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COACHING START-UPS UNDER CONDITIONS
OF EXTREME UNCERTAINTIES
High-Tech Gründerfonds | Family Day 2016
Bonn, Germany | May 31st, 2016
Bernhard Doll | doll@orangehills.de
Note: Optimised for presentation with tablets
Start-ups can be
game changers
in many
industries...
…and sometimes
a great way to burn
your money.
Many start-ups fail…
…because they build things nobody wants.
6
A	typical	challenge:		
From		technology	...
...to	func�onal	prototypes
8
Affordable	3D	
prin�ng	hardware	
Easy-to-use	
so�ware	(even	
for	non-
engineers)	
(Costly)	consumables	to	
make	your	CFO	happy	
...to		products			
and		services		for	people
...to	innova�ve		business	models.
Technology	
Customers	
Economics	
Strategy	
Is	the	innova�on	
desired			by	
customers	and	
users?	
Is	the	innova�on	
technologically	
feasible			?	 Is	the	innova�on	
suitable		to	reach	your	
strategic	targets?	
Is	the	innova�on	
economically		viable		?	
Innovation
Innovation is about
dealing with uncertainties
in areas where you are not
expert in.
Building start-ups is still in
many ways an unstructured
and chaotic process.
How do you deal
with uncertainties?
Ignoring the level
of uncertainties by
pretending the
start-up process
can be planned
1
2
�me	
level	of	
uncertain�es	
Embracing
uncertainties by
structuring the
learning process in
the most efficient
way
We	want	start-ups	teams	to	work	with	the	
precision	of	surgeons,	architects	or	scien�sts…
Business designStrategic	Management	
SCRUM	
Kanban	
Design	Thinking	
(Social)	Prototyping	
Business	Modelling	
Behavioral	Economics	
Lean	Startup	
Team	Research	
How	do	we	do	
business	in	the	
future?	
What	is	our	
bet	on	the	
future?	
How	can	we	
excite	
customers	with	
simple	means?	
How	do	we	
work	together	
as	a	team?	
…with
What	is	our	
bet	on	the	
future?	
How	can	we	
excite	
customers	with	
simple	means?	
Business Design is an integrative
process model to design new
business under conditions of
extreme uncertainties.
visual	worksheets	
7	weeks	per	itera�on
Let’s talk about a startup
that didn’t fail…
Germany’s	largest	distributor	of		
residen�al	mortgages
How	do	we	
do	business	
in	the	
future?	
© 2016 Orange HillsTM GmbH. All rights reserved. Inspired by www.businessmodelgeneration.com.
BUSINESS MODEL Team DateIteration 1 2 3
Target groups
Who are our sales targets and
who will be using our offerings?
Resources Partners
Primary
What is our primary
customer and user
segment that unlocks
the most value in our
business and is easily
accessible?
Customers Users
InvestmentsCostsPricing & revenue streamsPattern
How much money do we need to spend before we earn?What are our revenue streams and how much do our customers pay (per unit)?How, when and how often do we charge our customers? What are the most important costs of creating and delivering the offerings?
Brand & messages Offerings
Channels
Relationships
Channels
Processes
Profit formula
What (internal) key resources do we need
to create and deliver the offerings?
Who are our (external) key partners
to create and deliver the offerings?
What bundle of products and services do we offer
to our customers and users?
How do we want our brand to be perceived and
what is our story to sell the offerings?
Through which channels do our
customers and users want
to be reached?
What kinds of relationships do
our customers and users expect?
Through which channels do our partners
want to be reached?
What (internal) key processes do we need
to create and deliver the offerings?
Delivery R&D
Design your business in your browser | http://www.rapidmodeler.deBusiness Design GAME | Playing seriously with innovation Download | http://blog.orangehills.de/#bml_en
Orange HillsTM
GmbH | www.orangehills.de | Follow us on Twitter: @orangehillsgmbh
What job(s) are our
customers and users
trying to get done?
Job(s) to
get done
Pains
Gains
What do we do better than
our competitors to create
the value, which is hard
to copy?
Unfair
advantage
What value do we create
for customers and users
to get their job(s) done?
Core
value
DNA
Incremental
redesign
Disruptive
innovation
Use the “Hypotheses &
Experiments Canvas” to
challenge your business
model by revealing critical
assumptions and simple
ways to test them.
Use the ”Target Groups
Canvas” to segment
customers and users based
on behavioural attributes.
How	do	we	
do	business	
in	the	
future?	
The	first	business	model	of	interhyp.de...
“Interhyp is Germany‘s
largest distributor of
residential mortgages.
As a broker, Interhyp
does not act as a lender
but instead selects the
best mortgages for its
customers among offers
from over 250
commercial banks,
saving banks and
insurance companies.
We focus on
competent, personal
and objective
consulting by our
approximately 316
mortgage consultants.
