The role of climate variability and climate change in NSW water sharing arrangements - Shahadat Chowdhury

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Climate Change Research Strategy for Primary Industries

The document discusses water sharing arrangements in NSW and challenges in accounting for climate variability and climate change. It outlines how water plans are developed using historical climate data but notes limitations in assuming climate stationarity. Modelling future climate poses issues around downscaling global models. The presentation argues for a risk-based approach using current knowledge while improving understanding of climate impacts over time.

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The role of climate variability and climate change in NSW water sharing arrangements Richard Beecham (Water Modelling) Shahadat Chowdhury (Water Modelling) Mark Harris (Planning and Policy)

OVERVIEW OF TALK ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

DEVELOPMENT OF WATER PLAN ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

TIME SERIES OF ANNUAL IRRIGATION DIVERSION

CURRENT PLAN’S RESPONSE TO CLIMATE STATE Simulated response of the Namoi Water Sharing Plan to climate variability Ref: NamoWSP2010.sqq % of long term mean 110 195 WETTEST DECADE 80 50 DRIEST DECADE 100 Diversions 100 1893-2008 Inflows PERIOD

CLIMATE VARIABILITY ISSUES ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

FUTURE WATER PLAN CHALLENGES ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

PLANNING IN STATIONARY CLIMATE 10 YR VARIABILITY PLAN LIFE Annual Rainfall (mm) Residual mass curve

NON STATIONARY CLIMATE STATE 10 YR VARIABILITY PLAN LIFE STATIONARY NON STATIONARY YEAR RAINFALL REFERENCE YEAR (2030 for Basin Plan)

MODELLING FUTURE CLIMATE ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Scaling method GCM/ RCM

ISSUES WITH GCM/RCM PROJECTION ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

SCALING METHOD ,[object Object],[object Object]

Note the dry spells are of similar length!

THE WAY FORWARD ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

The End Author contacts: Richard Beecham, [email_address] Shahadat Chowdhury, [email_address] Mark Harris, [email_address]

SOME TYPICAL SIMULATION OUTCOMES IN THE PLANNING PHASE ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

CLIMATE VARIABILITY VS CHANGE ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

CURRENT PLAN’S RESPONSE TO CLIMATE STATE Ref: NamoWSP2010.sqq Simulated response of the Namoi Water Sharing Plan to climate variability 1590 GL/a (240%) 260 GL/a (110%) 1390 GL/a (195%) Wettest decade 1947 to 1957 330 GL/a (50%) 190 GL/a (80%) 355 GL/a (50%) Driest decade 1936 to 1946 660 GL/a (100%) AVERAGE END of SYSTEM FLOW 235 GL/a (100%) AVERAGE DIVERSION 705 GL/a (100%) Full length 1893 to 2008 AVERAGE MAJOR INFLOW

CURRENT PLAN’S RESPONSE TO CLIMATE STATE Simulated response of the Lachlan Water Sharing Plan to climate variability Ref: LachW018.sqq 210 GL/a (210%) 335 GL/a (120%) 1480 GL/a (195%) Wettest decade 1948 to 1958 40 GL/a (40%) 265 GL/a (95%) 435 GL/a (60%) Driest decade 1901 to 1911 100 GL/a (100%) AVERAGE END of SYSTEM FLOW 280 GL/a (100%) AVERAGE DIVERSION 750 GL/a (100%) Full length 1898 to 2008 AVERAGE MAJOR INFLOW

FUTURE PLAN’S RESPONSE TO CLIMATE STATE The Guide to the Basin Plan proposed the accreditation tests shown in first two columns: *case study: Lachlan & Namoi 90-95% ~ 200% ~ 50% 100% MAJOR INFLOW * ~ 90% A% or less A % Driest decade 90-99% C % or less C % Climate change Full length ~ 110-120% B % or less B % Wettest decade 100% CURRENT IRRIGATION* 100% SURFACE WATER EXTRACTION 100% Full length AVAILABLE WATER

