SlideShare a Scribd company logo
1 of 22
Download to read offline
Presentation to the Republican Members of the House Energy and
Commerce Committee
February 27, 2023
Phillip L. Swagel
Director
The Budget: Health Care, Energy,
and Telecommunications
For further discussion of the projections in this presentation, see Congressional Budget Office, The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2023 to 2033 (February 2023),
www.cbo.gov/publication/58848.
1
CBO was established to give the Congress a stronger role in budget matters.
The agency conducts objective and impartial analysis of budgetary and economic
issues. It provides budget and economic projections, cost estimates, analytic
reports, and other materials on a variety of topics.
As a strictly nonpartisan agency, CBO makes no policy recommendations and
carries out its mission with integrity.
In carrying out its mission, CBO follows processes that are specified in statute or
developed by the agency with the budget committees and Congressional
leadership. CBO’s chief responsibility under the Budget Act is to help the budget
committees with the matters under their jurisdiction.
CBO’s Role
2
The Budget
3
Years are fiscal years.
Total Deficits, Primary Deficits, and Net Interest Outlays
In CBO’s projections, net
interest outlays increase by
1.2 percent of GDP from
2023 to 2033 and are a
major contributor to the
growth of total deficits.
Primary deficits increase by
0.4 percent of GDP over that
period.
4
Years are fiscal years.
Changes in CBO’s Baseline Projections of the
10-Year Deficit Since May 2022
The cumulative deficit over
the 2023–2032 period is
$3.1 trillion larger in CBO’s
current baseline projections
than it was in the agency’s
May 2022 projections,
mainly because of newly
enacted legislation and
changes to the economic
forecast that boost projected
net interest outlays and
spending on mandatory
programs, such as Social
Security.
5
Years are fiscal years.
Federal Debt Held by the Public
Federal debt held by the
public is projected to
increase in each year of the
projection period and to
reach 118 percent of GDP in
2033—higher than it has
ever been. In the two
decades that follow, growing
deficits are projected to push
federal debt higher still, to
195 percent of GDP in 2053.
6
The Economy
7
Years are calendar years. Shaded vertical bars indicate periods of recession.
Interest Rates
In CBO’s projections, the
Federal Reserve further
increases the target range
for the federal funds rate in
early 2023 to reduce
inflationary pressures in the
economy. That rate is
projected to fall in 2024, as
inflation slows and
unemployment rises. The
interest rate on 10-year
Treasury notes, however,
remains at 3.8 percent from
2024 to the end of the
projection period.
8
Years are calendar years. Shaded vertical bars indicate periods of recession. Core inflation excludes food and energy prices.
Inflation
In CBO’s projections,
inflation declines in 2023 as
pressures ease from factors
that, since mid-2020, have
caused demand to grow
more rapidly than supply.
That decline continues until
2027, when the rate of
inflation reaches the Federal
Reserve’s long-run goal.
(Inflation is measured by the
price index for personal
consumption expenditures.)
9
Years are calendar years. Shaded vertical bars indicate periods of recession.
Growth of Real GDP
In CBO’s projections, output
growth comes to a halt in
2023 in response to the
sharp rise in interest rates
during 2022. Then, as falling
inflation allows the Federal
Reserve to reduce the target
range for the federal funds
rate, the growth of real GDP
rebounds, led by the
interest-sensitive sectors of
the economy.
10
Health Care in the Budget
11
Percentage of Gross Domestic Product
Social Security Other Mandatory Discretionary
Net Interest Major Health Care Programs
2053
2043
2033
2023
2013 2053
2043
2033
2023
2013 2053
2043
2033
2023
2013
0
10
20
30
40
0
10
20
30
40
Projected
Total Outlays
Years are fiscal years. Total outlays include mandatory and discretionary spending. ACA = Affordable Care Act.
The Extent to Which Health Programs Drive Spending, Specifically
Mandatory Spending
CBO prepares a budget
baseline that serves as a
benchmark for measuring the
effects of proposed legislation
affecting spending.
As part of its analysis of
mandatory spending, CBO
estimates health insurance
coverage and projected
spending on health care
programs, including federal
subsidies, Medicare, and
Medicaid.
Subsidies include premium
tax credits for policies in the
ACA marketplaces and the
tax subsidy for employment-
based health insurance.
12
Projected
0
2
4
6
8
10
2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 2048 2053
Medicaid, CHIP, and
Marketplace Subsidies
Medicare
Percentage of Gross Domestic Product
Years are fiscal years (FY). CHIP = Children’s Health Insurance Program
Projected Federal Outlays for Major Health Care Programs
Projections for Major Health
Care Programs for FY 2023
Billions of Dollars
Medicare 820
Medicaid 589
Marketplace Subsidies 81
Children’s Health
Insurance Program 18
13
Years are fiscal years.
Certain spending that falls within budget functions 550 (Health) and 570
(Medicare) is under the committee’s jurisdiction.
Projected mandatory spending for function 550 totals $760 billion in 2023 and
$9.1 trillion over the 2023–2033 period.
Projected discretionary spending for function 550 totals $110 billion in 2023 and
$1.2 trillion over the 2023–2033 period, if appropriations grow with inflation.
Projected spending for function 570 totals $820 billion in 2023 and $13.1 trillion
over the 2023–2033 period, almost all of which is mandatory.
Projected Spending Within the Budget Functions of Health Care
14
Health and Human Services
§ Medicare ($820 billion)
§ Medicaid ($589 billion)
§ Affordable Care Act’s premium tax credits and related spending ($81 billion)
§ Children’s Health Insurance Program ($18 billion)
§ National Institutes of Health ($43 billion)
§ Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ($15 billion)
§ Health Resources and Services Administration ($15 billion)
§ Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration ($8 billion)
Projected Federal Spending on Major Components of Health
Care Spending in Fiscal Year 2023
15
See Table 1 in Congressional Budget Office, Options for Reducing the Deficit, 2023 to 2032—Volume I: Larger Reductions (December 2022), www.cbo.gov/publication/58164.
Options for Larger Spending Reductions for Fiscal Years 2023 to
2032 That Relate to Health Care
16
Energy and Environment
in the Budget
17
Years are fiscal years.
Certain spending within budget function 270 (energy) and subfunction 304
(pollution control and abatement) is under the committee’s jurisdiction.
Projected mandatory spending for function 270 totals (net of offsetting receipts)
about -$7 billion in 2023 and $24 billion over the 2023–2033 period, mostly from
sales of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and funding provided through
Public Law 117-169 (the 2022 reconciliation act).
Projected discretionary spending for function 270 totals $9 billion in 2023 and
$235 billion over the 2023–2033 period (as inflated in CBO’s February 2023
baseline).
Projected mandatory spending for subfunction 304 totals $1 billion in 2023 and
$48 billion over the 2023–2033 period.
Projected discretionary spending for subfunction 304 totals $14 billion in 2023
and $280 billion over the 2023–2033 period (as inflated in CBO’s February 2023
baseline).
Selected Spending Within the Budget Functions of Energy
and the Environment
18
Department Of Energy (DOE)
§ Grants for industrial facilities, grid resiliency, battery manufacturing, regional hub programs,
Civil Nuclear Credit Program, Weatherization Assistance Program
§ Rebates for residential energy efficiency
§ Loans under the Title XVII loan guarantee program, the Advanced Technology Vehicles
Manufacturing loan program, and the Transmission Facility Financing program
§ Strategic Petroleum Reserve
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
§ Grants for reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, environmental and climate justice
initiatives, and state and tribal assistance
§ Revenues from the Methane Emissions Reduction Program
DOE and EPA both received large increases in funding through the Infrastructure Investment
and Jobs Act (roughly $120 billion) and the 2022 reconciliation act (roughly $75 billion). The
Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2023 provided about $20 billion in discretionary funding for
programs in function 270 and subfunction 304.
Major Energy and Environment Programs, by Agency
19
Telecommunications in the Budget
20
Federal Communications Commission (FCC)
§ Universal Service Fund
§ Affordable Connectivity Program
§ Spectrum auctions
National Telecommunications and Information Administration
§ Broadband Equity, Access, and Deployment Program
Select Programs in Telecommunications
21
Spectrum auction background
§ The right to use the electromagnetic spectrum is regulated by the FCC.
§ The FCC uses competitive auctions when it awards licenses to use the spectrum.
§ The FCC’s authority to conduct auctions expires on March 9, 2023. However, the agency
is authorized to conduct two specific auctions after 2023 for the purposes of making
certain frequencies currently used by federal agencies available for commercial use.
Budgetary effects of spectrum auctions
§ Under current law, proceeds from FCC auctions are deposited in the Treasury as
offsetting receipts, but those proceeds may be spent for two purposes:
– To cover the FCC’s auction expenses (scored as increases in direct spending), and
– To cover the costs to relocate incumbent federal systems (scored as increases in
direct spending).
§ Winning bidders pay for their licenses at the conclusion of each auction, but their
payments are not recorded in the budget until the FCC issues licenses.
§ CBO’s baseline projections reflect the duration and scope of the FCC’s auction authority
under current law.
Budgetary Effects of Spectrum Auctions