Private customers
receive advice from our
homepage
www.interhyp.de and
through 23 regional
offices in key German
cities.”
Source: Interhyp Annual
Report 2011
…relied	on	digital	sales	channels	and	a	
call-center	to	interact	with	customers.
What was their “big bet”
on the future in their sales
approach?
1.  Discuss this question with your
right neighbor
2.  Describe your key hypothesis and
how you would test it to manage
your uncertainties
What	is	our	
bet	on	the	
future?
H: “They believed…”
E: “I would have tested H
by…”
1.  Discuss this question with your
right neighbor
2.  Describe your key hypothesis and
how you would test it to manage
your uncertainties
What	is	our	
bet	on	the	
future?
What	is	our	
bet	on	the	
future?	
© 2016 Orange HillsTM GmbH. All rights reserved. Design your business in your browser | http://www.rapidmodeler.deBusiness Design GAME | Playing seriously with innovation Download | http://blog.orangehills.de/#hyp_en
HYPOTHESES & EXPERIMENTS
Analogs
What things are new to us but we can learn from others
because they have proven that it just works?
What things are new to us, new to the market,
and we can’t learn from anyone?
+ Customers
+ Users
+ Brand & messages
+ Channels
+ Relationships
+ Offerings
+ Resources
+ Processes
+ Partners
+ Profit formula
+ Business DNA
Look at every single element of your
business model to find analogs and antilogs:
Test focus
Importance
Uncertainties
A+ A-
Make sure your analogs are
reliable sources to learn from
others. In many cases, analogies
eventually turn out to be somehow
different to your business
when you look under the hood.
What experiments are required to explore antilogs even further
before you turn them into testable hypotheses?
Antilogs Exploration
Validation
Experiments
How can we test the identified
hypotheses with the least effort?
Hypotheses
Which antilogs are both
very important and uncertain?
Lean offerings
post-launch
Experiment
pre-launch
Lean offerings
post-launch
Experiment
pre-launch
Lean offerings
post-launch
Experiment
pre-launch
Lean offerings
post-launch
Experiment
pre-launch
Lean offerings
post-launch
Experiment
pre-launch
“We do...” “We are convinced, if...”
incl.
+ threshold
+ timeframe
“We do...” “We are convinced, if...”
incl.
+ threshold
+ timeframe
“...which will result in...”
What hypotheses grow out of
relevant antilogs in our test focus?
“We believe...”
How to test hypotheses?
1. Break down a high-level hypothesis into a set of low-level hypotheses.
2. Run experiments, if it is sufficient to reflect the status quo or
possible to simulate affected parts of the future in a realistic way.
3. In any other case, build a MVP first and test the hypotheses afterwards.
Never let people predict the future – not even their own behaviour.
It‘s a waste of time! ...and keep in mind that most hypotheses
can’t be proven “right”. It’s about getting a professional gut feeling.
Orange HillsTM
GmbH | www.orangehills.de | Follow us on Twitter: @orangehillsgmbh
“...which will result in...”“We believe...”
“We do...” “We are convinced, if...”
incl.
+ threshold
+ timeframe
“We do...” “We are convinced, if...”
incl.
+ threshold
+ timeframe
“We do...” “We are convinced, if...”
incl.
+ threshold
+ timeframe
“...which will result in...”“We believe...”
“...which will result in...”“We believe...”
“...which will result in...”“We believe...”
Team DateIteration 1 2 3
Use the “Action Plan
Canvas” to investigate
important analogs even
further to see what we can
learn from others.
Use the “Action Plan Canvas”
to define and assign tasks to
run your experiments in
short cycles.
Use the “Lean Offerings
Canvas” and start designing
your first products and
services to hit the market
and excite customers.
Will	the	big	
banks	accept	us	
as	business	
partners?	
Do	people	trust	
an	IT	pla�orm	for		
mortgage	
business?	
Can	we	prevent	
customers	from	
taking	our	rates	
and	defec�ng	to	
other	banks?	
…that	X%	of	our	
visitors	on	
landing	page	
submit	an		
applica�on	
MVP	with	lean	
web	frontend	and	
closed	ALPHA	
community	
…applica�ons	in	
our	database	and		
customers	
connected	with	
banks		
...that	X	out	of	50	
close	the	deal	
within	MVP	test	
run	of	2	weeks	
...that	X	big	banks	
join	the	pla�orm	
and	transfer	their	
interest	rates	daily	
LOI	nego�a�ons	
with	banks	(S,	M,	
L)	
...wide	range	of	
financial	
products	in	
database	
X	out	of	10	big	
banks	in	
Germany	sign	an	
LOI	within	next	4	
months	
...
“Interhyp is Germany‘s
largest distributor of
residential mortgages.
As a broker, Interhyp
does not act as a lender
but instead selects the
best mortgages for its
customers among offers
from over 250
commercial banks,
saving banks and
insurance companies.
