Presentation held by Jasper Batureine Mwesigwa from IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), at the learning event The Community Based Adaptation and Resilience in East and Southern Africa’s Drylands, held in Addis Abeba, Ethiopia by Care International Adaptation Learning Program for Africa (ALP), The CGIAR research program on Climate change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) and African Insect Science for Food and Health (ICIPE)

1. ESA Drylands Climate
Knowledge & Projections
Presented at the
ESA Learning Event on Community Based Adaptation & Resilience
1 – 4 September; ILRI, Addis Ababa
Jasper Batureine Mwesigwa
AGOMETEOROLOGIST, ICPAC

2. Key Definitions
• Climate Change refers to a change in the state of
the climate that persists for an extended period,
typically decades or longer. Climate change may
be due to natural and anthropogenic processes.
• Climate variability – is the year to year fluctuation
or the variation in mean state of climate on all
spatial and temporal scales.
• Climate – Is the average weather conditions
(taken over a period not less than 30 years),
including seasonal to inter-annual extremes and
variations locally, regionally and across the globe.

3. What aspects of Climate are Changing?
• Temperature
– Land, oceans (including snow & ice caps) & the
atmosphere have warmed up
– Warmer & fewer cold days/nights
– More frequent hot days and nights
– Increased frequency & duration of heat waves
• Precipitation
– Increased heavy precipitation events leading to floods
– Increase in frequency & intensity of heavy precipitation
– Increase in intensity and duration of drought
– Increase in intense tropical cyclone activity

4. IPCC

5. 5
Observed Climate Change Signals in the Eastern Africa
Temperature rise

6. • Wetter region gets more wetter and drier gets more
drier since the second half of the 20th century.
• Extreme weather & climate events became more
frequent. IPCC

7. AREAS OF DECLINING
RAIN FALL AMOUNTS
GeoCLIM

8. OBSERVED TRENDS IN RF AMOUNTS 1981-2013(MM/DECADE) GeoCLIM

9. SIGNIFICANT CORRELATION OBSERVED
GeoCLIM

10. BLENDED DATA SATELLITE DATA
GeoCLIM ICPAC

11. Rainfall Trends in Moyale
ICPAC

12. MAKINDU STATION: 1960 - 2012 RAINFALL (ANNUAL TOTAL, MAM, JJAS & OND)
TREND SHOWS REDUCTION IN AMOUNTS ACROSS ALL SEASONS
The Big Question: Has the Climate Changed?
Rainfall Amounts Reducing by Approx 150mm every 50 years
ICPAC

13. Rainfall Trends in the GHA
ICPAC

14. Impacts of the Observed Changes
• Impacts in all socio-economic sectors
– Agriculture/livelihoods
– Infrastructure
– Environment/ecosystems/terrestrial/marine
– Tourism
– Water sector/hydro-power
• Huge economic losses due to impacts
– 2008-2011 in Kenya; livestock sector alone was
estimated to have lost approx: Ksh.699 billion
– The costs and time of recovery are increasing

15. At Community Level
• Seasons are no longer predictable
• Crop production is no longer predictable
• Pastures and water are no longer predictable
• Food security is no longer predictable
• Communities’ livelihoods are not predictable
– Linkage with Chronic Food Insecurity, rampant
Famine, Hunger and Starvation; Poverty,
Conflicts, ???? in the drylands

16. IMPACTS
ICPAC UNEP/GoK KU

17. Projections of Climate Change
IPCC

18. Projections of Climate Change
• Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause
further warming & changes in all components of the
climate system.
• Global surface temperature change for the end of the 21st
century is likely to exceed 1.5°C relative to 1850 to 1900
for all RCP scenarios except RCP2.6.
• Oceans will be more acidic by the end of the 21st century
• Global mean sea level will continue to rise during the 21st
century
• ENSO will remain the dominant mode of inter-annual
variability in the tropical Pacific, with global effects in the
21st century .
• Due to the increase in moisture availability, ENSO-related
precipitation variability on regional scales will likely
intensify

19. September to December (SOND)
Projected 2030 SOND Rainfall
(Base period 1961-1990)
Projected 2050 SOND Rainfall
(Base period 1961-1990)
ICPAC/WFP

20. Projected 2100 Tmin Projected 2100 Tmax
ICPAC/WFP

21. ICPAC/WFP

22. Northern Equatorial Region
Period
Mean projected changes (o C )
2030 2050 2080
Annual
+0.8 +2.5 +3.2
December to
February (DJF) +0.7 +2.4 +3.2
March to May
(MAM) +0.8 +2.5 +3.5
June to August
(JJA) +0.7 +2.8 +3.5
September to
November
(SON) +0.9 +2.1 +3.1
ICPAC/WFP

23. Southern Equatorial Region
Period
Mean projected changes (o C )
2030 2050 2080
Annual +0.6 +2.1 +3.0
December to
February
+0.7 +2.5 +3.3
(DJF)
March to
May (MAM) +0.9 +2.8 +3.2
June to
August (JJA) +0.7 +2.5 +3.0
September
to November
+0.3 +1.1 +3.3
(SON)
ICPAC/WFP

24. IPCC

25. The Uncertainty in the Projections
• There are many uncertainties in future projections of
climate change and its impacts.
• E.g. How will man alter the climate in the future.
• Will depend on factors such as population, economic
growth, technology development, energy demand &
methods of supply/transport, & land use.
• We should to consider a range of possible future
scenarios.
• Another category of uncertainties relate to our
incomplete understanding of the climate system, and
our inability to adequately model some aspects of the
system.

26. Is it possible to Completely Understand the Climate System?
IPCC

27. VULNERABILITY TO POVERTY IN 2030
UNDP

28. Conclusions
• Climate change is real; its impacts have the potential
to undermine & even, undo progress made in
improving the socio-economic well-being
• Need to focus on reducing the risks associated with
the current climate variability and extremes in order
to be able to adapt to future changes in climate
• To be careful about possible maladaptation
• Strengthened inter-linkages between adaptation and
development pathways and a focus on building
resilience would help to counter the current
adaptation deficit and reduce future maladaptation
risks- IPCC

31. Current Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

32. ENSO forecast

33. IOD forecasts

35. Thank you for Listening