This document provides an outline for a course on the impacts of climate change on critical infrastructure. It begins by defining critical infrastructure and describing key sectors like energy, water, transportation, and chemicals. It then discusses how infrastructure systems are interconnected and vulnerable to failures that can cascade between sectors. The document outlines several ways that climate change may negatively impact critical infrastructure through increased temperatures, sea level rise, flooding, and other extreme weather events. Specific risks are described for electricity networks, oil and gas facilities, chemical plants, water infrastructure, and transportation assets. The goal of the course is to explain how climate change threatens critical services and economic well-being.

1. EU CIRCLE
Impacts of climate
change to Critical
Infrastructure

2. Course Outline
 What is Critical Infrastructure?
 Critical Infrastructure Interdependencies
 Impacts of climate change to Critical Infrastructure
 Energy
 Chemical Industry
 Water and wastewater
 Transportation
 Public sector
 ICT

3. Course Objectives
By the end of the module, you will be able to:
1. Define critical infrastructure
2. Understand critical infrastructure
interdependencies
3. Describe some of the potential impacts of
climate change to critical infrastructures

4. What is Critical Infrastructure?
o Critical infrastructures are those physical and
information technology facilities, networks,
services and assets which, if disrupted or
destroyed, would have a serious impact on
the health, safety, security or economic well-
being of citizens or the effective functioning
of governments in European Union (EU)
countries.
European Commission, 2004
4
 They are large scale, man-made, physical
structures or systems necessary for the
operation of a society or an organisation
e.g. buildings, roads, energy etc.

5. What is Critical Infrastructure?
 Criticality is assessed using different criteria
 In the EU an infrastructure is characterised critical based on the following
criteria:
a) casualties criterion (assessed in terms of the potential number of fatalities or
injuries);
b) economic effects criterion (assessed in terms of the significance of economic
loss and/or degradation of products or services; including potential
environmental effects);
c) public effects criterion (assessed in terms of the impact on public confidence,
physical suffering and disruption of daily life; including the loss of essential
services). 5

6. What is Critical Infrastructure?
Includes sectors such as:
 Energy,
 Transport,
 Information and Communications Technology,
 Water and Wastewater,
 Chemical Industry,
 Public Services e.g. Emergency and Health Services etc. 6

7. Why is Critical Infrastructure important?
 CI are complex systems with many parts interacting as a network and can be
composed of millions of links and nodes
 Various different CI systems are interconnected and interdependent with one another
 Many CIs cross national borders and can spread across continents and around the
globe e.g. electricity networks and ICT networks (internet)
 A fault in one CI can therefore result in cascading effects to other CIs- even across
borders
7

8. CI Interdependencies
Dependency:
o is a uni-directional linkage or connection
between two assets belonging to the same or
different infrastructure (sub)sectors, through
which the ability of one infrastructure to
provide a service is dependent on the
operation of the other infrastructure but not
vice versa.
o For example, infrastructure asset A1 depends
on B1, but B1 does not depend on A1 to
sustain its service level.

9. CI Interdependencies
Interdependency:
o is a bidirectional relationship between two
infrastructures through which each
infrastructure mutually influences or is
associated to the other.
o More generally, two infrastructures are
interdependent when each is dependent on
the other, for example, infrastructure asset A1
depends upon D1 and D1 depends on A1.

10. Types of CI Interdependencies
Physical (inter)dependency:
o A physical (inter)dependency arises from a
physical linkage between the inputs and
outputs of two infrastructures.
o For example, if B1 is an electricity asset and A1
belongs to a water network, then a physical
type of link exists if A1 requires electricity
(from B1) to operate.

11. Types of CI Interdependencies
Cyber (inter)dependency:
 An infrastructure has a cyber
(inter)dependency if its state depends on
information transmitted through the
information (ICT) infrastructure.

12. Types of CI Interdependencies
Geographic (inter)dependency:
o A geographic (inter)dependency occurs when
assets of multiple infrastructures are in close
spatial proximity.
o An example of a geographical
(inter)dependency may arise if. e.g., a water
pipe breaks causing flooding that impacts the
assets of the same sector or other CI sectors
in the vicinity of the pipe.
o An event (e.g., the disruption of Asset A1) can
create changes in the operational state of
Assets B1 and C1 if they are located in spatial
proximity (periphery) of Asset A1, thus
establishing an ad hoc geographic
interdependency.