We focus on
competent, personal
and objective
consulting by our
approximately 316
mortgage consultants.
Private customers
receive advice from our
homepage
www.interhyp.de and
through 23 regional
offices in key German
cities.”
Source: Interhyp Annual
Report 2011
Interhyp.de	today	with		
100	physical	offices	across	Germany.
What	is	our	
bet	on	the	
future?	
What’s your “big bet” on
the future in your real
startup today?
Use the next five minutes to reflect on
your current business(es) as founder,
investor, coach etc.
core	tools	
© 2016 Orange HillsTM GmbH. All rights reserved.
LEAN OFFERINGS / MVP Team DateIteration 1 2 3
Functional requirements
Design your business in your browser | http://www.rapidmodeler.deBusiness Design GAME | Playing seriously with innovation Download | http://blog.orangehills.de/#mvp_en
Should have
What is the extended set of user stories
that increases the value of the product
and/or service to the next level?
What is a lean offering / MVP (= Minimum Viable Product)?
A minimal set of user stories that fulfills at least
the following requirements:
+ Are your hypotheses covered?
+ Can you charge your customers?
+ Is your DNA embedded?
+ Does your mother like it?
To define user stories, look through
the lenses of customers and users.
Could have
What are optional user stories
that can help us better serve our
customers and users in the future?
F
Hypotheses
Keep in mind that each user story should
be independent of any other user story.
Competitive benchmark
Non-functional requirements
What user stories has our No. 1 competitor (”DNA fit”)
considered in its offering to customers and users?
Fc
What non-functional requirements should be
embedded in our product and/or service?
NF
...what non-functional requirements do they fulfill?
NFc
Ease of implementation
DNAfit
Must have
What is the minimal set of user stories
customers and users expect to be implemented, in order
to deliver the core value of the product and/or service?
Orange HillsTM
GmbH | www.orangehills.de | Follow us on Twitter: @orangehillsgmbh
What value do we create
for customers and users
to get their job(s) done?
Core
value
What do we do better than
our competitors to create
the value, which is hard
to copy?
Unfair
advantage
DNA
What job(s) are our
customers and users
trying to get done?
Job(s) to
get done
Pains
Gains
Use the “Action Plan Canvas”
to define and assign tasks to
implement your lean
offerings in short cycles.
© 2016 Orange HillsTM GmbH. All rights reserved. Design your business in your browser | http://www.rapidmodeler.deBusiness Design GAME | Playing seriously with innovation Download | http://blog.orangehills.de/#hyp_en
HYPOTHESES & EXPERIMENTS
Analogs
What things are new to us but we can learn from others
because they have proven that it just works?
What things are new to us, new to the market,
and we can’t learn from anyone?
+ Customers
+ Users
+ Brand & messages
+ Channels
+ Relationships
+ Offerings
+ Resources
+ Processes
+ Partners
+ Profit formula
+ Business DNA
Look at every single element of your
business model to find analogs and antilogs:
Test focus
Importance
Uncertainties
A+ A-
Make sure your analogs are
reliable sources to learn from
others. In many cases, analogies
eventually turn out to be somehow
different to your business
when you look under the hood.
What experiments are required to explore antilogs even further
before you turn them into testable hypotheses?
Antilogs Exploration
Validation
Experiments
How can we test the identified
hypotheses with the least effort?
Hypotheses
Which antilogs are both
very important and uncertain?
Lean offerings
post-launch
Experiment
pre-launch
Lean offerings
post-launch
Experiment
pre-launch
Lean offerings
post-launch
Experiment
pre-launch
Lean offerings
post-launch
Experiment
pre-launch
Lean offerings
post-launch
Experiment
pre-launch
“We do...” “We are convinced, if...”
incl.
+ threshold
+ timeframe
“We do...” “We are convinced, if...”
incl.
+ threshold
+ timeframe
“...which will result in...”
What hypotheses grow out of
relevant antilogs in our test focus?
“We believe...”
How to test hypotheses?
1. Break down a high-level hypothesis into a set of low-level hypotheses.
2. Run experiments, if it is sufficient to reflect the status quo or
possible to simulate affected parts of the future in a realistic way.
3. In any other case, build a MVP first and test the hypotheses afterwards.
Never let people predict the future – not even their own behaviour.
It‘s a waste of time! ...and keep in mind that most hypotheses
can’t be proven “right”. It’s about getting a professional gut feeling.
Orange HillsTM
GmbH | www.orangehills.de | Follow us on Twitter: @orangehillsgmbh
“...which will result in...”“We believe...”
“We do...” “We are convinced, if...”
incl.
+ threshold
+ timeframe
“We do...” “We are convinced, if...”
incl.
+ threshold
+ timeframe
“We do...” “We are convinced, if...”
incl.
