This document summarizes an integrated surface water and groundwater model developed for the MacKay River watershed in Alberta, Canada to assess cumulative effects of oil sands operations on water resources. The model was calibrated against streamflow and groundwater level observations over a 38-year period. Key features included a 400m groundwater grid, 200m surface hydrology grid, representation of geology, climate inputs, vegetation/wetlands, and frozen ground processes. The calibrated model will be used to simulate current and future conditions to evaluate sustainability.
Presented by Charlotte MacAlister, Birhanu Zemadim, Teklu Erkossa, Amare Haileslassie, Dan Fuka, Tammo Steenhuis, Solomon Seyoum, Holger Hoff, Kinde Getnet, and Nancy Johnson to the Nile Basin Development ChallengeScience and Reflection Workshop, Addis Ababa, 4-6 May 2011
The Vietnam National Mekong Committee conducted a Mekong Dam Study, the results of which were presented at the Greater Mekong Forum on Water, Food and Energy in Phnom Penh on Oct. 21, 2015. This presentation overviews their Modelling for the study.
The California Central Valley Groundwater-Surface Water Simulation Model (C2VSim) simulates the monthly response of the Central Valley’s groundwater and surface water flow system to historical stresses, and can also be used to simulate the response to projected future stresses. C2VSim contains monthly historical stream inflows, surface water diversions, precipitation, land use and crop acreages from October 1921 through September 2009. The model dynamically calculates crop water demands, allocates contributions from precipitation, soil moisture and surface water diversions, and calculates the groundwater pumpage required to meet the remaining demand.
This study explains the use of remote sensing data for spatially distributed hydrological modeling using the MIKE-SHE software used in Tarim River Basin CHINA
Understanding Who is AT RISK - Flood extent modellingAlex Nwoko
Understanding Flood Risk Using Surface Flood Extent Modelling. This study used ArcMap and HECRAS to evaluate flood risk exposure of River Wansbeck in Morpeth, UK.
Modeling the Effects of Sea Level Rise on Coastal Wetlands
Marc Carullo, GIS/Environmental Analyst, Massachusetts Office of Coastal Zone Management (CZM)
Presented by Vladimir Smakhtin at the Ministry of Water Resources, New Delhi, India, November 4, 2014.
The flows of India’s rivers are increasingly being modified by dams and weirs and abstractions for agriculture and urban use. These interventions have caused significant alteration of flow regimes mainly by reducing total flow and affecting its variability and seasonality. An Environmental Flow (EF) is the water regime provided within a river, wetland or coastal zone to maintain ecosystems and their benefits. Environmental Flows describe the quantity, quality and timing of water flows required to sustain freshwater and estuarine ecosystems and the human livelihoods and well-being that depend on these ecosystems. This presentation looks at how the EF approach has been tested in India and describes a project to apply EF methodology to the upper Ganga.
Numerical modeling in support of the characterization and remediation of impacted sediments can be a challenging task, particularly in environments where multiple physical processes influence sediment fate and transport. The interaction of various controls is particularly complex in estuarine settings, where riverine input, water levels, waves, and other coastal processes combine to create a seasonally dynamic environment. Modeling of such environments requires a comprehensive and integrated approach such that the effects of each process can be assessed individually, as these processes can be allowed to interact to reproduce the natural environment as faithfully as possible
Approach and Activities
This contribution describes the development and calibration of an integrated Delft3D numerical model that includes flow, sediment transport, wave processes, and vegetation. The model boundary conditions are based on data collected during a comprehensive field program. Field data were also used to calibrate various model input parameters (such as bed and vegetation roughness). The model was used to understand erosion and deposition during both low and high flow regimes, and thus to aid in understanding important controls on sedimentary dynamics during these predominant regimes.
Results and Lessons Learned
The integrated numerical model predictions capture important sedimentation, erosion, velocity, and water level patterns. Model predictions indicate that during periods of low riverine input, velocity patterns and sediment transport associated with periodic water level changes dominate. During riverine flood conditions flow and sedimentation patterns are controlled by the river itself. Integrated modeling of this setting, including calibration to field data provides a valuable tool for assessment of future conditions, and thus for remediating impacted sediments.
