AR5

13. Regional sea-level change by end 21st century
Causes: Changes in wind and air pressure
Air-sea heat and freshwater fluxes
Ocean currents
Movements of the land and sea floor
Changes in gravity

14. Other oceanic effects
• Ocean acidification
– Affects calcification amongst shell-forming species
• Ocean warming
• Wind-wave conditions in the open ocean
• Storm surge and flood in the coastal zone
– Rule of thumb:
• 0.1m rise in sea level increases the frequency of flooding
by approximately a factor of 3
• The effect is multiplicative
• Increase of 0.5m will increase the frequency of flooding by
a factor of approximately 300; 1:100 year event will occur
several times a year
ACE CRC (2012) Report Card: Sea-Level Rise 2012 p19 www.ipcc.ch Chapter 13 WGI

15. 3. Impacts in Australia will be mainly from
extreme events
A changing climate leads to changes in the frequency,
intensity, spatial extent, duration, and timing of extreme
weather and climate events. IPCC SREX 2012
• Heatwaves –number, duration, intensity will increase -
impacts on outdoor work conditions (high confidence)
• Drought in southern Australia
• Increased flood events
• Possibility that cyclone tracks will move further south
2009 heatwave SE Australia Port of Melbourne tarmac melted
2010 - 2011 floods
Queensland
Gladstone Ports coal supply
interrupted Port of Brisbane shut
2011 flash flooding NSW Port Botany operations interrupted
Observed
impacts on
seaports:

16. Enhancing the resilience of seaports to
a changing climate project
RMIT University©2013 16
www.nccarf.edu.au

17. RMIT University©2013
Gladstone
• Bulk
- Coal
- Liquids
- Minerals
Sydney
• Containers
• Liquids
• Mixed trade
Port Kembla
• Mixed
-Agriculture
- Liquids
-Containers
- Vehicles
(RO/RO)
17
Port case studies

18. Integrated climate risk assessment
hybrid vulnerability / risk management approach

19. Ports: key messages
• Ports need to work in partnership with other logistics providers and
local/state/national governments
• Government regulation is necessary to support the process
(public/private mix of actors)
• Communication of the climate science is still an issue, apart from
sea level rise which is well understood
• Collection and analysis of data is important
• There are many current opportunities to build in incremental
adaptation, but transformational adaptation is still a bridge too far.
• Low probability-high impact climate risks need to be investigated
further
• Just-in-time management leaves no room to move – pressure on
productivity gains at a time when there is an increase in dangerous
weather situations
• Short term versus the long term (room to move)
• Best practice builds adaptive capacity
19
Pasha Bulker cargo ship off Newcastle
Source: The Age, 9/6/07

20. 4. The main impacts for Australia will
come from what happens overseas
• Australia is a rich, well-educated
democratic society with high adaptive
capacity
• There are three areas where what
happens elsewhere will have impacts
– Trade
– Security
– Aid

21. Trade: Global food trade and food
prices are impacted by climate
• Why does it matter for Australia?
– Three-quarters of Australia’s agricultural
production is exported in non-drought years
– Australia may benefit if other food producers
experience adverse climate change
– Conversely, it may be faced by rising global
prices and diminishing national supply
– Security implications – inflation in food
prices triggered +60 riots worldwide 2007-9

22. Global wheat prices [www.indexmundi.cpm]
Close relationship with El Niño events
Often a forecast of an El Niño is sufficient to cause prices to rise
Good news: nations have learned to maintain adequate stocks of
grain, acting as a damper on prices – adaptation can and does
occur
1996: Drought in US
Mid-West, pessimistic
forecasts, high global
demand
2008: Widespread
global drought, hike in
oil prices
2010: Drought in
Russia and ban on
exports

23. Security and migration
• Large-scale migration now
a permanent feature in
developing nations:
– rural to urban,
– to neighbouring countries,
– into Europe, North America
and Australasia
• Climate change and SLR
can exacerbate this trend
– Small low-lying islands
– Persistent extremes:
drought, flood
• Does climate change have
the potential to cause
conflict and war?
Sub-Saharan Africa
remittances

24. 5. At present, the greatest risks are from
climate change acting together with, or
exacerbating, other stresses
• War
• Poor and corrupt governments and institutions
• Societies weakened by poverty, ill-health and
out-migration
Without these stresses, societies have the
capacity and will to manage climate change
An exception is small low-lying island states
where sea-level rise exceeds capacity to adapt.
More exceptions will emerge.

25. In conclusion – the five messages
1. The climate is changing and will continue to
change
2. Global sea level is rising and will continue to rise
3. Seaports: Impacts in Australia will be mainly from
extreme events
4. Security: The main impacts for Australia will
come from what happens overseas
5. Stresses: At present, the greatest risks are from
climate change acting together with, or
exacerbating, other stresses