+ threshold
+ timeframe
“...which will result in...”“We believe...”
“...which will result in...”“We believe...”
“...which will result in...”“We believe...”
Team DateIteration 1 2 3
Use the “Action Plan
Canvas” to investigate
important analogs even
further to see what we can
learn from others.
Use the “Action Plan Canvas”
to define and assign tasks to
run your experiments in
short cycles.
Use the “Lean Offerings
Canvas” and start designing
your first products and
services to hit the market
and excite customers.
How	can	we	
excite	
customers	with	
simple	means?	
What	is	our	
bet	on	the	
future?	
...and	many	other	tools:	
+  Business	Ecosystem	
+  Customer	Journey	
+  KPIs	
+  Target	Groups	
+  Compe��ve	Landscape	
+  Financial	Sanity	Check	
+  Business	Model	Inspirator	
+  UI	Design	
7	weeks	per	itera�on
+  Agile process design to deal with uncertainties
+  Easy way to manage the “unmanageable”
+  Holistic thinking in business models, not just products
+  Strong emphasis on doing, not planning
+  Systematic learning based on evidence, not gut feeling
+  Prototyping to support learning and team development
+  Lean product design to generate cash quickly
+  Rigid task management with short cycles to get teams into flow
core	tools	
© 2016 Orange HillsTM GmbH. All rights reserved.
LEAN OFFERINGS / MVP Team DateIteration 1 2 3
Functional requirements
Design your business in your browser | http://www.rapidmodeler.deBusiness Design GAME | Playing seriously with innovation Download | http://blog.orangehills.de/#mvp_en
Should have
What is the extended set of user stories
that increases the value of the product
and/or service to the next level?
What is a lean offering / MVP (= Minimum Viable Product)?
A minimal set of user stories that fulfills at least
the following requirements:
+ Are your hypotheses covered?
+ Can you charge your customers?
+ Is your DNA embedded?
+ Does your mother like it?
To define user stories, look through
the lenses of customers and users.
Could have
What are optional user stories
that can help us better serve our
customers and users in the future?
F
Hypotheses
Keep in mind that each user story should
be independent of any other user story.
Competitive benchmark
Non-functional requirements
What user stories has our No. 1 competitor (”DNA fit”)
considered in its offering to customers and users?
Fc
What non-functional requirements should be
embedded in our product and/or service?
NF
...what non-functional requirements do they fulfill?
NFc
Ease of implementation
DNAfit
Must have
What is the minimal set of user stories
customers and users expect to be implemented, in order
to deliver the core value of the product and/or service?
Orange HillsTM
GmbH | www.orangehills.de | Follow us on Twitter: @orangehillsgmbh
What value do we create
for customers and users
to get their job(s) done?
Core
value
What do we do better than
our competitors to create
the value, which is hard
to copy?
Unfair
advantage
DNA
What job(s) are our
customers and users
trying to get done?
Job(s) to
get done
Pains
Gains
Use the “Action Plan Canvas”
to define and assign tasks to
implement your lean
offerings in short cycles.
© 2016 Orange HillsTM GmbH. All rights reserved. Design your business in your browser | http://www.rapidmodeler.deBusiness Design GAME | Playing seriously with innovation Download | http://blog.orangehills.de/#hyp_en
HYPOTHESES & EXPERIMENTS
Analogs
What things are new to us but we can learn from others
because they have proven that it just works?
What things are new to us, new to the market,
and we can’t learn from anyone?
+ Customers
+ Users
+ Brand & messages
+ Channels
+ Relationships
+ Offerings
+ Resources
+ Processes
+ Partners
+ Profit formula
+ Business DNA
Look at every single element of your
business model to find analogs and antilogs:
Test focus
Importance
Uncertainties
A+ A-
Make sure your analogs are
reliable sources to learn from
others. In many cases, analogies
eventually turn out to be somehow
different to your business
when you look under the hood.
What experiments are required to explore antilogs even further
before you turn them into testable hypotheses?
Antilogs Exploration
Validation
Experiments
How can we test the identified
hypotheses with the least effort?
Hypotheses
Which antilogs are both
very important and uncertain?
Lean offerings
post-launch
Experiment
pre-launch
Lean offerings
post-launch
Experiment
pre-launch
Lean offerings
post-launch
Experiment
pre-launch
Lean offerings
post-launch
Experiment
pre-launch
Lean offerings
post-launch
Experiment
pre-launch
“We do...” “We are convinced, if...”
incl.
+ threshold
+ timeframe
“We do...” “We are convinced, if...”
incl.
+ threshold
+ timeframe
“...which will result in...”
What hypotheses grow out of
relevant antilogs in our test focus?
“We believe...”
How to test hypotheses?
1. Break down a high-level hypothesis into a set of low-level hypotheses.
2. Run experiments, if it is sufficient to reflect the status quo or
possible to simulate affected parts of the future in a realistic way.
