Presentation given to Sydney Metropolitan Area Integrated Regional Vulnerability Assessment hosted by Office of Environment & Heritage. Looking at climate change and some of the challenges facing the emergency management sector around adaptation and resilience Emergency Management Workshop 4th December 2013

1. Office of Environment & Heritage
Sydney Metropolitan Area Integrated Regional
Vulnerability Assessment
Emergency Management Workshop
4th December 2013
Lew Short
Principal, Emergency Management & Resilience

2. My Role Today
• Give us a Sydney perspective and challenge
participants to understand that climate
change is real, happening and urgent with a
silo-busting approach.
“Poke the bear…”

3. “The world has entered the era of ‘mega crisis’
or catastrophic emergencies’ whose force
and magnitude defy even the best laid plans
and the most robust response systems”
Professor Paul ‘t Hart

4. Emergency Management policy is
getting more complex
• People expect information as it arrives
• Previous good responses may have created a culture
of immediacy in the community
• Peoples ability to make appropriate decisions under
stress is limited
• Peoples ability to understand their risk and act on
this in an informed way is limited

6. Australia vulnerable in a warming
planet, IPCC Report
• Climate change will increase the likelihood of deaths
from heat stress and bushfires, and potentially place
more than a quarter of a million Australian homes at
risk from rising sea levels.
• Cities such as Sydney will see heat-related deaths
soar by the end of the century, the draft said.
• Without adaptation, heat-related deaths could triple
to 7.4 per 100,000 in 2070-99, from 2.5 in 1960-99.
• Mental health issues, water- and food-borne diseases
will increase under global warming projections.
• Floods may also worsen. One study found that 50year and 100-year flood peaks will rise 10-20 per cent
by 2050, the draft document noted.
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/australia-vulnerable-in-a-warming-planet-leaked-ipcc-report-finds20131014-2vhz0.html#ixzz2hjYJlYc1

7. http://www.emknowledge.gov.au/search/?search=sydney&region=

8. Most expensive
http://www.riskfrontiers.com/pdf/McAneney-Market-based-mechanisms-for-climate-change-adaptation.pdf
Black Saturday Feb 2009 The commission's final report estimates the cost at $4.4 billion
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/black-saturday-cost-44-billion-20100801-11116.html#ixzz2hjafslNA
Blue Mountains bush fires $183m

10. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_disasters_in_Australia_by_death_toll
Cyclone Tracey 74
deaths

11. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_disasters_in_Australia_by_death_toll
Cyclone Tracey 74
deaths

13. • Israel’s survival is due to the Mossad policy of
the “10th Man”:
• For every potential threat, one out of 10
people in the agency assigned to the case
needs to take it seriously, no matter how farfetched it may seem.

14. Defensive
Limit to safe operation of
helicopters (~50km/h)
Indirect attack
Parallel attack
Limit to direct attack
Potential:
• Loss of radio &
telco towers
• Loss of situational
awareness

15. Capacity of community to
receive and act on triggers

16. Future Resilience Challenges
• More frequent & intense natural disasters (longer & deeper droughts, more
frequent & intense bushfires, heatwaves, more costly storms & floods);
• There will be more of us (around 25 million in 2020) & aged population;
• Catastrophic events will overwhelm emergency services & government will
not be able to meet the response phase of an event;
• The community will continue to be first responders (ie they will be the first
on scene and will begin to assist) and will self mobilise (social media i.e.
“Tassie Fires We can Help” (http://www.tassiefireswecanhelp.com) and “Cyclone Yasi
Update” (http://tiny.cc/z0rm4w);
• Natural disasters will cost us a lot (around $12 billion by 2030)
• Insurers will be price signalling to reflect risk & exposure;
• Harmonising landuse planning and building codes on an all hazards, all
agency basis that is consistent across the country;
• Expectations of the community will be for no loss of life, real time
information and warnings;
• We will be network centric;
• More warnings and evacuations

17. Code based Resilience
• Buildings and infrastructure must have the resilience to
accommodate climate change .
• The Insurance Council of Australia, in a recent
submission to the Productivity Commission, outlined
that the National Code of Construction
– “permits the construction of buildings (at a minimum
standard) that include no element of durability (property
protection), creating a stock of buildings that whilst ‘safe’
are increasingly brittle to extreme weather events”.
• Under current code objectives — health, safety,
amenity and sustainability — buildings are primarily
designed and built to reduce risks to human life, rather
than to minimise damage to the building.
• National Code of Construction is not applicable to
existing buildings, which form the majority of the
building stock… retrofitting?

18. Insured V Non- Insured
Coonabarabran, Yass and
Shoalhaven
1.4 million hectares
burned, 62 homes
destroyed and 50,000 stock
• An interesting policy dilemma may be shaping up
regarding peoples actions during bushfires
• Fully insured residents were the least likely (23%) to
stay and defend their properties, with 45% of
underinsured and 38% of uninsured saying they would
do so. Many NSW bushfire victims lack full cover
http://insurancenews.com.au/local/many-nsw-bushfire-victims-lack-full-cover
• At face value it seems those that are at risk of financial
hardship are taking a more risky path to stay & defend
their property.
• While there are not mandatory evacuations in
many jurisdictions it presents a series of issues, linked
in part by peoples socio-economic means to have
insurance – Vic “pecuniary interest in a property”

19. Out of Scale Events
• Profound changes in the way we consume information
• How does government deal with non government in a
disaster?
• Why are more people turning to NGO in disaster?
Speed, capability & nimbleness issues? Maybe
constraint issues? D. Kaufman FEMA
• Big events expose the vulnerability of government
–
–
–
–
Hurricane Sandy 25,000 people seeking shelter
18m people without power
100m Americans experienced the storm
118 deaths

20. The 10th Man
• What happens when out of scale events or a
series of concurrent events within NSW or
around the country stretch resources beyond
their capacity & capability
– Loss of situational awareness
– Surge capability
– Society breakdown??

21. Winmalee http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-10-26/nswfire-warnings-disaster-relief-winmalee-meetingbushfires/5047638
Sydney Basin
drained of fire
fighting resources
and sent to the
Mountains
• What if fires had been burning in northern or
southern Sydney OR started in these places
when the resources were away?

22. Challenge: How to
make information
accessible
• In a way that provokes a
response
• Gives greater
understanding of risk
• Initiates action and
adaptation
• Builds capacity
• Enhances resilience
• & is not based on
emergency services

23. EM Challenges
• Catastrophic & out of scale events
• Ability to manage large scale asymmetric events
• Situational awareness in complex environments
• Loss of situational awareness
• Coordinated operations & integrated doctrine
• Communications & information management
• Social media & first responders
• Surge capability
• Partnerships with NGO & private sector
• All hazards, all agency
Framed in consideration of climate change,
resilience and out of scale events

24. Adaptive Leadership
• Technical responses are relatively easy
• Adaptive management & leadership is hard
• A process of understanding, exchanging
information, working together and learning is
needed.
• This is an uneasy process. People don’t adapt
easily. They deny the problem, they resist the
pain that is needed to deal with the situation,
they avoid the work to be done. That’s where
leadership is needed.
• Leadership is putting the finger on the real
challenges that threaten our survival and
changing the mindset of the many.

25. Lew Short
Principal, Emergency Management &
Resilience
Eco Logical Australia
0419 203 853
Lews@ecoaus.com.au
Lew Short
Lewshort14
http://www.slideshare.net/LewShort