Thomas MÜNZBERG1, Tina COMES2, Frank SCHULTMANN2 11Karlsruhe Institute for Technology, Institute for Nuclear and Power Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany, Federal Republic of; 2Karlsruhe Institute for Technology, Institute for Industrial Production, Karlsruhe, Germany, Federal Republic of

1. Critical Infrastructure Disruptions: A Holistic System
Dynamic Approach for Decision Support
Challenges in critical infrastructure disruption management and decision support
opportunities via a holistic system dynamic approach
Institute for Nuclear and Energy Technologies Thomas Münzberg
Institute for Industrial Production Tina Comes, Frank Schultmann
KIT – University of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg and
National Research Center of the Helmholtz Association www.kit.edu

2. Outline
1. Characteristics of Critical Infrastructure (CI)
Disruptions
2. Introduction to System Dynamic
3. System Dynamic Application
CI System Dynamic Model
CI System Dynamic Impact Matrix
CI System Dynamic Impact Diagramm
4. Conclusion and Outlook
2 28.08.2012 Münzberg, Th.; Comes, T.; Schultmann, F. Institute for Nuclear and Energy Technologies
4th IDRC Davos 2012 Institute for Industrial Production

3. Characteristics of
Critical Infrastructure Disruptions
Definition of Critical Infrastructure (German approach):
“Organizations and institutions of special importance for the country
and its people where failure or functional impairment would lead to
severe supply bottlenecks, significant disturbance of public order or
other dramatic consequences”
Federal Ministry of the Interior, 2009
Sectors of Critical Infrastructures
Media
Food
culture Transport
Energy and traffic
Critical
Water Infrastructures Health
Information technology Government and
Finance and
and telecommuncations public administration
insurance industry
Federal Office for Information Security, Federal Office of Civil Protection and Disaster Assistance , 2011
3 28.08.2012 Münzberg, Th.; Comes, T.; Schultmann, F. Institute for Nuclear and Energy Technologies
4th IDRC Davos 2012 Institute for Industrial Production

4. Characteristics of
Critical Infrastructure Disruptions
Trigger Event CI Network Stakeholder/
Affected Elements
Resilience Criticality
CI Sector‘s Vulnerability
CI Sector Stakeholder/ Element‘s Resilience
= Resilience
Resilience
Exposure Vulnerability Stakehholder/
Exposure Element
Emergency Management Authorities
Rinaldi, Peerenboom, Kelly (2001), Fekete (2010)
Analysis approaches for Critical Infrastructure Protection
Deductive approach Inductive approach
What kind of events What are the
lead to critical (e.g. consequences of (e.g.
infrastructure Vulnerability Analysis critical infrastructure Impact Analysis
disruptions? Threat Analysis) disruptions? Criticality Analysis)
4 28.08.2012 Münzberg, Th.; Comes, T.; Schultmann, F. Institute for Nuclear and Energy Technologies
4th IDRC Davos 2012 Institute for Industrial Production

5. Characteristics of
Critical Infrastructure Disruptions
Challenges in CI Disruption Management
System complexity
Multiple actors of private and public sector – multi-agency
response to risks
Interdependencies of CIs
Uncertainty
Lacks in data quality
Limited Resources
Systematic risks
Lack of system understanding
Need for a systems thinking approach for decision support
5 28.08.2012 Münzberg, Th.; Comes, T.; Schultmann, F. Institute for Nuclear and Energy Technologies
4th IDRC Davos 2012 Institute for Industrial Production

6. Introduction to System Dynamic
System Dynamic Method
Method for analysing system’s complexity and dynamic
behaviour that change over time
Dynamic model with links and feedback/causal loops
Results: long term impacts and prognosis via simulation
System Dynamic Approach
Problem Qualitative Quantitative
Simulation
Definition Model Modelling
Application for the Management of CI Disruptions
Aim:
Provide decision makers a system dynamic understanding of how
disruption propagates and may cascades through the CI system
6 28.08.2012 Münzberg, Th.; Comes, T.; Schultmann, F. Institute for Nuclear and Energy Technologies
4th IDRC Davos 2012 Institute for Industrial Production

