The document summarizes projections of dryland expansion under scenarios of global warming based on analysis of climate model simulations. It finds that precipitation is expected to decrease in many subtropical regions due to warming-induced increases in potential evapotranspiration outpacing any increases in precipitation. This would result in expansion of arid and semi-arid lands in regions like North Africa, the Mediterranean, western US and southern Africa. The confidence in projections is higher for drying trends than wetting trends in some regions.
Key Findings of the IPCC WG1 Fifth Assessment ReportKatestone
Presentation given by Dr Julie Arblaster Senior Research Scientist at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and Lead Author of the ‘Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility‘ chapter of Working Group I (WGI) contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. Julie presented the findings and likely trends suggested by the future climate projections of her work.
Present vs. Future Climate: What Science tells Us?ipcc-media
Presentation given by Fredolin T. Tangang, Vice-Chair of the Working Group II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) during the EU Climate Diplomacy Day that was held at the Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia on 17 June 2015.
First appearing on the blog of Donna LaFramboise, this draft was confirmed as authentic by an IPCC spokesman, according to Justin Gills of The New York Times. Here's the blog post: http://nofrakkingconsensus.com/2013/11/01/new-ipcc-leak-working-group-2s-summary-for-policymakers/
Here's Gillis's news story, which focuses on the draft's conclusions about agriculture: Climate Change Seen Posing Risk to Food Supplies http://nyti.ms/1iBa1tR
Key Findings of the IPCC WG1 Fifth Assessment ReportKatestone
Presentation given by Dr Julie Arblaster Senior Research Scientist at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and Lead Author of the ‘Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility‘ chapter of Working Group I (WGI) contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. Julie presented the findings and likely trends suggested by the future climate projections of her work.
Present vs. Future Climate: What Science tells Us?ipcc-media
Presentation given by Fredolin T. Tangang, Vice-Chair of the Working Group II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) during the EU Climate Diplomacy Day that was held at the Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia on 17 June 2015.
First appearing on the blog of Donna LaFramboise, this draft was confirmed as authentic by an IPCC spokesman, according to Justin Gills of The New York Times. Here's the blog post: http://nofrakkingconsensus.com/2013/11/01/new-ipcc-leak-working-group-2s-summary-for-policymakers/
Here's Gillis's news story, which focuses on the draft's conclusions about agriculture: Climate Change Seen Posing Risk to Food Supplies http://nyti.ms/1iBa1tR
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report: Climate Change and Impacts ipcc-media
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report: Climate Change and Impacts by Renate Christ, Secretary of the IPCC, International Safranbolu Climate Change Conference, Safranbolu, Turkey, 25 March 2015
Observed climate trends and future projections for Africa ipcc-media
A presentation made by Joseph K. Katanga on 29 October 2015 during the IPCC segment of the Fifth Conference for Climate and Development in Africa at the Elephant Hills Resort, in Victoria Falls, Zimbabwe. Check against delivery
Contribution of greenhouse gas emissions: animal agriculture in perspectiveLPE Learning Center
What are the emissions of relevant greenhouse gases from animal agriculture production and how does that compare to other industries? For more on this topic, visit: http://extension.org/60702
This powerpoint presentation is produced by IPCC Working Group I for outreach purposes. It is based on the figures and approved text from the Working Group I Summary for Policymakers with some additional information on the process. The IPCC Working Group I website www.climatechange2013.org provides comprehensive access to all products generated by Working Group I during the fifth assessment cycle of the IPCC.
Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: key messages of the IPCC Fifth Assessm...ipcc-media
Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: key messages of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report and content of the Sixth Assessment Report by Hans-Otto Pörtner, Co-Chair of the IPCC Working Group II, 11 September 2017, UQAM, Montreal, Canada
Climate is a major determinant of everything in nature, including human life. There have been changes in climate in the history of the planet and these have caused massive changes in the fauna and flora. The evidence is increasing that another change in climate is in process probably caused by the industrial activities of man, and that there will be changes in climate that will disrupt the status quo. The risks associated with this are huge ... and we are ill-prepared. The risk posed by climate change is huge.
Summary of key findings of "Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, Working Group I contribution to the IPCC 5th Assessment Report" by Matt Collins, University of Exeter, UK
SICCME open session, 17 September 2014, ICES Annual Science Conference, A Coruña, Spain
Presentation delivered by Dr. Graham Farquhar (The Australian National University, Australia) at Borlaug Summit on Wheat for Food Security. March 25 - 28, 2014, Ciudad Obregon, Mexico.
http://www.borlaug100.org
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report: Climate Change and Impacts ipcc-media
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report: Climate Change and Impacts by Renate Christ, Secretary of the IPCC, International Safranbolu Climate Change Conference, Safranbolu, Turkey, 25 March 2015
Observed climate trends and future projections for Africa ipcc-media
A presentation made by Joseph K. Katanga on 29 October 2015 during the IPCC segment of the Fifth Conference for Climate and Development in Africa at the Elephant Hills Resort, in Victoria Falls, Zimbabwe. Check against delivery
Contribution of greenhouse gas emissions: animal agriculture in perspectiveLPE Learning Center
What are the emissions of relevant greenhouse gases from animal agriculture production and how does that compare to other industries? For more on this topic, visit: http://extension.org/60702
This powerpoint presentation is produced by IPCC Working Group I for outreach purposes. It is based on the figures and approved text from the Working Group I Summary for Policymakers with some additional information on the process. The IPCC Working Group I website www.climatechange2013.org provides comprehensive access to all products generated by Working Group I during the fifth assessment cycle of the IPCC.
Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: key messages of the IPCC Fifth Assessm...ipcc-media
Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: key messages of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report and content of the Sixth Assessment Report by Hans-Otto Pörtner, Co-Chair of the IPCC Working Group II, 11 September 2017, UQAM, Montreal, Canada
Climate is a major determinant of everything in nature, including human life. There have been changes in climate in the history of the planet and these have caused massive changes in the fauna and flora. The evidence is increasing that another change in climate is in process probably caused by the industrial activities of man, and that there will be changes in climate that will disrupt the status quo. The risks associated with this are huge ... and we are ill-prepared. The risk posed by climate change is huge.
Summary of key findings of "Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, Working Group I contribution to the IPCC 5th Assessment Report" by Matt Collins, University of Exeter, UK
SICCME open session, 17 September 2014, ICES Annual Science Conference, A Coruña, Spain
Presentation delivered by Dr. Graham Farquhar (The Australian National University, Australia) at Borlaug Summit on Wheat for Food Security. March 25 - 28, 2014, Ciudad Obregon, Mexico.
http://www.borlaug100.org
Impact of Climate Change on Groundwater ResourcesC. P. Kumar
Powerpoint presentation describing climate change impacts in India, hydrological impact of climate change, impact of climate change on groundwater, methodology to assess the impact of climate change on groundwater resources, recent studies, and role of artificial intelligence.
Presentation held by Jasper Batureine Mwesigwa from IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), at the learning event The Community Based Adaptation and Resilience in East and Southern Africa’s Drylands, held in Addis Abeba, Ethiopia by Care International Adaptation Learning Program for Africa (ALP), The CGIAR research program on Climate change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) and African Insect Science for Food and Health (ICIPE)
Chapter
Climate Change 2014
Synthesis Report
Summary for Policymakers
Summary for Policymakers
2
SPM
Introduction
This Synthesis Report is based on the reports of the three Working Groups of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC), including relevant Special Reports. It provides an integrated view of climate change as the final part of the IPCC’s
Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).
This summary follows the structure of the longer report which addresses the following topics: Observed changes and their
causes; Future climate change, risks and impacts; Future pathways for adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development;
Adaptation and mitigation.
In the Synthesis Report, the certainty in key assessment findings is communicated as in the Working Group Reports and
Special Reports. It is based on the author teams’ evaluations of underlying scientific understanding and is expressed as a
qualitative level of confidence (from very low to very high) and, when possible, probabilistically with a quantified likelihood
(from exceptionally unlikely to virtually certain)1. Where appropriate, findings are also formulated as statements of fact with-
out using uncertainty qualifiers.
This report includes information relevant to Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC).
SPM 1. Observed Changes and their Causes
Human influence on the climate system is clear, and recent anthropogenic emissions of green-
house gases are the highest in history. Recent climate changes have had widespread impacts
on human and natural systems. {1}
SPM 1.1 Observed changes in the climate system
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed
changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have
warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, and sea level has risen. {1.1}
Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth’s surface than any preceding decade since 1850. The
period from 1983 to 2012 was likely the warmest 30-year period of the last 1400 years in the Northern Hemisphere, where
such assessment is possible (medium confidence). The globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature
data as calculated by a linear trend show a warming of 0.85 [0.65 to 1.06] °C 2 over the period 1880 to 2012, when multiple
independently produced datasets exist (Figure SPM.1a). {1.1.1, Figure 1.1}
In addition to robust multi-decadal warming, the globally averaged surface temperature exhibits substantial decadal and
interannual variability (Figure SPM.1a). Due to this natural variability, trends based on short records are very sensitive to the
beginning and end dates and do not in general reflect long-term climate trends. As one example, the rate of warming over
1 Each finding is grounded in an evaluation of underlying evidence and agreement. In many cases, a synthesis of evidence and agreement suppo.
"Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis", assesses the current
scientific knowledge of the natural and human drivers of climate change,
observed changes in climate, the ability of science to attribute changes
to different causes, and projections for future climate change.
The report was produced by some 600 authors from 40 countries. Over 620
expert reviewers and a large number of government reviewers also
participated. Representatives from 113 governments reviewed and revised
the Summary line-by-line during the course of this week before adopting
it and accepting the underlying report.
