The breakup of the Soviet Union, the largest country in size, in 1991 was one of the top five news of the 20th century Caused by multiple reasons, it resulted in multi-dimensional consequences, short term as well as long term Some of the consequences we are still witnessing even in the 21st century, some may be witnessed by the coming generations This presentation is an attempt to analyse the causes of this momentous event and assess its far-reaching consequences

1. Shahid Hussain Raja
Author/Consultant/Trainer
Cambridge. UK
www.shahidhussainraja.com

2. Introduction
Background
How did it happen
Causes of the Break up
Consequences of the Breakup
Conclusion

3.  The breakup of the Soviet Union, the largest country in size, in 1991 was
one of the top five news of the 20th century
 Caused by multiple reasons, it resulted in multi-dimensional
consequences, short term as well as long term
 Some of consequences we are still witnessing even in 21st century,
some may be witnessed by the coming generations
 This presentation is an attempt to analyse the causes of this momentous
event and assess its far-reaching consequences

4.  After the end of WW 2 in 1945 till its dissolution on 25th December
1991, the Soviet Union was the largest country in the world,
 Covering 224 million square km, one-sixth of Earth's land surface, its
population was 290 million consisting of 100 distinct nationalities.
 With an arsenal of tens of thousands of nuclear weapons and a huge
sphere of influence, it used to compete with its arch-rival, the USA
 However, this superpower was a divided house which crumbled like a
house of cards within 18 months after holding first free/fair election.

5.  May 1990-elections on multi-party system, created a presidency
 Ensued an epic battle between pluralists hard-line Communist elite
 This one-year long tussle shook the foundations of the Soviet Union.
 August 1991-An unsuccessful coup by old guards against Gorbachev
 President Gorbachev resigned as head of the Communist party
 Boris Yeltsin became President, banned party activities

6.  Baltic States, Ukraine, & Belarus declared their independence.
 December 6-Soviet leaders met in Brest to form the CIS
 On December 25, 1991, the Soviet Union ceased to exist
 Mikhail Gorbachev resigned his post as president
 Boris Yeltsin became president of newly independent Russia

7.  Too many structural and managerial causes of the fall of USSR
 Impossible to point out one or two reasons for complex event
 Still no agreement about the causes of the fall of the Roman Empire.
 They are not going to agree quickly on why the Soviet Union
collapsed.
 Some even argue why it took so long for USSR to break!
 Here are a few theories

8.  Russians hold Gorbachev responsible for failing to prevent collapse
 Particularly his Glasnost ("openness") and Perestroika ("restructuring")
 Why didn’t invoke Brezhnev Doctrine in any dissenting Soviet republic
 However, it is not valid argument; USSR was already falling apart
 None could have done anything which could stop this decline.
 Gorbachev should be commended for this relatively peaceful transition

9.  To many scholars arms race between the USA and the USSR in the 1980s
was the proverbial last straw that broke the camel's back.
 Soviet military budget accelerated dramatically during the presidency of
Ronald Reagan after his proposal of the Strategic Defense Initiative.
 USSR devoted huge funds for its defence industry throughout the 1970s
and '80s thanks to the sky-rocketing of its major exports of oil and gas.
 However, after oil plunged from $120 to $24/pb in 1986, its economy
failed to produce enough surplus for defence and welfare simultaneously

10.  Mikhail Gorbachev tried to introduce fundamental structural reforms
in the economy, polity, and society simultaneously.
 He curtailed the draconian powers of the dreaded KGB, removed
unnecessary press restrictions, introduced a kind of democracy,
 However, he failed to assess the powers of the status quo, the
enormity of the task, resistance by the conservative establishment.
 It was a classical example of the French scholar Tocqueville’s Dictum-
when a decaying regime tries to reform, it disintegrates.

11.  USSR was an empire, in an age that was not an age of empires. It had 100
distinct nationalities/nations all aspiring for independent nation-states
 Gorbachev's decision to loosen the soviet control over countries of Eastern
Europe created an independent, democratic momentum
 Gorbachev agreed to German reunification and acquiesced when a newly
reunited Germany joined NATO. Afterwards, it was unstoppable
 In January 1991, violence erupted in Lithuania and Latvia. Soviet tanks
intervened to halt the democratic uprisings but failed.

12.  Paul Kennedy maintains that the great powers start declining when
they overstretch themselves.
 USSR had stretched itself too much but did not have resources
 Neither its currency was like dollar which could give it liberty to print
it with impunity to cover costs of this imperial burden.
 Nor it had sufficient resources, economic and military, to curb the
centrifugal forces of sub-nationalism of its constituents

13.  Soviet state just lost its instrumental legitimacy or raison d'être i.e.,
the reason for being due to dysfunctionality of the communist system
 It became irrelevant for the common citizen for its failure to help
them maintain a decent standard of living.
 It stifled the incentive to work and save because the state was
responsible for everyone from the cradle to the grave.
 It discouraged innovation as there was no reward for individuals to
excel; economic system failed to create enough surplus

14.  O. A. Westad maintains that the collapse of communism stemmed
from the decisions of the Chinese communists
 Chinese abandoned socialist economics and changed to a form of
capitalism, which served as a role model for the Soviet state.
 The Chinese had been pressurising other communist states to do the
same; Soviet Union tried to emulate it without realising its pitfalls
 Secondly, Soviet involvement in Afghanistan from 1979 onwards
weakened and finally brought down the USSR.

