The document summarizes the Congressional Budget Office's methodologies for long-term budget, economic, and health spending projections. It discusses how CBO projects factors like potential GDP growth, federal spending on programs like Medicare and Social Security, and the rising federal debt. CBO's projections estimate the budget and economic impacts of demographic and cost trends over the next 30 years if current laws generally remain unchanged. However, the projections are highly uncertain, especially in later years.
BREXIT (Britain Exit) The Reasons & ImpactsSlide Gen
BREXIT_The Reasons & Impacts
Brexit is an abbreviation of "British exit". In 23 June 2016 Britain came out from European Union (EU) by the Vote of Britain’s people.
After Having 43 years of membership this great country makes this big decision. In 1973 United Kingdom got the membership in EU to expand the business among 28 members and share a common economical system.
Dr. Jean Dreze and Reetika Khera in 2012 computed Human Development Index for 20 Major Indian states using the then available latest data. HDI that they developed was combined with its variant that addressed the status of Children in the 0-5 years age group specifically. Their findings were published in Economic and Political Weekly.
A development model for Bangladesh based on South Korea's socio-economic transformation is about the way of improving socio economic condition and based on that how Bangladesh can improve it's condition.
The economic performance and growth of South Korea as a Newly Industrialized Country is appreciated by international scholars and policy makers and set this country as a model worldwide. Historically South Korea had an agriculture-based economy in the 1960s. Factors that are said to be the fuel behind South Korea’s Economic Success are the structural transformation and policies. Structural transformation to policy reforms aimed at opening the country to foreign markets. Indeed, the export-oriented policies of South Korea are one of the most important factors of its success: South Korea is now one of the top 10 exporters in the world, and its exports as a percentage of GDP increased from 25.9 percent in 1995 to 56.3 percent in 2012.
Many factors have contributed to this success: the largely positive international trade environment, a good relationship with the United States, the hard work and savings-oriented aspects of its neo-Confucian culture, and a political and social commitment to economic progress. However, many other countries whose external environment and internal resources were equal or superior to those in South Korea have not performed nearly as well. Government policy has played a key initiating and supporting role. Two additional factors have contributed to the increase in international trade and industrialization in South Korea
An improvement in the business environment
Policies incentivizing investment in innovation
Industrialization:
1960s- 1) Develop import-substitute 2) Expand export-oriented 3) Support producer goods
1970s-1) Expand heavy & chemical industries 2) Shift emphasis from 3) Strengthen export-
1980s- 1) Transform industrial 2) Expand technology 3) Encourage manpower
Science and Technology:
1960-1) Strengthen S & T industries education 2) Build scientific and light industries technological infrastructure,3) Promote foreign industries technology import
1970s-1) Expand technical training, 2) Improve institutional capital import to mechanism for adapting technology import imported technology,3) Promote research-oriented industry applicable to industrial competitiveness needs
1980s-1) Develop and recruit high structure on the basis of level scientists and comparative advantage engineers, 2) Promote productivity of intensive industry R & D, 3) Localize key strategic development and improve technology productivity of industries.
The factors that many sociologists think that may they were behind the social change of South Korea includes many things, as-
• Changing conservative family values
• Gender equality and roles
• Urbanization
• Rapid development of Modern education
• Industrial revolution
• Growth of communication media
• Increase in Transportation and infrastructure
• the emergence of the middle class
Foreign trade has worked as an "engine of growth" in the past, and even in more recent times the "outward oriented growth strategy" adopted by the Newly Industrializing Economies of Asia, including South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Hong kang, has enabled them to overcome the constraints of small resource poor under developed economies Notwithstanding a strong belief in Prebisch Singer and Myrdal thesis at some point of time in the history of international economic relations,
the free trade paradigm in the current WTO administered era has thrown open innumerable opportunities for growth.
On June 23rd 2016 the UK voted in a referendum to leave the European Union.
Prime Minister David Cameron resigned the morning after the vote
A few weeks later, Theresa May was elected leader of the Conservative Party and new Prime Minister.
The terms of the UK’s new economic relationship with the EU remain uncertain.
Hard Brexit
Means that the United Kingdom leaves the EU Single Market and trades under World Trade Organization rules
Under WTO rules, each member must grant the same market access—including charging the same tariffs—to all other members as the most favoured nation
Soft Brexit
Involves the option of staying in the Single Market (like Norway)
As a member of the European Economic Area (EEA), Norway has a free trade agreement with the European Union, which means that there are no tariffs on trade between the two
Presentation by Julie Topoleski, Director of CBO’s Labor, Income Security, and Long-Term Analysis Division, at the 15th Annual Meeting of the OECD’s Working Party of Parliamentary Budget Officials and Independent Fiscal Institutions.