More Related Content

Similar to The Budget: Health Care, Energy, and Telecommunications

Congressional Budget Office Revises 2013 Budget Deficit
Congressional Budget Office Revises 2013 Budget DeficitCongressional Budget Office Revises 2013 Budget Deficit
Congressional Budget Office Revises 2013 Budget DeficitAdvisors4Advisors
 
An Overview of the 2022 Long-Term Budget Outlook
An Overview of the 2022 Long-Term Budget OutlookAn Overview of the 2022 Long-Term Budget Outlook
An Overview of the 2022 Long-Term Budget OutlookCongressional Budget Office
 
CBO’s Role in the Federal Budget Process and Its Work Assessing Climate Chang...
CBO’s Role in the Federal Budget Process and Its Work Assessing Climate Chang...CBO’s Role in the Federal Budget Process and Its Work Assessing Climate Chang...
CBO’s Role in the Federal Budget Process and Its Work Assessing Climate Chang...Congressional Budget Office
 
An Overview of The 2018 Budget and Economic Outlook
An Overview of The 2018 Budget and Economic OutlookAn Overview of The 2018 Budget and Economic Outlook
An Overview of The 2018 Budget and Economic OutlookCongressional Budget Office
 
Long-Term Projections of Health Care Spending and the Implications for the Fe...
Long-Term Projections of Health Care Spending and the Implications for the Fe...Long-Term Projections of Health Care Spending and the Implications for the Fe...
Long-Term Projections of Health Care Spending and the Implications for the Fe...Congressional Budget Office
 
An Overview of the 2022 Long-Term Budget Outlook
An Overview of the 2022 Long-Term Budget OutlookAn Overview of the 2022 Long-Term Budget Outlook
An Overview of the 2022 Long-Term Budget OutlookCongressional Budget Office
 
The Budget Outlook and Options for Reducing the Deficit
The Budget Outlook and Options for Reducing the DeficitThe Budget Outlook and Options for Reducing the Deficit
The Budget Outlook and Options for Reducing the DeficitCongressional Budget Office
 
CBO’s Role and Most Recent Long-Term Budget Projections
CBO’s Role and Most Recent Long-Term Budget ProjectionsCBO’s Role and Most Recent Long-Term Budget Projections
CBO’s Role and Most Recent Long-Term Budget ProjectionsCongressional Budget Office
 
