The document discusses carbon lock-in and the challenges of transitioning to renewable energy due to existing fossil fuel infrastructure investments. It notes that while climate change poses serious threats, technologies exist to lower carbon emissions cost-effectively. However, their diffusion has been slow due to carbon lock-in effects from past policies and investments that have made economies dependent on fossil fuels. Transitioning away from these entrenched systems requires overcoming substantial inertia.

1. Carbon Lock-In :
Why We Should Set Ourselves FREE

2. Carbon Lock-In
Refers to the self-perpetuating inertia created by large fossil fuel based energy systems
that inhibits public and private efforts to introduce alternative energy technologies
The concept emerged in response to what is termed the “climate policy paradox,” which recognizes
that there is substantial scientific consensus that climate change is a real and present threat to
humans and other species uniquely adapted to current climatic conditions. Similarly there is evidence
that technologies exist which can lower the carbon intensity of economic activity in a cost-effective
manner, including energy efficiency innovations as well as some renewable energy applications. The
existence of these apparent “win-win” no-regrets opportunities for society to act on climate concerns
creates a paradox. If such technologies exist, and they are cost effective and help minimize climate-
forcing emissions, why aren’t they diffusing more rapidly? The conjecture is that industrial economies
have become locked into fossil fuel technologies by past investments and policy decisions, the effects
of positive feedback on increasing returns, and the economic growth of energy infrastructure.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_lock-in

3. Global Warming : What the Science Tells Us

4. Greenhouse Gases (GHG)
A greenhouse gas (GHG) is a gas in an atmosphere that absorbs
and emits radiation within the thermal infrared range. This
process is the fundamental cause of the greenhouse effect
The primary greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere are:
water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and
ozone
Earth’s climate is highly sensitive to concentrations of GHG in the
atmosphere
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_gas)

5. Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution
the burning of fossil fuels and extensive clearing of
native forests has contributed to a 40% increase in
the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide
from 280 ppm in 1750 to 392.6 ppm in 2012
Anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions
(i.e., emissions produced by human activities)
come from combustion of carbon-based
fuels, principally wood, coal, oil and
natural gas.
Greenhouse Gases (GHG)
Global GHG Emissions By Gas

6. • 1861 : John Tyndall put out the hypothesis that
atmospheric CO2 concentration influences the
Earth’s climate.
• 1958 : Charles D. Keeling set out to
systematically measure atmospheric CO2
emissions at the Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii
• Results: Studies showed an increase from 316
ppm in March 1958 to 391 ppm in September
2012
• Note: The seasonal oscillations shown in the
curve reflects the growth of plants in the
Northern Hemisphere which store more Co2
during the spring and summer months
effectively taking up carbon from the
atmosphere.
The Keeling Curve
Initial Studies
WB: Turn Down the Heat

7. The Anthropocene is a proposed geologic
chronological term for an epoch that begins
when human activities have had a significant
global impact on the Earth’s ecosystems
Geological and paleo-climatic evidence clearly
show that the current atmospheric CO2
concentrations are higher than at any time in the
last 15 million years
Since 1959, approximately 350 billion metric tons
of carbon have been emitted through human
activity of which 55% has been taken up by the
oceans and land and 45% remaining in the
atmosphere

8. In a business as usual scenario:
• Global CO2 emissions will reach 41-B metric tons of CO2 per year in 2020
• Total Greenhouse Gases (GhG) will rise to 56 GtCO2e per year in 2020

9. Global Mean Warming is now approximately 0.80C above pre-industrial levels

10. Where is Global Warming going?
Ocean
93.4%
Atmosphere (2.3%)
Continents (2.1%)
Glaciers/Ice Caps (0.9%)
Arctic Sea Ice (0.8%)
Greenland Ice Sheet (0.2%)
Antarctic Ice Sheet (0.2%)

11. Effects + Impacts of Climate Change

12. Effects of Global Warming:
• Sea Level Rise
• Ocean Acidification
• Arctic Ice Loss
• Increasing Loss of Ice from Greenland and
Antarctica
• Drought and Aridity
• Heatwaves and Extreme Temperature
• More Extreme Events