7. System Dynamic Application
System Dynamic Approach for CI Disruption Management
7 28.08.2012 Münzberg, Th.; Comes, T.; Schultmann, F. Institute for Nuclear and Energy Technologies
4th IDRC Davos 2012 Institute for Industrial Production

8. CI System Dynamic Model
Generic Performance
Assumption of a generic performance allows to understand and to
measure how a town depends on each single CI sector
8 28.08.2012 Münzberg, Th.; Comes, T.; Schultmann, F. Institute for Nuclear and Energy Technologies
4th IDRC Davos 2012 Institute for Industrial Production

9. System Dynamic Impact Matrix
Influence matrix
(example)
Impact Matrix
- Dynamic influences and importance of sectors
- System and dynamic understanding
9 28.08.2012 Münzberg, Th.; Comes, T.; Schultmann, F. Institute for Nuclear and Energy Technologies
4th IDRC Davos 2012 Institute for Industrial Production

10. System Dynamic Impact Diagramm
(example)
Impact Diagramm
- Dynamic impact visualization
- Time framed analysis
10 28.08.2012 Münzberg, Th.; Comes, T.; Schultmann, F. Institute for Nuclear and Energy Technologies
4th IDRC Davos 2012 Institute for Industrial Production

11. Conclusion and Outlook
Disruption management : challenging task for decision makers
System Dynamic for
- insights in system effects
- system behaviour understanding
over time
visualization of dynamic evolution of CI disruption impacts
Further Research
- validation by sensitivity analysis and expert workshops
- integration of real data of local interdependencies and impacts
- integration of counter measures for further simulation
11 28.08.2012 Münzberg, Th.; Comes, T.; Schultmann, F. Institute for Nuclear and Energy Technologies
4th IDRC Davos 2012 Institute for Industrial Production

12. Thank you for your attention!
Baden Baden/Germany
May 2013
10th International Conference on
Information Systems for Crisis
Response and Management
TOPIC
Holistic Crisis Management of
Thomas Münzberg M.Sc. Disasters Affecting Critical
thomas.muenzberg@kit.edu Infrastructures
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)
Institute for Nuclear and Energy Technologies (IKET)
Institute for Industrial Production (IIP) http://iscram2013.org/
This research was supported by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF). We would like to thank the BMBF as well as the
project consortium of SECURITY2People and our associate project partners for their insightful contribution and their dedicated support.
12 28.08.2012 Münzberg, Th.; Comes, T.; Schultmann, F. Institute for Nuclear and Energy Technologies
4th IDRC Davos 2012 Institute for Industrial Production

13. Reference list and suggested literature
Federal Ministry of the Interior, 2009: National Strategy for the Protection of Critical Infrastructure (KRITIS-Strategie).
Available at http://www.bmi.bund.de/SharedDocs/DE/Themen/Sicherheit/SicherheitAllgemein/kritis.html (last accessed on 14
June 2012).
Federal Office for Information Security, Federal Office of Civil Protection and Disaster Assistance, 2011:Definition of Critical
Infrastructures. Available at
http://www.kritis.bund.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/Kritis/EN/neue_Sektoreneinteilung_engl..pdf?__blob=publicationFile (last
accessed on 14 June 2012).
Fekete, A., 2010: Criticality analysis of Critical Infrastructures (CI) Development of a CI priority list on national level. –
International Disaster and Risk Conference (IDRC), 30 May - 03 June 2010, Davos, Switzerland.
Rinaldi, Steven M.; Peerenboom, James P.; Kelly, Terrence K. 2001: Identifying, Understanding, and Analyzing Critical
Infrastructure Interdependencies, IEEE Control Systems Magazine, December 2001:11-25.
Used Software for Modeling and Simulation System Dynamic: Consideo Modeller : http://www.consideo-modeler.de/.
13 28.08.2012 Münzberg, Th.; Comes, T.; Schultmann, F. Institute for Nuclear and Energy Technologies
4th IDRC Davos 2012 Institute for Industrial Production