Trends in DoD’s and VA’s Budgets for Military Compensation
Trends in DoD’s and VA’s Budgets for Military CompensationTrends in DoD’s and VA’s Budgets for Military Compensation
Trends in DoD’s and VA’s Budgets for Military CompensationCongressional Budget Office
 
President Obama's FY 2014 Budget Proposal
President Obama's FY 2014 Budget ProposalPresident Obama's FY 2014 Budget Proposal
President Obama's FY 2014 Budget ProposalPatton Boggs LLP
 

Similar to The Budget: Health Care, Energy, and Telecommunications (20)

Congressional Budget Office Revises 2013 Budget Deficit
Congressional Budget Office Revises 2013 Budget DeficitCongressional Budget Office Revises 2013 Budget Deficit
Congressional Budget Office Revises 2013 Budget Deficit
 
Health Care Options for Reducing the Deficit
Health Care Options for Reducing the DeficitHealth Care Options for Reducing the Deficit
Health Care Options for Reducing the Deficit
 
Budget and Economic Projections
Budget and Economic ProjectionsBudget and Economic Projections
Budget and Economic Projections
 
Federal Health Spending Update
Federal Health Spending UpdateFederal Health Spending Update
Federal Health Spending Update
 
An Overview of the 2022 Long-Term Budget Outlook
An Overview of the 2022 Long-Term Budget OutlookAn Overview of the 2022 Long-Term Budget Outlook
An Overview of the 2022 Long-Term Budget Outlook
 
CBO’s Role in the Federal Budget Process and Its Work Assessing Climate Chang...
CBO’s Role in the Federal Budget Process and Its Work Assessing Climate Chang...CBO’s Role in the Federal Budget Process and Its Work Assessing Climate Chang...
CBO’s Role in the Federal Budget Process and Its Work Assessing Climate Chang...
 
The 2018 Long-Term Budget Outlook in 25 Slides
The 2018 Long-Term Budget Outlook in 25 SlidesThe 2018 Long-Term Budget Outlook in 25 Slides
The 2018 Long-Term Budget Outlook in 25 Slides
 
An Overview of The 2018 Budget and Economic Outlook
An Overview of The 2018 Budget and Economic OutlookAn Overview of The 2018 Budget and Economic Outlook
An Overview of The 2018 Budget and Economic Outlook
 
The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2022 to 2032
The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2022 to 2032The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2022 to 2032
The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2022 to 2032
 
Long-Term Projections of Health Care Spending and the Implications for the Fe...
Long-Term Projections of Health Care Spending and the Implications for the Fe...Long-Term Projections of Health Care Spending and the Implications for the Fe...
Long-Term Projections of Health Care Spending and the Implications for the Fe...
 
An Overview of the 2022 Long-Term Budget Outlook
An Overview of the 2022 Long-Term Budget OutlookAn Overview of the 2022 Long-Term Budget Outlook
An Overview of the 2022 Long-Term Budget Outlook
 
The Budget Outlook and Options for Reducing the Deficit
The Budget Outlook and Options for Reducing the DeficitThe Budget Outlook and Options for Reducing the Deficit
The Budget Outlook and Options for Reducing the Deficit
 
CBO- ECONOMIC 2020 -230
CBO- ECONOMIC 2020 -230 CBO- ECONOMIC 2020 -230
CBO- ECONOMIC 2020 -230
 
CBO’s Role and Most Recent Long-Term Budget Projections
CBO’s Role and Most Recent Long-Term Budget ProjectionsCBO’s Role and Most Recent Long-Term Budget Projections
CBO’s Role and Most Recent Long-Term Budget Projections
 
Health Care and the Federal Budget
Health Care and the Federal Budget Health Care and the Federal Budget
Health Care and the Federal Budget
 
CBO’s Support of the U.S. Congress
CBO’s Support of the U.S. Congress CBO’s Support of the U.S. Congress
CBO’s Support of the U.S. Congress
 
Trends in DoD’s and VA’s Budgets for Military Compensation
Trends in DoD’s and VA’s Budgets for Military CompensationTrends in DoD’s and VA’s Budgets for Military Compensation
Trends in DoD’s and VA’s Budgets for Military Compensation
 
The Budget Outlook for 2022 to 2032 in 8 Slides
The Budget Outlook for 2022 to 2032 in 8 SlidesThe Budget Outlook for 2022 to 2032 in 8 Slides
The Budget Outlook for 2022 to 2032 in 8 Slides
 
President Obama's FY 2014 Budget Proposal
President Obama's FY 2014 Budget ProposalPresident Obama's FY 2014 Budget Proposal
President Obama's FY 2014 Budget Proposal
 
CBO’s 10-Year Budget and Economic Projections
CBO’s 10-Year Budget and Economic ProjectionsCBO’s 10-Year Budget and Economic Projections
CBO’s 10-Year Budget and Economic Projections
 

More from Congressional Budget Office

Introduction to the Role of the Congressional Budget Office
Introduction to the Role of the Congressional Budget OfficeIntroduction to the Role of the Congressional Budget Office
Introduction to the Role of the Congressional Budget OfficeCongressional Budget Office
 
The Federal Perspective on Coverage of Medications to Treat Obesity: Consider...
The Federal Perspective on Coverage of Medications to Treat Obesity: Consider...The Federal Perspective on Coverage of Medications to Treat Obesity: Consider...
The Federal Perspective on Coverage of Medications to Treat Obesity: Consider...Congressional Budget Office
 
CBO’s Approach to Estimating the Budgetary Effects of the No Surprises Act of...
CBO’s Approach to Estimating the Budgetary Effects of the No Surprises Act of...CBO’s Approach to Estimating the Budgetary Effects of the No Surprises Act of...
CBO’s Approach to Estimating the Budgetary Effects of the No Surprises Act of...Congressional Budget Office
 
