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MARKETING MANAGEMENT 
12th edition 
4 
Conducting 
Marketing Research 
and Forecasting 
Demand 
Kotler Keller
Chapter Questions 
• What constitutes good marketing 
research? 
• What are good metrics for measuring 
marketing productivity? 
• How can marketers assess their return 
on investment of marketing 
expenditures? 
• How can companies more accurately 
measure and forecast demand? 
4-2
Build-A-Bear 
Workshop makes 
the most of 
“interactive 
entertainment 
retailing” 
4-3
4-4 
Marketing Research Defined 
Systematic design, collection, 
analysis, and reporting of data 
and findings relevant to a specific 
marketing situation facing a company.
4-5 
Karmaloop.com
Types of Marketing Research Firms 
4-6 
Syndicated-service 
Custom Specialty-line
The Marketing Research Process 
4-7 
Define the problem 
Develop research plan 
Collect information 
Analyze information 
Present findings 
Make 
decision
4-8 
Step 1 
• Define the problem 
• Specify decision alternatives 
• State research objectives
Research 
Approach 
4-9 
Step 2 
Data 
Sources 
Research 
Instruments 
Contact 
Methods 
Sampling 
Plan
4-10 
Research Approaches 
OObbsseerrvvaattiioonn 
FFooccuuss GGrroouupp 
SSuurrvveeyy 
BBeehhaavviioorraall DDaattaa 
EExxppeerriimmeennttaattiioonn
4-11 
Focus Group in Session
4-12 
Research Instruments 
Questionnaires 
Qualitative Measures 
Mechanical Devices
Questionnaire Do’s and Don’ts 
• Avoid negatives 
• Avoid hypotheticals 
• Avoid words that could 
be misheard 
• Use response bands 
• Use mutually exclusive 
categories 
• Allow for “other” in fixed 
response questions 
4-13 
• Ensure questions are 
free of bias 
• Make questions simple 
• Make questions specific 
• Avoid jargon 
• Avoid sophisticated 
words 
• Avoid ambiguous words
Question Types - Dichotomous 
In arranging this trip, did you contact American 
Airlines? 
 Yes  No 
4-14
Question Types – Multiple Choice 
With whom are you traveling on this trip? 
 No one 
 Spouse 
 Spouse and children 
 Children only 
 Business associates/friends/relatives 
 An organized tour group 
4-15
Question Types – Likert Scale 
Indicate your level of agreement with the following 
statement: Small airlines generally give better 
service than large ones. 
 Strongly disagree 
 Disagree 
 Neither agree nor disagree 
 Agree 
 Strongly agree 
4-16
Question Types – Semantic Differential 
4-17 
American Airlines 
Large ………………………………...…………….Small 
Experienced………………….………….Inexperienced 
Modern………………………..………….Old-fashioned
Question Types – Importance Scale 
4-18 
Airline food service is _____ to me. 
 Extremely important 
 Very important 
 Somewhat important 
 Not very important 
 Not at all important
Question Types – Rating Scale 
American Airlines’ food service is _____. 
 Excellent 
 Very good 
 Good 
 Fair 
 Poor 
4-19
Question Types – 
Intention to Buy Scale 
How likely are you to purchase tickets on American 
Airlines if in-flight Internet access were available? 
 Definitely buy 
 Probably buy 
 Not sure 
 Probably not buy 
 Definitely not buy 
4-20
Question Types – 
Completely Unstructured 
What is your opinion of American Airlines? 
4-21
Question Types – 
Word Association 
What is the first word that comes to your mind 
when you hear the following? 
Airline ________________________ 
American _____________________ 
Travel ________________________ 
4-22
Question Types – 
Sentence Completion 
When I choose an airline, the most important 
consideration in my decision is: 
_________________________________________ 
_________________________________________ 
_________________________________________ 
_________________________________________ 
_________________________________________ 
___________________________________. 
4-23
Question Types – 
Story Completion 
“I flew American a few days ago. I noticed that the 
exterior and interior of the plane had very bright 
colors. This aroused in me the following thoughts 
and feelings.” Now complete the story. 
_________________________________________ 
_________________________________________ 
_________________________________________ 
_________________________________________ 
_________________________________________ 
___________________________________ 
4-24
4-25 
Question Types – 
Picture (Empty Balloons)
Question Types – 
Thematic Apperception Test 
Make up a story that reflects what you think is 
happening in this picture. 