Characterization and the Kinetics of drying at the drying oven and with micro...Open Access Research Paper
The objective of this work is to contribute to valorization de Nephelium lappaceum by the characterization of kinetics of drying of seeds of Nephelium lappaceum. The seeds were dehydrated until a constant mass respectively in a drying oven and a microwawe oven. The temperatures and the powers of drying are respectively: 50, 60 and 70°C and 140, 280 and 420 W. The results show that the curves of drying of seeds of Nephelium lappaceum do not present a phase of constant kinetics. The coefficients of diffusion vary between 2.09.10-8 to 2.98. 10-8m-2/s in the interval of 50°C at 70°C and between 4.83×10-07 at 9.04×10-07 m-8/s for the powers going of 140 W with 420 W the relation between Arrhenius and a value of energy of activation of 16.49 kJ. mol-1 expressed the effect of the temperature on effective diffusivity.
"Understanding the Carbon Cycle: Processes, Human Impacts, and Strategies for...MMariSelvam4
The carbon cycle is a critical component of Earth's environmental system, governing the movement and transformation of carbon through various reservoirs, including the atmosphere, oceans, soil, and living organisms. This complex cycle involves several key processes such as photosynthesis, respiration, decomposition, and carbon sequestration, each contributing to the regulation of carbon levels on the planet.
Human activities, particularly fossil fuel combustion and deforestation, have significantly altered the natural carbon cycle, leading to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and driving climate change. Understanding the intricacies of the carbon cycle is essential for assessing the impacts of these changes and developing effective mitigation strategies.
By studying the carbon cycle, scientists can identify carbon sources and sinks, measure carbon fluxes, and predict future trends. This knowledge is crucial for crafting policies aimed at reducing carbon emissions, enhancing carbon storage, and promoting sustainable practices. The carbon cycle's interplay with climate systems, ecosystems, and human activities underscores its importance in maintaining a stable and healthy planet.
In-depth exploration of the carbon cycle reveals the delicate balance required to sustain life and the urgent need to address anthropogenic influences. Through research, education, and policy, we can work towards restoring equilibrium in the carbon cycle and ensuring a sustainable future for generations to come.
Artificial Reefs by Kuddle Life Foundation - May 2024punit537210
Situated in Pondicherry, India, Kuddle Life Foundation is a charitable, non-profit and non-governmental organization (NGO) dedicated to improving the living standards of coastal communities and simultaneously placing a strong emphasis on the protection of marine ecosystems.
One of the key areas we work in is Artificial Reefs. This presentation captures our journey so far and our learnings. We hope you get as excited about marine conservation and artificial reefs as we are.
Please visit our website: https://kuddlelife.org
Our Instagram channel:
@kuddlelifefoundation
Our Linkedin Page:
https://www.linkedin.com/company/kuddlelifefoundation/
and write to us if you have any questions:
info@kuddlelife.org
Willie Nelson Net Worth: A Journey Through Music, Movies, and Business Venturesgreendigital
Willie Nelson is a name that resonates within the world of music and entertainment. Known for his unique voice, and masterful guitar skills. and an extraordinary career spanning several decades. Nelson has become a legend in the country music scene. But, his influence extends far beyond the realm of music. with ventures in acting, writing, activism, and business. This comprehensive article delves into Willie Nelson net worth. exploring the various facets of his career that have contributed to his large fortune.
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Introduction
Willie Nelson net worth is a testament to his enduring influence and success in many fields. Born on April 29, 1933, in Abbott, Texas. Nelson's journey from a humble beginning to becoming one of the most iconic figures in American music is nothing short of inspirational. His net worth, which estimated to be around $25 million as of 2024. reflects a career that is as diverse as it is prolific.
Early Life and Musical Beginnings
Humble Origins
Willie Hugh Nelson was born during the Great Depression. a time of significant economic hardship in the United States. Raised by his grandparents. Nelson found solace and inspiration in music from an early age. His grandmother taught him to play the guitar. setting the stage for what would become an illustrious career.