15.  "It is too early to assess the impact of the French Revolution". Cho en
Lie, the Chines stateman’s observation about French Revolution
 Well, the same can be said about the consequences of the fall of the
Soviet Union; it is too early to answer this question.
 It will take decades and decades to finally assess the impact of the fall
of the Soviet Union.
 However, some of the most visible consequences are as follows

16.  Most immediate result was coming into existence of two dozen
independent countries previously known as the republics of USSR
 Once Berlin Wall fell IN 1989, citizens in several Eastern European
countries staged protests against their pro-Soviet governments
 Soon communist governments had been replaced by democratically
elected ones, reintegration into Western economic/political spheres.
 It was a welcome relief for the millions of those who were living under
the yoke of Russian imperialism -the East Europeans.

17.  The breakup of the USSR resulted in end of the Cold War that had
marred the international relations in multiple ways.
 No longer seen by West as 'enemy', countries of NATO and Warsaw
Pact signed treaty agreeing that they were 'no longer adversaries'.
 However, with Cold War over, veneer of close relationship among
NATO disappeared, replaced with differences over several issues
 During the war in Bosnia, relations between USA and Western Europe
became strained when the USA refused to provide troops for the UN

18.  Dissolution of USSR left the U.S. as the only true world superpower to
implement its long-term dream of ushering in Pax Americana.
 Cold War had served as a deterrence; now it was one-way traffic for
the USA to intervene militarily and otherwise in foreign countries
 Balance of power between the two contenders of global hegemony
had ensured global peace with occasional outbreaks of wars.
 Gulf War would have never happened. Similarly, there was no chance
of disintegration of Yugoslavia and the resultant Balkan wars.

19.  End of Cold War led to greater interaction among states & people,
accelerated globalisation facilitating interaction among nations
 Globalisation expanded global commerce, brought more FDI to
developing countries, inspired democratic movements
 Globalisation also helped increase middle classes who are by tradition
anti-war and pro-peace, pro-trade, investment and greater
prosperity
 Expansion and stretching of social activities and interdependencies
are resulting in making the world literally become a global village

20.  Fundamental changes in objective realities necessitated new paradigm
for academia and policy makers for understanding international
relations.
 One such idea was the End of History thesis, given by Francis Fukuyama
 He argued that now communism’s main rival namely Western liberal
democracy and market economy was the final form of global
governance.
 Despite all criticism levelled against this thesis, it is fact that there has
not been any serious threat to capitalistic form of economic system
 In fact, all the rival theories put forward are just different shades of
capitalism and market economy, not its complete substitutes.

21.  Non-aligned Movement (NAM) lost its relevance; no Cold War.
 EU extended its influence into areas that Moscow once controlled
 European Union expanded from 12 member states to 28 members.
 China emerged as superpower creating its own sphere of influence.
 Reunification of Germany enhanced its position in the EU/ NATO.

22.  End of History thesis was challenged by his teacher Mr. Samuel P. Huntington who
anticipated the clash of civilizations instead of peaceful world of Fukuyama
 It had profound impact in shaping the perceptions of public/policy makers with
disastrous results in several cases.
 People started to use this thesis to explain and even justify several conflicts as fight
between adherents of religious beliefs
 During Cold War, these interpreted as a fight between capitalism and communism.
 Rising cases of Islamophobia are one of the offshoots of this thesis

23.  Most devastating unintended result was rise of global terrorism.
 To avenge defeat in Vietnam, CIA was tasked to destabilise Afghanistan
 It created Muslim militant groups to fight against USSR in Afghanistan.
 Once objectives were achieved, CIA abandoned these radicalised Muslims
 They then took arms for implementing true Islam by force
 One such resistance group was Al-Qaida led by Osama Bin Laden who
started a global Jihad against the West; 9/11 was just tip of iceberg

24.  During Cold War, both super powers kept control over regional conflicts.
 Now, a conflict normally left to find its own solution, bloody or
otherwise.
 No more tight control of nuclear, biological and chemical weapons.
 Nationalism, suppressed by communism, soon re-emerged
 Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia, Yugoslavia, which broke up into 5 states
 In Bosnia, Serbs, Croats, and Muslims fought each other to set up states

25.  Reignited historical fears of hegemonic designs of Germany.
 Poland fearing loss of former German territory under it
 France and UK apprehensive about its leadership role in EU
 Germany not be allowed to expand its own armed forces.
 It made Germany the economic giant and actual leader of EU!

26.  Caused by multiple reasons and resulting in multiple consequences, the
breakup of the Soviet Union was an extremely momentous event
 External challenges apart, it began with growing unrest in its constituent
republics for lack of political empowerment & sub-standard quality of life
 Developing into an incessant political and legislative conflict between the
republics and the central government, and culminated in its collapse
 Some of the consequences we are still witnessing even in 21st century and
some may be witnessed by the coming generations

27.  If you like the presentation , kindly click the icon
 For any question, kindly email me at shahidraja@hotmail.com
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website
www.shahidhussainraja.com
This website contains large number of articles on diverse issues. Some
of these are presented in the next few slides

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