Materials for my keynote to the CDL 2014 conference. Includes notes on participants' comments and questions.

1. Center for
Distance
Learning,
SUNY
Empire
State
College
-
2014

2. Plan:
1. Current
and
developing
trends
2. Several
possible
futures

3. Collaborate
Use social media
Use futures thinking
Practice open
Pay attention to generations

4. After the Web’s first
generation:
Campus Web
presence
The LMS
The ERP
Library-IT ententes
Desktops to BYOD

7. Monthly
environmental
scan report
Trends
identified,
tested,
projected

10. More international
students heading to the
US
Non-US higher ed
systems building up

11. Northeast, midwest youth
population vs debt
Alternative certification
(competency, badges)
US job changes (manufact-
>service, 1->many, declining
participation, automation)

13. Adjunctification rising

15. shared academic services
executive compensation rising
amid controversy
challenges to internships
possible intergenerational
tensions
library budgets being crushed

16. digital
video
cloud wars
augmented
reality
automation
and artificial
intelligence

18. social media triumphing

21. durability of Moore’s Law

22. crowdfunding growing
copyright battles
continue
office versus Web office
Internet of Things

24. "When we were an agrarian
nation, all cars were trucks
because that's what you needed
on the farms." Cars became more
popular as cities rose, and things
like power steering and
automatic transmission became
popular…

25. "PCs are going to be like trucks," Jobs said. "They
are still going to be around." However, he said,
only "one out of x people will need them."
http://news.cnet.com/8301-13860_3-20006526-56.html ; image via Wikipedia

26. Design for mobile *first *

28. PCs getting
crowded out
Mouse and
keyboard
declining
3d printing
mainstreaming

29. the limits of the Web
onshoring hardware
production
3d tv dying

30. Nicholas Carr, linked http://bryanalexander.org/2013/08/15/have-ebooks-plateaued/

31. Ebook ecosystems

33. blended/flipped
classroom
rise of the net.generation
gaming in education

34. educational entrepreneurship

35. big data and data analytics
develop
campus digital security
threats growing

36. Uses of social
media
Uses of Web
video
Changes in the
LMS world
Blended
learning
Learning
analytics
Changes in
library role
Digital
humanities (in
classroom)
The rise of the
Maker
movement

38. Credit for MOOCs
STEM vs humanities
Sustainability?
xMOOC vs cMOOC
Liberal arts campuses
entering

40. Open content
Possible divide growing
between research and teaching
Changes to the scholarly
publication ecosystem
Rise of the digital humanities
(as scholarly work)
The library role

41. Anxieties about debt and employment

42. Continued cost/value
crisis
Grad school crises
Bipartisan political
pressure

44. College premium persists
Debt closer to car
ownership
Endowments returning,
maybe (11%+ in 2013)

45. Stories about futures
 Event and response
 Creativity
 Roles and times
 Emergent practices and
patterns

46. 1. Fall of the silos
2. Health care nation
3. Peak higher education
4. The new two cultures

48. Content
Teaching
Access
Source

49. Global conversations
increase, filter bubble pops
More access, more
information
Lots of creativity

50. Information prices drop
Faculty creativity, flexibility
grow
IT “ “ “
Academic content
unleashed on the world

51. Industries collapse
Authorship mysterious
Some low quality tech
(videoconf.)
Some higher costs
More malware + less privacy

52. Tech challenges
Outsourcing and offshoring
PLE beats LMS
Crowdsourcing faculty work
Information literacy central

53. Internet has always been
open
Web <> money
Online identity has always
been fictional, playful

54. Medical
sector grows
into leading
US industry
25% of GDP

55. Ageing population

56. Byzantine finances
Treatment improvements
Greater presence in society
Baumol’s disease

57. More programs, more
people, more tech
Increased feminization of
student body
Space sharing w/clinics +
hospitals

58. Some took premed-themed
classes in high school
Medical heroes loom as large as
sports figures
Many already familiar with
eldercare practices

59. Academia
experiences a
serious
correction

60. http://research.studentclearinghouse.org/files/TermEnrollmentReport-Spring2013.pdf

61. Demographic decline
Accelerated prices + sunk
costs
Low public funding
Alternatives rising

62. Fewer, less crowded
campuses
Very international student
body
Low-cost programs ($10K
BA)

63. Vocational tech classes are
widespread in K-12
Apprenticeships are accepted in
career paths
Colleges have always been
transnational

64. 1. Distance
learning
2. Blended
learning

65. On par with face-to-face
Rapid development of
pedagogies, curricula
Appeals on flexibility,
cost

68. No good categorical name:
…which sometimes
indicates the future

69. Blended learning is campus
new normal
Residential education: a
specialized niche
Tenured faculty = community
guides

70. Liberal arts campuses?
• Classrooms in
studio mode
• Flipped
learning is
campus norm
• Some classes
outsourced to
DL

71. Unique physical
environments are central to
campus definition
All campus is blended
learning environment (“place
as library”)

72.  Hands-on
learning (maker
culture,
tinkering):
production +
studies
 3d printing across
the curriculum

74. Unbundled functions: grading,
assessment, advising
Learner-centered
Rising positions: mentor (WGU),
data manager

75. Most learning content has always
been online
Have taken 1-6 DL courses by age
18
Blended learning is normative
Blended life “ “
Collaboration’s norm is distant

76. 1. Fall of the silos
2. Health care nation
3. Peak higher education
4. The new two cultures

77. Collaborate
Use social media
Use futures thinking
Practice open
Pay attention to generations

79.  Individuals will see financial advantages to
pursuing medical careers
 Corporatization of health care
› Increasing integration, management
› Data analysis + “
› Incentives and punishments
› Insurance: ACA makes companies more
accountable

80.  Medicalizing issue as social control
› Maladaptive daydreaming?
› “Sluggish cognitive tempo”
 Proletarianizing academic work
› work/life blur
› Possibility of organization
› Doing this to ourselves

81. coming of age
Asimov, “The Fun They Had”
intelligent assistant
George Leonard, Education and Ecstasy
collaboration
+ sensory input in virtual environments
Disruptions in human interaction
Web + smartphones
New developments?

82. Students immersed in social media
in class
gap between digital and f2f
experience
teach younger ppl to do these 2
styles better
multitasking – can it be learned?

83. More international students
›Distinction between online +
f2f
›How to facilitate?
Different point: ADA/accessibility

84. Balkanized net (NSF)
Academic response?
Grassroots alternatives

85.  Digital divide ->uneven development

86. The blog
http://bryanalexander.org
On the Twitters
http://twitter.com/BryanAlexander
The email
bryan.alexander@gmail.com