4

Conducting
Marketing Research and
Forecasting Demand

Marketing Management, 13th ed
Chapter Questions
• What constitutes good marketing
research?
• What are good metrics for measuring
marketing productivity?
• How can marketers assess their return
on investment of marketing
expenditures?
• How can companies more accurately
measure and forecast demand?
Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

4-2
What is Marketing Research?
Marketing research is the systematic
design, collection, analysis, and
reporting of data and findings relevant
to a specific marketing situation facing
the company.

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

4-3
Types of Marketing Research Firms
• Syndicated service
• Custom
• Specialty-line

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

4-4
The Marketing Research Process
•
•
•
•
•
•

Define the problem
Develop research plan
Collect information
Analyze information
Present findings
Make decision

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4-5
Step 1: Define the Problem
• Define the problem
• Specify decision alternatives
• State research objectives

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4-6
Step 2: Develop the Research Plan
•
•
•
•
•

Data sources
Research approach
Research instruments
Sampling plan
Contact methods

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

4-7
Research Approaches
•
•
•
•
•
•

Observation
Ethnographic
Focus group
Survey
Behavioral data
Experimentation

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4-8
Research Instruments
• Questionnaires
• Qualitative Measures
• Technological Devices

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

4-9
Questionnaire Do’s and Don’ts
• Ensure questions are
free of bias
• Make questions simple
• Make questions specific
• Avoid jargon
• Avoid sophisticated
words
• Avoid ambiguous words

• Avoid negatives
• Avoid hypotheticals
• Avoid words that could
be misheard
• Use response bands
• Use mutually exclusive
categories
• Allow for “other” in fixed
response questions

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

4-10
Question Types - Dichotomous
In arranging this trip, did you contact
American Airlines?
 Yes  No

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4-11
Question Types – Multiple Choice
With whom are you traveling on this trip?
 No one
 Spouse
 Spouse and children
 Children only
 Business associates/friends/relatives
 An organized tour group
Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

4-12
Question Types – Likert Scale
Indicate your level of agreement with the
following statement: Small airlines generally give
better service than large ones.
 Strongly disagree
 Disagree
 Neither agree nor disagree
 Agree
 Strongly agree
Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

4-13
Question Types – Semantic Differential
American Airlines
Large ………………………………...…….Small
Experienced………………….….Inexperienced
Modern……………………….…..Old-fashioned

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

4-14
Question Types – Importance Scale
Airline food service is _____ to me.
 Extremely important
 Very important
 Somewhat important
 Not very important
 Not at all important

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

4-15
Question Types – Rating Scale
American Airlines’ food service is _____.
 Excellent
 Very good
 Good
 Fair
 Poor

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

4-16
Question Types –
Intention to Buy Scale
How likely are you to purchase tickets on
American Airlines if in-flight Internet access
were available?
 Definitely buy
 Probably buy
 Not sure
 Probably not buy
 Definitely not buy
Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

4-17
Question Types –
Completely Unstructured
What is your opinion of American Airlines?

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

4-18
Question Types –
Word Association
What is the first word that comes to your mind
when you hear the following?
Airline ________________________
American _____________________
Travel ________________________

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

4-19
Question Types –
Sentence Completion
When I choose an airline, the most important
consideration in my decision is:
_____________________________________
_____________________________________
_____________________________________
_____________________________________
_____________________________________
_____________________________________
__________________.

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4-20
Question Types –
Story Completion
“I flew American a few days ago. I noticed that
the exterior and interior of the plane had very
bright colors. This aroused in me the following
thoughts and feelings.” Now complete the story.
_______________________________________
_______________________________________
_______________________________________
_______________________________________
_______________________________________
_______________________________________
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4-21
Question Types –
Picture (Empty Balloons)

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4-22
Qualitative Measures
•
•
•
•
•

Word association
Projective techniques
Visualization
Brand personification
Laddering

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4-23
Technological Devices
•
•
•
•
•

Galvanometers
Tachistoscope
Eye cameras
Audiometers
GPS

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4-24
Sampling Plan
• Sampling unit: Who is to be surveyed?
• Sample size: How many people should be
surveyed?
• Sampling procedure: How should the
respondents be chosen?

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4-25
Table 4.2 Types of Samples
Probability Samples
• Simple random
• Stratified random
• Cluster

Nonprobability Samples
• Convenience
• Judgment
• Quota

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

4-26
Contact Methods
•
•
•
•

Mail questionnaire
Telephone interview
Personal interview
Online interview

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

4-27
Pros and Cons of Online Research
Advantages
• Inexpensive
• Fast
• Accuracy of data,
even for sensitive
questions
• Versatility

Disadvantages
• Small samples
• Skewed samples
• Technological
problems
• Inconsistencies

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

4-28
What is a
Marketing Decision Support System
(MDSS)?
A marketing decision support
system is a coordinated collection of
data, systems, tools, and techniques
with supporting hardware and software
by which an organization gathers and
interprets relevant information from
business and environment and turns it
into a basis for marketing action.
Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

4-29
Barriers Limiting the Use of
Marketing Research
•
•
•
•

A narrow conception of the research
Uneven caliber of researchers
Poor framing of the problem
Late and occasionally erroneous
findings
• Personality and presentational
differences
Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

4-30
Table 4.3 Characteristics of
Good Marketing Research
•
•
•
•
•
•
•

Scientific method
Research creativity
Multiple methods
Interdependence
Value and cost of information
Healthy skepticism
Ethical marketing

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

4-31
What are Marketing Metrics?
Marketing metrics are the set of
measures that helps marketers
quantify, compare, and interpret
marketing performance.

