Anish Vyas

1. Currency Highlights
12th
Jan’2017
HighLights:
 Indian Rupee fell to 6-week low to 68.33 on Wednesday
 UK’s Manufacturing Production gained by 1.3 percent in Nov
 Japan’s Current Account at surplus of 1.80 trillion Yen in Nov
 US IBD/ TIPP Economic Optimism grew to 55.6-mark in Jan
Indian Rupee came under pressure to decline to 6-week low and de-
preciated around 14 paise to end at 68.33 against the US dollar on
Wednesday. The currency depreciated on account of fresh dollar de-
mand from importers and banks. Further, outflow of foreign funds
from selling in equities by the institutional investors kept pressure on
the currency. So far this year, foreign institutional investors sold
$342.10 million in equity while $185 million buy in debt.
Moreover, World Bank decelerating India's growth for 2016-17 fiscal
to a "still robust" 7 percent from its previous estimate of 7.6 percent
due to demonetisation impact kept currency in the negative territory.
Investors were cautious ahead of the key macro-economic data to be
released on 12th and 16th Jan’17.
In cross-currency trades, the rupee fell back against the pound sterling to settle at 82.93 from overnight level of 82.80, but re-
covered against the euro to end at 71.89 as compared to 72.15 earlier. It remained weak against the Japanese Yen to finish at
58.77 per 100 yens from 58.73 yesterday. Indian Rupee moved in the range of 68.18 to 68.39 in Wednesday’s trade. The Re-
serve Bank of India (RBI) fixed reference rate for the dollar was seen at 68.2276 and Euro stood at 72.3213 as on 11th Jan’17.
For the month of January 2017, FII outflows in equities totalled at Rs.3121.63 crores ($458.61 million) as on 11th January 2017.
Year to date basis, net capital outflows stood at Rs.3121.63 crores ($458.61 million) as on 11th January 2017.
US Dollar Index dropped around 0.25 percent in Wednesday’s trading session due to rise in risk appetite in global market senti-
ments which led to decline in demand for the low yielding currency. However, favourable economic data from the country
cushioned sharp fall in the currency. US Investor's Business Daily (IBD)/TechnoMetrica Institute of Policy and Politics (TIPP)
Economic Optimism grew by 0.8 points to 55.6-mark in January from 54.8-level in December.
Euro against dollar gained around 0.3 percent on Wednesday on account of weakness in the dollar index along with upbeat
global market sentiments. However, sharp upside was capped as a result of estimates of unfavourable economic data from the
region.
The Sterling Pound rose around 0.3 percent in Wednesday’s trade as a result of upbeat global market sentiments coupled with
weaker dollar. Additionally, favourable economic data from the country kept the currency in positive territory. UK’s Manufac-
turing Production gained by 1.3 percent in November as against a decline of 1 percent in October. Goods Trade Balance was at
a deficit of 12.2 billion Pounds in November from a deficit of 9.9 billion Pounds a month ago. Industrial Production rose by 2.1
percent in November when compared to fall of 1.1 percent in earlier month.
The Japanese Yen against dollar appreciated around 0.3 percent in Wednesday’s trading session due to rise in risk aversion in
global market sentiments in early part of the trade which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. Japan’s Cur-
rent Account was at a surplus of 1.80 trillion Yen in November with respect to surplus of 1.93 trillion Yen in October.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Last PrevCl. PriceChng PriceChng%
DollarIndex 102.31 102.07 0.24 0.23
USD/INR(Spot) 68.32 68.32 0.00 0.00
USD/INR(NseJan) 68.46 68.33 0.13 0.19
EUR/INR(Spot) 71.87 72.11 (0.24) (0.33)
EUR/INR(NseJan) 72.07 72.37 (0.30) (0.42)
GBP/INR(Spot) 82.97 83.19 (0.22) (0.27)
GBP/INR(NseJan) 83.20 83.12 0.08 0.10
JPY/INR(NseJan) 58.93 58.95 (0.02) (0.03)
MarketHighlights