4-26
4-27 
Qualitative Measures 
SShhaaddoowwiinngg 
BBeehhaavviioorr mmaappppiinngg 
CCoonnssuummeerr jjoouurrnneeyy 
CCaammeerraa jjoouurrnnaallss 
EExxttrreemmee uusseerr iinntteerrvviieewwss 
SSttoorryytteelllliinngg 
UUnnffooccuusseedd ggrroouuppss
4-28 
Mechanical Devices 
Galvanometers 
Tachistoscope 
Eye cameras 
Audiometers 
GPS
4-29 
Sampling Plan 
• Sampling unit: Who is to be surveyed? 
• Sample size: How many people should be 
surveyed? 
• Sampling procedure: How should the 
respondents be chosen?
4-30 
Types of Samples 
Probability 
• Simple random 
• Stratified random 
• Cluster 
Nonprobability 
• Convenience 
• Judgment 
• Quota
4-31 
Contact Methods 
Mail Questionnaire 
Telephone 
Interview 
Personal 
Interview 
Online 
Interview
4-32 
Characteristics of Good 
Marketing Research 
 Scientific method 
 Research creativity 
 Multiple methods 
 Interdependence 
 Value and cost of information 
 Healthy skepticism 
 Ethical marketing
Table 4.4 Marketing Metrics 
External 
• Awareness 
• Market share 
• Relative price 
• Number of complaints 
• Customer satisfaction 
• Distribution 
• Total number of 
4-33 
customers 
• Loyalty 
Internal 
• Awareness of goals 
• Commitment to goals 
• Active support 
• Resource adequacy 
• Staffing levels 
• Desire to learn 
• Willingness to change 
• Freedom to fail 
• Autonomy
Table 4.5 Sample Customer- 
Performance Scorecard Measures 
• % of new customers to average # 
• % of lost customers to average # 
• % of win-back customers to average # 
• % of customers in various levels of satisfaction 
• % of customers who would repurchase 
• % of target market members with brand recall 
• % of customers who say brand is most preferred 
4-34
Tools to Measure Marketing Plan 
Performance 
4-35 
Sales 
Analysis 
Financial 
Analysis 
Expense-to- 
Sales 
Analysis 
Market Share 
Analysis
4-36 
Sales Analysis 
Micro- 
Sales 
Analysis 
Sales- 
Variance 
Analysis
4-37 
Market Share Analysis 
• Overall market share 
• Served market share 
• Relative market share
Figure 4.2 The Control-Chart Model 
4-38
4-39 
Figure 4.3 Financial Model of 
Return on Net Worth
Marketing-Profitability Analysis 
Step 1: Identifying Functional Expenses 
Step 2: Assigning Functional Expenses to 
4-40 
Marketing Entities 
Step 3: Preparing a Profit-and-Loss Statement 
for each Marketing Entity
Table 4.6 
Simplified Profit-and-Loss Statement 
4-41
Table 4.7 Mapping Natural Expenses into 
Functional Expenses 
4-42
Table 4.8 Bases for Allocating Functional 
Expenses to Channels 
4-43
Table 4.9 Profit-and-Loss Statements 
for Channels 
4-44
Distinguishing Types of Costs 
Direct Nontraceable 
common 
4-45 
Traceable 
common
Gladware uses 
marketing-mix 
modeling to test 
advertising 
effectiveness 
4-46
The Measures of Market Demand 
4-47 
Potential 
Market 
Penetrated 
Market 
Target 
Market 
Available 
Market
4-48 
Figure 4.4 Ninety Types of 
Demand Measurement
4-49 
Figure 4.5 
Market Demand Functions
4-50 
Figure 4.5 
Market Demand Functions
Product Penetration Percentage 
4-51
Estimating Current Demand 
4-52 
• Total market potential 
• Area market potential 
–Market buildup method 
–Multiple-factor index method 
• Brand development index
4-53 
Table 4.10 Calculating 
Brand Development Index
Estimating Future Demand 
• Survey of Buyers’ Intentions 
• Composite of Sales Force Opinions 
• Expert Opinion 
• Past-Sales Analysis 
• Market-Test Method 
4-54
Purchase Probability Scale 
Do you intend to buy an automobile within 
the next 6 months? 
