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Copyright © 2016 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201
EVERY CORPSE ON EVEREST WAS ONCE AN
EXTREMELY MOTIVATED PERSON, HIGHLY
ENGAGED WITH INSPIRED LEADERS
Material in this presentation is either Copyright © 2016 Bangor University or Cognitive Edge Pte Ltd.. All Rights Reserved. Protected in part by copyright, patent and trademark and other law
THE CYNEFIN CENTRE: NAVIGATING COMPLEXITY IN SOCIAL SYSTEMS
ISSUES WITH CASE BASED EVIDENCE
24radiologistswereaskedtoperforma
familiarlungnoduledetectiontask.
Apictureofagorilla,48timeslargerthan
theaveragenodule,wasinsertedinthelast
case.
83%ofradiologistsdidnotseethegorilla.
Eye-trackingshowedthatthemajorityof
thethosewhomissedthegorillalooked
directlyatit
Drew, Vo & Wolfe 

Psychol Sci. Sep 2013; 24(9): 1848–1853
Material in this presentation is either Copyright © 2016 Bangor University or Cognitive Edge Pte Ltd.. All Rights Reserved. Protected in part by copyright, patent and trademark and other law
THE CYNEFIN CENTRE: NAVIGATING COMPLEXITY IN SOCIAL SYSTEMS
DIVERSITY OF PERSPECTIVE, WORKING WITH CHAOS
Copyright © 2016 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201
COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS
DEALING WITH INHERENT UNCERTAINTY
Material in this presentation is either Copyright © 2016 Bangor University or Cognitive Edge Pte Ltd..
All Rights Reserved. Protected in part by copyright, patent and trademark and other law
…IT’S COMPLEX
IF THE EVIDENCE SUPPORTS
CONFLICTING HYPOTHESES AND
CONTRADICTION CAN NOT BE
RESOLVED WITHIN THE AVAILABLE
TIME THEN …
Material in this presentation is either Copyright © 2016 Bangor University or Cognitive Edge Pte Ltd.. All Rights Reserved. Protected in part by copyright, patent and trademark and other law
THE CYNEFIN CENTRE: NAVIGATING COMPLEXITY IN SOCIAL SYSTEMS
CYNEFIN A SENSE-MAKING FRAMEWORK …
Complicated
Governing constraints
sense-analyse-respond
Good Practice
Obvious
Rigid constraints
sense-categorise-respond
Best Practice
Chaotic
Absence of constraints
act-sense-respond
Novel Practice
Complex
Enabling constraints
probe-sense-respond
Emergent Practice
Cynefin allows us
to understand how
to act in different
contexts
no domain is
better than any
other
Material in this presentation is either Copyright © 2016 Bangor University or Cognitive Edge Pte Ltd..
All Rights Reserved. Protected in part by copyright, patent and trademark and other law
UNINTENDED
CONSEQUENCES
THE ONLY INEVITABILITY
Material in this presentation is either Copyright © 2016 Bangor University or Cognitive Edge Pte Ltd.. All Rights Reserved. Protected in part by copyright, patent and trademark and other law
THE CYNEFIN CENTRE: NAVIGATING COMPLEXITY IN SOCIAL SYSTEMS
PROBING TO UNDERSTAND
▸ All experiments must be:
▸ Safe to fail
▸ coherent
▸ take place in parallel over the
same time period
▸ Within the portfolio:
▸ there must be contradiction
▸ at least one must be naive
▸ optional one or more can be
oblique
Material in this presentation is either Copyright © 2016 Bangor University or Cognitive Edge Pte Ltd.. All Rights Reserved. Protected in part by copyright, patent and trademark and other law
THE CYNEFIN CENTRE: NAVIGATING COMPLEXITY IN SOCIAL SYSTEMS
CYNEFIN A SENSE-MAKING FRAMEWORK
Complicated
Obvious
Chaotic
Complex
It's not just about
the domains it's
also dyamics
Managing
continuous flow
requires radically
different
architecture
Copyright © 2016 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201
UNARTICULATED NEEDS
Material in this presentation is either Copyright © 2016 Bangor University or Cognitive Edge Pte Ltd.. All Rights Reserved. Protected in part by copyright, patent and trademark and other law