13. Effects of Global Warming:
Effect Causes/Triggers
Sea Level Rise Thermal expansion due to increasing ocean heat storage + Melting of Glaciers and Ice Caps
Ocean Acidification Oceans absorb at least 25% of CO2 emissions. CO2 reacts with water to form a weak acid
Loss of Arctic Sea Ice Anthropogenic Climate Change/Global Warming
Increasing Loss of Ice from Greenland and
Antarctica
Intrusion of warm ocean water / Global Warming
Heatwaves and Extreme Temperature Anthropogenic Climate Change/ Global Warming
Drought and Aridity
Warming of the lower atmosphere strengthens the hydrologic cycle because warmer air holds
more water vapor. This strengthening causes dry regions to become drier and wet regions to
become wetter. Also changes in atmospheric circulation affect precipitation patterns.
Extreme Events Global Warming, Climate Change, Changes in atmospheric balance
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14. Effects + Impacts of Global Warming:
Effects General Impact
Sea Level Rise
Finding: sea level rise of more than 20cm from pre-industrial to 2009. This threatens abt 600-M people
living in low elevation areas. The 10 countries with the most people living in low coastal areas are:
China, India, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Indonesia, Japan, Egypt, USA, Thailand and Philippines.
Ocean Acidification
Reduction of carbonate ions used by marine biota for skeleton and shell formation. Coral bleaching,
decline in commercial fisheries thus affecting food supply, loss of livelihood for coastal communities
Loss of Arctic Sea Ice
Severe damage to Arctic ecosystem. Changes in the dominating air pressure system affecting wind
patterns, weather and climate
Increasing Loss of Ice from Greenland
and Antarctica
If present acceleration of ice loss continues, the ice sheets alone can contribute up to 56 cm to sea
level rise by 2100.
Heatwaves and Extreme Temperature Heat related deaths, forest fires, and harvest losses
Drought and Aridity
Severe Agricultural Losses, and Water shortage. Warming induced drying has increased the areas
under drought by 8% since the 1970s. 15%oif global cropland is currently classified as drought disaster
affected. Aridity has increased 1.74% per decade since the 1970s.
Extreme Events
More intense typhoons, cyclones, flooding due to high precipitation, increased frequency of heat
waves, and droughts.

15. Sectoral Impacts of Global Warming:
Sectors Sectoral Impact
Agriculture
• Mid to High latitude areas will enjoy warmer weather and agri productivity will increase slightly
• Lower latitude areas esp seasonally dry and tropical regions will suffer a decrease in agri productivity
• Significant level of vulnerability of food production and prices due to climate change, extreme weather and
social and economic development trends
• CC may reduce arable land in low latitude regions with reductions most pronounced in Africa, Latin America
and India
• 10.7% of South Asia’s agri land is projected to be exposed to floods, with a 10% intensification of storm
surges and sea level rise
• Main increase in production will have to be managed by an intensification of agri on lesser amount of land
• Escalating risk of crop yield reductions associated with warming
• Regions expected to see increasing drought severity and extent over the next 30-90 years are in Southern
Africa, the United States, Southern Europe, Brazil and Southeast Asia
• Greater threat to food security especially in the tropics and sub-tropics
• Drought disaster affected areas predicted to increase from currently 15% to 44% of global cropland by 2100
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16. Sectoral Impacts of Global Warming:
Sectors Sectoral Impact
Water Resources
• Water scarcity will put at risk our capacity to feed our growing population (Proj to be 9-B by 2050)
• A 4oC warming will find that 43-50% of the global population will be living in water scarce countries
(compared to 28% today)
• A 2oC warming will find about 20-30% less people globally will be affected by increased water stress.
Ecosystems and BioDiversity
• Loss or degradation of ecosystem services occurs as a consequence of species extinctions, declining species
abundance or widespread shifts in species and biome distributions.
• Approx 20-30% of plant and animal species are likely to be at increased risk of extinction, if increases in
global average temp exceed 2-3o above pre-industrial levels.
• Loss of species within ecosystems will have negative effects on the functioning and stability of ecosystems
and on the ability of ecosystems to provide goods and services to human societies.
Human Health
• Increase in malnutrition and undernutrition as an effect of crop failure resulting from extreme weather
events and changing climate patterns.
• Impacts of warming could include deaths, injuries, and mental health trauma because of extreme weather
events and in high vulnerability settings, increases in respiratory and diarrheal infections.
• Increased occurrence of conflict and violence
• People stay indoors because of increased temps resulting to increase incidence of obesity, diabetes and
cardiovascular diseaes
WB: Turn Down the Heat

