The document discusses the distinctions and similarities between 'theory of change' and 'logic model' in program design, monitoring, and evaluation. It emphasizes that while both approaches identify outcomes and causal pathways, they differ in scope, detail, and the depth of reflection required. Additionally, it highlights how theories of change can clarify assumptions and enhance program planning and evaluation, despite potential challenges in their preparation and interpretation.

1. THEORY OF CHANGE
VS LOGIC MODEL
GUELPH EVALUATION CAFÉ

2. THEORY OF CHANGE… IS IT JUST A MORE ELABORATE,
MORE ROBUST VERSION OF A LOGIC MODEL?
Depends who you ask

3. THEORY OF CHANGE VS LOGIC MODEL…
WHY THE CONFUSION?
• “Theory of change” and “logic model” terms are often used
interchangeably and there are many hybrid or blended approaches
• Models of change
• Pathways mapping
• Causal pathway
• Outcomes chain
• Others

4. THEORY OF CHANGE VS LOGIC MODEL…
• They share some similarities…
• both represent a critical thinking approach to program design,
monitoring, and evaluation
• both typically identify outcomes and present a causal pathway
• both should be reviewed / refined regularly to reflect emerging
conditions and new knowledge

5. THEORY OF CHANGE VS LOGIC MODEL…
SOME DISTINCTIONS (MY PERSPECTIVE)
Theory of Change Logic Model
Articulates the ultimate ‘big picture’ outcome
(e.g. societal change)
Narrower scope – program specific outcome
(e.g. individual/group change)
Makes assumptions explicit about how change
will happen and details the contextual conditions
that will influence outcomes
Practical view of the relationship between
program inputs and results
Deeper reflective process on beliefs, values,
worldviews, historical ideas and philosophies of
change – there can be multiple causal pathways
Narrower focus on the specific activities we
intend to implement and the specific outcomes
we hope to achieve
Cross-checked with evidence from a broad body
of analytical perspectives and knowledge
Progress toward achieving outcomes is
demonstrated through measurable indicators
Often illustrated through a diagram or flow chart Often illustrated through a matrix or flow chart

6. THEORY OF CHANGE VS
LOGIC MODEL…
VISUALIZED
Source: Derived from Clark and Anderson 2004: 8–
10

7. Logic models can be a
bit fuzzy on the details
that link program
activities and outcomes
Image credit: Sidney Harris

8. BRIDGING THE ‘MISSING MIDDLE’
• Theories of change explain how and why we
expect the desired change to come about… helps
to clarify what is happening ‘behind the arrows’
• They can also acknowledge the weaknesses /
limitations in the logic and how we might
address them (informs program strategy)
Activities
Outcomes

9. CASE IN POINT…
• Activity = after school youth recreation program
Precondition = youth are mentored by skilled
instructors twice a week for a period of six
months… no more than 5 youth per instructor
(Proven or ideal treatment / dosage vs.
experimental)
• Outcome = improved leadership and life skills for youth participants
}

10. A GOOD THEORY EXPLAINS WHAT CONDITIONS NEED TO BE
IN PLACE BEFORE ANOTHER CONDITION CAN CHANGE
• Attitude
• Knowledge
• Environments
• Systems
• Policies
• Other?

11. TOC IS HELPFUL FOR PROGRAM PLANNING…
• Because it looks at the ‘bigger picture’ of factors that can influence change, TOC
can assist in identifying…
• what the organization can reasonably influence / leverage with its own
resources and activities
• where responsibilities need to be shared with other organizations
• actions that other organizations need to take full responsibility for
• TOC helps to think through and question our assumptions… it can contribute to
the development of a more realistic, doable, and testable program

12. TOC IS HELPFUL FOR PROGRAM EVALUATION…
• With an understanding of the type of change that we can and cannot
realistically influence, we can decide on the outcomes that…
• our organization wants (is willing) to be accountable for (e.g. set targets,
monitor, measure)
• our organization along with our partner organizations want to be collectively
accountable for
• TOC helps to think through and scope the evaluation… defining the things we
want to be responsible for monitoring and measuring

13. THEORY OF CHANGE
AND THE PROJECT CYCLE
1. Context analysis… first step in TOC
2. Design… TOC thinking about possible options to drive change
3. Implementation… implementers need to develop a more detailed
TOC
4. Annual review… TOC should be reviewed annually, revised as
needed
5. Evaluation… TOC identifies key hypothesis to test through
evaluation
Source: Review of the use of ‘Theory of Change’ in international development. Review Report. Isabel Vogel, April 2012

14. THEORY OF CHANGE
PITFALLS
• They can be challenging and time consuming to
prepare
• Requires realistic and transparent strategic
thinking… challenge assumptions, explore and
understand power relations
• They can be messy and confusing
• They can be difficult to interpret – especially if
language is too technical and concepts are too
abstract

15. THEORY OF CHANGE
THINKING
‘The main purpose of the process and the diagram is not to map
reality, but to surface perspectives on reality and worldviews, so that
these can be explored, debated and enriched. Theory of change is
about generating better assumptions, better hypotheses of change to
strengthen our work, learn from what happens and improve it.’
Alfredo Ortiz, Researcher
Institute of Development Studies

16. THEORY OF CHANGE
SIMPLE
VISUAL
Source: United Nations Children’s Fund, Supplementary
Programme Note on the Theory of Change, Peer Review
Group meeting, 11 March 2014, UNICEF, New York, 2014, p. 4.

17. Source: Review of the
use of ‘Theory of
Change’ in International
development. Review
Report. Isabel Vogel,
April 2012
THEORY
OF
CHANGE
DETAIL
VISUAL

18. THEORY OF CHANGE
SAMPLES
• Ecosystems
Services for
Poverty
Alleviation
Theory of
Change
Source: Guidance for M&E of climate change interventions.
Guidance note 3: Theory of Change approach to climate
change adaptation programming. Feb. 2014
• The Hunger
Project Africa
Program
Theory of
Change
Source: Review of the use of ‘Theory of Change’ in
international development. Review Report. Isabel Vogel, April
2012

19. Theory of change
for multi-country
evaluation on
increasing access
and equity in early
childhood
education
Source: UNICEF Regional Office for
Central and Eastern Europe and the
Commonwealth of Independent States
(2014) Terms of Reference for Multi-
country evaluation on increasing access
and equity in early childhood education:
UNICEF’s contribution to achieving
results in six CEE-CIS countries, 2005–
2012, p. 7.
ELSR - early learning and school readiness
THEORY OF
CHANGE

20. LOGIC MODEL
Outcomes
framework (logic
model) for
ecosystem-based
adaptation project
in the Philippines
Source: Constructing Theories of Change for
Ecosystem-Based Adaptation Projects | A
Guidance Document. 2013

21. DISCUSSION