2. Technical View:
On daily chart, it has been observed that the JPYINR has
completed a Bullish Bat harmonic pattern at 57.55 levels
the coordinates of which are as follows:
Technical Parameter: XA of the leg from 56 to 67.90,AB
of the leg completed at 63.30 (i.e.38.20% of XA leg.), BC
of the leg completed at 67.50 (i.e. near 88.60% of AB leg)
and CD of the leg completed at 57.55 level. (i.e. 88% of
XA and 224% of BC leg).
On daily chart momentum indicator RSI is trading in
oversold zone which indicates up side momentum can
be seen in the prices.
In addition, momentum indicator MACD has shown posi-
tive crossover which suggest possibilities of rebound in
the prices on daily chart.
So for trading perspective, one could JPYINR buy in the
range of 58.80 with SL of 58.50 for target of 59 .40 lev-
els.
Pivot levels for the Day
Technical View:
The pair has been moving in its rising channel pattern
and prices have been taking support of its lower band of
channel pattern at 67.90 levels on hourly chart.
On hourly chart price has taken support of its 61.80%
Fibonacci retracement levels.
Moreover, prices have been trading above its 21 HSMA
which gives the sign of bullishness in the prices.
A momentum indicator RSI has been trading above 40
levels, which suggest further positive momentum can be
seen in the prices.
In addition, momentum indicator MACD has shown
positive crossover on hourly chart.
So for trading perspective, one could buy USDINR in
range 68.30 with SL of 68 for target of 68.80.
Currency Highlights
12th
Jan’2017
USDINR JPYINR
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
USDINR 67.91 68.18 68.31 68.45 68.58 68.72 68.99
JPYINR 58.48 58.72 58.82 58.96 59.06 59.20 59.44

3. Pivot levels for the Day
Currency Highlights
12th
Jan’2017
GBPINR EURINR
Technical View:
The price has taken support of its horizontal trend line
at 71.80 levels on daily chart. The EURINR pair has also
taken support of its falling trend line at 70.70 levels on
daily chart.
The pair has been trading above its 21 DSMA on daily
chart, which suggest further bullishness can be seen in
the prices.
On daily chart momentum oscillator RSI has been mov-
ing above 50 levels on daily chart, which suggest bullish-
ness in the prices.
A momentum indicator MACD has shown positive cross-
over on daily chart, which support our bullish view to
the prices.
For now we can expect prices should move higher to-
wards 72.80 levels in the coming trading session.
Technical View:
The price has been trading in inverted head and shoul-
der formation and prices ay test its neckline at 85 levels
on hourly chart.
The price have shown breakout its horizontal line at 84
levels on hourly chart.
Moreover, prices have been trading above 21 HSMA,
which suggest short term trend looks positive.
Moreover, momentum indicator MACD has given posi-
tive cross over on hourly chart, which gives the sign of
bullishness in the prices.
The momentum indictor RSI has been trading above 45
levels on hourly chart, which suggest the possibilities of
further rebound in the prices.
For now we expect prices should move higher towards
83.80 levels coming trading sessions.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
GBPINR 82.32 82.75 82.97 83.18 83.40 83.61 84.04
EURINR 71.57 71.85 71.96 72.13 72.24 72.41 72.69

4. Currency Highlights
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
12th
Jan’2017
Economic Indicators
Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact
12.01.17 05:20 AM Current Account 1.93T 1.48T Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; JPYINR
12.01.17 07:00 AM Unemployment Claims 235K 266K Actual < Forecast = Good for
currency; USDINR
12.01.17 07:00 PM FOMC Member Evans Speaks More hawkish than expected =
Good for currency; USDINR

5. Currency Highlights
12th
Jan’2017
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Anish Vyas
Digitally signed by Anish Vyas
DN: cn=Anish Vyas, o=Choice Merchandise
Broking Pvt. Ltd, ou=Sr. Research Associate,
email=anish.vyas@choiceindia.com, c=IN
Date: 2017.01.12 08:57:10 +05'30'