17. Climate Change and the Philippines
• Philippines is the third most vulnerable country to climate change in
the world1
• Losses due to typhoons is estimated at 1% of GDP (1990-2008)
• Environmental stress (such as pollution of water, air, soil;
deforestation) erodes the very basis of economic development
• Losses of PhP950M annually due to outdoor air pollution2
• Only 7.2M hectares out of 30M hectares of forest remain—making it the 2nd
lowest in SE Asia3
• While the country has the most extensive coral reefs in the world, 40
percent are in poor condition and only 2 percent are in excellent condition4
In the Philippines, the consequences of unsustainability can be felt everywhere
(deforestation, turning rice lands into housing areas, water shortages, land slides,
soil degradation, floods, air pollution, waste problems, raising temperatures…..)
GIZ ProGED Project

18. Climate Change and the Philippines
MSME
POWER
FUEL
WATER
Businesses are very much affected by availability and fluctuations of prices of
power, fuel, water and availability of resource-based production inputs.
GIZ ProGED Project

19. Averting a Tragedy of the Global Commons:
Act Now. Act Together. Act Different.

20. • There are a number of global and country initiatives
to deal with the challenges of global warming on
several fronts.
• In the Philippines, environmental laws and other supporting laws
have been enacted
Examples are:
National Framework Strategy on Climate Change (2010-2022)
DOE Net Metering Law (which allows households to generate
their own power through solar panels)
Funding for Real Estate Developers to include solar panels in
housing development
• There are also special projects like the GIZ project on Promoting
Green Economic Development (ProGED)

21. The Push-Pull-Enable Approach
towards Green Growth
Enablers to Go Green
 Training and Consulting
 Clean Technology Transfer
 Green Financing
 Information, Knowledge
 Matchmaking
Macro level
 Positive Incentives (Financial & Non-
Financial)
 Green Procurement Policies
 Reduced Tariffs for Imported Clean
Technology
Meso level
 Award schemes
 Sustainable consumption campaigns
 Consumer awareness
Micro level
 Green supply chain initiatives by larger
companies
 CDM financing options for green investment
 Pilot projects in other companies setting up
benchmarks
Enable
Macro level
 Negative Incentives (financial & non-
financial)
 Stringent Regulatory Standards
Meso level
 Pressure from stakeholders (Gov’t,
NGO, media)
Micro level
 Increased competition requires to be
competitive
 Lead companies requiring good
environmental practices
 Ambitious and environmentally
conscious employees
 Increasing energy prices
 Depleting resources
Pull
Push
Building a Green Growth Strategy
GIZ ProGED Project

22. What Does It Take for MSMEs
To Go Green?
Innovative
Solutions
High Investment
(GSP+GTS+GF)
Implementation of
Technology
Low
Investment
(GSP + GTS)
Change of Mindset /
Behavioral changes
No
Investment
SavingsGSP: Green Service Provider
GTS: Green Technology Supplier
GF: Green Finance
Building a Green Growth Strategy
GIZ ProGED Project

23. NoInvestment
Use energy saving options on
electrical devices
READthe label
DOE-DTI Energy label guide for air conditioners, refrigerators,
lamp ballasts and bulbs
DTI Philippine
Standards (PS) Quality
and Import
Certification
Clearance (ICC)
Scheme
Use sunlight or wind whenever
possible
Always wash with a full
load
Cook with a covered lid
Switch off/unplug/adjust
What we as Individuals can Do
Energy Efficiency
GIZ ProGED Project

24. LowInvestment
CFL and LED Bulbs
Flat Screen TVs and laptops
Inverter AC, ceiling fan and
solar water heater
What we as Individuals can Do
Energy Efficiency
GIZ ProGED Project

25. What we as Individuals can Do
Energy Efficiency
LowInvestment
Proper positioning of the
structure on the site to minimize
sun exposure and maximize wind
(amihan and habagat)
Light colored roofs and
insulation to reduce heat
absorption
Roof vents to
release hot air build
up
Planting to provide
shade and shield
from sunlight
Proper positioning of windows
to allow cross ventilation and
maximize natural lighting
Green Building Design
For energy efficiency
GIZ ProGED Project

26. Success hinges on changing behavior and
shifting public opinion. Individuals, as
citizens and consumers, will determine the
planet’s future”
WDR Report 2010: Development and Climate Change

27. Digital Artifact Submitted By:
Maria Elena C. Arbon
Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4oC Warmer World Must Be Avoided
April 20 – May 22, 2015