“Climate Change
2007: The Physical Science Basis”, assesses the current scientific knowledge of
the natural and human drivers of climate change, observed changes in climate,
the ability of science to attribute changes to different causes, and projections
for future climate change.
The report was
produced by some 600 authors from 40 countries. Over 620 expert reviewers and a
large number of government reviewers also participated. Representatives from 113
governments reviewed and revised the Summary line-by-line during the course of
this week before adopting it and accepting the underlying
report.
IPCC 2013 report on Climate Change - The Physical BasisGreenFacts
"Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis" is a comprehensive assessment of the physical aspects of climate change, which puts a focus on the elements that are relevant to understand past, document current, and project future climate change.
The report covers observations of changes in all components of the climate system and assess the current knowledge of various processes of the climate system.
Direct global-scale instrumental observation of the climate began in the middle of the 19th century, and reconstruction of the climate using proxies such as tree rings or the content of sediment layers extends the record much further in the past.
The present assessment uses a new set of new scenarios to explore the future impacts of climate change under a range of different possible emission pathways.
Similar to THEME – 1 Anticipated dryland expansion in scenarios of global warming (20)
Can we measure female social entrepreneurship? ICARDA
1st Annual Conference of the Private Sector Development Research Network:Private Enterprise and Inclusion12-13 December 2019
Presentation by Anastasia Seferiadis, Sarah Cummings and Bénédicte Gastineau
Building Climate Smart FARMERSThe Indian PerspectiveICARDA
Presented by
DR. KIRIT N SHELAT, I.A.S. (Rtd)
National Council for Climate Change, Sustainable Development and Public Leadership (NCCSD)
AHMEDABAD - INDIA
SUSTAINABLE SILVOPASTORAL RESTORATION TO PROMOTE ECOSYSTEM SERVICES IN TUNISIAICARDA
25 - 29 November 2019. Antalya, Turkey. Near East Forestry and Range Commission (NEFRC) - 24th Session
Presentation by Dr. Mounir Louhaichi
Rangeland Ecology & Management
International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas
M.Louhaichi@cigar.org
Highlights on 2019 research outputs and outcomesICARDA
18-20/11/2019. ICARDA Board of Trustees. The Program Committee of the first day was open to all staff. It included:
Highlights of recent research breakthroughs and strategic questions presented by Strategic Research Priorities (CRPs) and Cross Cutting Themes (CCTs).
The presentation is a brief highlight of the rationale for mobile data collection and the landscape of the mobile data collection platforms that exist, and the potential considerations for a choice of a choice of open data kit as a subject of the training
URI
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11766/10373
See also:
https://www.icarda.org/media/events/monitoring-evaluation-and-learning-data-management-and-geo-informatics-option-context
BRINGING INNOVATION AND SUSTAINABILITY ALONG THE WHOLE VALUE CHAIN IN THE MED...ICARDA
Tunis, 6-7 November 2019. Training workshop PRIMA – Partnership for Research and Innovation in the Mediterranean Area is the most ambitious joint programme to be undertaken in the frame of Euro-Mediterranean cooperation.
Presentation by Prof. M. Hachicha National Research Institute in Rural Engineering, Water and Forestry, University of Carthage | UCAR
Utilizing the reject brine from desalination for implementing integrated agri...ICARDA
14-15 November 2019. Madrid. International Symposium on the use of Non-Conventional Waters to achieve Food Security
DESALINATION - “Advancing desalination: reducing energy consumption and environmental footprint”
Presentation by Ms Dionysia Lyra, International Centre on Biosaline Agriculture (ICBA), United Arab Emirates
The role of higher and vocational education and training in developing knowle...ICARDA
25 October 2019. Africa-Europe event on higher education collaboration
Investing in skills and the young generation is key for sustainable social and economic development. Africa and Europe have been working together to develop high quality and inclusive higher education systems, exchange experience in matching skills with the demands of the labour market and to support collaboration, mobility and exchange between students and scientists within and between the African continent and Europe.
Characteristics of a winning research proposal ICARDA
Tunis, 6-7 November 2019. Training workshop PRIMA – Partnership for Research and Innovation in the Mediterranean Area is the most ambitious joint programme to be undertaken in the frame of Euro-Mediterranean cooperation.
Yehia Selmi, co-founder, Bio-wonder, Tunisia.
28 October 2019. Cairo. On the occasion of the 10th Africa Food Day Commemoration, held in joint food and nutrition security research and innovation projects within the Africa-EU Partnership.