First Steps in Music
Nelson's initial foray into the music industry was fraught with challenges. He moved to Nashville, Tennessee, to pursue his dreams, but success did not come . Working as a songwriter, Nelson penned hits for other artists. which helped him gain a foothold in the competitive music scene. His songwriting skills contributed to his early earnings. laying the foundation for his net worth.
Rise to Stardom
Breakthrough Albums
The 1970s marked a turning point in Willie Nelson's career. His albums "Shotgun Willie" (1973), "Red Headed Stranger" (1975). and "Stardust" (1978) received critical acclaim and commercial success. These albums not only solidified his position in the country music genre. but also introduced his music to a broader audience. The success of these albums played a crucial role in boosting Willie Nelson net worth.
Iconic Songs
Willie Nelson net worth is also attributed to his extensive catalog of hit songs. Tracks like "Blue Eyes Crying in the Rain," "On the Road Again," and "Always on My Mind" have become timeless classics. These songs have not only earned Nelson large royalties but have also ensured his continued relevance in the music industry.
Acting and Film Career
Hollywood Ventures
In addition to his music career, Willie Nelson has also made a mark in Hollywood. His distinctive personality and on-screen presence have landed him roles in several films and television shows. Notable appearances include roles in "The Electric Horseman" (1979), "Honeysuckle Rose" (1980), and "Barbarosa" (1982). These acting gigs have added a significant amount to Willie Nelson net worth.
Television Appearances
Nelson's char
Micro RNA genes and their likely influence in rice (Oryza sativa L.) dynamic ...Open Access Research Paper
Micro RNAs (miRNAs) are small non-coding RNAs molecules having approximately 18-25 nucleotides, they are present in both plants and animals genomes. MiRNAs have diverse spatial expression patterns and regulate various developmental metabolisms, stress responses and other physiological processes. The dynamic gene expression playing major roles in phenotypic differences in organisms are believed to be controlled by miRNAs. Mutations in regions of regulatory factors, such as miRNA genes or transcription factors (TF) necessitated by dynamic environmental factors or pathogen infections, have tremendous effects on structure and expression of genes. The resultant novel gene products presents potential explanations for constant evolving desirable traits that have long been bred using conventional means, biotechnology or genetic engineering. Rice grain quality, yield, disease tolerance, climate-resilience and palatability properties are not exceptional to miRN Asmutations effects. There are new insights courtesy of high-throughput sequencing and improved proteomic techniques that organisms’ complexity and adaptations are highly contributed by miRNAs containing regulatory networks. This article aims to expound on how rice miRNAs could be driving evolution of traits and highlight the latest miRNA research progress. Moreover, the review accentuates miRNAs grey areas to be addressed and gives recommendations for further studies.
Diabetes is a rapidly and serious health problem in Pakistan. This chronic condition is associated with serious long-term complications, including higher risk of heart disease and stroke. Aggressive treatment of hypertension and hyperlipideamia can result in a substantial reduction in cardiovascular events in patients with diabetes 1. Consequently pharmacist-led diabetes cardiovascular risk (DCVR) clinics have been established in both primary and secondary care sites in NHS Lothian during the past five years. An audit of the pharmaceutical care delivery at the clinics was conducted in order to evaluate practice and to standardize the pharmacists’ documentation of outcomes. Pharmaceutical care issues (PCI) and patient details were collected both prospectively and retrospectively from three DCVR clinics. The PCI`s were categorized according to a triangularised system consisting of multiple categories. These were ‘checks’, ‘changes’ (‘change in drug therapy process’ and ‘change in drug therapy’), ‘drug therapy problems’ and ‘quality assurance descriptors’ (‘timer perspective’ and ‘degree of change’). A verified medication assessment tool (MAT) for patients with chronic cardiovascular disease was applied to the patients from one of the clinics. The tool was used to quantify PCI`s and pharmacist actions that were centered on implementing or enforcing clinical guideline standards. A database was developed to be used as an assessment tool and to standardize the documentation of achievement of outcomes. Feedback on the audit of the pharmaceutical care delivery and the database was received from the DCVR clinic pharmacist at a focus group meeting.
1. Assessing Cumulative Effects of SAGD
Operations in the Mackay Watershed
Dirk Kassenaar, E.J. Wexler, P.J. Thompson, M. Takeda
Earthfx Inc.