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

4-32
Table 4.4 Marketing Metrics
External

Internal

•
•
•
•
•
•
•

•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•

Awareness
Market share
Relative price
Number of complaints
Customer satisfaction
Distribution
Total number of
customers
• Loyalty

Awareness of goals
Commitment to goals
Active support
Resource adequacy
Staffing levels
Desire to learn
Willingness to change
Freedom to fail
Autonomy

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

4-33
What is Marketing-Mix Modeling?
Marketing-mix models analyze data
from a variety of sources, such as
retailer scanner data, company
shipment data, pricing, media, and
promotion spending data, to
understand more precisely the effects
of specific marketing activities.

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

4-34
Marketing Dashboards
• A customer-performance scorecard
records how well the company is doing year
after year on customer-based measures.
• A stakeholder-performance scorecard
tracks the satisfaction of various
constituencies who have a critical interest in
and impact on the company’s performance
including employees, suppliers, banks,
distributors, retailers, and stockholders.

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

4-35
Table 4.5 Sample Customer-Performance
Scorecard Measures
•
•
•
•
•
•
•

% of new customers to average #
% of lost customers to average #
% of win-back customers to average #
% of customers in various levels of satisfaction
% of customers who would repurchase
% of target market members with brand recall
% of customers who say brand is most
preferred

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

4-36
Common Measurement Paths
•
•
•
•

Customer metrics pathway
Unit metrics pathway
Cash-flow metrics pathway
Brand metrics pathway

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

4-37
The Measures of Market Demand
•
•
•
•

Potential market
Available market
Target market
Penetrated market

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

4-38
Vocabulary for Demand Measurement
•
•
•
•
•
•

Market demand
Market forecast
Market potential
Company demand
Company sales forecast
Company sales potential

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

4-39
How Can We Estimate
Current Demand?
• Total market potential

• Area market potential
• Market buildup method
• Multiple-factor index method
Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

4-40
Estimating Future Demand
•
•
•
•
•

Survey of Buyers’ Intentions
Composite of Sales Force Opinions
Expert Opinion
Past-Sales Analysis
Market-Test Method