Panel 4: Panel 4 – Idea-carriers:
Dr. Jacques Wery, Deputy Director General Research, ICARDA (CGIAR)
28 October 2019. On the occasion of the 10th Africa Food Day Commemoration, held in Egypt under the chairmanship of the African Union by Egypt in 2019, the North Africa event, organized by LEAP4FNSSA with the support of ARC/ Agricultural Research Center of the Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation, launched a public private alliance of partners between Europe and North Africa to develop joint food and nutrition security research and innovation projects within the Africa-EU Partnership
Funding networks and mechanisms to support EU AU FNSSA R&I ICARDA
Dr. Bernard Mallet, Agriculture Projects Coordinator, Agence Nationale de la Recherche, France
28 October. On the occasion of the 10th Africa Food Day Commemoration, held in Egypt under the chairmanship of the African Union by Egypt in 2019, the North Africa event, organized by LEAP4FNSSA with the support of ARC/ Agricultural Research Center of the Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation, launched a public private alliance of partners between Europe and North Africa to develop joint food and nutrition security research and innovation projects within the Africa-EU Partnership
https://www.icarda.org/media/events/building-research-and-innovation-collaborations-within-frame-african-european
Mapping suitable niche for cactus and legumes in diversified farming in drylandsICARDA
Presentation by Chandrashekhar Biradar and team.
16-18 October 2019. Hyderabad, India. TRUST: Humans, Machines & Ecosystems. This year’s Convention was hosted by The International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT). The Platform is led by the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
Seminar of U.V. Spectroscopy by SAMIR PANDASAMIR PANDA
Spectroscopy is a branch of science dealing the study of interaction of electromagnetic radiation with matter.
Ultraviolet-visible spectroscopy refers to absorption spectroscopy or reflect spectroscopy in the UV-VIS spectral region.
Ultraviolet-visible spectroscopy is an analytical method that can measure the amount of light received by the analyte.
A brief information about the SCOP protein database used in bioinformatics.
The Structural Classification of Proteins (SCOP) database is a comprehensive and authoritative resource for the structural and evolutionary relationships of proteins. It provides a detailed and curated classification of protein structures, grouping them into families, superfamilies, and folds based on their structural and sequence similarities.
Richard's entangled aventures in wonderlandRichard Gill
Since the loophole-free Bell experiments of 2020 and the Nobel prizes in physics of 2022, critics of Bell's work have retreated to the fortress of super-determinism. Now, super-determinism is a derogatory word - it just means "determinism". Palmer, Hance and Hossenfelder argue that quantum mechanics and determinism are not incompatible, using a sophisticated mathematical construction based on a subtle thinning of allowed states and measurements in quantum mechanics, such that what is left appears to make Bell's argument fail, without altering the empirical predictions of quantum mechanics. I think however that it is a smoke screen, and the slogan "lost in math" comes to my mind. I will discuss some other recent disproofs of Bell's theorem using the language of causality based on causal graphs. Causal thinking is also central to law and justice. I will mention surprising connections to my work on serial killer nurse cases, in particular the Dutch case of Lucia de Berk and the current UK case of Lucy Letby.
Introduction:
RNA interference (RNAi) or Post-Transcriptional Gene Silencing (PTGS) is an important biological process for modulating eukaryotic gene expression.
It is highly conserved process of posttranscriptional gene silencing by which double stranded RNA (dsRNA) causes sequence-specific degradation of mRNA sequences.
dsRNA-induced gene silencing (RNAi) is reported in a wide range of eukaryotes ranging from worms, insects, mammals and plants.
This process mediates resistance to both endogenous parasitic and exogenous pathogenic nucleic acids, and regulates the expression of protein-coding genes.
What are small ncRNAs?
micro RNA (miRNA)
short interfering RNA (siRNA)
Properties of small non-coding RNA:
Involved in silencing mRNA transcripts.
Called “small” because they are usually only about 21-24 nucleotides long.
Synthesized by first cutting up longer precursor sequences (like the 61nt one that Lee discovered).
Silence an mRNA by base pairing with some sequence on the mRNA.
Discovery of siRNA?
The first small RNA:
In 1993 Rosalind Lee (Victor Ambros lab) was studying a non- coding gene in C. elegans, lin-4, that was involved in silencing of another gene, lin-14, at the appropriate time in the
development of the worm C. elegans.
Two small transcripts of lin-4 (22nt and 61nt) were found to be complementary to a sequence in the 3' UTR of lin-14.
Because lin-4 encoded no protein, she deduced that it must be these transcripts that are causing the silencing by RNA-RNA interactions.
Types of RNAi ( non coding RNA)
MiRNA
Length (23-25 nt)
Trans acting
Binds with target MRNA in mismatch
Translation inhibition
Si RNA
Length 21 nt.
Cis acting
Bind with target Mrna in perfect complementary sequence
Piwi-RNA
Length ; 25 to 36 nt.
Expressed in Germ Cells
Regulates trnasposomes activity
MECHANISM OF RNAI:
First the double-stranded RNA teams up with a protein complex named Dicer, which cuts the long RNA into short pieces.
Then another protein complex called RISC (RNA-induced silencing complex) discards one of the two RNA strands.
The RISC-docked, single-stranded RNA then pairs with the homologous mRNA and destroys it.