The Budget and Economic Outlook for 2024 to 2034: Press Briefing Slides
The Budget and Economic Outlook for 2024 to 2034: Press Briefing SlidesThe Budget and Economic Outlook for 2024 to 2034: Press Briefing Slides
The Budget and Economic Outlook for 2024 to 2034: Press Briefing SlidesCongressional Budget Office
 
The Economic Outlook for 2024 to 2034 in 19 Slides
The Economic Outlook for 2024 to 2034 in 19 SlidesThe Economic Outlook for 2024 to 2034 in 19 Slides
The Economic Outlook for 2024 to 2034 in 19 SlidesCongressional Budget Office
 
Using Multiple Data Sources to Learn About the Race and Ethnicity of Taxpayers
Using Multiple Data Sources to Learn About the Race and Ethnicity of TaxpayersUsing Multiple Data Sources to Learn About the Race and Ethnicity of Taxpayers
Using Multiple Data Sources to Learn About the Race and Ethnicity of TaxpayersCongressional Budget Office
 
Perspectives on the Navy’s 2024 Shipbuilding Plan
Perspectives on the Navy’s 2024 Shipbuilding PlanPerspectives on the Navy’s 2024 Shipbuilding Plan
Perspectives on the Navy’s 2024 Shipbuilding PlanCongressional Budget Office
 
The 2024 Outlook for Navy Shipbuilding: Familiar Plans and Higher Costs
The 2024 Outlook for Navy Shipbuilding: Familiar Plans and Higher CostsThe 2024 Outlook for Navy Shipbuilding: Familiar Plans and Higher Costs
The 2024 Outlook for Navy Shipbuilding: Familiar Plans and Higher CostsCongressional Budget Office
 
Exploring the Effects of Medicaid During Childhood on the Economy and the Budget
Exploring the Effects of Medicaid During Childhood on the Economy and the BudgetExploring the Effects of Medicaid During Childhood on the Economy and the Budget
Exploring the Effects of Medicaid During Childhood on the Economy and the BudgetCongressional Budget Office
 
Approaches to Estimating the Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment
 Approaches to Estimating the Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment Approaches to Estimating the Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment
Approaches to Estimating the Noncyclical Rate of UnemploymentCongressional Budget Office
 
CBO’s Analysis of the Long-Term Budgetary Outlook
CBO’s Analysis of the Long-Term Budgetary OutlookCBO’s Analysis of the Long-Term Budgetary Outlook
CBO’s Analysis of the Long-Term Budgetary OutlookCongressional Budget Office
 
Projecting the Effects of U.S. Federal Policies on Electric Vehicle Demand an...
Projecting the Effects of U.S. Federal Policies on Electric Vehicle Demand an...Projecting the Effects of U.S. Federal Policies on Electric Vehicle Demand an...
Projecting the Effects of U.S. Federal Policies on Electric Vehicle Demand an...Congressional Budget Office
 
CBO’s Recent Appeals for New Research to Enhance Its Work for the Congress
CBO’s Recent Appeals for New Research to Enhance Its Work for the CongressCBO’s Recent Appeals for New Research to Enhance Its Work for the Congress
CBO’s Recent Appeals for New Research to Enhance Its Work for the CongressCongressional Budget Office
 
Trends in the Distribution of Household Income From 1979 to 2020
Trends in the Distribution of Household Income From 1979 to 2020Trends in the Distribution of Household Income From 1979 to 2020
Trends in the Distribution of Household Income From 1979 to 2020Congressional Budget Office
 
The Federal Budget Process and the Role of the Congressional Budget Office
The Federal Budget Process and the Role of the Congressional Budget OfficeThe Federal Budget Process and the Role of the Congressional Budget Office
The Federal Budget Process and the Role of the Congressional Budget OfficeCongressional Budget Office
 
The Federal Budget Process and the Role of the Congressional Budget Office
The Federal Budget Process and the Role of the Congressional Budget OfficeThe Federal Budget Process and the Role of the Congressional Budget Office
The Federal Budget Process and the Role of the Congressional Budget OfficeCongressional Budget Office
 

More from Congressional Budget Office (20)

Introduction to the Role of the Congressional Budget Office
Introduction to the Role of the Congressional Budget OfficeIntroduction to the Role of the Congressional Budget Office
Introduction to the Role of the Congressional Budget Office
 
The Federal Perspective on Coverage of Medications to Treat Obesity: Consider...
The Federal Perspective on Coverage of Medications to Treat Obesity: Consider...The Federal Perspective on Coverage of Medications to Treat Obesity: Consider...
The Federal Perspective on Coverage of Medications to Treat Obesity: Consider...
 
CBO’s Approach to Estimating the Budgetary Effects of the No Surprises Act of...
CBO’s Approach to Estimating the Budgetary Effects of the No Surprises Act of...CBO’s Approach to Estimating the Budgetary Effects of the No Surprises Act of...
CBO’s Approach to Estimating the Budgetary Effects of the No Surprises Act of...
 