Watertech 2016
April 7, 2015
2. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Introduction
In-situ Steam Assisted Gravity
Drainage (SAGD) oil sand
operations require a source of fresh
water for steam injection.
Groundwater supply wells,
generally drawing from aquifers
above the oil production zone, are
a preferred source.
2- Introduction
From MEG Energy Corp.
3. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Study Objectives
In 2014, Earthfx Inc. was hired by the Cumulative Environmental Management
Association (CEMA) to answer the following question:
▪ Is there enough water in the Mackay watershed to sustain a responsible
level of development
Cumulative effects analysis requires the integrated assessment of:
▪ Multiple anthropogenic stresses:
• Numerous spatially distributed SW and GW diversions
• Land use change (land clearing, drill pads, roads, etc.)
▪ Intersecting effects on surface and groundwater systems:
• Changes in groundwater levels (drawdowns) in all aquifer systems
• Changes to frequency, duration and severity of low flow conditions
3- Introduction
4. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Study Area
MacKay River Watershed is
located immediately north-west of
Fort McMurrray, AB
▪ Includes Syncrude Mine site and
numerous SAGD operations
Watershed Area: 5,600 km2
Model Area: 7,900 km2
4- Summary of Model Development
Legend
Lake
Namur
Lake
5. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Study Approach
Step 1: Integrated Model Development and Calibration
▪ Model Development: Compile Geology, Hydrogeology, Climate, Hydrology, Hydraulics
▪ Model Calibration:
• Build and pre-calibrate the SW and GW submodels
• Complete the fully integrated model calibration: Full reconciliation of entire hydrologic cycle water budget
Step 2: Sustainability Assessment
▪ Define Assessment Criteria and Climate Period
• Define aquifer drawdown and streamflow impact sustainability thresholds
• Select a representative “surrogate” climate assessment period (25 years)
▪ Simulate Pre-development (Baseline), Current and Full Build conditions over the climate period
▪ Compare, on a daily basis, Current and Full-build conditions against Baseline
• Evaluate GW drawdowns and streamflow changes against Assessment Criteria
5- Introduction
6. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
MODELLING APPROACH
6- Modelling Approach
7. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Integrated Modelling Approach: Advantages
Study Approach: Fully integrated surface water and groundwater model
Better representation of:
▪ Groundwater recharge and
Dunnian GW feedback
▪ Streamflow and induced leakage
▪ SW/GW storage
▪ Cumulative effects of all SW and
GW diversions
Flux inputs and calibration targets
▪ Measured precipitation as input
▪ Calibration to total streamflow and
measured GW levels
7- Modelling Approach
8. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Selected Model: USGS GSFLOW
USGS integrated GW/SW model
▪ Based on MODFLOW-NWT and PRMS (Precipitation-Runoff Modelling System)
▪ Open-source, proven and very well documented
▪ Fully-distributed: Cell-based representation
▪ Excellent balance of hydrology, hydraulics and GW
8- Modelling Approach
9. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
SUMMARY OF MACKAY
MODEL DEVELOPMENT
9- Summary of Model Development
10. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Study Area Features
Topography (600 m of relief)
▪ Birch Mountains
▪ Thickwood Hills
Incised river and stream network
▪ MacKay River – main channel
▪ Dover and Dunkirk Tributaries
▪ Athabasca River: South and eastern boundary
Legend and Namur Lakes
▪ Plus over 100 other lakes in study area
Extensive muskeg and wetlands
Bedrock Channel Aquifers
▪ Key GW supply source for multiple projects
Anthropogenic Stresses
▪ Syncrude Mine
▪ SW and GW Diversions
10- Summary of Model Development
AMBI, 2013)
11. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
GSFLOW: Multi-Resolution
GSFLOW is unique in that the
resolution of the model can be
adjusted to match key features
11
Climate inputs
( 2.5 km cells)
Surface Hydrology/Soil Zone
( 200x200 m cells)
Sub-surface Hydrogeologic Layers
( 13 layers of 400x400 m cells)
Stream Network
Linear 1-D Channel segments
(4000 km of streams represented,
independent of grid resolution)
- Summary of Model Development
12. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Model Grid
Fully distributed model: Every
cell has unique properties
GW grid: 400 m by 400 m cells
▪ Selected to match assessment
averaging criteria (impact at 150 m
from a well) but avoid focus on
specific water users.