0.00 No 
0.20 Slight possibility 
0.40 Fair possibility 
0.60 Good possibility 
0.80 High possibility 
1.00 Certain 
4-55
4-56 
Marketing Debate 
 What is the best type of marketing 
research? 
Take a position: 
1. Marketing research should be 
quantitative. 
2. Marketing research should be 
qualitative.
4-57 
Marketing Discussion 
When was the last time you 
participated in a survey? How helpful 
do you think was the information 
you provided? Could the research 
have been done differently?

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Melaksanakan Riset Pemasaran dan Meramalkan Permintaan

  • 1. MARKETING MANAGEMENT 12th edition 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand Kotler Keller
  • 2. Chapter Questions • What constitutes good marketing research? • What are good metrics for measuring marketing productivity? • How can marketers assess their return on investment of marketing expenditures? • How can companies more accurately measure and forecast demand? 4-2
  • 3. Build-A-Bear Workshop makes the most of “interactive entertainment retailing” 4-3
  • 4. 4-4 Marketing Research Defined Systematic design, collection, analysis, and reporting of data and findings relevant to a specific marketing situation facing a company.
  • 6. Types of Marketing Research Firms 4-6 Syndicated-service Custom Specialty-line
  • 7. The Marketing Research Process 4-7 Define the problem Develop research plan Collect information Analyze information Present findings Make decision
  • 8. 4-8 Step 1 • Define the problem • Specify decision alternatives • State research objectives
  • 9. Research Approach 4-9 Step 2 Data Sources Research Instruments Contact Methods Sampling Plan
  • 10. 4-10 Research Approaches OObbsseerrvvaattiioonn FFooccuuss GGrroouupp SSuurrvveeyy BBeehhaavviioorraall DDaattaa EExxppeerriimmeennttaattiioonn
  • 11. 4-11 Focus Group in Session
  • 12. 4-12 Research Instruments Questionnaires Qualitative Measures Mechanical Devices
  • 13. Questionnaire Do’s and Don’ts • Avoid negatives • Avoid hypotheticals • Avoid words that could be misheard • Use response bands • Use mutually exclusive categories • Allow for “other” in fixed response questions 4-13 • Ensure questions are free of bias • Make questions simple • Make questions specific • Avoid jargon • Avoid sophisticated words • Avoid ambiguous words
  • 14. Question Types - Dichotomous In arranging this trip, did you contact American Airlines?  Yes  No 4-14
  • 15. Question Types – Multiple Choice With whom are you traveling on this trip?  No one  Spouse  Spouse and children  Children only  Business associates/friends/relatives  An organized tour group 4-15
  • 16. Question Types – Likert Scale Indicate your level of agreement with the following statement: Small airlines generally give better service than large ones.  Strongly disagree  Disagree  Neither agree nor disagree  Agree  Strongly agree 4-16
  • 17. Question Types – Semantic Differential 4-17 American Airlines Large ………………………………...…………….Small Experienced………………….………….Inexperienced Modern………………………..………….Old-fashioned
  • 18. Question Types – Importance Scale 4-18 Airline food service is _____ to me.  Extremely important  Very important  Somewhat important  Not very important  Not at all important
  • 19. Question Types – Rating Scale American Airlines’ food service is _____.  Excellent  Very good  Good  Fair  Poor 4-19
  • 20. Question Types – Intention to Buy Scale How likely are you to purchase tickets on American Airlines if in-flight Internet access were available?  Definitely buy  Probably buy  Not sure  Probably not buy  Definitely not buy 4-20
  • 21. Question Types – Completely Unstructured What is your opinion of American Airlines? 4-21
  • 22. Question Types – Word Association What is the first word that comes to your mind when you hear the following? Airline ________________________ American _____________________ Travel ________________________ 4-22
  • 23. Question Types – Sentence Completion When I choose an airline, the most important consideration in my decision is: _________________________________________ _________________________________________ _________________________________________ _________________________________________ _________________________________________ ___________________________________. 4-23
  • 24. Question Types – Story Completion “I flew American a few days ago. I noticed that the exterior and interior of the plane had very bright colors. This aroused in me the following thoughts and feelings.” Now complete the story. _________________________________________ _________________________________________ _________________________________________ _________________________________________ _________________________________________ ___________________________________ 4-24
  • 25. 4-25 Question Types – Picture (Empty Balloons)
  • 26. Question Types – Thematic Apperception Test Make up a story that reflects what you think is happening in this picture. 4-26
  • 27. 4-27 Qualitative Measures SShhaaddoowwiinngg BBeehhaavviioorr mmaappppiinngg CCoonnssuummeerr jjoouurrnneeyy CCaammeerraa jjoouurrnnaallss EExxttrreemmee uusseerr iinntteerrvviieewwss SSttoorryytteelllliinngg UUnnffooccuusseedd ggrroouuppss
  • 28. 4-28 Mechanical Devices Galvanometers Tachistoscope Eye cameras Audiometers GPS
  • 29. 4-29 Sampling Plan • Sampling unit: Who is to be surveyed? • Sample size: How many people should be surveyed? • Sampling procedure: How should the respondents be chosen?