THE RISC COMPLEX:
RISC is large(>500kD) RNA multi- protein Binding complex which triggers MRNA degradation in response to MRNA
Unwinding of double stranded Si RNA by ATP independent Helicase
Active component of RISC is Ago proteins( ENDONUCLEASE) which cleave target MRNA.
DICER: endonuclease (RNase Family III)
Argonaute: Central Component of the RNA-Induced Silencing Complex (RISC)
One strand of the dsRNA produced by Dicer is retained in the RISC complex in association with Argonaute
ARGONAUTE PROTEIN :
1.PAZ(PIWI/Argonaute/ Zwille)- Recognition of target MRNA
2.PIWI (p-element induced wimpy Testis)- breaks Phosphodiester bond of mRNA.)RNAse H activity.
MiRNA:
The Double-stranded RNAs are naturally produced in eukaryotic cells during development, and they have a key role in regulating gene expression .
This pdf is about the Schizophrenia.
For more details visit on YouTube; @SELF-EXPLANATORY;
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCAiarMZDNhe1A3Rnpr_WkzA/videos
Thanks...!
THE IMPORTANCE OF MARTIAN ATMOSPHERE SAMPLE RETURN.Sérgio Sacani
The return of a sample of near-surface atmosphere from Mars would facilitate answers to several first-order science questions surrounding the formation and evolution of the planet. One of the important aspects of terrestrial planet formation in general is the role that primary atmospheres played in influencing the chemistry and structure of the planets and their antecedents. Studies of the martian atmosphere can be used to investigate the role of a primary atmosphere in its history. Atmosphere samples would also inform our understanding of the near-surface chemistry of the planet, and ultimately the prospects for life. High-precision isotopic analyses of constituent gases are needed to address these questions, requiring that the analyses are made on returned samples rather than in situ.
Cancer cell metabolism: special Reference to Lactate PathwayAADYARAJPANDEY1
Normal Cell Metabolism:
Cellular respiration describes the series of steps that cells use to break down sugar and other chemicals to get the energy we need to function.
Energy is stored in the bonds of glucose and when glucose is broken down, much of that energy is released.
Cell utilize energy in the form of ATP.
The first step of respiration is called glycolysis. In a series of steps, glycolysis breaks glucose into two smaller molecules - a chemical called pyruvate. A small amount of ATP is formed during this process.
Most healthy cells continue the breakdown in a second process, called the Kreb's cycle. The Kreb's cycle allows cells to “burn” the pyruvates made in glycolysis to get more ATP.
The last step in the breakdown of glucose is called oxidative phosphorylation (Ox-Phos).
It takes place in specialized cell structures called mitochondria. This process produces a large amount of ATP. Importantly, cells need oxygen to complete oxidative phosphorylation.
If a cell completes only glycolysis, only 2 molecules of ATP are made per glucose. However, if the cell completes the entire respiration process (glycolysis - Kreb's - oxidative phosphorylation), about 36 molecules of ATP are created, giving it much more energy to use.
IN CANCER CELL:
Unlike healthy cells that "burn" the entire molecule of sugar to capture a large amount of energy as ATP, cancer cells are wasteful.
Cancer cells only partially break down sugar molecules. They overuse the first step of respiration, glycolysis. They frequently do not complete the second step, oxidative phosphorylation.
This results in only 2 molecules of ATP per each glucose molecule instead of the 36 or so ATPs healthy cells gain. As a result, cancer cells need to use a lot more sugar molecules to get enough energy to survive.
Unlike healthy cells that "burn" the entire molecule of sugar to capture a large amount of energy as ATP, cancer cells are wasteful.
Cancer cells only partially break down sugar molecules. They overuse the first step of respiration, glycolysis. They frequently do not complete the second step, oxidative phosphorylation.
This results in only 2 molecules of ATP per each glucose molecule instead of the 36 or so ATPs healthy cells gain. As a result, cancer cells need to use a lot more sugar molecules to get enough energy to survive.
introduction to WARBERG PHENOMENA:
WARBURG EFFECT Usually, cancer cells are highly glycolytic (glucose addiction) and take up more glucose than do normal cells from outside.
Otto Heinrich Warburg (; 8 October 1883 – 1 August 1970) In 1931 was awarded the Nobel Prize in Physiology for his "discovery of the nature and mode of action of the respiratory enzyme.
WARNBURG EFFECT : cancer cells under aerobic (well-oxygenated) conditions to metabolize glucose to lactate (aerobic glycolysis) is known as the Warburg effect. Warburg made the observation that tumor slices consume glucose and secrete lactate at a higher rate than normal tissues.
The ASGCT Annual Meeting was packed with exciting progress in the field advan...