▪ Can be refined for future studies
SW Grid: 200x200 m cells
▪ Improved representation of overland
flow, wetlands, interflow and soil
zone processes and properties
Stream routing:
▪ All streams and rivers simulated
12- Summary of Model Development
400x400 m GW grid
13. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Geologic Setting
13- Summary of Model Development
Surficial Geology Bedrock Geology
Predominantly tills
and glaciolacustrine
deposits
Subcrop of units
that dip to the
southwest
14. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Geologic Information
14- Summary of Model Development
Primary sources for geologic
borehole data:
25,000 - Alberta Geological Survey
255 - Atlas (Western Canada
Sedimentary Basin)
Limited geologic data in Birch
Mountains and central portion of
study area
15. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Conceptual Stratigraphic Model
15- Summary of Model Development
After AGS Source: Andriashek and Atkinson, 2007
Empress Channel Sands:
Key water supply aquifer
16. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Hydrostrat. Layers
16- Summary of Model Development
19 layer strat. model used to
produce 17 layer hydrostrat.
model.
▪ Some units of similar hydraulic
properties were combined.
▪ McMurray Basal Sands added as
separate aquifer unit.
Model does not extend below
Prairie Fm. Aquiclude
▪ Assumed minimal communication
due to low vertical K of unit.
▪ Simulating higher salinities (>50,000
mg/L TDS) would require density
dependent groundwater flow.
Period Unit
Stratigraphic
Model
Unit
Hydrostratigraphic
Model
Quaternary
1 Late Lacustrine 1 Aquitard
2 Surface Sand 2 Aquifer
3 Grand Centre Till 3 Aquitard
4 Middle Sands 4 Aquifer
5 Intermediate Till 5 Aquitard
6 Empress Channel Sands 6 Aquifer
Cretaceous
7 Labiche Formation 7 Aquitard
8 Pelican/Viking Formation 8 Aquifer
9 Joli Fou Formation 9 Aquitard
10 Grand Rapids Formation 10 Aquifer
11 Clearwater Formation
11 Aquitard
12 Wabiskaw Formation
13
McMurray Formation
(includes Basal Sands)
12 Aquitard
13 Basal Sand Aquifer
Devonian
14 Winterburn Formation (not included)
15 Grosmont Formation 14 Aquifer
16 Lower Ireton Formation 15 Aquitard
17 Cooking Lake Formation 16 Aquifer
18 Beaverhill Lake Group 17 Aquitard
19
Watt Mountain Formation
(Top of Elk Point Group)
Base of Model
Prairie Formation
(not included)
Keg River Formation
Contact Rapids Formation
Laloche Formation
Precambrian
17. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
GW Level Data
803 wells with water level data
Well assigned to hydrostrat. units
based on screened intervals.
Limited long term temporal
monitoring data (GOWN)
17- Summary of Model Development
18. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Groundwater Submodel Calibration
18- Summary of Model Development
Unit
Number of
Wells
(n)
ME
(m)
MAE
(m)
RMSE
(m)
Range in
Observations
(m)
RMSE as
Percent of
Range
(%)
Overburden 236 -1.36 4.40 7.18 509.4 1.4%
Empress 58 -7.01 8.33 2.89 189.5 1.5%
Labiche 4 24.50 25.53 32.78 176.3 18.6%
Viking 42 -9.04 10.67 12.65 38.9 32.5%
Joli Fou 10 -5.24 9.44 10.46 28.5 36.8%
Grand Rapids 53 -8.45 8.58 11.58 94.7 12.2%
Clearwater 114 -5.55 8.97 12.06 188.6 6.4%
McMurray 71 0.56 11.47 19.50 279.7 7.0%
Cooking Lake 2 62.09 89.00 108.52 198.3 54.7%
Overall 590 -3.35 7.86 13.55 524.6 2.6%
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
200 300 400 500 600 700 800
Simulated(masl)
Observed (masl)
Overburden
Empress Fm.