BREXIT (Britain Exit) The Reasons & ImpactsSlide Gen
BREXIT_The Reasons & Impacts
Brexit is an abbreviation of "British exit". In 23 June 2016 Britain came out from European Union (EU) by the Vote of Britain’s people.
After Having 43 years of membership this great country makes this big decision. In 1973 United Kingdom got the membership in EU to expand the business among 28 members and share a common economical system.
Dr. Jean Dreze and Reetika Khera in 2012 computed Human Development Index for 20 Major Indian states using the then available latest data. HDI that they developed was combined with its variant that addressed the status of Children in the 0-5 years age group specifically. Their findings were published in Economic and Political Weekly.
A development model for Bangladesh based on South Korea's socio-economic transformation is about the way of improving socio economic condition and based on that how Bangladesh can improve it's condition.
The economic performance and growth of South Korea as a Newly Industrialized Country is appreciated by international scholars and policy makers and set this country as a model worldwide. Historically South Korea had an agriculture-based economy in the 1960s. Factors that are said to be the fuel behind South Korea’s Economic Success are the structural transformation and policies. Structural transformation to policy reforms aimed at opening the country to foreign markets. Indeed, the export-oriented policies of South Korea are one of the most important factors of its success: South Korea is now one of the top 10 exporters in the world, and its exports as a percentage of GDP increased from 25.9 percent in 1995 to 56.3 percent in 2012.
Many factors have contributed to this success: the largely positive international trade environment, a good relationship with the United States, the hard work and savings-oriented aspects of its neo-Confucian culture, and a political and social commitment to economic progress. However, many other countries whose external environment and internal resources were equal or superior to those in South Korea have not performed nearly as well. Government policy has played a key initiating and supporting role. Two additional factors have contributed to the increase in international trade and industrialization in South Korea
An improvement in the business environment
Policies incentivizing investment in innovation
Industrialization:
1960s- 1) Develop import-substitute 2) Expand export-oriented 3) Support producer goods
1970s-1) Expand heavy & chemical industries 2) Shift emphasis from 3) Strengthen export-
1980s- 1) Transform industrial 2) Expand technology 3) Encourage manpower
Science and Technology:
1960-1) Strengthen S & T industries education 2) Build scientific and light industries technological infrastructure,3) Promote foreign industries technology import
1970s-1) Expand technical training, 2) Improve institutional capital import to mechanism for adapting technology import imported technology,3) Promote research-oriented industry applicable to industrial competitiveness needs
1980s-1) Develop and recruit high structure on the basis of level scientists and comparative advantage engineers, 2) Promote productivity of intensive industry R & D, 3) Localize key strategic development and improve technology productivity of industries.
The factors that many sociologists think that may they were behind the social change of South Korea includes many things, as-
• Changing conservative family values
• Gender equality and roles
• Urbanization
• Rapid development of Modern education
• Industrial revolution
• Growth of communication media
• Increase in Transportation and infrastructure
• the emergence of the middle class
Foreign trade has worked as an "engine of growth" in the past, and even in more recent times the "outward oriented growth strategy" adopted by the Newly Industrializing Economies of Asia, including South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Hong kang, has enabled them to overcome the constraints of small resource poor under developed economies Notwithstanding a strong belief in Prebisch Singer and Myrdal thesis at some point of time in the history of international economic relations,
the free trade paradigm in the current WTO administered era has thrown open innumerable opportunities for growth.
On June 23rd 2016 the UK voted in a referendum to leave the European Union.
Prime Minister David Cameron resigned the morning after the vote
A few weeks later, Theresa May was elected leader of the Conservative Party and new Prime Minister.
The terms of the UK’s new economic relationship with the EU remain uncertain.
Hard Brexit
Means that the United Kingdom leaves the EU Single Market and trades under World Trade Organization rules
Under WTO rules, each member must grant the same market access—including charging the same tariffs—to all other members as the most favoured nation
Soft Brexit
Involves the option of staying in the Single Market (like Norway)
As a member of the European Economic Area (EEA), Norway has a free trade agreement with the European Union, which means that there are no tariffs on trade between the two
Presentation by Julie Topoleski, Director of CBO’s Labor, Income Security, and Long-Term Analysis Division, at the 15th Annual Meeting of the OECD’s Working Party of Parliamentary Budget Officials and Independent Fiscal Institutions.