THEME – 1 Anticipated dryland expansion in scenarios of global warming
1. Anticipated dryland expansion in scenarios
of global warming
ICARDA Workshop
Christopher T. Simmons
H. Damon Matthews
Concordia University,
Montréal, QC, Canada
2. Outline
• Introduction
– Observed regional changes in precipitation and
temperature in the last century
– Representative Climate Pathways (future scenarios)
– Climate models and uncertainties
• Detailed Results from CMIP5 on Dryland Changes
– Precipitation changes
– Projected P/PET and Aridity Classifications
– Shifts in the Köppen-Trewartha Classification of Climate
Regimes
• Conclusions
3. Observed Regional Precipitation Trends
• Globally, little
evidence of major
precipitation changes
or precipitation
extremes
(floods/droughts)
• Certain regions show
significant trends
toward drier or
wetter conditions
(i.e., drying in W.
Africa and parts of
the Mediterranean
Basin.
+ = significant
(90%
confidence)
Adapted from IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, WG1, Physical Science Basis, Pg. 44
1901-2010 1951-2010
White space
represents
missing data
4. Observed Regional Temperature Trends
• Net observed
warming in datasets
is already evident
across many
portions of the
globe.
• High latitude
warming is
accentuated by
decreases in
seasonal ice and
snow coverage
Adapted from IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, WG1, Physical Science Basis, Pg. 39
+ = significant
(90%
confidence),
white space is
missing data
5. Representative Concentration Pathways
(RCPs)
• Scenarios used by the
Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC)
• Each pathway represents
different increases in
anthropogenic radiative
forcing, accounting both for
greater GHG concentrations
(warming effect) and
estimated aerosols (cooling
effect).
• Each pathway is named after
the quantity of radiative
forcing increase between
1750 and 2100 (i.e., RCP8.5 is
associated with a +8.5
Watts/m2 increase in radiative
forcing since 1750.
Adapted from IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, WG1, Physical Science Basis, Pg. 94
6. Representative Concentration Pathways
(RCPs) • With ~2.3 Watts/m2 already
obtained, RCP2.6 optimistically
assumes a near-term and
consistent decrease in fossil
fuel emissions.
• RCP4.5, the ‘stabilization
scenario,’ assumes a gradual
increase in emissions to mid-
century, followed by a decrease
• RCP6.0 assumes a longer
gradual increase in emissions,
followed by a decrease in the
last quarter of the century
• RCP8.5 is the ‘business-as-
usual’ scenario, with continued
increasing emissions
accompanying the projected
rise in global population
Adapted from IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, WG1, Physical Science Basis, Pg. 94
7. Climate Models
• Simplified mathematical
representations of the Earth’s
Climate System
– Usual contain a three
dimensional representation of
the atmosphere and/or the
oceans, land-surface
processes, land/sea ice, and
vegetation
• Validated on how well they
reproduce the climate of the
second half of the 20th
century (when meteorological
observations are more
available and abundant
globally)
• Future climate projections are
obtained by running climate
models, starting at the
present climate, with
estimates of how future
greenhouse gas (GHG) and
aerosol concentrations will
evolve (RCP scenarios)
8. Model Uncertainties
Fig. adapted from Knutti et al. (2013), Geophys. Res. Letters, 40, 1194-1199
• Model Performance:
Different models
reproduce historical
(observed)
precipitation and
temperatures with
different accuracies
• Parameterizations
(mathematical
simplifications of
complex processes):
Models have difficulty
capturing and
accurately reproducing
sub-scale processes
related to convective
precipitation and
tropical cyclones (IPCC:
low confidence), both
of which are important
for subtropical
hydrology
9. Model Uncertainties
Fig. adapted from Hawkins and Sutton (2010),
Clim. Dyn., doi: 10.1007/s00382-010-0810-6
• Internal Variability: very
similar initial conditions or
forcing leads to different
results for a single climate
model
• Model Uncertainty:
different models yield
different results for the
same emissions scenario.
• Scenario Uncertainty:
spread of model solutions
created by using different
RCP scenarios, related to
our lack of knowledge on
how future anthropogenic
emissions will evolve.
10. Model Uncertainties
Fig. adapted from Hawkins and Sutton (2010),
Clim. Dyn., doi: 10.1007/s00382-010-0810-6
• For different parameters
(temperature and
precipitation), different
uncertainties are important
• Model uncertainty is most
important in global
decadal mean
precipitation for short and
long timescales, whereas
internal variability is most
important in the first 20
years of the simulation
• Scenario uncertainty is
dominant for long
timescales in temperature
projections
11. Regional Uncertainties (Precipitation)
• For different
regions, sources
of uncertainty are
different.
• Uncertainty in
Sahel summer
precipitation is
mostly tied to
internal
variability, with
virtually no
influence of
scenario
uncertainty
Figs. adapted from Hawkins and Sutton (2010),
Clim. Dyn., doi: 10.1007/s00382-010-0810-6
13. CMIP5
Table adapted from Feng & Fu (2013), Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 10081-10094.
