EC-Earth Climate Modelling Activities - Ray McGrath, Met Eireann


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Presentation from the workshop 'Informing and Enabling a Climate Resilient Ireland”' - held 23 March 2012. This event launched 2 EPA Climate Change Research Programme reports:
CCRP9 'Ireland adapts to Climate Change' and CCRP10 'Integrating Climate Change Adaptation into Sectoral Policies in Ireland'

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EC-Earth Climate Modelling Activities - Ray McGrath, Met Eireann

  1. 1. EC-Earth Climate Modelling Activities Ray McGrath, Met Éireann“Informing and Enabling a Climate Resilient Ireland” EPA, 23 March 2012
  2. 2. Climate Modelling• Broad details of ‘climate change’ are known• Impacts at local/regional level still uncertain• Main interest: precipitation extremes Dundrum Town Center – Oct 2011
  3. 3. The climate haschanged ~5% wetter formean annualrainfall
  4. 4. Changes in intense rainfall (1981-2010 v 1961-1990) Overall, the number of days with intense rainfall (>10mm) has increased ~7% Locally, the changes can exceed 20% For 5mm and 1mm thresholds the mean changes are 5% and 2-3% No spatial trend Naive argument: warming increases moisture in air (~7%/degree). Mean rainfall increasing ~3-4%/degree but extremes increasing at higher rate. Climate models underestimate the extremes.
  5. 5. Global picture
  6. 6. Is climate change increasing the current risk of flooding? Nature 470, Feb. 2011 report Modelled Autumn 2000 England/Wales flooding with/ without current warming and greenhouse gas emissions Results: 20th century greenhouse gas emissions increased risk of these floods by more than 20%.Environment Agency, 2001
  7. 7. EC-Earth: European consortium (29 Institutes) developing/running an ‘Earth System Model’ – ensemble approach Advantage in having global climate modelling capability in Ireland: •‘Big picture’ of climate, and climate model errors •Data access for driving regional models. •Contributing to international effort (IPCC) In 2007 Met Éireann, ICHEC and UCD became partners in EC-Earth
  8. 8. EC-Earth Simulations Experiment No. Years Background Spin-up 1370 Pre-1850 greenhouse gas concentrations Control 450 continuation of the spin-up runHistorical Period GHG concentration increasing (1850-2005) (ensemble of 14)Future Scenarios RCP 4.5/ 8.5 greenhouse gas scenarios (2006-2100) (ensemble of 28 i.e. 2 for each RCP) Decadal runs Focus on near future (1960-2035) 10 anomaly initialisation simulationsHigh resolution Target ~25km (~2000-2030)
  9. 9. EC-Earth Climate simulations
  10. 10. EC-Earth: Differences in 99 percentile values of max daily temperature 2071-2100 v 1971-2000 RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5
  11. 11. Winter mean precipitation differences:2071-2100 relative to 1961-1990 (RCP 4.5)
  12. 12. Summer mean precipitation differences:2071-2100 relative to 1961-1990 (RCP 4.5)
  13. 13. What the EC-Earth model simulations suggest for IrelandChanges in the mean precipitation towards 2100: Wetter winters – increases ~5% (RCP 4.5) -15% (RCP8.5) Drier summers – decreases ~ 15-20% Other seasons also wetter but to a lesser extent.Changes in extreme/heavy precipitation events are likely to be positive across all seasons and exceed changes in the mean. Need regional climate modelling to tease out the details.
  14. 14. Downscaling the EC-Earth DataEC-Earth 125km Grid 4km Grid
  15. 15. Climate Projection for Extreme Precipitation Number of Days with Precipitation > 70mmChanges relative tocurrent climate =>
  16. 16. Climate model outputs All EC-Earth data freely available. Standard datasets delivered to CMIP5 via BADC for consideration by IPCC/AR5 Regional climate modelling in progress through EPA funded Fellowships - results will be available through ICHEC and (in a more digestible form) through the EPA Climate Information Platform.
  17. 17. Where to get the EC-Earth Data Register on BADC (British Atmospheric Data Centre): Look under CMIP5 experiments.
  18. 18. AcknowledgementsMet Éireann: Emily Gleeson, Seamus Walsh, Dave FitzgeraldICHEC: Alastair McKinstryUCD: Paul Nolan
  19. 19. June 2008: C4I - first regional climate modelling project in Regional changes in rainfallIreland summarised expected seasonal change (%) in rainfall DJF MAM “2021-2060 relative to 1961-2000 Wetter in autumn and winter: 5-10% increase in mid century, increasing 15-25% towards the end of the century. Summers are drier: 5-10% decrease for 2021-2060; 10-18% decrease towards the end of the century. Regional details are unreliable” JJA SAN