THE CYNEFIN CENTRE: NAVIGATING COMPLEXITY IN SOCIAL SYSTEMS
MAPPING DISPOSITIONS AND NUDGE THEORY
0 20 40 60 80 100
020406080100
Doing it Right
Anintensedrivetoachieve
0 20 40 60 80 100
020406080100
Doing it Right
Welldefinedprocessesandprocedures
Material in this presentation is either Copyright © 2016 Bangor University or Cognitive Edge Pte Ltd.. All Rights Reserved. Protected in part by copyright, patent and trademark and other law
THE CYNEFIN CENTRE: NAVIGATING COMPLEXITY IN SOCIAL SYSTEMS
… AND ‘FRACTAL’ MANAGEMENT
20 40 60 80 100
020406080
Doing it Right
Anintensedrivetoachieve
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
20406080100
Over the top stressful
Pressurefrommanagement
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
020406080100
Over the top stressful
Pressurefrommanagement
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
020406080100
Over the top stressful
Pressurefromself
0 20 40 60 80 100
020406080100
Self Imposed
Anintensedrivetoachieve
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
0.00.20.40.60.81.0
Freedom too far
Deadlinestoofar
“the English verb ‘to manage’ was originally
derived from the Italian maneggiare, meaning
to handle and train horses. .... the emphasis
is on learning with, abiding with, adapting to,
respecting, and working with another
complex entity: the horse and rider as co-
evolving brambles in a wider thicket of social
traditions surrounding beauty and form.
Around the early 18th century, this original
meaning merged with the French term
menage, or household, making it easier to
adapt the meaning of the combined term
manage to the metaphor of the obedient
machine, to the corridors of power, and to
the actions of controlling and directing.”
Kurtz, C.F.; Snowden, D.J. (2003). "The new dynamics of strategy:
Sense-making in a complex and complicated world"
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Complexity, context and collaboration from manufacturing software to creating a service relationship by Dave Snowden

  • 1. Copyright © 2016 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201 EVERY CORPSE ON EVEREST WAS ONCE AN EXTREMELY MOTIVATED PERSON, HIGHLY ENGAGED WITH INSPIRED LEADERS
  • 2. Material in this presentation is either Copyright © 2016 Bangor University or Cognitive Edge Pte Ltd.. All Rights Reserved. Protected in part by copyright, patent and trademark and other law THE CYNEFIN CENTRE: NAVIGATING COMPLEXITY IN SOCIAL SYSTEMS ISSUES WITH CASE BASED EVIDENCE
  • 4. Material in this presentation is either Copyright © 2016 Bangor University or Cognitive Edge Pte Ltd.. All Rights Reserved. Protected in part by copyright, patent and trademark and other law THE CYNEFIN CENTRE: NAVIGATING COMPLEXITY IN SOCIAL SYSTEMS DIVERSITY OF PERSPECTIVE, WORKING WITH CHAOS
  • 5. Copyright © 2016 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201 COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS DEALING WITH INHERENT UNCERTAINTY
  • 6. Material in this presentation is either Copyright © 2016 Bangor University or Cognitive Edge Pte Ltd.. All Rights Reserved. Protected in part by copyright, patent and trademark and other law …IT’S COMPLEX IF THE EVIDENCE SUPPORTS CONFLICTING HYPOTHESES AND CONTRADICTION CAN NOT BE RESOLVED WITHIN THE AVAILABLE TIME THEN …
  • 7. Material in this presentation is either Copyright © 2016 Bangor University or Cognitive Edge Pte Ltd.. All Rights Reserved. Protected in part by copyright, patent and trademark and other law THE CYNEFIN CENTRE: NAVIGATING COMPLEXITY IN SOCIAL SYSTEMS CYNEFIN A SENSE-MAKING FRAMEWORK … Complicated Governing constraints sense-analyse-respond Good Practice Obvious Rigid constraints sense-categorise-respond Best Practice Chaotic Absence of constraints act-sense-respond Novel Practice Complex Enabling constraints probe-sense-respond Emergent Practice Cynefin allows us to understand how to act in different contexts no domain is better than any other