Presentation by Molly Dahl, Chief of CBO’s Long-Term Analysis Unit, at a meeting of the National Conference of State Legislatures’ Budget Working Group.
Presentation by Julie Topoleski, Chief of the Long-Term Analysis Unit in CBO’s Health, Retirement, and Long-Term Analysis Division, to the Social Security Advisory Board.
Both CBO and the Social Security Trustees project a shortfall in Social Security’s finances, but they differ in their assessment of its magnitude. This presentation describes that difference and the major factors that contribute to it.
Presentation by Lara Robillard, an analyst in CBO’s Budget Analysis Division, to the Leadership Fellowship Program at the National Hispanic Medical Association.
Presentation by Philip Ellis, CBO’s Deputy Assistant Director for Health, Retirement, and Long-Term Analysis, to staff of the U.S. Department of Commerce.
This presentation describes CBO’s general approach to policy analysis and its role in supporting the Congress; summarizes several elements of the agency’s projections of health care spending; and reviews examples of policy proposals and approaches affecting health care that CBO has analyzed recently.
At 78 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), federal debt held by the public is now at its highest level since shortly after World War II. If current laws generally remained unchanged, CBO projects, growing budget deficits would boost that debt sharply over the next 30 years; it would approach 100 percent of GDP by the end of the next decade and 152 percent by 2048. That amount would be the highest in the nation’s history by far. The prospect of large and growing debt poses substantial risks for the nation and presents policymakers with significant challenges.
CBO makes baseline economic and budget projections covering the next 10 years and also the next 30 years. The projections incorporate the assumption that current laws generally do not change. To produce the 30-year economic projections, CBO uses its policy growth model, which relies on a standard economic framework that focuses on the inputs that drive growth in the supply side of the economy: the amount of labor, the productive services provided by capital, and total factor productivity.
CBO makes baseline economic and budget projections covering the next 10 years and also the next 30 years. The projections incorporate the assumption that current laws generally do not change. To produce the 30-year economic projections, CBO uses its policy growth model, which relies on a standard economic framework that focuses on the inputs that drive growth in the supply side of the economy: the amount of labor, the productive services provided by capital, and total factor productivity.
Presentation by Wendy Edelberg, an Associate Director for Economic Analysis at CBO, and Jeffrey Werling, Assistant Director of CBO's Macroeconomic Analysis Division, at the 2019 Social Security Technical Panel.
Presentation by Lara Robillard, Principal Analyst, CBO’s Budget Analysis Division, to the Leadership Fellowship Program at the National Hispanic Medical Association.
Presentation on federal health care spending by Carrie Colla, Director of CBO's Health Analysis Division, at a Trustee Briefing of the Committee for Economic Development of The Conference Board.
Similar to CBO’s 2023 Long-Term Budget Projections (20)
Presentation by Jared Jageler, David Adler, Noelia Duchovny, and Evan Herrnstadt, analysts in CBO’s Microeconomic Studies and Health Analysis Divisions, at the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists Summer Conference.
Presentation by Mark Hadley, CBO's Chief Operating Officer and General Counsel, at the 2nd NABO-OECD Annual Conference of Asian Parliamentary Budget Officials.
Presentation by Daria Pelech, an analyst in CBO’s Health Analysis Division, at the Center for Health Insurance Reform McCourt School of Public Policy, Georgetown University.
This slide deck highlights CBO’s key findings about the outlook for the economy as described in its new report, The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2024 to 2034.
Presentation by CBO analysts Rebecca Heller, Shannon Mok, and James Pearce, and Census Bureau research economist Jonathan Rothbaum at the American Economic Association Annual Meeting, Committee on Economic Statistics.
Presentation by Eric J. Labs, an analyst in CBO’s National Security Division, at the Bank of America 2024 Defense Outlook and Commercial Aerospace Forum.
Presentation by Elizabeth Ash, William Carrington, Rebecca Heller, and Grace Hwang of CBO’s Labor, Income Security, and Long-Term Analysis and Health Analysis divisions to the Children’s Health Group, American Academy of Pediatrics.
In the President’s 2024 budget request, total military compensation is $551 billion, including veterans' benefits. That amount represents an increase of 134 percent since 1999 after removing the effects of inflation.
CBO regularly analyzes the distribution of income in the United States and how it has changed over time. This slide deck presents the distributions of household income, means-tested transfers, and federal taxes between 1979 and 2020.