• Climate Model
Inter-Comparison
Project, Phase 5
(CMIP5)
• 27 Climate
Models are run
with the same
RCP scenarios
• The results of
these simulations
are averaged
together to
obtain the multi-
model average
(or ensemble
mean)
• Caveat: Not all
climate models
are independent
of each other
14. Projected Precipitation Trends
Fig. adapted from IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, WG1, Physical Science Basis, Pg. 91
Dots indicate 90% model agreement on sign of change and change is more than two standard
deviations away from the models’ internal variability
CMIP5 projected change from 1986-2005 average
greater
warming =
more
substantial
precipitation
decreases in
the
Subtropics
Greater
model
confidence of
precipitation
decreases in
drying regions
for more
extreme
warming
scenarios
15. Annual Climate Changes for RCP8.5
°C
% precip.
change
Precipitation Changes (projected change for 2071-2100 from 1961-1990 average)
Temperature Changes (projected change for 2071-2100 from 1961-1990 average)
From Feng et al. (2014), Glob. Planet. Change, 112, 41-52
16. Seasonal Changes in Precipitation for RCP8.5
Precipitation Changes (projected change for 2071-2100 from 1961-1990 average)
Adapted from Feng et al. (2014), Glob. Planet. Change, 112, 41-52
• Both winter (wet season)
and summer drying in
Mediterranean Basin
• Poleward expansion of
Hadley Cell and longer
Monsoon season leads to
greater precipitation in
Tropical Africa and the
Indian Subcontinent, esp.
during the Boreal
Summer.
• Very small increases in
precipitation result in
changes in
precipitation
percentage in regions
with relatively little
total precipitation (ex.
Sahara, Sahel, Arabian
Peninsula)
% precip.
change
17. Precipitation Changes related to
Monsoons
• Monsoon winds are driven
by broad-scale land-sea
temperature contrast
• Models show a weakening
of monsoon winds, but
overall wet season
lengthens due to greater
heating of land than water
(IPCC, likely)
• This leads to increased
precipitation on the Indian
Subcontinent and the
Tibetan Plateau,
particularly during the
Northern Hemisphere
Summer
18. • Poleward expansion of the descending branch
of the Hadley Cell suppresses precipitation in
regions experiencing greater subsidence,
leading to greater drying poleward from
traditional subtropical desert zones
• The Hadley Cell is expected to broaden,
leading to a wider tropical zones and wider
subtropical drylands, but it might also weaken
in intensity (IPCC Report)
Precipitation Changes related to the
Hadley Circulation
Fig. adapted from Yongyun et al. (2013), Adv. Atmos. Sci., 30, 790-795.
19. P/PET
Dryland Classification P/PET
Dry Subhumid 0.5-0.65
Semiarid 0.2-0.05
Arid 0.05-0.2
Hyper-arid 0-0.05
Fig. adapted from Feng & Fu (2013), Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 10081-10094.
• Ratio of Precipitation
to Potential
Evapotranspiration
(PET)
• PET = evaporation
one would get (for a
given air
temperature and
wind speed) over a
completely wet
surface
• Natural values range
from 0 (desert) to
slightly greater than
1 (very moist
regions)
20. Annual P/PET and Relative Humidity in RCP8.5
• Greater warming
over land decreases
relative humidity
• This casues more
evaporation from the
land surface and
increases PET for
much of the globe
• P/PET ratio
decreases in many
regions
% RH
change
CMIP5 Projected change for 2071-2100 from 1961-1990 average
Fig. adapted from Sherwood and Fu (2014), Science,
343, 737-738.
21. • Precipitation does not
increase enough in most
regions to counter the effect
of decreased RH with
increased T
• Gradual drying of many land
surfaces despite increased
precipitation
• Regions influenced by the
stronger monsoon under
greater GHG forcing
experience moistening
(equatorial Africa, Indian
subcontinent)
Annual P/PET vs. Precipitation for RCP8.5
Fig. adapted from Feng & Fu (2013), Atmos. Chem.
Phys., 13, 10081-10094.
CMIP5 Projected change for 2071-2100 from 1961-1990 average
22. Dryland Classification Changes for RCP8.5
Becoming WetterBecoming Drier
Regions with Strong Multi-Model Agreement
(80% consensus) on Drying Trend
CMIP5 Projected change for 2071-2100 from 1961-1990 average
• Expansion arid lands on the northern coast of Africa
to Anatolia, southern Africa, Australia, southwestern
North America.
• Hyper-arid lands expand in northern Africa and Iraq.
• Expansion of semiarid lands to the northern coast of
the Mediterranean, western Africa, Black Sea region,
North American Prairies, southern Africa, western
Africa, and South America.
• Model consensus is much better for regions
experiencing a drying trend (see Fig. to left) than for
regions becoming wetter (not shown).Figs. adapted from Feng & Fu (2013), Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 10081-10094.
23. Global Trends
CMIP5 Projected change for 2071-2100 from 1961-1990 average
• Models have
historically
underestimated
dryland expansion.
According to data,
drylands have
increased in size by 4%
since the 1950s.
• Greatest rate of
expansion of drylands
occur in next 50 years
in both RCP scenarios.
