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IPCC Fifth Assessment Report: Climate Change and Impacts
- 1. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Climate Change and Impacts Renate Christ, Secretary of the IPCC Safranbolu, 25 March, 2015
- 2. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report Key Messages ➜ Human influence on the climate system is clear ➜ Recent climate changes have had widespread impacts on human and natural systems ➜ The more we disrupt our climate, the more we risk severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts AR5 WGI SPM, AR5 WGII SPM,
- 3. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report Humans are changing the climate Year Globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperatures It is extremely likely that we are the dominant cause of warming since the mid-20th century AR5 WGI SPM
- 4. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report Temperatures continue to rise Year Globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperatures Each of the past 3 decades has been successively warmer than the preceding decades since 1850 AR5 WGI SPM
- 5. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report AR5 SYR SPM
- 6. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report AR5 SYR SPM
- 7. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report AR5 SYR SPM
- 8. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report AR5 SYR SPM
- 9. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report Antropogenic forcings are extremely likely the cause of warming
- 10. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report Oceans absorb most of the heat ➜ More than 90% of the energy accumulating in the climate system between 1971 and 2010 has accumulated in the ocean ➜ Land temperatures remain at historic highs while ocean temperatures continue to climb AR5 SYR Energy(1021Joules)
- 11. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report Warming of the climate system is unequivocal Temperature Difference 1901 to 2012 based on trend (°C)
- 12. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report Impacts are already underway • Tropics to the poles • On all continents and in the ocean • Affecting rich and poor countries AR5 WGII SPM
- 13. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report Projected global average surface temperature change
- 14. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report The choices we make will create different outcomes With substantial mitigation Without additional mitigation Change in average surface temperature (1986–2005 to 2081–2100) AR5 WGI SPM
- 15. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report The choices we make will create different outcomes AR5 WGI SPM Change in average precipitation (1986-2005 to 2081-2100) Without additional mitigation With substantial mitigation
- 16. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report Projected climate changes Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and changes in the climate system Global glacier volume will further decrease Global mean sea level will continue to rise during the 21st century It is very likely that the Arctic sea ice cover will continue to shrink and thin as global mean surface temperature rises Oceans will continue to warm during the 21st century AR5 WGI SPM
- 17. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report Potential impacts of climate change Food and water shortages Increased poverty Increased displacement of people Coastal flooding AR5 WGII SPM
- 18. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report Climate change poses risk for food production AR5 SYR SPM
- 19. Risk Level with Current Adaptation Risk Level Very Low Med Very High 4°C 2°C Present Long Term (2080-2100) Near Term (2030-2040) Potential for Additional Adaptation to Reduce Risk Risk Level with High Adaptation Assessing risk and adaptation potential
- 20. Risk Level with Current Adaptation Potential for Additional Adaptation to Reduce Risk Risk Level with High Adaptation Risk-Level Very Low Med Very High 4° C 2° C Present Long Term (2080-2100) Near Term (2030-2040) Flood Heat Drought Water Crops Disease Reefs Flood Coasts Heat Flood Water Livelihoods Coasts Wildfire Heat Flood Ecosystems Health Rate Water Food Disease Coasts CoralFisheries
- 21. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report IPCC Fifth Assessment Report www.ipcc.ch
Editor's Notes
- Global averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature data show a warming of 0.85oC over the period of 1880-2012. Total increase between average of 1850-1900 period and 2003-2012 period is 0.78oC. In West Asia, upward temperature trends are notable and robust in recent decades
- In West Asia, upward temperature trends are notable and robust in recent decades A few examples, while noting that the is substantial inter-annual and decadal variability: Kazahstan 0.31 oC per decade (1936-2005) Tajikistan 0,1-0.2oC per decade (1940-2005) Kyrgistan 1,6oC in 20th century (1901-2000) Afghanistan 0.6 oC in past 50 years (1960-2008) 0.13 oC per decade (1960-2008) Pakistan 0,57oC in 20th century (1901-2000) 0,099oC per decade since 1960 Global averaged 0.85oC over the period of 1880-2012.
- Observed precipitation trends: Kazakhstan – no trend Kyrgyzstan +6% since mid 20th century Tajikistan Plains – insignificant increase Mountains – insignificant decrease Turkmenistan – increase Afghanistan – decrease -2% per decade Other observed changes: Kazakhstan – browning of steppe and increase in permafrost temperature in Northern Tien Shan Mountains Uzbekistan – increase in spring discharge, decrease in summer Changes in surface area of main lakes in the region (mostly decrease) Pakistan – earlier plant growth in in Himalaya in spring Iran – coral bleaching Glaciers: Azerbaijan and Georgia – southern Caucasus – decrease in total by 31,2% (1895-2000) Central Asia (Altai-Sayan, Pamir, Tien Shan) 1960-2009 Area decrease 10% Ice volume decrease 15%
- Central Asia is expected to become warmer in the coming decades and increasingly arid, especially in the western parts of Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan.
- For much of interior Asia, increases in drought stress, as a result of declining rainfall and/or rising temperatures, are the key concern.
- Examples of projected impacts on ECO region Kazakhstan – further advancing of permafrost degradation upwards and northwards Iran – decrease by 50-100% in groundwater recharge in eastern region Eastern Mediterranean – decreases of internal water resources Given the already very high level of water stress in many parts of Central Asia, projected temperature increases and precipitation decreases in the western part of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan could exacerbate the problems of water shortage and distribution. Uzbekistan - Considering the dependence on irrigated agriculture, which consumes more than 90% of the available water resources of the Amu Darya basin, climate change impacts on river flows would also strongly affect the economy
- Agriculture in the ECO region: Some parts of the region could be winners: Cereal production in northern and eastern Kazakhstan could benefit from the longer growing season, warmer winters, and a slight increase in winter precipitation others could be losers: Particularly western Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, where frequent droughts could negatively affect cotton production, increase already extremely high water demands for irrigation, and exacerbate the already existing water crisis and human-induced desertification In Pakistan wheat yield is projected to decrease in Swat district and to increase in Chitral district