13. Types of CI Interdependencies
Logical (inter)dependency:
o Two infrastructures are logically
interdependent if the state of each depends
on the state of the other via a mechanism
that is not a physical, cyber, or geographic
connection.
o Logical interdependency is attributable to
human decisions and actions.

14. CI Interdependencies
An illustration of infrastructure
interdependencies

15. CI
Interdependencies
An illustration of infrastructure
interdependencies

16. Impacts of climate
change to CI
Source: IPCC, 2014: Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working
Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri
and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 151 pp.

17. Climate Change Impacts to CIs
 Climate related hazards have the potential to
substantially affect the lifespan and effectiveness or
even destroy Critical Infrastructures (CI)
 According to the IPCC the social, technological &
environmental interconnectedness of the world mean
that the impacts created by Climate Change can
propagate and create cascading stresses
Overview of climate related impacts on infrastructures

18. World Economic Forum – Global risks
2017
 Failure of critical infrastructure, extreme
weather events and failure of climate change
adaptation have been identified as significant
risks by the World Economic Forum

19. Impacts to the
Energy Sector

20. Energy Critical Infrastructure
 Energy is what powers modern societies
 It provides fuel for electricity, heating, transport and chemical manufacturing
 Energy as a sector is made up of sub-sectors:
 Oil and Gas,
 Coal,
 Electricity, and
 Renewables.

21. Energy Critical Infrastructure
 The energy sector is therefore made up of oil, gas, electricity assets
 These assets are geographically spread and are connected to each other through networks
 There are Intradependencies within the energy sector between its sub-sectors
 There are also interdependencies and dependencies with other sectors

22. Potential Consequences & Impacts on the Energy
Sector
Source: U.S. Energy Sector
Vulnerabilities to Climate Change and
Extreme Weather, US Department of
Energy
Energy Sector Climate Projection Potential Implication
Oil and gas
Exploration and
production
o Decreasing water availability
o Increasing intensity of storm events, sea level rise, and
storm surge
o Impacts on drilling, production, and refining
o Increased risk of physical damage and disruption to
offshore and coastal facilities
Thermoelectric
Power generation
(Coal, natural
gas, nuclear,
geothermal
and solar CSP)
o Increasing air temperatures
o Increasing water temperatures
o Decreasing water availability
o Increasing intensity of storm events, sea level rise, and
storm surge
o Increasing intensity and frequency of flooding
o Reduction in plant efficiencies and available generation
capacity
o Reduction in plant efficiencies and available generation
capacity;
o Increased risk of exceeding thermal discharge limits
o Reduction in available generation capacity; impacts on
coal, natural gas, and nuclear fuel supply chains
o Increased risk of physical damage and disruption to
coastal facilities
Electric grid o Increasing air temperatures
o More frequent and severe wildfires
o Increasing intensity of storm events
o Reduction in transmission efficiency and available
transmission capacity
o Increased risk of physical damage and decreased
transmission capacity
o Increased risk of physical damage

23. Electricity transmission and distribution systems:
 carry less current & operate less efficiently when
ambient air temperatures are higher,
 are at risk of physical damage from more intense &
frequent storm events,
 are at risk of physical damage from more intense &
frequent wildfires.
Potential Consequences & Impacts to
electricity transmission and distribution systems

24. Potential Consequences & Impacts to
electricity transmission and distribution systems
Electricity infrastructure located along
the coast is at risk:
 from sea level rise,
 increasing intensity of storms, and
 higher storm surge & flooding.

25. Recorded impacts of extreme weather on
electricity transmission systems
Snowfall and freezing rain resulting in a partial collapse of the electricity infrastructure
in Slovenia in 2014

26. Recorded impacts of extreme weather on
electricity transmission systems
October 2007:
o The California Independent System
Operator declared an emergency
due to wildfire damage to the
Southwest Power link transmission
system.
o More than two dozen transmission
lines went out of service with
damage to 35 miles of wire and
nearly 80,000 customers in San
Diego losing power, some for
several weeks.