Understanding the Challenges of Street ChildrenSERUDS INDIA
By raising awareness, providing support, advocating for change, and offering assistance to children in need, individuals can play a crucial role in improving the lives of street children and helping them realize their full potential
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A process server is a authorized person for delivering legal documents, such as summons, complaints, subpoenas, and other court papers, to peoples involved in legal proceedings.
What is the point of small housing associations.pptxPaul Smith
Given the small scale of housing associations and their relative high cost per home what is the point of them and how do we justify their continued existance
This session provides a comprehensive overview of the latest updates to the Uniform Administrative Requirements, Cost Principles, and Audit Requirements for Federal Awards (commonly known as the Uniform Guidance) outlined in the 2 CFR 200.
With a focus on the 2024 revisions issued by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), participants will gain insight into the key changes affecting federal grant recipients. The session will delve into critical regulatory updates, providing attendees with the knowledge and tools necessary to navigate and comply with the evolving landscape of federal grant management.
Learning Objectives:
- Understand the rationale behind the 2024 updates to the Uniform Guidance outlined in 2 CFR 200, and their implications for federal grant recipients.
- Identify the key changes and revisions introduced by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) in the 2024 edition of 2 CFR 200.
- Gain proficiency in applying the updated regulations to ensure compliance with federal grant requirements and avoid potential audit findings.
- Develop strategies for effectively implementing the new guidelines within the grant management processes of their respective organizations, fostering efficiency and accountability in federal grant administration.
Jennifer Schaus and Associates hosts a complimentary webinar series on The FAR in 2024. Join the webinars on Wednesdays and Fridays at noon, eastern.
Recordings are on YouTube and the company website.
https://www.youtube.com/@jenniferschaus/videos
2024: The FAR - Federal Acquisition Regulations, Part 37
CBO’s 2023 Long-Term Budget Projections
1. Presentation at the American Enterprise Institute:
Methodologies in Fiscal, Economic, and Health Spending Projections
September 22, 2023
Molly Dahl
Labor, Income Security, and Long-Term Analysis Division
CBO’s 2023 Long-Term Budget
Projections
For information about the event, see www.aei.org/events/methodologies-in-fiscal-economic-and-health-spending-projections.
2. 1
Each year, the Congressional Budget Office provides the Congress with its
projections of what the federal budget and the economy would look like over the
next 30 years if current laws generally remained unchanged. Those projections
show the estimated effects of demographic trends, economic developments, and
health care costs on federal spending, revenues, deficits, and debt over the next
30 years.
CBO also publishes an annual report that provides long-term projections for the
Social Security system. Those projections span 75 years—the same projection
period that the Social Security trustees use in their annual report.
CBO’s projections are highly uncertain, especially in later years. Economic
conditions that differed from those CBO projects and fiscal policy that differed
from current law could yield noticeably different results.
CBO’s Long-Term Projections
3. 2
Total Deficits, Primary Deficits, and Net Interest
Primary deficits, which
exclude net interest costs,
equal 3.3 percent of gross
domestic product (GDP) in
both 2023 and 2053.
Combined with rising
interest rates, those large
and sustained primary
deficits cause net outlays for
interest to almost triple in
relation to GDP.
4. 3
Federal Debt Held by the Public
In CBO’s projections, debt
rises in relation to GDP over
the next three decades,
exceeding any previously
recorded level—and it is on
track to continue growing
after 2053.
5. 4
For information about how CBO projects potential output, see Robert Shackleton, Estimating and Projecting Potential Output Using CBO’s Forecasting Growth Model, Working Paper
2018-03 (Congressional Budget Office, February 2018), www.cbo.gov/publication/53558.
CBO’s approach involves projections of:
▪ Potential (maximum sustainable) output in a Solow-type growth model and
▪ Actual output in a standard macroeconometric model.
The estimate of potential output is mainly based on estimates of:
▪ The potential labor force,
▪ The flow of services from the capital stock, and
▪ Potential total factor productivity (TFP) in the nonfarm business sector.
CBO’s Approach to Economic Forecasting
6. 5
Average Annual Growth of Real Potential GDP and Its Components
In CBO’s projections, real
potential GDP (the maximum
sustainable output of the
economy, adjusted to remove
the effects of inflation) grows
more slowly throughout the
2023–2053 period than it
has, on average, over the
past 30 years.
That slower growth is
explained by slower growth
in the potential labor force
and in potential labor force
productivity.
7. 6
In at least two ways, climate change affects CBO’s projections of economic
growth in future decades.
First, climate change has affected recent productivity trends. Because CBO’s
projections are based in part on those recent trends, they implicitly account for a
portion of the future effects of climate change.
