Click to edit Master title styleSustainable intensificationfor food and nutrition securityFood, Forests, and Landscapes: S...
Click to edit Master title styleKey messages Global burden of hunger, malnutrition, anddisease is high Challenges to nat...
Click to edit Master title style2012 Global Hunger IndexGHI components:•Proportion of undernourished•Prevalence of underwe...
Click to edit Master title style2 bil. + people suffer from hidden hungerPrevalence of micronutrient deficienciesSource: H...
Click to edit Master title style In 2008• Over 1.4 bil. adults overweight• Over 500 mil. adults obese 2.8 mil. deaths an...
Click to edit Master title styleGrowth is critical for nutritionpart of the SOLUTION and part of the PROBLEMGrowth improve...
Click to edit Master title styleCurrent / future challenges threaten foodand nutrition security Increasing population and...
Click to edit Master title style01020304050 OECDDeveloping countriesSource: Data from OECD-FAO 2012GDP per capita (2005 $U...
Click to edit Master title styleShenggen Fan, June 2013Land and water constraints are high 24% of global land area affect...
Click to edit Master title styleShenggen Fan, June 2013Climate change will have adverse impactson agricultureTotal global ...
Click to edit Master title styleShenggen Fan, June 2013Sustainable intensification is criticalAgriculture can Meet the wo...
Click to edit Master title styleShenggen Fan, June 2013Sustainable world scenario assumptions High economic growth (3.58%...
Click to edit Master title styleShenggen Fan, June 20132005 2030Conventionalworlds2050Conventionalworlds2030Sustainablewor...
Click to edit Master title styleShenggen Fan, June 2013A nexus approach must be adoptedLAND WATERFOODENERGYSource: Adapted...
Click to edit Master title styleShenggen Fan, June 2013Integrating sustainability and foodsecurity Assessing natural reso...
Click to edit Master title styleShenggen Fan, June 2013Integrating agriculture, nutrition, andhealthBiofortification• Inte...
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Presentation by Shenggen Fan CIFOR-IFPRI Policy Seminar "Food, Forests, and Landscapes - Solutions for Sustainable Development

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CIFOR-IFPRI Policy Seminar "Food, Forests, and Landscapes - Solutions for Sustainable Development" with Shenggen Fan, IFPRI, Peter Holmgren, CIFOR, and Geeta Sethi, The World Bank.

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  • MIROC/A1B
  • Presentation by Shenggen Fan CIFOR-IFPRI Policy Seminar "Food, Forests, and Landscapes - Solutions for Sustainable Development