27. Potential Impacts to electricity sub-sector
Source: L.A Bollinger et al., 2013

28. Recorded impacts of extreme weather
on the oil and gas sector
o Extensive Mississippi River flooding May 2011.
o The type of flooding is expected once every 10-
25 yrs, though it has occurred more frequently
restricting Rex Energy’s Operations.

29.  Thermoelectric power generation facilities
are at risk from decreasing water availability
and increasing ambient air and water
temperatures
 These reduce the efficiency of cooling,
increase the likelihood of exceeding water
thermal intake or effluent limits that protect
local ecology
 These effects will vary across regions across
Europe and across the world
Source: http://www.swcarr.arizona.edu/sites/default/files/ACCSWUS_Ch12.pdf
Impacts of extreme weather on the
energy sector

30. Impacts to the
Chemical Sector

31. Chemical Sector
 The facilities that make up the Chemical Sector include:
1. manufacturing plants,
2. transport and distribution systems,
3. storage and warehousing systems
Source: KPMG Analysis and industry
reports, 2012

32. Chemical Sector
 The chemical industry is vulnerable to hydrometeorological disasters (such as flooding, storms
etc.) which can impact on the actual infrastructure of chemical facilities.
 As many chemical facilities store and use significant quantities of hazardous substances,
occurrence of hydrometeorological events can trigger major accidents, with potentially serious
consequences
 This type of major accidents or events are known as Natech events

33. Natechs
 A Natech is a technological disaster triggered by any type of natural disaster.
 The technological disaster can include damage to industrial facilities housing hazardous materials
(hazmat), gas and oil pipelines, and lifeline systems resulting in significant adverse effects to the
health of people, property, and/or the environment.
 Adverse effects are usually a result of the release of hazardous substances that are either
processed or stored on site.
 Large-scale releases may pose serious water, soil and air contamination, as well as extreme fire
and explosion threat

34. Natechs
 Natechs are characterised by several features which highlight their significance against other
types of industrial accidents:
a) multiple hazmat releases may occur simultaneously as more than one chemical site may be affected
throughout the impact zone;
b) safety and mitigation measures may not work properly due to the natural disaster event;
c) emergency response personnel and resources may not be available making containment of the hazmat
release challenging;
d) emergency response to the chemical release may be slowed by the natural disaster,
e) recovery from the natural disaster may be slowed by the hazmat release.

35. Chemical Sector
920 Natech accidents have been recorded internationally over the period 1992 to 201

36. Impacts of Floods on the Chemical Sector
Research on floods and their associated impacts on chemical facilities have identified the following
impacts:
 floods have the potential to cause flotation and the displacement of storage tanks, breaking pipe
connections resulting in hazmat releases
 collisions with debris transported by floodwaters may cause tanks to break resulting in hazmat releases
 Flooding of electrical equipment may cause short-circuiting and power outages, which could result in
the failure of cooling units, pumps and electrically operated safety systems

37.  The chemical sector’s infrastructure is often concentrated along the coast and
riverside ports
 This exposes the sector’s infrastructure to coastal erosion and flooding by sea
level rise, tidal and storm surges
 In such an event accidental discharge due to floods may ensue
 Destruction of storage depots of volatile chemicals and hazardous waste,
leading to loss of containment
 Disruption to utility supplies (water, electricity & gas)
Potential impacts of climate change on
the chemical sector

38. Impacts of heatwaves on the
chemical sector
Heat waves can result in:
 solvent evaporation within warehouses containing sensitive substances;
 the accumulation of inflammable vapours in confined spaces (storage sites);
 and the uncontrolled heating of stored materials; which could trigger a Natech event

39. Impacts to the Water
Sector

40. The Water Sector
 The water sector’s infrastructure consists of all
assets responsible for collecting, treating, and
supplying water to all users and for collecting and
treating wastewater produced by them.
 Water supply assets include infrastructure used to
collect and store raw water, such as reservoirs and
boreholes, and transport raw water to the
treatment plants, such as aqueducts.
 Additionally, water supply assets include
infrastructure for treating raw water and storing
and distributing treated water to the consumers.