3. In any other case, build a MVP first and test the hypotheses afterwards.
Never let people predict the future – not even their own behaviour.
It‘s a waste of time! ...and keep in mind that most hypotheses
can’t be proven “right”. It’s about getting a professional gut feeling.
Orange HillsTM
GmbH | www.orangehills.de | Follow us on Twitter: @orangehillsgmbh
“...which will result in...”“We believe...”
“We do...” “We are convinced, if...”
incl.
+ threshold
+ timeframe
“We do...” “We are convinced, if...”
incl.
+ threshold
+ timeframe
“We do...” “We are convinced, if...”
incl.
+ threshold
+ timeframe
“...which will result in...”“We believe...”
“...which will result in...”“We believe...”
“...which will result in...”“We believe...”
Team DateIteration 1 2 3
Use the “Action Plan
Canvas” to investigate
important analogs even
further to see what we can
learn from others.
Use the “Action Plan Canvas”
to define and assign tasks to
run your experiments in
short cycles.
Use the “Lean Offerings
Canvas” and start designing
your first products and
services to hit the market
and excite customers.
How	can	we	
excite	
customers	with	
simple	means?	
What	is	our	
bet	on	the	
future?	
...and	many	other	tools:	
+  Business	Ecosystem	
+  Customer	Journey	
+  KPIs	
+  Target	Groups	
+  Compe��ve	Landscape	
+  Financial	Sanity	Check	
+  Business	Model	Inspirator	
+  UI	Design	
7	weeks	per	itera�on	
Download	for	free:	
h�p://bit.ly/1TOdoG3	
Thank	you.
Dr. Bernhard Doll
Orange Hills GmbH
Sendlinger Str. 25
80331 München, Germany
E. doll@orangehills.de
T. +49-89-4520545-0
F. +49-89-4520545-69
Follow us on Twitter:
@orangehillsgmbh

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Coaching startups under conditions of extreme uncertainties

  • 1. COACHING START-UPS UNDER CONDITIONS OF EXTREME UNCERTAINTIES High-Tech Gründerfonds | Family Day 2016 Bonn, Germany | May 31st, 2016 Bernhard Doll | doll@orangehills.de Note: Optimised for presentation with tablets
  • 2. Start-ups can be game changers in many industries...
  • 3. …and sometimes a great way to burn your money.
  • 5. …because they build things nobody wants.
  • 11. Innovation is about dealing with uncertainties in areas where you are not expert in.
  • 12. Building start-ups is still in many ways an unstructured and chaotic process.
  • 13. How do you deal with uncertainties?
  • 14. Ignoring the level of uncertainties by pretending the start-up process can be planned 1 2 �me level of uncertain�es Embracing uncertainties by structuring the learning process in the most efficient way
  • 17. What is our bet on the future? How can we excite customers with simple means? Business Design is an integrative process model to design new business under conditions of extreme uncertainties. visual worksheets 7 weeks per itera�on
  • 18. Let’s talk about a startup that didn’t fail…
  • 20. How do we do business in the future? © 2016 Orange HillsTM GmbH. All rights reserved. Inspired by www.businessmodelgeneration.com. BUSINESS MODEL Team DateIteration 1 2 3 Target groups Who are our sales targets and who will be using our offerings? Resources Partners Primary What is our primary customer and user segment that unlocks the most value in our business and is easily accessible? Customers Users InvestmentsCostsPricing & revenue streamsPattern How much money do we need to spend before we earn?What are our revenue streams and how much do our customers pay (per unit)?How, when and how often do we charge our customers? What are the most important costs of creating and delivering the offerings? Brand & messages Offerings Channels Relationships Channels Processes Profit formula What (internal) key resources do we need to create and deliver the offerings? Who are our (external) key partners to create and deliver the offerings? What bundle of products and services do we offer to our customers and users? How do we want our brand to be perceived and what is our story to sell the offerings? Through which channels do our customers and users want to be reached? What kinds of relationships do our customers and users expect? Through which channels do our partners want to be reached? What (internal) key processes do we need to create and deliver the offerings? Delivery R&D Design your business in your browser | http://www.rapidmodeler.deBusiness Design GAME | Playing seriously with innovation Download | http://blog.orangehills.de/#bml_en Orange HillsTM GmbH | www.orangehills.de | Follow us on Twitter: @orangehillsgmbh What job(s) are our customers and users trying to get done? Job(s) to get done Pains Gains What do we do better than our competitors to create the value, which is hard to copy? Unfair advantage What value do we create for customers and users to get their job(s) done? Core value DNA Incremental redesign Disruptive innovation Use the “Hypotheses & Experiments Canvas” to challenge your business model by revealing critical assumptions and simple ways to test them. Use the ”Target Groups Canvas” to segment customers and users based on behavioural attributes.