Labiche Aquitard
Viking Aquifer
Joli Fou Aquitard
Grand Rapids Aquifer
Clearwater Aquitard
McMurray Aquifer/Aquitard
Cooking Lake Aquifer
1:1
Error Intervals (±10 m)
Steady-state submodel calibration.
Better calibration in aquifers where
data more plentiful.
19. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Hydrologic Submodel Development (PRMS)
Based on the USGS
Precipitation-Runoff Modeling
System (PRMS) code
Fully distributed implementation
200m x 200m cells (196,832
unique cell HRUs)
19- Summary of Model Development
In each unique cell:
20. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Climate Inputs
Precipitation and temperature
interpolated on a daily basis over a
2.5km x 2.5km grid
▪ Inverse distance squared weighting
25 year daily climate time series
input for each grid cell
20- Summary of Model Development
21. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Vegetative Cover Classes
26 wetland and vegetative cover classes
▪ 17 types of wetlands
Model parameters assigned by class:
▪ Seasonal Cover density
▪ Vegetation indices
▪ Soil zone properties
▪ Overland flow and shallow interflow parameters
21- Summary of Model Development
22. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Overland Flow
Overland flow and interflow simulated with a
topographically defined cascade network
200x200m cell representation
22- Summary of Model Development
23. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Lateral Flow Processes
23- Summary of Model Development
PRMS
Soil Zone
MODFLOW
Layer 1
MODFLOW
Layer 2
• Head Dependant
• Saturation Dependant
24. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Dunnian Flow Processes: SW/GW Feedback
24- Summary of Model Development
Groundwater feedback dominates in discharge areas, wetlands and shallow aquifers
▪ GW feedback in up to 60% of the watershed
Complex transient runoff and rejected recharge
▪ Occurs when the water table is at or near surface
▪ Spatially controlled: Tends to occur in stream valley areas
▪ Seasonally controlled: Tends to occur in spring when WT is high
GW discharge to the soil zone can become interflow or overland flow
Overland flow can re-infiltrate downslope: “3D recharge”
Unsaturated
zone
StreamStream
Gravity drainage
Recharge
Ground-water flow
25. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Frozen Ground
New frozen ground module developed for
this study
▪ GSFLOW is Open Source!
Based on a modified form of the Stefan
Equation
▪ Derived by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
Model code follows Emerson (1994)
25- Summary of Model Development
𝑋𝑓 =
86,400𝐾𝑓 𝐼𝑓
𝐿 + 𝐶 𝑇𝑎 +
𝐼𝑓
2𝑡
0.5
𝑋𝑓 = 𝑑𝑒𝑝𝑡ℎ 𝑜𝑓 𝑓𝑟𝑜𝑠𝑡
𝐾𝑓 = 𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑚𝑎𝑙 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑡𝑦
𝐼𝑓 = 𝑓𝑟𝑜𝑠𝑡 𝑖𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑥 𝑑𝑒𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑒 𝑑𝑎𝑦𝑠
𝐿 = 𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑛𝑡 ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑡
𝐶 = 𝑣𝑜𝑙𝑢𝑚𝑒𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑐 ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑡 𝑐𝑎𝑝𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦
𝑇𝑎 = 𝑚𝑒𝑎𝑛 𝑎𝑛𝑛𝑢𝑎𝑙 𝑠𝑜𝑖𝑙 𝑡𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑒
𝑡 = 𝑑𝑢𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑓𝑟𝑒𝑒𝑧𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑜𝑑
𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒
26. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Frozen Ground Response
Frozen soil dynamics affect both surface and subsurface processes:
▪ SW Runoff and Recharge: Enhanced runoff during spring freshet, no winter recharge
▪ GW Discharge: Significantly reduced winter discharge to streams and wetlands
26- Summary of Model Development
27. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Model Calibration and Validation
Calibrated then verified against over 38 year period
A range of hydroclimatic conditions simulated
27- Summary of Model Development
Validation Calibration
28. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Model Calibration and Validation
Hydrologic submodel and the final
integrated model were calibrated
against streamflow observations at 6
Water Survey (EC) and RAMP
stations
Historical observations at
discontinued stations were an
important source of insight
28- Summary of Model Development
29. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Model Calibration and Validation
Good match to streamflow
observations at study area gauges
Daily Nash-Sutcliffe 0.65
Monthly Nash-Sutcliffe 0.75
Good match to validation period:
Model has adequate predictive
power
29- Summary of Model Development
30. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Distributed Results
30- Summary of Model Development
31. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Distributed Results (GSFLOW)
31- Summary of Model Development
32. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
GSFLOW GW/SW Outputs
32- Summary of Model Development
April May
33. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
GW/SW Animation
Animation shows spring
melt and changes in GW
levels and streamflow
Click for Animation
33- Summary of Model Development
34. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
GSFLOW Outputs
Spring change in water
levels and streamflow
34- Summary of Model Development
35. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
GSFLOW Outputs
Spring change in water
levels and streamflow
Click for Animation
35- Summary of Model Development
36. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
GSFLOW GW/SW Water Budgets
Significant inter-annual and seasonal storage effects.