The Budget and Economic Outlook for 2024 to 2034: Press Briefing Slides
The Budget and Economic Outlook for 2024 to 2034: Press Briefing SlidesThe Budget and Economic Outlook for 2024 to 2034: Press Briefing Slides
The Budget and Economic Outlook for 2024 to 2034: Press Briefing Slides
 
The Economic Outlook for 2024 to 2034 in 19 Slides
The Economic Outlook for 2024 to 2034 in 19 SlidesThe Economic Outlook for 2024 to 2034 in 19 Slides
The Economic Outlook for 2024 to 2034 in 19 Slides
 
Using Multiple Data Sources to Learn About the Race and Ethnicity of Taxpayers
Using Multiple Data Sources to Learn About the Race and Ethnicity of TaxpayersUsing Multiple Data Sources to Learn About the Race and Ethnicity of Taxpayers
Using Multiple Data Sources to Learn About the Race and Ethnicity of Taxpayers
 
Perspectives on the Navy’s 2024 Shipbuilding Plan
Perspectives on the Navy’s 2024 Shipbuilding PlanPerspectives on the Navy’s 2024 Shipbuilding Plan
Perspectives on the Navy’s 2024 Shipbuilding Plan
 
The 2024 Outlook for Navy Shipbuilding: Familiar Plans and Higher Costs
The 2024 Outlook for Navy Shipbuilding: Familiar Plans and Higher CostsThe 2024 Outlook for Navy Shipbuilding: Familiar Plans and Higher Costs
The 2024 Outlook for Navy Shipbuilding: Familiar Plans and Higher Costs
 
CBO’s Use of GitHub
CBO’s Use of GitHubCBO’s Use of GitHub
CBO’s Use of GitHub
 
Exploring the Effects of Medicaid During Childhood on the Economy and the Budget
Exploring the Effects of Medicaid During Childhood on the Economy and the BudgetExploring the Effects of Medicaid During Childhood on the Economy and the Budget
Exploring the Effects of Medicaid During Childhood on the Economy and the Budget
 
Atlas of Military Compensation
Atlas of Military CompensationAtlas of Military Compensation
Atlas of Military Compensation
 
Approaches to Estimating the Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment
 Approaches to Estimating the Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment Approaches to Estimating the Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment
Approaches to Estimating the Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment
 
CBO’s Analysis of the Long-Term Budgetary Outlook
CBO’s Analysis of the Long-Term Budgetary OutlookCBO’s Analysis of the Long-Term Budgetary Outlook
CBO’s Analysis of the Long-Term Budgetary Outlook
 
Projecting the Effects of U.S. Federal Policies on Electric Vehicle Demand an...
Projecting the Effects of U.S. Federal Policies on Electric Vehicle Demand an...Projecting the Effects of U.S. Federal Policies on Electric Vehicle Demand an...
Projecting the Effects of U.S. Federal Policies on Electric Vehicle Demand an...
 
CBO’s Recent Appeals for New Research to Enhance Its Work for the Congress
CBO’s Recent Appeals for New Research to Enhance Its Work for the CongressCBO’s Recent Appeals for New Research to Enhance Its Work for the Congress
CBO’s Recent Appeals for New Research to Enhance Its Work for the Congress
 
Trends in the Distribution of Household Income From 1979 to 2020
Trends in the Distribution of Household Income From 1979 to 2020Trends in the Distribution of Household Income From 1979 to 2020
Trends in the Distribution of Household Income From 1979 to 2020
 
The Federal Budget Process and the Role of the Congressional Budget Office
The Federal Budget Process and the Role of the Congressional Budget OfficeThe Federal Budget Process and the Role of the Congressional Budget Office
The Federal Budget Process and the Role of the Congressional Budget Office
 
How CBO Projects Corporate Income Tax Revenues
How CBO Projects Corporate Income Tax RevenuesHow CBO Projects Corporate Income Tax Revenues
How CBO Projects Corporate Income Tax Revenues
 
The Federal Budget Process and the Role of the Congressional Budget Office
The Federal Budget Process and the Role of the Congressional Budget OfficeThe Federal Budget Process and the Role of the Congressional Budget Office
The Federal Budget Process and the Role of the Congressional Budget Office
 
The U.S. Economic Outlook
The U.S. Economic OutlookThe U.S. Economic Outlook
The U.S. Economic Outlook
 

Recently uploaded

Focusing on the rights of women and girls
Focusing on the rights of women and girlsFocusing on the rights of women and girls
Focusing on the rights of women and girlsChristina Parmionova
 
ISEIDP in Chikkaballapura, Karnataka, India
ISEIDP in Chikkaballapura, Karnataka, IndiaISEIDP in Chikkaballapura, Karnataka, India
ISEIDP in Chikkaballapura, Karnataka, IndiaTrinity Care Foundation
 
2024: The FAR, Federal Acquisition Regulations - Part 23
2024: The FAR, Federal Acquisition Regulations - Part 232024: The FAR, Federal Acquisition Regulations - Part 23
2024: The FAR, Federal Acquisition Regulations - Part 23JSchaus & Associates
 
1- Phase 8 Hope For Venezuelan Refugees Soup Program-Periods 4-6.pdf
1- Phase 8 Hope For Venezuelan Refugees Soup Program-Periods 4-6.pdf1- Phase 8 Hope For Venezuelan Refugees Soup Program-Periods 4-6.pdf
1- Phase 8 Hope For Venezuelan Refugees Soup Program-Periods 4-6.pdfCristal Montañéz
 
2023 Barangay Officials pre assumption PPT.pptx
2023 Barangay Officials pre assumption PPT.pptx2023 Barangay Officials pre assumption PPT.pptx
2023 Barangay Officials pre assumption PPT.pptxMariaFionaDuranMerqu
 
Madison Cat Project Foster Training - Lesson 1
Madison Cat Project Foster Training - Lesson 1Madison Cat Project Foster Training - Lesson 1
Madison Cat Project Foster Training - Lesson 1KelleyWasmund
 
PPT Item # 7 - Demolition & Replacement Structure Processes
PPT Item # 7 - Demolition & Replacement Structure ProcessesPPT Item # 7 - Demolition & Replacement Structure Processes
PPT Item # 7 - Demolition & Replacement Structure Processesahcitycouncil
 
April 7th - World Health Day 2024 - My Health. My Right.
April 7th - World Health Day 2024 - My Health. My Right.April 7th - World Health Day 2024 - My Health. My Right.
April 7th - World Health Day 2024 - My Health. My Right.Christina Parmionova
 