  • 22. “Interhyp is Germany‘s largest distributor of residential mortgages. As a broker, Interhyp does not act as a lender but instead selects the best mortgages for its customers among offers from over 250 commercial banks, saving banks and insurance companies. We focus on competent, personal and objective consulting by our approximately 316 mortgage consultants. Private customers receive advice from our homepage www.interhyp.de and through 23 regional offices in key German cities.” Source: Interhyp Annual Report 2011 …relied on digital sales channels and a call-center to interact with customers.
  • 23. What was their “big bet” on the future in their sales approach? 1.  Discuss this question with your right neighbor 2.  Describe your key hypothesis and how you would test it to manage your uncertainties What is our bet on the future?
  • 24. H: “They believed…” E: “I would have tested H by…” 1.  Discuss this question with your right neighbor 2.  Describe your key hypothesis and how you would test it to manage your uncertainties What is our bet on the future?
  • 25. What is our bet on the future? © 2016 Orange HillsTM GmbH. All rights reserved. Design your business in your browser | http://www.rapidmodeler.deBusiness Design GAME | Playing seriously with innovation Download | http://blog.orangehills.de/#hyp_en HYPOTHESES & EXPERIMENTS Analogs What things are new to us but we can learn from others because they have proven that it just works? What things are new to us, new to the market, and we can’t learn from anyone? + Customers + Users + Brand & messages + Channels + Relationships + Offerings + Resources + Processes + Partners + Profit formula + Business DNA Look at every single element of your business model to find analogs and antilogs: Test focus Importance Uncertainties A+ A- Make sure your analogs are reliable sources to learn from others. In many cases, analogies eventually turn out to be somehow different to your business when you look under the hood. What experiments are required to explore antilogs even further before you turn them into testable hypotheses? Antilogs Exploration Validation Experiments How can we test the identified hypotheses with the least effort? Hypotheses Which antilogs are both very important and uncertain? Lean offerings post-launch Experiment pre-launch Lean offerings post-launch Experiment pre-launch Lean offerings post-launch Experiment pre-launch Lean offerings post-launch Experiment pre-launch Lean offerings post-launch Experiment pre-launch “We do...” “We are convinced, if...” incl. + threshold + timeframe “We do...” “We are convinced, if...” incl. + threshold + timeframe “...which will result in...” What hypotheses grow out of relevant antilogs in our test focus? “We believe...” How to test hypotheses? 1. Break down a high-level hypothesis into a set of low-level hypotheses. 2. Run experiments, if it is sufficient to reflect the status quo or possible to simulate affected parts of the future in a realistic way. 3. In any other case, build a MVP first and test the hypotheses afterwards. Never let people predict the future – not even their own behaviour. It‘s a waste of time! ...and keep in mind that most hypotheses can’t be proven “right”. It’s about getting a professional gut feeling. Orange HillsTM GmbH | www.orangehills.de | Follow us on Twitter: @orangehillsgmbh “...which will result in...”“We believe...” “We do...” “We are convinced, if...” incl. + threshold + timeframe “We do...” “We are convinced, if...” incl. + threshold + timeframe “We do...” “We are convinced, if...” incl. + threshold + timeframe “...which will result in...”“We believe...” “...which will result in...”“We believe...” “...which will result in...”“We believe...” Team DateIteration 1 2 3 Use the “Action Plan Canvas” to investigate important analogs even further to see what we can learn from others. Use the “Action Plan Canvas” to define and assign tasks to run your experiments in short cycles. Use the “Lean Offerings Canvas” and start designing your first products and services to hit the market and excite customers. Will the big banks accept us as business partners? Do people trust an IT pla�orm for mortgage business? Can we prevent customers from taking our rates and defec�ng to other banks? …that X% of our visitors on landing page submit an applica�on MVP with lean web frontend and closed ALPHA community …applica�ons in our database and customers connected with banks ...that X out of 50 close the deal within MVP test run of 2 weeks ...that X big banks join the pla�orm and transfer their interest rates daily LOI nego�a�ons with banks (S, M, L) ...wide range of financial products in database X out of 10 big banks in Germany sign an LOI within next 4 months ...
  • 26. “Interhyp is Germany‘s largest distributor of residential mortgages. As a broker, Interhyp does not act as a lender but instead selects the best mortgages for its customers among offers from over 250 commercial banks, saving banks and insurance companies. We focus on competent, personal and objective consulting by our approximately 316 mortgage consultants. Private customers receive advice from our homepage www.interhyp.de and through 23 regional offices in key German cities.” Source: Interhyp Annual Report 2011 Interhyp.de today with 100 physical offices across Germany.
  • 27. What is our bet on the future? What’s your “big bet” on the future in your real startup today? Use the next five minutes to reflect on your current business(es) as founder, investor, coach etc.