36- Summary of Model Development
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Avg
Flows(mm/month)
Monthly Average GW Inflows and Outflows - Pre-Development Conditions
Lake Seepage Stream Leakage Surf Leakage Recharge Wells Net Const. Head Net Storage
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Flows(mm/yr)
Simulated Inflows and Outflows by Water Year - Pre-Development Conditions
Lake Seepage Stream Leakage Surface Leakage Recharge Wells Net Const. Head Net Storage
37. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Model Development Conclusions
The Mackay GSFLOW model represents the complex transient surface
and subsurface process and their interaction and feedback
Extensive submodel development and integrated model calibration was
undertaken to all available data
Key aspect of the integrated model calibration:
▪ Directly measured flux input: Precipitation
▪ Directly observed calibration targets: Total measured streamflow and GW heads
▪ Overall water budget must balance – no water is gained or lost
37- Summary of Model Development
38. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
ASSESSMENT SCENARIOS:
CRITERIA AND RESULTS
38- Assessment Scenarios
39. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Diversion Scenarios
Baseline: No pumping
Current Conditions:
▪ 4 Operations including 11
pumped wells.
Full-Build Conditions:
▪ 14 Operations including 42
pumped wells.
39- Assessment Scenarios
Current
Operations
Current
Operations
Current
Operations
40. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Land Use Change
Processing facilities and well pads
▪ Assumed to be 100m by 100m gravel
pads spaced 500m on center
▪ Reduced ET, due to the loss of vegetation,
increased runoff
Full Build Scenario:
▪ Drill pads are estimated to cover 6% of
the planned project areas;
▪ Roads, pipelines, and facilities cover
another 4%.
40- Recommendations for Phase 3
41. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Assessment Climate Period
25 year period includes a range of hydroclimatic conditions
▪ Includes both wet years (1997) and drought years (1998-1999, 2009 and 2011).
▪ 5 year spin-up period before start of assessment
41
Surrogate Climate Period
- Assessment Scenarios
42. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
GW Sustainability Assessment Criteria
In summary, it was agreed that the sustainable drawdown is 50% of the available
drawdown in a confined aquifer.
▪ Threshold selection based on the Alberta Environment Water Conservation and Allocation Guideline for Oilfield
Injection (AENV, 2006)
▪ For unconfined aquifers, 66% of the average saturated thickness was used.
▪ Available drawdown based on average water level determined by 20 year baseline simulation.
Assessment Process: all three scenarios run using the same climate inputs
▪ Only difference is diversions and land use change
▪ Daily outputs for every model cell and stream reach saved for comparison
• Drawdown calculation
• Alberta Desktop Assessment
If, under Current or Full-build development conditions, drawdowns exceeded this
threshold on any particular day in a 20 year assessment simulation, the cumulative
diversion was considered locally unsustainable.