Digital Transformation of the Heritage Sector and its Practical Implications
Digital Transformation of the Heritage Sector and its Practical ImplicationsDigital Transformation of the Heritage Sector and its Practical Implications
Digital Transformation of the Heritage Sector and its Practical ImplicationsBeat Estermann
 
World Health Day 2024 - Zero Discrimination, Affordable treatments, Respectfu...
World Health Day 2024 - Zero Discrimination, Affordable treatments, Respectfu...World Health Day 2024 - Zero Discrimination, Affordable treatments, Respectfu...
World Health Day 2024 - Zero Discrimination, Affordable treatments, Respectfu...Christina Parmionova
 
Everyone, everywhere has the right to good mental health.
Everyone, everywhere has the right to good mental health.Everyone, everywhere has the right to good mental health.
Everyone, everywhere has the right to good mental health.Christina Parmionova
 
PPT Item # 6 - TBG Partners Landscape Architectural Design Services.pdf
PPT Item # 6 - TBG Partners Landscape Architectural Design Services.pdfPPT Item # 6 - TBG Partners Landscape Architectural Design Services.pdf
PPT Item # 6 - TBG Partners Landscape Architectural Design Services.pdfahcitycouncil
 
2nd edition of the Australian Charter of Healthcare Rights.
2nd edition of the Australian Charter of Healthcare Rights.2nd edition of the Australian Charter of Healthcare Rights.
2nd edition of the Australian Charter of Healthcare Rights.Christina Parmionova
 
Item # 1a --- March 25, 2024 CCM Minutes
Item # 1a --- March 25, 2024 CCM MinutesItem # 1a --- March 25, 2024 CCM Minutes
Item # 1a --- March 25, 2024 CCM Minutesahcitycouncil
 
Youth shaping sustainable and innovative solution - Reinforcing the 2030 agen...
Youth shaping sustainable and innovative solution - Reinforcing the 2030 agen...Youth shaping sustainable and innovative solution - Reinforcing the 2030 agen...
Youth shaping sustainable and innovative solution - Reinforcing the 2030 agen...Christina Parmionova
 
Pope Francis Teaching: Dignitas Infinita- On Human Dignity
Pope Francis Teaching: Dignitas Infinita- On Human DignityPope Francis Teaching: Dignitas Infinita- On Human Dignity
Pope Francis Teaching: Dignitas Infinita- On Human DignityEnergy for One World
 
World Health Day theme 2024 is 'My health, my right’.
World Health Day theme 2024 is 'My health, my right’.World Health Day theme 2024 is 'My health, my right’.
World Health Day theme 2024 is 'My health, my right’.Christina Parmionova
 
ECOSOC YOUTH FORUM 2024 - Side Events Schedule -16 April.
ECOSOC YOUTH FORUM 2024 - Side Events Schedule -16 April.ECOSOC YOUTH FORUM 2024 - Side Events Schedule -16 April.
ECOSOC YOUTH FORUM 2024 - Side Events Schedule -16 April.Christina Parmionova
 
Get the World Health Day 2024 action toolkit!
Get the World Health Day 2024  action toolkit!Get the World Health Day 2024  action toolkit!
Get the World Health Day 2024 action toolkit!Christina Parmionova
 

Recently uploaded (20)

Focusing on the rights of women and girls
Focusing on the rights of women and girlsFocusing on the rights of women and girls
Focusing on the rights of women and girls
 
ISEIDP in Chikkaballapura, Karnataka, India
ISEIDP in Chikkaballapura, Karnataka, IndiaISEIDP in Chikkaballapura, Karnataka, India
ISEIDP in Chikkaballapura, Karnataka, India
 
2024: The FAR, Federal Acquisition Regulations - Part 23
2024: The FAR, Federal Acquisition Regulations - Part 232024: The FAR, Federal Acquisition Regulations - Part 23
2024: The FAR, Federal Acquisition Regulations - Part 23
 
1- Phase 8 Hope For Venezuelan Refugees Soup Program-Periods 4-6.pdf
1- Phase 8 Hope For Venezuelan Refugees Soup Program-Periods 4-6.pdf1- Phase 8 Hope For Venezuelan Refugees Soup Program-Periods 4-6.pdf
1- Phase 8 Hope For Venezuelan Refugees Soup Program-Periods 4-6.pdf
 
2023 Barangay Officials pre assumption PPT.pptx
2023 Barangay Officials pre assumption PPT.pptx2023 Barangay Officials pre assumption PPT.pptx
2023 Barangay Officials pre assumption PPT.pptx
 
Madison Cat Project Foster Training - Lesson 1
Madison Cat Project Foster Training - Lesson 1Madison Cat Project Foster Training - Lesson 1
Madison Cat Project Foster Training - Lesson 1
 
PPT Item # 7 - Demolition & Replacement Structure Processes
PPT Item # 7 - Demolition & Replacement Structure ProcessesPPT Item # 7 - Demolition & Replacement Structure Processes
PPT Item # 7 - Demolition & Replacement Structure Processes
 
April 7th - World Health Day 2024 - My Health. My Right.
April 7th - World Health Day 2024 - My Health. My Right.April 7th - World Health Day 2024 - My Health. My Right.
April 7th - World Health Day 2024 - My Health. My Right.
 
Digital Transformation of the Heritage Sector and its Practical Implications
Digital Transformation of the Heritage Sector and its Practical ImplicationsDigital Transformation of the Heritage Sector and its Practical Implications
Digital Transformation of the Heritage Sector and its Practical Implications
 
Housing For All - Fair Housing Choice Report
Housing For All - Fair Housing Choice ReportHousing For All - Fair Housing Choice Report
Housing For All - Fair Housing Choice Report
 
World Health Day 2024 - Zero Discrimination, Affordable treatments, Respectfu...
World Health Day 2024 - Zero Discrimination, Affordable treatments, Respectfu...World Health Day 2024 - Zero Discrimination, Affordable treatments, Respectfu...
World Health Day 2024 - Zero Discrimination, Affordable treatments, Respectfu...
 
