DSD-INT 2019 Critical Infrastructure - consequences and relations for life and environment - Tijssen
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Presentation by Annegien Tijssen, Deltares, at the Delft3D - User Days (Day 1: Hydrology and hydrodynamics), during Delft Software Days - Edition 2019. Monday, 11 November 2019, Delft.
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From Awareness to Action Accounting for InfrastructureInter
From Awareness to Action: Accounting for Infrastructure
Interdependencies in Disaster Response and
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Anu Narayanan1 , Melissa Finucane1, Joie Acosta1, and Amanda Wicker1
1RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA, USA
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infrastructure system interdependencies and their implications for disaster response, recovery, and
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contexts and highlight limitations to existing approaches. Suggestions for understanding and addressing
interdependencies focus on increasing availability of tools for assessing interdependencies and increasing
stakeholder and decisionmaker uptake of infrastructure interdependency‐related information in planning
efforts.
Plain Language Summary Interdependent physical and social systems offer enormous benefits
for daily life because they produce and distribute essential goods and services that are necessary for health,
safety, and economic well‐being. For instance, the power grid is required for effective functioning of
information systems and cell phones, which underpin effective functioning of hospitals, water and sewer
systems, traffic lights, and home appliances. In return, communications and information technology is
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linking failures in interdependent systems to measurable social impacts including: limited availability of
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experts working together on this inherently cross‐disciplinary problem, and diversity in infrastructure
systems, disruptive events, and communities. We suggest that awareness of the vulnerabilities in
interdependent infrastructure systems needs to be coupled with coordinated action and collaboration among
government agencies, communities, and industries.
1. Introduction
Some of the worst disasters in recent memory are the outcomes of low‐probability, high‐consequence events
that have brought with them failures of interdependent infrastructure systems (Alexander, 2018). By “infra-
structure,” we mean not just physical assets (e.g., the power grid, water and wastewater systems, and telecom-
munications networks) but also social systems that play a key role in human health, safety, and well‐being
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structure systems are susceptible to a wide array of shocks (typically abrupt) and stressors (typically slow,
with cumulative effects). In addition to natural disasters, shocks can also include ...
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From Awareness to Action Accounting for InfrastructureInter
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Interdependencies in Disaster Response and
Recovery Planning
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1RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA, USA
Abstract This paper highlights challenges and open questions pertaining to physical and social
infrastructure system interdependencies and their implications for disaster response, recovery, and
resilience planning efforts. We describe the importance of understanding interdependencies in disaster
contexts and highlight limitations to existing approaches. Suggestions for understanding and addressing
interdependencies focus on increasing availability of tools for assessing interdependencies and increasing
stakeholder and decisionmaker uptake of infrastructure interdependency‐related information in planning
efforts.
Plain Language Summary Interdependent physical and social systems offer enormous benefits
for daily life because they produce and distribute essential goods and services that are necessary for health,
safety, and economic well‐being. For instance, the power grid is required for effective functioning of
information systems and cell phones, which underpin effective functioning of hospitals, water and sewer
systems, traffic lights, and home appliances. In return, communications and information technology is
required for effective functioning of the power grid, especially to meet the concurrent demands for reliable
energy supply, protection, and automation. In this paper, we describe how failure in interdependent
systems can be catastrophic and lead to death and prolonged human suffering. We examine difficulties in
linking failures in interdependent systems to measurable social impacts including: limited availability of
data and models, disciplinary silos that might stand in the way of different stakeholders, practitioners, and
experts working together on this inherently cross‐disciplinary problem, and diversity in infrastructure
systems, disruptive events, and communities. We suggest that awareness of the vulnerabilities in
interdependent infrastructure systems needs to be coupled with coordinated action and collaboration among
government agencies, communities, and industries.
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Some of the worst disasters in recent memory are the outcomes of low‐probability, high‐consequence events
that have brought with them failures of interdependent infrastructure systems (Alexander, 2018). By “infra-
structure,” we mean not just physical assets (e.g., the power grid, water and wastewater systems, and telecom-
munications networks) but also social systems that play a key role in human health, safety, and well‐being
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structure systems are susceptible to a wide array of shocks (typically abrupt) and stressors (typically slow,
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Copyrighted Material 1 Shrink the Targets Disasters .docx
Copyrighted Material
1 Shrink the Targets
Disasters from natural sources, from industrial and technolog
ical sources, and from deliberate sources such as terrorism have all
increased in the United States in recent decades, and no diminution
is in sight.1 Weather disturbances are predicted to increase; low-
level industrial accidents continue but threaten to intensify and the
threat of cyber attacks on our “critical infrastructure” becomes ever
more credible; foreign terrorists have not relaxed and we anxiously
await another attack. Cataclysmic fantasies proliferate on movie
screens and DVDs, and scholars write books with “collapse,” “ca
tastrophe,” “our final hour,” and “worst cases” in their titles.