  • 8. Material in this presentation is either Copyright © 2016 Bangor University or Cognitive Edge Pte Ltd.. All Rights Reserved. Protected in part by copyright, patent and trademark and other law UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES THE ONLY INEVITABILITY
  • 9. Material in this presentation is either Copyright © 2016 Bangor University or Cognitive Edge Pte Ltd.. All Rights Reserved. Protected in part by copyright, patent and trademark and other law THE CYNEFIN CENTRE: NAVIGATING COMPLEXITY IN SOCIAL SYSTEMS PROBING TO UNDERSTAND ▸ All experiments must be: ▸ Safe to fail ▸ coherent ▸ take place in parallel over the same time period ▸ Within the portfolio: ▸ there must be contradiction ▸ at least one must be naive ▸ optional one or more can be oblique
  • 10. Material in this presentation is either Copyright © 2016 Bangor University or Cognitive Edge Pte Ltd.. All Rights Reserved. Protected in part by copyright, patent and trademark and other law THE CYNEFIN CENTRE: NAVIGATING COMPLEXITY IN SOCIAL SYSTEMS CYNEFIN A SENSE-MAKING FRAMEWORK Complicated Obvious Chaotic Complex It's not just about the domains it's also dyamics Managing continuous flow requires radically different architecture
  • 11. Copyright © 2016 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201 UNARTICULATED NEEDS
  • 12. Material in this presentation is either Copyright © 2016 Bangor University or Cognitive Edge Pte Ltd.. All Rights Reserved. Protected in part by copyright, patent and trademark and other law THE CYNEFIN CENTRE: NAVIGATING COMPLEXITY IN SOCIAL SYSTEMS MAPPING DISPOSITIONS AND NUDGE THEORY 0 20 40 60 80 100 020406080100 Doing it Right Anintensedrivetoachieve 0 20 40 60 80 100 020406080100 Doing it Right Welldefinedprocessesandprocedures
  • 13. Material in this presentation is either Copyright © 2016 Bangor University or Cognitive Edge Pte Ltd.. All Rights Reserved. Protected in part by copyright, patent and trademark and other law THE CYNEFIN CENTRE: NAVIGATING COMPLEXITY IN SOCIAL SYSTEMS … AND ‘FRACTAL’ MANAGEMENT 20 40 60 80 100 020406080 Doing it Right Anintensedrivetoachieve 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 20406080100 Over the top stressful Pressurefrommanagement 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 020406080100 Over the top stressful Pressurefrommanagement 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 020406080100 Over the top stressful Pressurefromself 0 20 40 60 80 100 020406080100 Self Imposed Anintensedrivetoachieve 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.00.20.40.60.81.0 Freedom too far Deadlinestoofar
  • 14. “the English verb ‘to manage’ was originally derived from the Italian maneggiare, meaning to handle and train horses. .... the emphasis is on learning with, abiding with, adapting to, respecting, and working with another complex entity: the horse and rider as co- evolving brambles in a wider thicket of social traditions surrounding beauty and form. Around the early 18th century, this original meaning merged with the French term menage, or household, making it easier to adapt the meaning of the combined term manage to the metaphor of the obedient machine, to the corridors of power, and to the actions of controlling and directing.” Kurtz, C.F.; Snowden, D.J. (2003). "The new dynamics of strategy: Sense-making in a complex and complicated world"
  • 15. GOLD SPONSORS BRONZE SPONSOR SUPPORTER MEDIA PARTNERS SPONSORS & PARTNERS