Little net change
thereafter in RCP4.5
• Greater warming
(RCP8.5) leads to more
drylands
(thermodynamic
mechanism)
Figs. adapted from Feng & Fu (2013), Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 10081-10094.
24. Model Uncertainties
• Averaging between
models eliminates
some of the original
climate signal
• In this example, spread
of precipitation for
multi-model ensemble
mean is nearly 30% less
than for the individual
simulations.
• Drying of more than
15-30% per degree
Celcius (or Kelvin,K)
change in temperature,
as seen in the
individual simulations,
is not captured in
multi-model mean
(multi-model mean
calculated for each grid
cell)
Fig. adapted from Knutti et al. (2010), Journal of Clim., 23, 2739-2758
27. Global Climate Regime Shifts
• 46 % of Earth’s land
surface undergoes a
climate regime shift
• Conversion to dryland
classification in many
parts of presently
subtropical northern
Africa and southern
Spain, Australia, central
Asia, southern Africa,
and southwestern
North America
• Mid-century expansion
of drylands by ~6-9%,
end of century by ~8-
16%
CMIP5 Projected change for 2071-2100 from 1961-1990 average for RCP.8.5
Table and Fig. adapted from Feng et al. (2014), Glob. Planet. Change, 112, 41-52
28. Global Climate Regime Shifts to More
Arid Conditions
Fig. adapted from Feng et al. (2014), Glob. Planet. Change, 112, 41-52
• Semiarid and arid
climate regimes
increase, largely at
the expense of
subtropical climate
regime categories
• Greater GHG forcing
leads to greater
warming and more
global aridification
• Models
underestimated more
recent climate regime
shifts to more arid
climates (1990s)
29. Main Conclusions
• Climate models participating in CMIP5 produce a strong consensus for
drying in subtropical regions for scenarios with greater global warming,
due in part to a broadening of the Hadley Circulation
• Specific regions which show the most consistent trends toward drying
in future scenarios are the Mediterranean and Black Sea basins,
southern Africa, southern Australia, and southwestern North America
• Even where increases in precipitation in many mid-latitude regions, a
decrease in relative humidity is also projected for many of these land
surfaces due to greater heating
• Model and scenario uncertainties have an important influence on the
projected expansion of drylands and must be taken into account for a
realistic perspective on future climate regime and vegetation changes
Slides Available at www.esmg.mcgill.ca/ICARDA.pdf
31. Contributors to Warming Climate
• Carbon dioxide, methane,
halocarbons and nitrous
oxide (greenhouse gases)
trap the radiation absorbed
and re-emitted by the
Earth’s surface, contributing
to warming.
• Emissions of aerosols and
cloud condensation nuclei
lead to less solar radiation
received at Earth’s surface,
and replacement of forests
with croplands leads to less
terrestrial absorption of
solar radiation, contributing
to cooling effect.
• Estimated total radiative
forcing: ~2.29 W m2
contribution of warming
from anthropogenic sources
Adapted from IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, WG1, Physical Science Basis,
Pg. 14
32. Model Uncertainties
• For different parameters
(temperature and
precipitation), different
uncertainties are important
• Model uncertainty is most
important in global decadal
mean precipitation for short
and long timescales, whereas
internal variability is more
important in the first 20 years
of the simulation
• Scenario uncertainty is
dominant for long timescales
in temperature projections
Figs. adapted from Hawkins and Sutton (2010), Clim. Dyn., doi: 10.1007/s00382-010-0810-6
33. Model Uncertainties
• Bias projection to
the ensemble mean
from nearly identical
models
– Difference in results
between models
developed by the
same institution are
often a factor of 3-
10 times smaller
than difference with
other models
Fig. adapted from Knutti et al. (2013), Geophys. Res. Letters, 40, 1194-1199
Climate Model Family Tree,
closeness based on similar
behaviour (correlations) of
temperature and
precipitation between the
individual models, often a
symptom of code sharing
between models
34. Global Climate Regime Shifts
Table adapted from Feng et al. (2014), Glob. Planet. Change, 112, 41-52
• Perspective of
broad-scale
Köppen-Trewartha
Climate
Classification, used
to diagnose
vegetation
changes
• 5 classes, B
represents
drylands (arid and
semi-arid)
35. Other Hydrological Parameters
Dots indicate 90%
model agreement
on sign of change
and change is more
than two standard
deviations away
from the models’
internal variability
Fig. adapted from IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, WG1, Physical Science Basis, Pg. 45
36. Thermodynamic Mechanism
Increasing Global Aridity
• Land warms an average of 50%
more than ocean surfaces;
increased land warming from
GHG forcing decreases relative
humidity.
• Relatively robust mechanism
and seen in most models of
global warming scenarios
e___
es
Clausius-Clapeyron Relationship
Relative
Humidity=
Water Vapour
Pressure
(content) of
atmosphere
Saturation
Vapour
Pressure at a
given
temperature