But we have neglected a fundamental response to the trio of dis
aster sources. Instead of focusing only on preventing disasters and
coping with their aftermath—which we must continue to do—we
should reduce the size of vulnerable targets. Weapons of mass de
1The evidence for the increase in industrial disasters comes from the Swiss rein
surance firm, the world’s largest, Swiss Re. The worldwide figures can be found in
its Sigma reports. (Swiss Re 2002) “Man-made disasters” include road and ship
ping accidents, major fires, and aerospace incidents, and the threshold for qualify
ing is 20 deaths, or 50 injured, or 2,000 homeless, or $70 billion in losses, or in
surances losses ranging from $143 million for shipping, $28 billion for aerospace
to $35 billion for the rest. Similar criteria are applied to natural disasters. For man-
made disasters in the United States, the period from 1970 to 1992 averaged 7.7;
2
Copyrighted Material
_ C H A P T E R 1
struction (WMDs) already litter our landscape; terrorists need not
sneak them in, and they are more likely to be triggered by natural
and industrial disasters than by terrorists. Ninety-ton tank cars of
chlorine gas are WMDs that travel daily through our cities; dis
persing the deadly gas via a tornado or hurricane, an industrial ac
cident, or a terrorist’s suitcase bomb would endanger up to seven
million people. New Orleans and its surroundings is, or was, our
largest port, but it could have been a target one-third the size of its
pre-Katrina population of some 450,000 souls, and much easier to
defend and evacuate. Because of the increased concentration of the
electric power industry, our vital electric power grid is so poorly
managed that sagging power lines hitting tree branches in Ohio
plunged the Northeast into darkness for hours and even days in
some areas in 2003. The industry has made its grid a better target
for a heat spell, a flood, a hurricane, or a few well-placed small
bombs. Deconcentrating the industry would uncouple the vulner
abilities and barely decrease efficiency, as we shall see.
Not all of the dangers confronting us can be reduced through
downsizing our targets. Some natural hazards we just have to face:
we are unlikely to sto.
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is in sight.1 Weather disturbances are predicted to increase; low-
level industrial accidents continue but threaten to intensify and the
threat of cyber attacks on our “critical infrastructure” becomes ever
more credible; foreign terrorists have not relaxed and we anxiously
await another attack. Cataclysmic fantasies proliferate on movie
screens and DVDs, and scholars write books with “collapse,” “ca
tastrophe,” “our final hour,” and “worst cases” in their titles.
But we have neglected a fundamental response to the trio of dis
aster sources. Instead of focusing only on preventing disasters and
coping with their aftermath—which we must continue to do—we
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1The evidence for the increase in industrial disasters comes from the Swiss rein
surance firm, the world’s largest, Swiss Re. The worldwide figures can be found in
its Sigma reports. (Swiss Re 2002) “Man-made disasters” include road and ship
ping accidents, major fires, and aerospace incidents, and the threshold for qualify
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to $35 billion for the rest. Similar criteria are applied to natural disasters. For man-
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2
Copyrighted Material
_ C H A P T E R 1
struction (WMDs) already litter our landscape; terrorists need not
sneak them in, and they are more likely to be triggered by natural
and industrial disasters than by terrorists. Ninety-ton tank cars of
chlorine gas are WMDs that travel daily through our cities; dis
persing the deadly gas via a tornado or hurricane, an industrial ac
cident, or a terrorist’s suitcase bomb would endanger up to seven
million people. New Orleans and its surroundings is, or was, our
largest port, but it could have been a target one-third the size of its
pre-Katrina population of some 450,000 souls, and much easier to
defend and evacuate. Because of the increased concentration of the
electric power industry, our vital electric power grid is so poorly
managed that sagging power lines hitting tree branches in Ohio
plunged the Northeast into darkness for hours and even days in
some areas in 2003. The industry has made its grid a better target
for a heat spell, a flood, a hurricane, or a few well-placed small
bombs. Deconcentrating the industry would uncouple the vulner
abilities and barely decrease efficiency, as we shall see.
Not all of the dangers confronting us can be reduced through
downsizing our targets. Some natural hazards we just have to face:
we are unlikely to sto.
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- Over one-third of respondents said they would require assistance during a flood.
- Preparedness levels were low, with under half having flood insurance and only 11% having a flood emergency plan.
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New high and dry n staffs
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- 1. CIrcle Critical Infrastructure: consequences and relations for life and environment Annegien Tijssen, et al. Delft3D User Days 2019
- 2. 11/12/2019 3 Blackout in Italy National Blackout in 2003
- 3. Blackout in Manhattan Hurricane Sandy (October 2012) Source: Wikipedia Commons – User Hybirdd
- 4. “The nation's critical infrastructure provides the essential services that underpin American society and serve as the backbone of our nation's economy, security, and health. We know it as the power we use in our homes, the water we drink, the transportation that moves us, the stores we shop in, and the communication systems we rely on to stay in touch with friends and family.” Source: Department of Homeland Security – What Is Critical Infrastructure? Available at https://www.dhs.gov/what-critical-infrastructure Critical Infrastructures The Definition
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- 10. Cascading effects – Fort Lauderdale 11/12/2019 14
- 11. The CIrcle framework 1. Gather (OpenStreetMap) data on CI and vulnerable objects (QuickScan) 2. Gather expert knowledge on direct impacts and dependencies (CIrcle Workshop) 3. Combine data with expert knowledge to conduct cascading effect analyses (CI Analysis) 4. Complement (flood) risk assessments with gained insights on indirect effects 5. Implement measures to increase resilience in our 3D serious gaming engine 6. Collect knowledge from CIrcle workshops in the Knowledge Database for better understanding of cascading effects 7. Train other parties to use CIrcle (Train-the-Trainer)
- 12. Case Studies and external initiatives
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- 14. Further information • CIrcle website www.deltares.nl/circle • more information • case studies • Youtube: Deltaresfilm – CIrcle • CIrcle Concept in 2 minutes • Videos about case studies • Cork (IE) • Amsterdam (NL) • IJssel-Vecht (NL) • Email: circle@deltares.nl annegien.tijssen@deltares.nl