    1. 1. Click to edit Master title styleSustainable intensificationfor food and nutrition securityFood, Forests, and Landscapes: Solutions for Sustainable DevelopmentWashington, DC
    2. 2. Click to edit Master title styleKey messages Global burden of hunger, malnutrition, anddisease is high Challenges to natural resources and theenvironment are large Sustainable intensification is critical for foodand nutrition security
    3. 3. Click to edit Master title style2012 Global Hunger IndexGHI components:•Proportion of undernourished•Prevalence of underweight in children•Under-five mortality rateSource: von Grebmer et al. 201250+ countries have serious / alarming /extremely alarming levels of hunger
    4. 4. Click to edit Master title style2 bil. + people suffer from hidden hungerPrevalence of micronutrient deficienciesSource: HarvestPlus 2011Economic cost of malnutrition = $3.5 trillion or 5%of global GDPZinc deficiency, S. AsiaChildren <5: 79%Iron deficiency, AfricaChildren <5: 68%Pregnant women: 57%(FAO 2013)
    5. 5. Click to edit Master title style In 2008• Over 1.4 bil. adults overweight• Over 500 mil. adults obese 2.8 mil. deaths annually related tooverweight and obesity Overweight and obesity no more adeveloped-country problem; in 2008• Brazil, Mexico, South Africa:50-70% of adults• China: 25% of adultsOverweight and obesity are risingPrevalence of overweight and obese childrenunder-five, 1990-2020 (%)Source: de Onis, et al. 2010Note: Asia excludes Japan; Developed Countries includes Japan036912151990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020AfricaAsiaDeveloped CountriesDeveloping CountriesOverweight and obese children to riseby 43% in developing countries(2010-2020)Source: WHO 2013
    6. 6. Click to edit Master title styleGrowth is critical for nutritionpart of the SOLUTION and part of the PROBLEMGrowth improves nutrition10% in GDP/capita is associatedwith 6% in child stuntingGrowth has unintended effectson nutrition10% in GDP/capita is associatedwith 7% in women overweight & obesitySource: Ruel et al. 2013Note: Graphics by J. Vivalo (IFPRI)
    7. 7. Click to edit Master title styleCurrent / future challenges threaten foodand nutrition security Increasing population and urbanization Rising incomes and demand / diet changes Rising oil prices / biofuel expansion;increasing volatility of food prices Growing natural resource constraints Climate change and higher frequency /intensity of extreme weather events
    8. 8. Click to edit Master title style01020304050 OECDDeveloping countriesSource: Data from OECD-FAO 2012GDP per capita (2005 $US in ‗000s)Rising incomes will lead tohigher food demand and diet changesSource: Data from ERS-USDA 2012Change in consumption of agric.products, 2009-11 to 2021 (%)024681012142000 2010 2020 2030WorldDeveloping CountriesGlobal food demand expected to rise 60% by 2050 (FAO 2012)
    9. 9. Click to edit Master title styleShenggen Fan, June 2013Land and water constraints are high 24% of global land area affected bydegradation (1981–2003) Annual forest net loss = 5.2 mil. ha (2000-10) Arable land per capita• 65% (1970-00)• expected to further 50% by 2050Annual loss of per capita arable land indeveloping countries, 1961–2009Source: FAO 2011; Nkonya et al. 2011With ―business as usual,‖ high water stress by2050 puts at risk globally• 52% of population• 49% of grain production• 45% of GDPWater stress for total renewable waterwithdrawn, BAU, 2050 (%)Source: Veolia Water and IFPRI 2011
    10. 10. Click to edit Master title styleShenggen Fan, June 2013Climate change will have adverse impactson agricultureTotal global production: -37.3%Rainfed maize, 2080Irrigated wheat, 2080Total global production: -28.8% Source: IFPRI IMPACT 2011
    11. 11. Click to edit Master title styleShenggen Fan, June 2013Sustainable intensification is criticalAgriculture can Meet the world‘s growing and changing demand for food,feed, fiber, and fuel Enhance nutrition and health Preserve the planet‘s natural resourcesWell-designed sustainable intensificationstrategy make possible• meeting rising agric. demand from existing natural resources• reducing negative environmental effects of increased agric.production• adaptation and mitigation of climate change
    12. 12. Click to edit Master title styleShenggen Fan, June 2013Sustainable world scenario assumptions High economic growth (3.58%); low population growth (0.35%) Additional investments in agricultural R&D• Crop yield growth +90% from baseline (+27% from 2030)• livestock yield growth +50% from baseline (+15% from 2030) Water use efficiency improvements by 2050 incl.• 1.2% per year technological change in domestic and industrial sectors;full access to safe drinking water• Reduction in water demand (domestic = - 45%; industrial = - 43%;irrigation = - 14.5%) UNFCCC‘s agreed limit of 2˚C temperature rise relative to pre-industrial levels achieved Access to secondary schooling for all girls by 2030Source: Rosegrant et al. 2009; Nelson et al. 2010; IFPRI IMPACT 2012; UNEP 2012
    13. 13. Click to edit Master title styleShenggen Fan, June 20132005 2030Conventionalworlds2050Conventionalworlds2030Sustainableworlds2050SustainableworldsArea-weightedgrain prices,$US / ton150 202 253 160 154Total cropharvested area,‘000 ha1,520,811 1,684,198 1,689,758 1,569,207 1,489,230Developingcountry calorieavailability /person / day2,637 2,717 2,823 3,213 4,159Malnourishedchildrenworldwide, mil.153 136 115 78 50Source: Adapted from UNEP 2012 with data from IMPACT model projections; Nelson et al. 2010Notes: Conventional approach: business-as-usual; Sustainable approach: consideration for competing resource demands;emphasis on water, land, & energy conservation through investments in technological innovation & higher resource-use efficiencySelected indicators for conventional and sustainable world scenariosIFPRI IMPACT ModelSustainable intensification: Future scenarios
    14. 14. Click to edit Master title styleShenggen Fan, June 2013A nexus approach must be adoptedLAND WATERFOODENERGYSource: Adapted from Hoff 2011Food-land-water-energyAgriculture-nutrition-healthSource: Adapted from A4NH 2012A nexus approach canminimize trade-offs andpromote sectoral synergies
    15. 15. Click to edit Master title styleShenggen Fan, June 2013Integrating sustainability and foodsecurity Assessing natural resource impacts of food securitystrategies; and vice versa Promoting resource-efficient technologies and practices• E.g. solar-powered drip irrigation; slow-release fertilizers Promoting climate-smart agriculture• Triple wins‖ - productivity, adaptation, mitigation• E.g. Improved crop rotation with legumes; use of cover crops Reducing food waste and promoting healthy diet• Tax unhealthy and unsustainable foods and support healthy andsustainable food productionSource: Bryan et al. 2011; Burney et al 2009
    16. 16. Click to edit Master title styleShenggen Fan, June 2013Integrating agriculture, nutrition, andhealthBiofortification• Integration of nutrient-rich varieties, high-yielding, and stress-tolerantcrop varieties• Orange sweet potato in Uganda—prevalence of Vitamin A deficiencyreduced by over 30% among childrenHomestead food production program, Bangladesh• Integration of home gardening, small livestock production, and nutritioneducation• Farmers‘ varieties more than doubled; production almost tripled; andconsumption of vegetables rose by 30%One Health initiative• Integration of human medicine, veterinary medicine, and environmentalscienceSource: Hotz et al. 2012; Spielman et al 2009; McDermott et al 2012

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