42- Assessment Scenarios
43. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Overburden Impacts
43- Assessment Scenarios
Overburden Aquifers
Layer 1 Drawdowns
Percent of Total
Available Drawdown
44. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Channel Aquifers
44- Assessment Scenarios
Empress Formation Aquifer
Layer 4 Drawdowns
Percent of Total
Available Drawdown
45. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Confined Aquifers
45- Assessment Scenarios
Viking/Pelican Aquifer
Layer 5 Drawdowns
Percent of Total
Available Drawdown
46. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Deep Aquifers
46- Assessment Scenarios
Grand Rapids Aquifer
Layer 8 Drawdowns
Percent of Total
Available Drawdown
47. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
GW Sustainability Assessment
Cumulative GW drawdowns are significant, in particular in the lower
highly confined aquifer units
▪ Offset by the fact that lower units have much greater available drawdown
On a watershed scale, GW drawdowns appear to broadly stabilize
within the 20 year period, suggesting sustainable water use
Localized zones where drawdown exceed 50% of total available
drawdown
47- Assessment Scenarios
48. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
SW Sustainability Assessment Criteria
Alberta Desktop Method:
▪ Simulated frequency-duration relationship is calculated for every reach under baseline conditions
▪ The discharge that is exceeded 80% of the time is the ecosystem baseflow (EBF) component.
ADM Criteria 1:
▪ No surface water diversions are allowed below the 80% EBF threshold
• No diversion allowed when flow is below the lowest flows that occur up to 20% of the time.
ADM Criteria 2:
▪ Above the 80% EBF threshold, up to 15% of the available flow can be diverted.
20 year Baseline simulation used to determine weekly EBF threshold in every stream reach
48- Assessment Scenarios
49. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
SW Sustainability Assessment Criteria
Frequency-duration relationship calculated in the watercourse in a
natural state.
EBF Weekly Threshold for Mackay River at Fort McKay:
49- Assessment Scenarios
50. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
SW Sustainability Assessment
Threshold for Mackay River at Fort McKay shown
▪ ADM Criteria 1 - fails for select days, as shown in red
▪ ADM Criteria 2 - never more than 15% diverted
Numerous other stream locations also assessed
50- Assessment Scenarios
51. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Local SW Effects
While the overall watershed
passes the ADM criteria at the
Mackay outfall point, local streams
fail the 15% ADM criteria
▪ i.e. GW diversions locally induce
leakage that exceeds 15% of the EBF
(ecological baseflow)
51- Assessment Scenarios
52. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Sustainability Assessment Conclusions
In summary, the analysis indicates that projected water use in the study area is broadly
sustainable, from both a groundwater and surface water aspect, on a watershed scale.
This conclusion is supported by two findings:
▪ Results indicate that drawdowns do not, on a watershed scale, appear to grow over time
▪ Accumulated streamflow losses do not exceed the 15% ADM threshold along the main channel of the Mackay
and Dover Rivers.
The results do indicate, however, that under the full build scenario, cumulative
groundwater diversions appeared to create unsustainable local impacts, as measured by
both the groundwater drawdown and ADM thresholds.
52- Assessment Scenarios
53. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Water Budget Comparisons
53- Assessment Scenarios
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Flows(mm/yr)
Simulated Inflows and Outflows by Water Year - Pre-Development Conditions
Lake Seepage Stream Leakage Surface Leakage Recharge Wells Net Const. Head Net Storage
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Flows(mm/yr)
Simulated Inflows and Outflows by Water Year - Full Build Conditions
Lake Seepage Stream Leakage Surface Leakage Recharge Wells Net Const. Head Net Storage
Pre-development shows how wet and dry years replenish and deplete storage (royal blue)
Full build scenario shows greater fluctuations in storage
54. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Water Budget Comparisons
Winter pumping depletes storage, replenished by April recharge.
54- Assessment Scenarios
Full-Build ConditionsBaseline Conditions
55. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Other Insights
Winter pumping under frozen ground
conditions depletes shallow aquifer storage
Baseflow discharge in May is reduced by
50% due to freshet replenishment of shallow
aquifer storage.
Understanding seasonal and inter-annual
storage is essential
55- Assessment Scenarios
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
AverageMonthlyGroundwaterDischargeto
Streams(mm/year)
Pre-Development
Full Build
Average Monthly GW
Discharge to Streams
56. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Overall Conclusions
56- Recommendations for Phase 3
Detailed, fully integrated SW/GW modelling can provide significant insight
into both cumulative effects and watershed function.
Numerous applications – Local impact assessment, water budgeting,
climate change, drought assessment, eco-hydrology and water
management.