  • 28. core tools © 2016 Orange HillsTM GmbH. All rights reserved. LEAN OFFERINGS / MVP Team DateIteration 1 2 3 Functional requirements Design your business in your browser | http://www.rapidmodeler.deBusiness Design GAME | Playing seriously with innovation Download | http://blog.orangehills.de/#mvp_en Should have What is the extended set of user stories that increases the value of the product and/or service to the next level? What is a lean offering / MVP (= Minimum Viable Product)? A minimal set of user stories that fulfills at least the following requirements: + Are your hypotheses covered? + Can you charge your customers? + Is your DNA embedded? + Does your mother like it? To define user stories, look through the lenses of customers and users. Could have What are optional user stories that can help us better serve our customers and users in the future? F Hypotheses Keep in mind that each user story should be independent of any other user story. Competitive benchmark Non-functional requirements What user stories has our No. 1 competitor (”DNA fit”) considered in its offering to customers and users? Fc What non-functional requirements should be embedded in our product and/or service? NF ...what non-functional requirements do they fulfill? NFc Ease of implementation DNAfit Must have What is the minimal set of user stories customers and users expect to be implemented, in order to deliver the core value of the product and/or service? Orange HillsTM GmbH | www.orangehills.de | Follow us on Twitter: @orangehillsgmbh What value do we create for customers and users to get their job(s) done? Core value What do we do better than our competitors to create the value, which is hard to copy? Unfair advantage DNA What job(s) are our customers and users trying to get done? Job(s) to get done Pains Gains Use the “Action Plan Canvas” to define and assign tasks to implement your lean offerings in short cycles. © 2016 Orange HillsTM GmbH. All rights reserved. Design your business in your browser | http://www.rapidmodeler.deBusiness Design GAME | Playing seriously with innovation Download | http://blog.orangehills.de/#hyp_en HYPOTHESES & EXPERIMENTS Analogs What things are new to us but we can learn from others because they have proven that it just works? What things are new to us, new to the market, and we can’t learn from anyone? + Customers + Users + Brand & messages + Channels + Relationships + Offerings + Resources + Processes + Partners + Profit formula + Business DNA Look at every single element of your business model to find analogs and antilogs: Test focus Importance Uncertainties A+ A- Make sure your analogs are reliable sources to learn from others. In many cases, analogies eventually turn out to be somehow different to your business when you look under the hood. What experiments are required to explore antilogs even further before you turn them into testable hypotheses? Antilogs Exploration Validation Experiments How can we test the identified hypotheses with the least effort? Hypotheses Which antilogs are both very important and uncertain? Lean offerings post-launch Experiment pre-launch Lean offerings post-launch Experiment pre-launch Lean offerings post-launch Experiment pre-launch Lean offerings post-launch Experiment pre-launch Lean offerings post-launch Experiment pre-launch “We do...” “We are convinced, if...” incl. + threshold + timeframe “We do...” “We are convinced, if...” incl. + threshold + timeframe “...which will result in...” What hypotheses grow out of relevant antilogs in our test focus? “We believe...” How to test hypotheses? 1. Break down a high-level hypothesis into a set of low-level hypotheses. 2. Run experiments, if it is sufficient to reflect the status quo or possible to simulate affected parts of the future in a realistic way. 3. In any other case, build a MVP first and test the hypotheses afterwards. Never let people predict the future – not even their own behaviour. It‘s a waste of time! ...and keep in mind that most hypotheses can’t be proven “right”. It’s about getting a professional gut feeling. Orange HillsTM GmbH | www.orangehills.de | Follow us on Twitter: @orangehillsgmbh “...which will result in...”“We believe...” “We do...” “We are convinced, if...” incl. + threshold + timeframe “We do...” “We are convinced, if...” incl. + threshold + timeframe “We do...” “We are convinced, if...” incl. + threshold + timeframe “...which will result in...”“We believe...” “...which will result in...”“We believe...” “...which will result in...”“We believe...” Team DateIteration 1 2 3 Use the “Action Plan Canvas” to investigate important analogs even further to see what we can learn from others. Use the “Action Plan Canvas” to define and assign tasks to run your experiments in short cycles. Use the “Lean Offerings Canvas” and start designing your first products and services to hit the market and excite customers. How can we excite customers with simple means? What is our bet on the future? ...and many other tools: +  Business Ecosystem +  Customer Journey +  KPIs +  Target Groups +  Compe��ve Landscape +  Financial Sanity Check +  Business Model Inspirator +  UI Design 7 weeks per itera�on
  • 29. +  Agile process design to deal with uncertainties +  Easy way to manage the “unmanageable” +  Holistic thinking in business models, not just products +  Strong emphasis on doing, not planning +  Systematic learning based on evidence, not gut feeling +  Prototyping to support learning and team development +  Lean product design to generate cash quickly +  Rigid task management with short cycles to get teams into flow
