A program logic outlines the theory of change that underpins a project by mapping out the pathway from project activities and outputs to short, intermediate, and long-term outcomes. It is developed using a backcasting process where stakeholders envision the desired long-term outcomes and work backwards to identify the prerequisites for achieving those outcomes. The program logic provides a roadmap for how the project will achieve its intended results through clearly connecting the planned work to the expected results.

1. Developing a Program Logic

2. What is a Program Logic?
A program logic is like a roadmap for a project
that sets out how a project will achieve its
desired outcomes.
YOUR
PLANNED
WORK
YOUR
INTENDED
RESULTS

3. Other terms you may use or see include:
– Outcome logic
– Outcome model
– Logic model
– Outcome hierarchy
The main thing to remember is that the program
logic outlines the theory of change (or theory of
action) that underpins your project
Program Logic

4. Theory of Change
This is the pathway to reaching your
destination.
For example, in order to be complete a project
evaluation, you need to learn about
evaluation (knowledge) and then undertake
an evaluation (practice) to reach the end goal.

5. The Process
Organise a
workshop with the
key stakeholders
involved in the
project
Identify the core
goal and objectives
of the project
Collectively
brainstorm the
theory of change
that leads to the
outcomes being
achieved

6. How to construct a program logic
Use a backcasting process, where you start by
envisioning the future state (i.e. the long-term
outcomes) and work backwards to identify
what needs to happen in order to create the
desired future.

7. Backcasting Example
LONG-TERM OUTCOME
Solar hot water
installed on all homes

8. Backcasting Example
LONG-TERM OUTCOME
Solar hot water
installed on all homes
INTERMEDIATE
OUTCOME
Increased uptake of
solar hot water

9. Backcasting Example
LONG-TERM OUTCOME
Solar hot water
installed on all homes
INTERMEDIATE
OUTCOME
Increased uptake of
solar hot water
SHORT-TERM OUTCOME
Increased knowledge of
benefits of solar hot
water
SHORT-TERM OUTCOME
Increased uptake of
financial incentives for
solar hot water

10. Backcasting Example
LONG-TERM OUTCOME
Solar hot water
installed on all homes
INTERMEDIATE
OUTCOME
Increased uptake of
solar hot water
SHORT-TERM OUTCOME
Increased knowledge of
benefits of solar hot
water
SHORT-TERM OUTCOME
Increased uptake of
financial incentives for
solar hot water
OUTPUTS
Brochures added to
energy bills
OUTPUTS
Financial incentives
provided to
households

11. A program logic can be presented
from…..
Bottom -
Up
Left to
Right
OR

12. INPUTS
Staff,
Money,
Previous
research
Presenting the final logic from left to
right…

13. INPUTS
Staff,
Money,
Previous
research
ACTIVITIES
Events or
processes to
meet needs /
Objectives
Presenting the final logic from left to
right…
What will you
do in your
project?

14. INPUTS
Staff,
Money,
Previous
research
OUTPUTS
Units of service
delivered to
stakeholders /
to meet project
objectives
ACTIVITIES
Events or
processes to
meet needs /
Objectives
Presenting the final logic from left to
right…
What will you
do in your
project?
What will you
deliver?

15. INPUTS
Staff,
Money,
Previous
research
OUTPUTS
Units of service
delivered to
stakeholders /
to meet project
objectives
SHORT-TERM
OUTCOMES
Changes in
knowledge,
awareness,
convenience,
motivation etc
ACTIVITIES
Events or
processes to
meet needs /
Objectives
Presenting the final logic from left to
right…
What will you
do in your
project?
What will you
deliver?
What do you
hope this
achieves?

16. INPUTS
Staff,
Money,
Previous
research
OUTPUTS
Units of service
delivered to
stakeholders /
to meet project
objectives
SHORT-TERM
OUTCOMES
Changes in
knowledge,
awareness,
convenience,
motivation etc
INTERMEDIATE
OUTCOMES
Changes in
behaviour, actions,
practices, decisions
or policies
ACTIVITIES
Events or
processes to
meet needs /
Objectives
Presenting the final logic from left to
right…
What will you
do in your
project?
What will you
deliver?
What do you
hope this
achieves?
If the short-
term
outcomes are
achieved….?

17. INPUTS
Staff,
Money,
Previous
research
OUTPUTS
Units of service
delivered to
stakeholders /
to meet project
objectives
SHORT-TERM
OUTCOMES
Changes in
knowledge,
awareness,
convenience,
motivation etc
INTERMEDIATE
OUTCOMES
Changes in
behaviour, actions,
practices, decisions
or policies
LONG-TERM
OUTCOMES
Environmental,
Social,
Economic
changes
ACTIVITIES
Events or
processes to
meet needs /
Objectives
Presenting the final logic from left to
right…
What will you
do in your
project?
What will you
deliver?
What do you
hope this
achieves?
If the short-
term
outcomes are
achieved….?
And what is
your overall
aim?

18. INPUTS
Staff,
Money,
Previous
research
OUTPUTS
Units of service
delivered to
stakeholders /
to meet project
objectives
SHORT-TERM
OUTCOMES
Changes in
knowledge,
awareness,
convenience,
motivation etc
INTERMEDIATE
OUTCOMES
Changes in
behaviour, actions,
practices, decisions
or policies
LONG-TERM
OUTCOMES
Environmental,
Social,
Economic
changes
ACTIVITIES
Events or
processes to
meet needs /
objectives
Your planned work Your intended results

19. INPUTS
Staff,
Money,
Previous
research
OUTPUTS
Units of service
delivered to
stakeholders /
to meet project
objectives
LONG-TERM
OUTCOMES
Environmental,
Social,
Economic
impacts
ACTIVITIES
Events or
processes to
meet needs /
objectives
Use" action”
words: eg
Engage,
develop,
deliver etc
Use past tense, eg. … reduced,
presented etc
SHORT-TERM
OUTCOMES
Changes in
knowledge,
awareness,
convenience,
motivation
INTERMEDIATE
OUTCOMES
Changes in
behaviour, actions,
practices, decisions
or policies

20. INPUTS
OUTPUTS
SHORT-TERM
OUTCOMES
INTERMEDIATE
OUTCOMES
LONG-TERM
OUTCOMES
ACTIVITIES
From bottom - up
These are the immediate results of your outputs, such as
increased skills, knowledge, convenience, motivation
These are the results of the increased skill or knowledge,
such as changes in behaviour, or specific actions undertaken
These are often beyond the scope of the project, but are
important to identify, such as “reduced resource use”
These refer to activities like “hold 3 workshops”, “develop
brochures” etc
These refer to the results of the activities, such as “50
people attended workshops”, “500 brochures distributed”
This is what you bring to the project

21. An example program logic for this
online toolbox

22. Things to remember…
• A program logic should not be a detailed task
list of everything you will do (you can do that
in a project plan)
• It should outline what you hope to achieve
(your intended result) and how you will do
this (your planned work)
• A program logic provides a guide as to what
you should monitor and evaluate

23. Next Step
• Use the program logic as a guide to
developing monitoring questions for your
monitoring and evaluation (M&E) plan.