  • 30. 4-30 Types of Samples Probability • Simple random • Stratified random • Cluster Nonprobability • Convenience • Judgment • Quota
  • 31. 4-31 Contact Methods Mail Questionnaire Telephone Interview Personal Interview Online Interview
  • 32. 4-32 Characteristics of Good Marketing Research  Scientific method  Research creativity  Multiple methods  Interdependence  Value and cost of information  Healthy skepticism  Ethical marketing
  • 33. Table 4.4 Marketing Metrics External • Awareness • Market share • Relative price • Number of complaints • Customer satisfaction • Distribution • Total number of 4-33 customers • Loyalty Internal • Awareness of goals • Commitment to goals • Active support • Resource adequacy • Staffing levels • Desire to learn • Willingness to change • Freedom to fail • Autonomy
  • 34. Table 4.5 Sample Customer- Performance Scorecard Measures • % of new customers to average # • % of lost customers to average # • % of win-back customers to average # • % of customers in various levels of satisfaction • % of customers who would repurchase • % of target market members with brand recall • % of customers who say brand is most preferred 4-34
  • 35. Tools to Measure Marketing Plan Performance 4-35 Sales Analysis Financial Analysis Expense-to- Sales Analysis Market Share Analysis
  • 36. 4-36 Sales Analysis Micro- Sales Analysis Sales- Variance Analysis
  • 37. 4-37 Market Share Analysis • Overall market share • Served market share • Relative market share
  • 38. Figure 4.2 The Control-Chart Model 4-38
  • 39. 4-39 Figure 4.3 Financial Model of Return on Net Worth
  • 40. Marketing-Profitability Analysis Step 1: Identifying Functional Expenses Step 2: Assigning Functional Expenses to 4-40 Marketing Entities Step 3: Preparing a Profit-and-Loss Statement for each Marketing Entity
  • 41. Table 4.6 Simplified Profit-and-Loss Statement 4-41
  • 42. Table 4.7 Mapping Natural Expenses into Functional Expenses 4-42
  • 43. Table 4.8 Bases for Allocating Functional Expenses to Channels 4-43
  • 44. Table 4.9 Profit-and-Loss Statements for Channels 4-44
  • 45. Distinguishing Types of Costs Direct Nontraceable common 4-45 Traceable common
  • 46. Gladware uses marketing-mix modeling to test advertising effectiveness 4-46
  • 47. The Measures of Market Demand 4-47 Potential Market Penetrated Market Target Market Available Market
  • 48. 4-48 Figure 4.4 Ninety Types of Demand Measurement
  • 49. 4-49 Figure 4.5 Market Demand Functions
  • 50. 4-50 Figure 4.5 Market Demand Functions
  • 52. Estimating Current Demand 4-52 • Total market potential • Area market potential –Market buildup method –Multiple-factor index method • Brand development index
  • 53. 4-53 Table 4.10 Calculating Brand Development Index
  • 54. Estimating Future Demand • Survey of Buyers’ Intentions • Composite of Sales Force Opinions • Expert Opinion • Past-Sales Analysis • Market-Test Method 4-54
  • 55. Purchase Probability Scale Do you intend to buy an automobile within the next 6 months? 0.00 No 0.20 Slight possibility 0.40 Fair possibility 0.60 Good possibility 0.80 High possibility 1.00 Certain 4-55
  • 56. 4-56 Marketing Debate  What is the best type of marketing research? Take a position: 1. Marketing research should be quantitative. 2. Marketing research should be qualitative.
  • 57. 4-57 Marketing Discussion When was the last time you participated in a survey? How helpful do you think was the information you provided? Could the research have been done differently?

Editor's Notes

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