  • 30. core tools © 2016 Orange HillsTM GmbH. All rights reserved. LEAN OFFERINGS / MVP Team DateIteration 1 2 3 Functional requirements Design your business in your browser | http://www.rapidmodeler.deBusiness Design GAME | Playing seriously with innovation Download | http://blog.orangehills.de/#mvp_en Should have What is the extended set of user stories that increases the value of the product and/or service to the next level? What is a lean offering / MVP (= Minimum Viable Product)? A minimal set of user stories that fulfills at least the following requirements: + Are your hypotheses covered? + Can you charge your customers? + Is your DNA embedded? + Does your mother like it? To define user stories, look through the lenses of customers and users. Could have What are optional user stories that can help us better serve our customers and users in the future? F Hypotheses Keep in mind that each user story should be independent of any other user story. Competitive benchmark Non-functional requirements What user stories has our No. 1 competitor (”DNA fit”) considered in its offering to customers and users? Fc What non-functional requirements should be embedded in our product and/or service? NF ...what non-functional requirements do they fulfill? NFc Ease of implementation DNAfit Must have What is the minimal set of user stories customers and users expect to be implemented, in order to deliver the core value of the product and/or service? Orange HillsTM GmbH | www.orangehills.de | Follow us on Twitter: @orangehillsgmbh What value do we create for customers and users to get their job(s) done? Core value What do we do better than our competitors to create the value, which is hard to copy? Unfair advantage DNA What job(s) are our customers and users trying to get done? Job(s) to get done Pains Gains Use the “Action Plan Canvas” to define and assign tasks to implement your lean offerings in short cycles. © 2016 Orange HillsTM GmbH. All rights reserved. Design your business in your browser | http://www.rapidmodeler.deBusiness Design GAME | Playing seriously with innovation Download | http://blog.orangehills.de/#hyp_en HYPOTHESES & EXPERIMENTS Analogs What things are new to us but we can learn from others because they have proven that it just works? What things are new to us, new to the market, and we can’t learn from anyone? + Customers + Users + Brand & messages + Channels + Relationships + Offerings + Resources + Processes + Partners + Profit formula + Business DNA Look at every single element of your business model to find analogs and antilogs: Test focus Importance Uncertainties A+ A- Make sure your analogs are reliable sources to learn from others. In many cases, analogies eventually turn out to be somehow different to your business when you look under the hood. What experiments are required to explore antilogs even further before you turn them into testable hypotheses? Antilogs Exploration Validation Experiments How can we test the identified hypotheses with the least effort? Hypotheses Which antilogs are both very important and uncertain? Lean offerings post-launch Experiment pre-launch Lean offerings post-launch Experiment pre-launch Lean offerings post-launch Experiment pre-launch Lean offerings post-launch Experiment pre-launch Lean offerings post-launch Experiment pre-launch “We do...” “We are convinced, if...” incl. + threshold + timeframe “We do...” “We are convinced, if...” incl. + threshold + timeframe “...which will result in...” What hypotheses grow out of relevant antilogs in our test focus? “We believe...” How to test hypotheses? 1. Break down a high-level hypothesis into a set of low-level hypotheses. 2. Run experiments, if it is sufficient to reflect the status quo or possible to simulate affected parts of the future in a realistic way. 3. In any other case, build a MVP first and test the hypotheses afterwards. Never let people predict the future – not even their own behaviour. It‘s a waste of time! ...and keep in mind that most hypotheses can’t be proven “right”. It’s about getting a professional gut feeling. Orange HillsTM GmbH | www.orangehills.de | Follow us on Twitter: @orangehillsgmbh “...which will result in...”“We believe...” “We do...” “We are convinced, if...” incl. + threshold + timeframe “We do...” “We are convinced, if...” incl. + threshold + timeframe “We do...” “We are convinced, if...” incl. + threshold + timeframe “...which will result in...”“We believe...” “...which will result in...”“We believe...” “...which will result in...”“We believe...” Team DateIteration 1 2 3 Use the “Action Plan Canvas” to investigate important analogs even further to see what we can learn from others. Use the “Action Plan Canvas” to define and assign tasks to run your experiments in short cycles. Use the “Lean Offerings Canvas” and start designing your first products and services to hit the market and excite customers. How can we excite customers with simple means? What is our bet on the future? ...and many other tools: +  Business Ecosystem +  Customer Journey +  KPIs +  Target Groups +  Compe��ve Landscape +  Financial Sanity Check +  Business Model Inspirator +  UI Design 7 weeks per itera�on Download for free: h�p://bit.ly/1TOdoG3 Thank you.
  • 31. Dr. Bernhard Doll Orange Hills GmbH Sendlinger Str. 25 80331 München, Germany E. doll@orangehills.de T. +49-89-4520545-0 F. +49-89-4520545-69 Follow us on Twitter: @orangehillsgmbh