41. The Water System
 Water is a critical element of our climate and its
change will profoundly affect the operation of
the water system’s infrastructure.
 More intense extreme events are already being
observed, including heavy rainfall and flooding,
and low flow and drought conditions.
 The rise of temperature will affect the balance
between water supply and demand.

42. Impacts of climate change on the water sector
All Water Resources
- Direct asset flooding causes service failure and asset loss
- Increased storm frequency and power supply flooding increases frequency of power loss, causing
service failure
All Water Treatment
- Direct asset flooding causes service failure and asset loss
- Increased storm frequency increases frequency of power loss, causing service failure
Storage Reservoirs
and Aqueducts
- More intense rainfall events exceed capacity of spillways to deal with increased storm intensity,
causing service failure, customer flooding and asset loss
- Increased soil erosion causes the siltation of dams, causing accelerated asset deterioration and asset
loss
Service Reservoirs
and Water Towers
Direct flooding causes contaminants to enter underground storage tanks increasing drinking water quality
risk
Treated water
pipelines
Direct flooding causes contaminants to enter pipelines, increasing drinking water quality risk
All Site wide Services
- Direct asset flooding cuts access to assets, endangering H&S of site staff
- Direct flooding leads to submersion of electrical assets, increasing risk to operatives of electrocution
endangering H&S of site staff
SCADA & Telemetry Flooding causes loss of SCADA and /or telemetry causing service loss

43. Increased temperatures and decreased precipitation patterns:
o May create drought periods that may result in service failures, in some or all the water uses, since water
availability is reduced.
o A decrease in available water volume results in:
– higher sedimentation rates that create blockages,
– increased risk of external contaminants entering the pipelines, increasing drinking water quality risk,
– lower dilution rates that risk water quality, and
– depressurisation of the distribution network that may lead to service loss due to pipe and pumps
failures.
Impacts of climate change on the water sector

44.  Increased or extreme rainfall may cause flooding events resulting in :
– Flood water infiltration into pipelines increasing drinking water quality risk
– Service failure and asset loss
 Extreme rainfall may also result in:
– Breeching of reservoir dams if their maximum storage elevation is exceeded.
– Exceedance of the capacity of the stormwater network flooding or even destruction of parts of the
stormwater network.
Impacts of climate change on the water sector

45.  Extreme winds may affect tall structures, such as water towers, but may also induce waves that may
potentially risk the stability of dams and other water retention structures.
 Heavy snowfall and extreme cold weather may block access to water infrastructure, may create blockages
and water intake failures due to frozen pipes and pumps.
 Wildfires pose a direct risk to infrastructure mainly because of the sudden need of a bulk volume of water
for firefighting and if the assets are close to the fire or the firefighting activities.
 Wildfires also affect water infrastructure assets indirectly by increasing the volume of nutrients and debris
transported by water and deposited in reservoirs which may reach treatment plants and distribution
networks blocking pipes affecting the lifespan of the assets.
Impacts of climate change on the water sector

46. Impacts to the
Transportation
Sector

47. Transportation
 The transport sector is one of the biggest drives of the globalised world economy.
 Transportation critical infrastructure is required to move both people and goods across a
country and overseas
 Transport as a sector is made up of sub-sectors:
– Road transport,
– Rail transport,
– Aviation,
– Maritime, and
– Inland waterways.
 The rate of mobilisation is expected to increase dramatically.

48. Potential Impacts to Transportation
Sector
Temperature
 The rise of temperature can result in buckling and
deformation of rail tracks or asphalt roads due to
thermal expansions.
 Just small buckles and deformation can cause
derailments or fatal jumps on the motorway.
 Increase in asset wear and tear increasing the
frequency of repairs.
Photo credit Washington County Public
Works

49. Potential Impacts to Transportation Sector
Extreme Precipitation and floods
 Extreme rainfall can cause floods and inundations to transport
infrastructure facilities resulting in damage
 Floods can destroy road lanes completely as the soil
supporting the road softens and breaks, tearing it apart
 Inundation of live conductors in the rail network by floods can
cause short circuits paralysing the energy supply needed for
signalling equipment or the train itself
 Navigation in rivers can be hindered by flooding as high waters
can reduce the space between the ceiling of a bridge and a
ship/barge.
Flooding closes seafront roads after
Storm Emma, Devon UK