Everyone, everywhere has the right to good mental health.
Everyone, everywhere has the right to good mental health.Everyone, everywhere has the right to good mental health.
Everyone, everywhere has the right to good mental health.
 
PPT Item # 6 - TBG Partners Landscape Architectural Design Services.pdf
PPT Item # 6 - TBG Partners Landscape Architectural Design Services.pdfPPT Item # 6 - TBG Partners Landscape Architectural Design Services.pdf
PPT Item # 6 - TBG Partners Landscape Architectural Design Services.pdf
 
2nd edition of the Australian Charter of Healthcare Rights.
2nd edition of the Australian Charter of Healthcare Rights.2nd edition of the Australian Charter of Healthcare Rights.
2nd edition of the Australian Charter of Healthcare Rights.
 
Item # 1a --- March 25, 2024 CCM Minutes
Item # 1a --- March 25, 2024 CCM MinutesItem # 1a --- March 25, 2024 CCM Minutes
Item # 1a --- March 25, 2024 CCM Minutes
 
Youth shaping sustainable and innovative solution - Reinforcing the 2030 agen...
Youth shaping sustainable and innovative solution - Reinforcing the 2030 agen...Youth shaping sustainable and innovative solution - Reinforcing the 2030 agen...
Youth shaping sustainable and innovative solution - Reinforcing the 2030 agen...
 
Pope Francis Teaching: Dignitas Infinita- On Human Dignity
Pope Francis Teaching: Dignitas Infinita- On Human DignityPope Francis Teaching: Dignitas Infinita- On Human Dignity
Pope Francis Teaching: Dignitas Infinita- On Human Dignity
 
World Health Day theme 2024 is 'My health, my right’.
World Health Day theme 2024 is 'My health, my right’.World Health Day theme 2024 is 'My health, my right’.
World Health Day theme 2024 is 'My health, my right’.
 
ECOSOC YOUTH FORUM 2024 - Side Events Schedule -16 April.
ECOSOC YOUTH FORUM 2024 - Side Events Schedule -16 April.ECOSOC YOUTH FORUM 2024 - Side Events Schedule -16 April.
ECOSOC YOUTH FORUM 2024 - Side Events Schedule -16 April.
 
Get the World Health Day 2024 action toolkit!
Get the World Health Day 2024  action toolkit!Get the World Health Day 2024  action toolkit!
Get the World Health Day 2024 action toolkit!
 