Nepal does not have own climate projection model. Therefore, climate change studies in Nepal completely depend on the results of available model throughout the world. Many field based studies have proven that Nepal is the most vulnerable country in the context of climate change due to limited capacity to adapt to it. On the other hand, it is a big challenge to natural scientists to demonstrate climate change physically because of limited resources. Due to the complex geography of Nepal, most of the global climate projections are not able to capture the temporal and spatial climatic variability. In consideration to this problem, the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) of Nepal has initiated a project to downscale climatic parameters regionally with technical support from the Asian Disaster Preparedness Centre (ADPC) under the financial support of Asian Development Bank (ADB). They used three different Regional Climate Models (RCM); PRECIS, RegCM4, and WRF under AR4 scenarios. However, there is still a lot of discrepancy among these projections which have created confusion among the stakeholders. Therefore, the objective of my presentation will be to focus on the discussion over these issues among the climate experts at UNBC.

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1. The role of climate variability and climate change in NSW water sharing arrangements Richard Beecham (Water Modelling) Shahadat Chowdhury (Water Modelling) Mark Harris (Planning and Policy)

4. TIME SERIES OF ANNUAL IRRIGATION DIVERSION

5. CURRENT PLAN’S RESPONSE TO CLIMATE STATE Simulated response of the Namoi Water Sharing Plan to climate variability Ref: NamoWSP2010.sqq % of long term mean 110 195 WETTEST DECADE 80 50 DRIEST DECADE 100 Diversions 100 1893-2008 Inflows PERIOD

8. PLANNING IN STATIONARY CLIMATE 10 YR VARIABILITY PLAN LIFE Annual Rainfall (mm) Residual mass curve

9. NON STATIONARY CLIMATE STATE 10 YR VARIABILITY PLAN LIFE STATIONARY NON STATIONARY YEAR RAINFALL REFERENCE YEAR (2030 for Basin Plan)

10.

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13. Note the dry spells are of similar length!

14.

15. The End Author contacts: Richard Beecham, [email_address] Shahadat Chowdhury, [email_address] Mark Harris, [email_address]

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18. CURRENT PLAN’S RESPONSE TO CLIMATE STATE Ref: NamoWSP2010.sqq Simulated response of the Namoi Water Sharing Plan to climate variability 1590 GL/a (240%) 260 GL/a (110%) 1390 GL/a (195%) Wettest decade 1947 to 1957 330 GL/a (50%) 190 GL/a (80%) 355 GL/a (50%) Driest decade 1936 to 1946 660 GL/a (100%) AVERAGE END of SYSTEM FLOW 235 GL/a (100%) AVERAGE DIVERSION 705 GL/a (100%) Full length 1893 to 2008 AVERAGE MAJOR INFLOW

19. CURRENT PLAN’S RESPONSE TO CLIMATE STATE Simulated response of the Lachlan Water Sharing Plan to climate variability Ref: LachW018.sqq 210 GL/a (210%) 335 GL/a (120%) 1480 GL/a (195%) Wettest decade 1948 to 1958 40 GL/a (40%) 265 GL/a (95%) 435 GL/a (60%) Driest decade 1901 to 1911 100 GL/a (100%) AVERAGE END of SYSTEM FLOW 280 GL/a (100%) AVERAGE DIVERSION 750 GL/a (100%) Full length 1898 to 2008 AVERAGE MAJOR INFLOW

20. FUTURE PLAN’S RESPONSE TO CLIMATE STATE The Guide to the Basin Plan proposed the accreditation tests shown in first two columns: *case study: Lachlan & Namoi 90-95% ~ 200% ~ 50% 100% MAJOR INFLOW * ~ 90% A% or less A % Driest decade 90-99% C % or less C % Climate change Full length ~ 110-120% B % or less B % Wettest decade 100% CURRENT IRRIGATION* 100% SURFACE WATER EXTRACTION 100% Full length AVAILABLE WATER

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