An Integrated Multi-Criteria Approach on Vulnerability Analysis in the Context of Load Reduction

KIT – University of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg and
National Research Center of the Helmholtz Association
Institute for Nuclear and Energy Technologies
Institute for Industrial Production
www.kit.edu
Thomas Münzberg, Tim Müller, Stella Möhrle,
Tina Comes, Frank Schultmann
An Integrated Multi-Criteria Approach on
Vulnerability Analysis in the Context of Load
Reduction

2 02.07.2013
Outline
1. Introduction
2. The Load Reduction Problem
3. Developing a Vulnerability Assessment
4. Use Case
5. Conclusion
Münzberg, Th.; Müller, T.; Möhrle, S.; Comes, T; Schultmann, F.
ISCRAM 2013, Baden-Baden

3 02.07.2013
Characteristics of Power Outages
InductiveViewDeductiveView
Infrastructure
Damage Network
Instability

4 02.07.2013
The Load Reduction Problem
TransmissionCode 2007: Network and System Rules of the German Transmission System Operators
Network
Instability
Stage Frequency Actions of power grid operators
1 49.8 Hz Alerting of staff and scheduling of the power station
capacity not yet activated, according to the Transmission
System Operator’s directions, shedding of pumps.
2 49.0 Hz Instantaneous load shedding of 10 - 15 % of the system
load.
3 48.7 Hz Instantaneous load shedding of further 10 - 15 % of the
system load.
4 48.4 Hz Instantaneous load shedding of further 15 - 20 % of the
system load.
5 47.5 Hz Disconnection of all generating facilities from the network
Drop in
Frequency
5-Stage Plan
to control a drop in
frequency
(TransmissionCode,
DistributionCode)

5 02.07.2013
Network
Instability
Drop in
Frequency
Transmission Grid
Distribution Network
A
B
C D
E
5-Stage Plan
frequency
(TransmissionCode,
DistributionCode)

6 02.07.2013
A
B
C D
E
Network
Instability
Drop in
Frequency
Example 1
Load shedding by decoupling the
supply regions B and D
Example 2
supply regions A and E
5-Stage Plan
frequency
(TransmissionCode,
DistributionCode)
Transmission Grid

7 02.07.2013
Network
Instability
Drop in
Frequency
Example 1
Affected critical infrastructures and
population:
Example 2
population:
Transmission Grid
A
B
C D
E
5-Stage Plan
frequency
(TransmissionCode,
DistributionCode)

8 02.07.2013
Network
Instability
Drop in
Frequency
The Risk of Load Reduction
R = H * E * V
Risk = Hazard x Exposure x Vulnerability
The hazard H is the probability of outage of a
specific severity.
The exposure E describes the Critical
Infrastructures at risk in the potential affected
supply region.
The vulnerability V is the condition of physical,
social and economic factors increasing the
susceptibility of the functioning of a SR to power
outages.
5-Stage Plan
frequency
(TransmissionCode,
DistributionCode)
Example 1
population:
Example 2
population:

9 02.07.2013
What are the levels of vulnerability in
the supply regions?
What kind of critical infrastructures
are affected by decoupling selected
supply regions?
Which supply region should be chosen
to be decoupled?
How does the vulnerabiltity change
when decision maker‘s preferences
change regarding single critical
infrastructures?
Challenges within the Load Reduction Problem
Avoiding and minimizung the effects of power outages to an affected area
Control a drop in frequency by load reducing
Needs to support decisions
Developing a clear and well-
structured framework to assess
socio-economic vulnerabilities
Faciliating the integration of all
involved stakeholders to the
decision making process
Assessing and ranking the levels of
vulnerabilities of supply regions
against power outages
1
2
3
4

10
Analytical selection of criteria and attributes to assess the
vulnerability of the SRs to power outages
Developing a Vulnerability Assessment
The general procedure of assessing vulnerability of Supply Regions (SR) based on a
Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA):
1
Definition of a hierarchical criteria framework
Definition of the normalization functions
Integration of the weighting factors
Aggregation to prioritize SRs
Visualization of results
Sensitivity analysis concerning changing weights and attribute
values accompanied by an update of the criteria framework
2
3
4
5
6
7
02.07.2013

11 02.07.2013
Hierarchical
Criteria
Framework
Vulnerability
Supply
Region
SR A
SR B
SR C
Supply Regions
(SR)
SR A
Critical Infrastructure
Sectors and Branches
SR B SR C
Criteria Alternatives
Weights
Data
Collection
Collaborative
Partnerships
1
…
…
Developing a Vulnerability Assessment
0

12 02.07.2013
Vulnerability Analysis
Münzberg, Th.; Müller, T., Möhrle, S., Comes, T; Schultmann, F.
Hierarchical
Criteria
Framework

13 02.07.2013
Vulnerability Analysis
Münzberg, Th.; Müller, T., Möhrle, S., Comes, T; Schultmann, F.
Hierarchical
Criteria
Framework

14
Perform the sensitivity
analysis
Weight the criteria and
attributes in a collaborative
way
Collect data by using the
established collaborative
partnerships of Local
Emergency Management
Authorities, CI providers and
other stakeholders on the
local level
02.07.2013
Applying the framework to support critical infrastructure protection in
collaborative partnerships:
Use Case
Align the hierarchical criteria
framework to the local
circumstances

15 02.07.2013
Use Case
aggregated criteria of
‘Hospitals’,
‘Social Facility’,
‘Chemical Industry’,
‘Economy Point of Interest’
‘Security Point of Interest’
Hospitals
Social
Facilities
Chemical
Industry
Economy Points
of Interest
Security Points
of Interest
Aggregated
Criteria:

16 02.07.2013
Use Case
aggregated criteria of
‘Hospitals’,
‘Social Facility’,
‘Chemical Industry’,
‘Economy Point of Interest’
‘Security Point of Interest’
Hospitals
Social
Facilities
Chemical
Industry
Economy Points
of Interest
Security Points
of Interest
Aggregated
Criteria:

17
Conclusion
The assessment of supply region‘s vulnerabilities is essential for emergency
management and the collaborative preparedness against power outages.
The vulnerability of supply region can be assessed by an integrated multi-criteria
approach taking economic, social and physical impacts into account. The approach
enhances understanding the consequences of power outages.
The display of levels supply region‘s vulnerabilities can be used for vulnerability-
triggered load reduction in disaster risk management.
Data collection as well as the criteria weighting process need collaboration between
EMA, CI providers and stakeholders. This supports inter-organizational partnerships
for CI protection.
Future Research Directions
Analysing uncertainties (e.g. indicator selection and standardization)
Consideration of dynamic aspects resulting from (1) time limited resilience capacities
and (2) propagation of consequences by interconnected infrastructures
02.07.2013 Münzberg, Th.; Müller, T.; Möhrle, S.; Comes, T; Schultmann, F.

18 Münzberg, Th.; Müller, T.; Möhrle, S.; Comes, T; Schultmann, F.
02.07.2013
Thank you for your attention!
Thomas Münzberg M.Sc.
thomas.muenzberg@kit.edu
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)
Institute f. Nuclear and Energy Techn. (IKET)
Institute f. Industrial Production (IIP)
We would like to thank CEDIM as well as the
Mannheim Municipal Fire Department as
representatives of the city of Mannheim for
supporting this work.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

An Integrated Multi-Criteria Approach on Vulnerability Analysis in the Context of Load Reduction

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