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

4-41

Chap 4

  • 1.
    4 Conducting Marketing Research and ForecastingDemand Marketing Management, 13th ed
  • 2.
    Chapter Questions • Whatconstitutes good marketing research? • What are good metrics for measuring marketing productivity? • How can marketers assess their return on investment of marketing expenditures? • How can companies more accurately measure and forecast demand? Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 4-2
  • 3.
    What is MarketingResearch? Marketing research is the systematic design, collection, analysis, and reporting of data and findings relevant to a specific marketing situation facing the company. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 4-3
  • 4.
    Types of MarketingResearch Firms • Syndicated service • Custom • Specialty-line Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 4-4
  • 5.
    The Marketing ResearchProcess • • • • • • Define the problem Develop research plan Collect information Analyze information Present findings Make decision Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 4-5
  • 6.
    Step 1: Definethe Problem • Define the problem • Specify decision alternatives • State research objectives Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 4-6
  • 7.
    Step 2: Developthe Research Plan • • • • • Data sources Research approach Research instruments Sampling plan Contact methods Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 4-7
  • 8.
    Research Approaches • • • • • • Observation Ethnographic Focus group Survey Behavioraldata Experimentation Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 4-8
  • 9.
    Research Instruments • Questionnaires •Qualitative Measures • Technological Devices Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 4-9
  • 10.
    Questionnaire Do’s andDon’ts • Ensure questions are free of bias • Make questions simple • Make questions specific • Avoid jargon • Avoid sophisticated words • Avoid ambiguous words • Avoid negatives • Avoid hypotheticals • Avoid words that could be misheard • Use response bands • Use mutually exclusive categories • Allow for “other” in fixed response questions Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 4-10
  • 11.
    Question Types -Dichotomous In arranging this trip, did you contact American Airlines?  Yes  No Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 4-11
  • 12.
    Question Types –Multiple Choice With whom are you traveling on this trip?  No one  Spouse  Spouse and children  Children only  Business associates/friends/relatives  An organized tour group Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 4-12
  • 13.
    Question Types –Likert Scale Indicate your level of agreement with the following statement: Small airlines generally give better service than large ones.  Strongly disagree  Disagree  Neither agree nor disagree  Agree  Strongly agree Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 4-13
  • 14.
    Question Types –Semantic Differential American Airlines Large ………………………………...…….Small Experienced………………….….Inexperienced Modern……………………….…..Old-fashioned Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 4-14
  • 15.
    Question Types –Importance Scale Airline food service is _____ to me.  Extremely important  Very important  Somewhat important  Not very important  Not at all important Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 4-15
  • 16.
    Question Types –Rating Scale American Airlines’ food service is _____.  Excellent  Very good  Good  Fair  Poor Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 4-16
  • 17.
    Question Types – Intentionto Buy Scale How likely are you to purchase tickets on American Airlines if in-flight Internet access were available?  Definitely buy  Probably buy  Not sure  Probably not buy  Definitely not buy Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 4-17
  • 18.
    Question Types – CompletelyUnstructured What is your opinion of American Airlines? Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 4-18
  • 19.
    Question Types – WordAssociation What is the first word that comes to your mind when you hear the following? Airline ________________________ American _____________________ Travel ________________________ Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 4-19
  • 20.
    Question Types – SentenceCompletion When I choose an airline, the most important consideration in my decision is: _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ __________________. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 4-20
  • 21.
    Question Types – StoryCompletion “I flew American a few days ago. I noticed that the exterior and interior of the plane had very bright colors. This aroused in me the following thoughts and feelings.” Now complete the story. _______________________________________ _______________________________________ _______________________________________ _______________________________________ _______________________________________ _______________________________________ Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 4-21
  • 22.
    Question Types – Picture(Empty Balloons) Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 4-22
  • 23.
    Qualitative Measures • • • • • Word association Projectivetechniques Visualization Brand personification Laddering Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 4-23
  • 24.
  • 25.
    Sampling Plan • Samplingunit: Who is to be surveyed? • Sample size: How many people should be surveyed? • Sampling procedure: How should the respondents be chosen? Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 4-25
  • 26.
    Table 4.2 Typesof Samples Probability Samples • Simple random • Stratified random • Cluster Nonprobability Samples • Convenience • Judgment • Quota Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 4-26
  • 27.
    Contact Methods • • • • Mail questionnaire Telephoneinterview Personal interview Online interview Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 4-27
  • 28.
    Pros and Consof Online Research Advantages • Inexpensive • Fast • Accuracy of data, even for sensitive questions • Versatility Disadvantages • Small samples • Skewed samples • Technological problems • Inconsistencies Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 4-28
  • 29.
    What is a MarketingDecision Support System (MDSS)? A marketing decision support system is a coordinated collection of data, systems, tools, and techniques with supporting hardware and software by which an organization gathers and interprets relevant information from business and environment and turns it into a basis for marketing action. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 4-29
  • 30.
    Barriers Limiting theUse of Marketing Research • • • • A narrow conception of the research Uneven caliber of researchers Poor framing of the problem Late and occasionally erroneous findings • Personality and presentational differences Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 4-30
  • 31.
    Table 4.3 Characteristicsof Good Marketing Research • • • • • • • Scientific method Research creativity Multiple methods Interdependence Value and cost of information Healthy skepticism Ethical marketing Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 4-31
  • 32.
    What are MarketingMetrics? Marketing metrics are the set of measures that helps marketers quantify, compare, and interpret marketing performance. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 4-32
  • 33.
    Table 4.4 MarketingMetrics External Internal • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • Awareness Market share Relative price Number of complaints Customer satisfaction Distribution Total number of customers • Loyalty Awareness of goals Commitment to goals Active support Resource adequacy Staffing levels Desire to learn Willingness to change Freedom to fail Autonomy Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 4-33
  • 34.
    What is Marketing-MixModeling? Marketing-mix models analyze data from a variety of sources, such as retailer scanner data, company shipment data, pricing, media, and promotion spending data, to understand more precisely the effects of specific marketing activities. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 4-34
  • 35.
    Marketing Dashboards • Acustomer-performance scorecard records how well the company is doing year after year on customer-based measures. • A stakeholder-performance scorecard tracks the satisfaction of various constituencies who have a critical interest in and impact on the company’s performance including employees, suppliers, banks, distributors, retailers, and stockholders. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 4-35
  • 36.
    Table 4.5 SampleCustomer-Performance Scorecard Measures • • • • • • • % of new customers to average # % of lost customers to average # % of win-back customers to average # % of customers in various levels of satisfaction % of customers who would repurchase % of target market members with brand recall % of customers who say brand is most preferred Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 4-36
  • 37.
    Common Measurement Paths • • • • Customermetrics pathway Unit metrics pathway Cash-flow metrics pathway Brand metrics pathway Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 4-37
  • 38.
    The Measures ofMarket Demand • • • • Potential market Available market Target market Penetrated market Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 4-38
  • 39.
    Vocabulary for DemandMeasurement • • • • • • Market demand Market forecast Market potential Company demand Company sales forecast Company sales potential Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 4-39
  • 40.
    How Can WeEstimate Current Demand? • Total market potential • Area market potential • Market buildup method • Multiple-factor index method Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 4-40
  • 41.
    Estimating Future Demand • • • • • Surveyof Buyers’ Intentions Composite of Sales Force Opinions Expert Opinion Past-Sales Analysis Market-Test Method Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 4-41