The Budget: Health Care, Energy, and Telecommunications

  • 1. Presentation to the Republican Members of the House Energy and Commerce Committee February 27, 2023 Phillip L. Swagel Director The Budget: Health Care, Energy, and Telecommunications For further discussion of the projections in this presentation, see Congressional Budget Office, The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2023 to 2033 (February 2023), www.cbo.gov/publication/58848.
  • 2. 1 CBO was established to give the Congress a stronger role in budget matters. The agency conducts objective and impartial analysis of budgetary and economic issues. It provides budget and economic projections, cost estimates, analytic reports, and other materials on a variety of topics. As a strictly nonpartisan agency, CBO makes no policy recommendations and carries out its mission with integrity. In carrying out its mission, CBO follows processes that are specified in statute or developed by the agency with the budget committees and Congressional leadership. CBO’s chief responsibility under the Budget Act is to help the budget committees with the matters under their jurisdiction. CBO’s Role
  • 4. 3 Years are fiscal years. Total Deficits, Primary Deficits, and Net Interest Outlays In CBO’s projections, net interest outlays increase by 1.2 percent of GDP from 2023 to 2033 and are a major contributor to the growth of total deficits. Primary deficits increase by 0.4 percent of GDP over that period.
  • 5. 4 Years are fiscal years. Changes in CBO’s Baseline Projections of the 10-Year Deficit Since May 2022 The cumulative deficit over the 2023–2032 period is $3.1 trillion larger in CBO’s current baseline projections than it was in the agency’s May 2022 projections, mainly because of newly enacted legislation and changes to the economic forecast that boost projected net interest outlays and spending on mandatory programs, such as Social Security.
  • 6. 5 Years are fiscal years. Federal Debt Held by the Public Federal debt held by the public is projected to increase in each year of the projection period and to reach 118 percent of GDP in 2033—higher than it has ever been. In the two decades that follow, growing deficits are projected to push federal debt higher still, to 195 percent of GDP in 2053.
  • 8. 7 Years are calendar years. Shaded vertical bars indicate periods of recession. Interest Rates In CBO’s projections, the Federal Reserve further increases the target range for the federal funds rate in early 2023 to reduce inflationary pressures in the economy. That rate is projected to fall in 2024, as inflation slows and unemployment rises. The interest rate on 10-year Treasury notes, however, remains at 3.8 percent from 2024 to the end of the projection period.
  • 9. 8 Years are calendar years. Shaded vertical bars indicate periods of recession. Core inflation excludes food and energy prices. Inflation In CBO’s projections, inflation declines in 2023 as pressures ease from factors that, since mid-2020, have caused demand to grow more rapidly than supply. That decline continues until 2027, when the rate of inflation reaches the Federal Reserve’s long-run goal. (Inflation is measured by the price index for personal consumption expenditures.)
  • 10. 9 Years are calendar years. Shaded vertical bars indicate periods of recession. Growth of Real GDP In CBO’s projections, output growth comes to a halt in 2023 in response to the sharp rise in interest rates during 2022. Then, as falling inflation allows the Federal Reserve to reduce the target range for the federal funds rate, the growth of real GDP rebounds, led by the interest-sensitive sectors of the economy.
  • 11. 10 Health Care in the Budget
  • 12. 11 Percentage of Gross Domestic Product Social Security Other Mandatory Discretionary Net Interest Major Health Care Programs 2053 2043 2033 2023 2013 2053 2043 2033 2023 2013 2053 2043 2033 2023 2013 0 10 20 30 40 0 10 20 30 40 Projected Total Outlays Years are fiscal years. Total outlays include mandatory and discretionary spending. ACA = Affordable Care Act. The Extent to Which Health Programs Drive Spending, Specifically Mandatory Spending CBO prepares a budget baseline that serves as a benchmark for measuring the effects of proposed legislation affecting spending. As part of its analysis of mandatory spending, CBO estimates health insurance coverage and projected spending on health care programs, including federal subsidies, Medicare, and Medicaid. Subsidies include premium tax credits for policies in the ACA marketplaces and the tax subsidy for employment- based health insurance.
  • 13. 12 Projected 0 2 4 6 8 10 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 2048 2053 Medicaid, CHIP, and Marketplace Subsidies Medicare Percentage of Gross Domestic Product Years are fiscal years (FY). CHIP = Children’s Health Insurance Program Projected Federal Outlays for Major Health Care Programs Projections for Major Health Care Programs for FY 2023 Billions of Dollars Medicare 820 Medicaid 589 Marketplace Subsidies 81 Children’s Health Insurance Program 18
  • 14. 13 Years are fiscal years. Certain spending that falls within budget functions 550 (Health) and 570 (Medicare) is under the committee’s jurisdiction. Projected mandatory spending for function 550 totals $760 billion in 2023 and $9.1 trillion over the 2023–2033 period. Projected discretionary spending for function 550 totals $110 billion in 2023 and $1.2 trillion over the 2023–2033 period, if appropriations grow with inflation. Projected spending for function 570 totals $820 billion in 2023 and $13.1 trillion over the 2023–2033 period, almost all of which is mandatory. Projected Spending Within the Budget Functions of Health Care
  • 15. 14 Health and Human Services § Medicare ($820 billion) § Medicaid ($589 billion) § Affordable Care Act’s premium tax credits and related spending ($81 billion) § Children’s Health Insurance Program ($18 billion) § National Institutes of Health ($43 billion) § Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ($15 billion) § Health Resources and Services Administration ($15 billion) § Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration ($8 billion) Projected Federal Spending on Major Components of Health Care Spending in Fiscal Year 2023
  • 16. 15 See Table 1 in Congressional Budget Office, Options for Reducing the Deficit, 2023 to 2032—Volume I: Larger Reductions (December 2022), www.cbo.gov/publication/58164. Options for Larger Spending Reductions for Fiscal Years 2023 to 2032 That Relate to Health Care
  • 18. 17 Years are fiscal years. Certain spending within budget function 270 (energy) and subfunction 304 (pollution control and abatement) is under the committee’s jurisdiction. Projected mandatory spending for function 270 totals (net of offsetting receipts) about -$7 billion in 2023 and $24 billion over the 2023–2033 period, mostly from sales of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and funding provided through Public Law 117-169 (the 2022 reconciliation act). Projected discretionary spending for function 270 totals $9 billion in 2023 and $235 billion over the 2023–2033 period (as inflated in CBO’s February 2023 baseline). Projected mandatory spending for subfunction 304 totals $1 billion in 2023 and $48 billion over the 2023–2033 period. Projected discretionary spending for subfunction 304 totals $14 billion in 2023 and $280 billion over the 2023–2033 period (as inflated in CBO’s February 2023 baseline). Selected Spending Within the Budget Functions of Energy and the Environment
  • 19. 18 Department Of Energy (DOE) § Grants for industrial facilities, grid resiliency, battery manufacturing, regional hub programs, Civil Nuclear Credit Program, Weatherization Assistance Program § Rebates for residential energy efficiency § Loans under the Title XVII loan guarantee program, the Advanced Technology Vehicles Manufacturing loan program, and the Transmission Facility Financing program § Strategic Petroleum Reserve Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) § Grants for reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, environmental and climate justice initiatives, and state and tribal assistance § Revenues from the Methane Emissions Reduction Program DOE and EPA both received large increases in funding through the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (roughly $120 billion) and the 2022 reconciliation act (roughly $75 billion). The Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2023 provided about $20 billion in discretionary funding for programs in function 270 and subfunction 304. Major Energy and Environment Programs, by Agency
  • 21. 20 Federal Communications Commission (FCC) § Universal Service Fund § Affordable Connectivity Program § Spectrum auctions National Telecommunications and Information Administration § Broadband Equity, Access, and Deployment Program Select Programs in Telecommunications
  • 22. 21 Spectrum auction background § The right to use the electromagnetic spectrum is regulated by the FCC. § The FCC uses competitive auctions when it awards licenses to use the spectrum. § The FCC’s authority to conduct auctions expires on March 9, 2023. However, the agency is authorized to conduct two specific auctions after 2023 for the purposes of making certain frequencies currently used by federal agencies available for commercial use. Budgetary effects of spectrum auctions § Under current law, proceeds from FCC auctions are deposited in the Treasury as offsetting receipts, but those proceeds may be spent for two purposes: – To cover the FCC’s auction expenses (scored as increases in direct spending), and – To cover the costs to relocate incumbent federal systems (scored as increases in direct spending). § Winning bidders pay for their licenses at the conclusion of each auction, but their payments are not recorded in the budget until the FCC issues licenses. § CBO’s baseline projections reflect the duration and scope of the FCC’s auction authority under current law. Budgetary Effects of Spectrum Auctions