50. Impacts to the ICT
Sector

51. ICT Critical Infrastructure
o The Information and Communications Technology (ICT) Sector produces and provides ICT products and
services for governments, other critical infrastructure sectors, commercial businesses, and private
customers
o It is made up of two sub-sectors:
 Information Technologies sub-sector
 Communications sub-sector

52. ICT Critical Infrastructure
o Each sub-sector provides the following critical services :
Critical Sub-sector Critical Service
Information Technologies • Web Services
• Datacentre/cloud services
• Software
Communications • Voice/Data communications
• Wired and Wireless communications
• Internet connectivity
• Satellite Communications
• Radio Communications

53. ICT Critical Infrastructure
• The critical services outlined in previous slides enable the following services in other CI sectors:
 emergency services use ICT to enable management and location-based services for emergency calls;
 in transportation ICT is required in air traffic control, train routing and control, traffic management;
 financial services use ICT in credit card transactions, transaction records, electronic stock/bond trading;
 control systems/SCADA are used to manage energy production & distribution, chemical
manufacturing and refining processes

54.  Elements of infrastructure which are below ground are vulnerable to flooding, rising water tables, water
ingress, subsidence caused by drought or flooding
 Elements that located above the ground such as masts, antennae, overhead wires, cables etc. are at risk
from precipitation, wind, snow, unstable ground conditions and changes in humidity
 Drought increases the risk of land subsidence resulting in a potential reduction in the stability of the
foundations and tower structures
Impacts of climate change on the ICT sector

56. Impacts of storms on the ICT sector
Hurricane Sandy resulted in flooding of Verizon Central Offices in Lower Manhattan

57. Impacts to the
Public Sector

58. The Public Sector
 The public sector includes emergency services infrastructure such as fire, rescue, emergency medical
services (EMS), and law enforcement organisations that are employed to save lives and property in the
event of a natural disaster.
 Physical damage to their facilities or disruption of their operations could prevent a full, effective response
and exacerbate the outcome of a natural disaster.
 In addition, hospitals, clinics, and public health systems play a critical role in mitigating and recovering from
the effects of natural disasters.

59. Potential Consequences & Impacts to the
Public sector

60. Managing impacts to climate change
 The EU Climate Adaptation Strategy, acknowledges that climate related hazards will have a defining
impact on the status and operational capacity of European critical infrastructures, and society as a
whole.
 Adapting infrastructure to manage the impacts of a changing climate can be considered in two
ways:
1. For new infrastructure, locating, designing, constructing and operating an asset should take into
account both the current and future climate. This is particularly important in the case of large
infrastructure that usually has a lifespan of at least 20 years.
2. Existing infrastructure can be made more climate-resilient by retrofitting and/or ensuring that
maintenance regimes incorporate resilience to climate change over an asset‘s lifetime.

61. References
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book, United Nations University – ITC School on Disaster Geoinformation Management, 2011.
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DOCUMENT, 2013.
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VULNERABILITIES,” Technical Report for the U.S. Department of Energy in Support of the National Climate Assessment,
US, 2012.
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approach,” European Institute for Energy Research, Karlsruhe, Germany, 2011.
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6. The Federal Government , German Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change, The Federal Government , 2008.
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Research, vol. 128, no. 2, pp. 282-289, 2001.
8. EEA, “Safe water and healthy water services in a changing environment,” vol. 7, 2011.

62. References
9. A. P. F. M. D. C. P.-L. T. (. R. K. R. K. W. a. D. Y. Georgakakos, “Water Resources. Climate Change Impacts in the
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Structure,” Trans Tech Publications In Applied Mechanics and Materials, vol. 284, pp. 1269-1272, 2013.
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Mitigation,” Water Research Foundation and Environmental Protection Agency, 2013.
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63. References
16. L. A. Bollinger, C. W. J. Bogmans, E. J. L. Chappin, G. P. J. Dijkema, J. N. Huibregtse, N. Maas, T. Schenk, M.
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17. EU CIRCLE, 2016. D1.2 STATE OF THE ART REVIEW AND TAXONOMY OF EXISTING KNOWLEDGE .