Second, the agency explicitly estimates a certain amount of additional impact on
the growth of TFP from future changes in the climate.
In all, climate change reduces CBO’s projection of GDP in 2053 by 1.0 percent.
Effects of Climate Change on the Economy
8. 7
Congressional Budget Office, The 2021 Long-Term Budget Outlook (March 2021), www.cbo.gov/publication/56977; and Evan Herrnstadt and Terry Dinan, CBO’s Projection of the
Effect of Climate Change on U.S. Economic Output, Working Paper 2020-06 (Congressional Budget Office, September 2020), www.cbo.gov/publication/56505.
How Climate Change Is Expected to Change the Level of
Real GDP in 2050
10. 9
Total Outlays and Revenues
In most years, growth in
outlays is projected to
outpace growth in revenues,
resulting in widening budget
deficits.
11. 10
Outlays, by Category
Rising interest rates and
mounting debt cause net
outlays for interest to
increase from 2.5 percent
of GDP in 2023 to
6.7 percent in 2053.
Outlays for the major
health care programs rise
from 5.8 percent of GDP to
8.6 percent as the average
age of the population
increases and health care
costs grow.
The aging of the population
also pushes up outlays for
Social Security, which
increase from 5.1 percent
of GDP to 6.2 percent.
12. 11
CHIP = Children’s Health Insurance Program.
Outlays for Medicare are net of premiums and other offsetting receipts. “Marketplace Subsidies” refers to outlays to subsidize health insurance purchased through the marketplaces
established under the Affordable Care Act and related spending.
Composition of Outlays for the Major Health Care Programs
Spending on Medicare is
projected to account for
more than four-fifths of the
increase in spending on the
major health care programs
over the next 30 years.
13. 12
CBO’s 10-year baseline budget projections provide a benchmark for estimates of
the costs of legislative proposals. Those projections are based, in part, on
detailed modeling of the health care system.
The agency uses a more aggregate and mechanical approach to project
spending for the two decades that follow that initial 10-year projection period.
How CBO Projects Spending on Health Care
14. 13
CBO’s analysts start with the most recent data on Medicare spending available.
They then use the following pieces to build the projections:
▪ Medicare population (based on CBO’s projections of the total population, by
age and sex, and on data on Medicare participation),
▪ Price (Medicare’s payment rates),
▪ Changes in the composition of the Medicare population, by age and sex,
▪ Anticipated policy changes, and
▪ Growth in Medicare spending that cannot be explained by those four factors.
How CBO Projects Spending on Medicare in the First Decade of the
Projection Period
15. 14
How CBO Projects Spending on Medicare in the Second and Third
Decades of the Projection Period
Growth in Health
Outlays
Additional Cost
Growth
Growth in
Potential Nominal
GDP per Person
Growth in CBO’s
Beneficiary Cost
Index
16. 15
For a discussion of the methods underlying projections by the Office of the Actuary, see Stephen K. Heffler and others, Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, Office of the
Actuary, memorandum about the long-term projection assumptions for Medicare and aggregate national health expenditures (April 22, 2020), https://tinyurl.com/msfjx6te (PDF).
The estimates of additional cost growth in CBO’s projections move linearly from the
rates at the end of the 10-year budget period to the estimated rates at the end of the
30-year projection period.
CBO’s estimate of additional cost growth in health care overall in 2053 is 0.6 percent.
It is 0.1 percent for Medicare Part A , 0.2 percent for Medicare Part B, and 0.6 percent
for Medicare Part D.
To estimate additional cost growth in the health care sector, CBO uses essentially the
same method that the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services’ Office of the
Actuary uses to produce the 75-year projections of Medicare spending for its annual
report to the Congress, although CBO uses its own estimates of key parameters.
CBO’s Estimate of Additional Cost Growth
17. 16
The Demographic Outlook: 2023 to 2053 (January 2023),
www.cbo.gov/publication/58612.
The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2023 to 2033 (February 2023),
www.cbo.gov/publication/58848.
An Update to the Budget Outlook: 2023 to 2033 (May 2023),
www.cbo.gov/publication/59096.
The 2023 Long-Term Budget Outlook (June 2023), www.cbo.gov/publication/59014.
CBO’s 2023 Long-Term Projections for Social Security (June 2023),
www.cbo.gov/publication/59184.
The Long-Term Budget Outlook Under Alternative Scenarios for the Economy and the Budget
(July 2023), www.cbo.gov/publication/59233.
Relevant CBO Publications in 2023