The document discusses challenges related to water and food security in the context of climate change and human impact on the environment. It emphasizes the need for a transformative approach to achieve global sustainability and meet UN Millennium Development Goals. Key themes include resilience, ecosystem decline, and the urgency for systemic changes in agricultural practices and water management.

1. CPWF 3rd International Forum South Africa 14th November 2011 Prof. Johan Rockström Stockholm Resilience Centre Stockholm Environment Institute The grand challenge for humanity: Water and Food in the Anthropocene

2. Growing Human Pressure [20/80 dilemma] Climate change [560/450/400 dilemma] Surprise [99/1 dilemma] Ecosystem decline [60 % loss dilemma]

5. Kummu, Ward, de Moel, Varis 2010 Environmental Research Letters

6. Water for Food needs to meet the hunger MDG

7. 11-11-18 Johan Rockström and Carl Folke, Stockholm Resilience Centre Humanity has reached a planetary saturation point A resilient biosphere the basis for humen development Climate change one interacting component of global sustainability A great transformation to global sustainability necessary, possible, and desirable

8. Resilience Water and Food in Agricultural Landscapes Global Environmental Change Global Sustainability now a prerequisite to attain the UN Millennium Development Goals Human Development

9. ” When reality is changing faster than theory suggests it should, a certain amount of nervousness is a reasonable response ” The Economist

10. Atmospheric CO 2 concentration Etheridge et al. Geophys Res 101: 4115-4128 IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

11. Northern hemisphere average surface temperature IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004 Mann et al Geophys Res Lett 26(6): 759-762

12. Atmospheric N 2 O concentration IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004 Machida et al Geophys Res Lett 22:2921-2925

13. Atmospheric CH 4 concentration IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004 Blunier et al J Geophy Res 20: 2219-2222

14. Ozone depletion IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004 JD Shanklin British Antarctic Survey

15. Natural climactic disasters IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

16. Ocean ecosystems IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004 FAOSTAT 2002 Statistical database

17. Coastal zone nitrogen flux IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004 Mackenzie et al 2002.

18. Tropical rainforest and woodland loss IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004 Richards, the Earth as transformed by human action, Cambridge University Press

19. Domesticated land IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004 Klein Goldewijk and Batties

20. Species extinctions IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004 Wilson, the Diversity of Life.

21. The Planetary Response to the drivers of the Anthropocene ” the great acceleration of the human entreprise ” , Professor Will Steffen 1900 1950 2000 CO 2 , N 2 O, CH 4 concentrations Overfishing Land degradation Loss Biodiversity … .. 2010-2020

22. OECD Green Growth Report 2011 20th Century Population 4X Economic Output 22X Fossil fuel consumption 14X

23. Critical transitions or regime shifts

24. 1 2 overfishing, coastal e utrophication phosphorous accum- ulation in soil and mud fire prevention 3 state shift disease, h urricane f looding, warming, overexploitation of predators good rains, continu- ous heavy grazing coral dominance clear water grassland 4 algal dominance turbid water shrub-bushland Valuable Ecosystem Services Loss of ecosystem services (Desirable) (Undesirable)

26. +

27. The Resilience of the Earth System

28. Humanity ’ s 10,000 years of grace

29. … Rockström et al. 2009 Nature, 461 (24): 472-475 Global fresh- water use Transgressing safe boundaries

30. Adapted from Canadell et al., 2007 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Gt Carbon/yr land ocean atmosphere Resilience of the Earth system

31. Water Resilience - Managing Moisture Feedback

32. Australia ’ s Great Barrier Reef Sweden ’ s urban landscapes Latin America ’ s agricultural revolution Water Resilience: Turning crisis into opportunity A shift in mindset for transformation WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY Preparing the system for change Navigating the transition Building resilience of the new direction

33. A triply Green Revolution 2-3 X productivity Social-Ecological Resilience Green water management The new water for food challenge