COASTAL GEOLOGIC HAZARDS
          AND SEA-LEVEL RISE:
    CLIMATE CHANGE IN RHODE ISLAND
       Shoreline Change SAMP Stakeholders Meeting
                               4 April 2013

                Jon C. Boothroyd1,2and Bryan A. Oakley3

                      (1) Rhode Island Geological Survey
(2) Department of Geosciences, University of Rhode Island, Kingston RI 02881
    (3) Environmental Earth Science Department, Eastern Connecticut State
                        University, Willimantic, CT 06226
Summary for Rhode Island:
• Glacial Geology, Past and Present,
  the Underlying Key to Understanding Processes and
  Products
• Storms the Most Important Driver in Coastal Change
  Sea-Level Rise a Secondary Effect
• Shoreface Sediment Transport Not Well Understood
  at Present
• Future Major Storms Combined With Sea-Level Rise
  a Very Large Problem
• Accelerated Sea-Level Rise Resulting in Inundation
  also a Very Large Potential Problem
• RICRMC Planning for a 3-5 foot Rise by 2100 and a
  1.5 foot Rise by 2050
S New England, E New York, Continental Shelf at LGM ~ 26,000 yBP


                             You are
                              here     RI




                                                Map Generated By:
                                            BA Oakley and JC Boothroyd
Eustatic
 Sea-Level
   Rise
     +                   Isostatic
                         Rebound
 Isostatic
 Rebound
     at                                   Laurentide
Block Island                              Ice Sheet?
                                           Laurentide
                                          2m.100yr-1
                                            Ice Sheet?
     RI                  Relative           2m.100yr-1
                        Sea Level

                                     Antarctic Ice
                                        Sheet?
                         Eustatic    2-5m.100yr-1
                        Sea Level
                                           Explanation


Oakley and Boothroyd,
      July 2012
Geomorphology
      of
 Southeastern
 New England
Narragansett Pier, RI Seawall – Tropical Storm Irene 2011

Storms are the Driver




                              Anonymous via N Vinhateiro, 28 aug 2011
Frontal Erosion - Browning Cottages




                                      BA Oakley
Superstorm Sandy - Browning Cottages




                                                              30 Oct 2012

             http://fema.maps.arcgis.com/home/webmap/viewer.html?webmap=
Superstorm Sandy - Browning Cottages




                                  31 Oct 2012
Frontal Erosion 1939-2012 -
Browning Cottages, Moonstone Beach, RI


 House                         2012
moved to
 Upland




                        1951
Shoreface – Inner Shelf Deposition
        Block Island Sound
 Offshore Movement of Sand
Sandy Geologic Summary:
• Sandy a Tropical – Extratropical Hybrid
• Significant Wave Height 31 feet at Inner Shelf Buoy;
  Max Recorded Wave Height 47 feet
• RI Received a Glancing Blow ; But Public
  Misconception by Some Believe it a 100 Year Event
• Greatest Geologic Change and Infrastructure
  Damage Since Hurricane Carol, 1954
• Washover Fan Deposition an Underestimated
  Problem
• Shoreline Change Special Area Management Plan
  Needed to Better Prepare for Next Event – Already
  Started
Superstorm Sandy – Tropical-Extratropical Hybrid
              29 October 2012
             Newport Tide Gauge



                SET UP
                                                    PREDICTED




                    http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/
  STORM SURGE       data_menu.shtml?stn=8452660%20Newport,%20RI&type=Tide+Data
How High      Maximum Water Level

 was the              9.46 Feet, 2.88 meters
                          Above MHHW
 Water ?                                  Boothroyd and
                 Carol Water Level         Hehre 2008

                                                          Why above
                                                           MHHW?

                 Sandy Water Level
  Water
                       4.25 Feet, 1.30 meters
  Levels                   Above MHHW
Newport, RI


              MHHW = 3.85 ft, 1.173 m



                                                                 Adapted from:
                                                           www.ngs.noaa.gov/newsy
                                                                    s-cgi-
              MLLW = 0.0 ft, 0.0 m                         bin/ngs_opsd.prl?PID=LW
                                                           0493&EPOCH=1983-2001
Frequency?
    Next Month or
      Next Year


                 Superstorm Sandy
                     Oct 2012
Tropical Storm
Irene Aug 2011

                                    Hurricane Bob
                                      Aug 1991




                                                    Adapted from
                                                       NOAA;
                                                    USACE 1988;
                                                     Hehre 2007
Measuring Shore Transects with:
“2 Sticks and A String” or, the Modified Emery Method




                                                     -22cm




                                     Eric Woodward   12 Oct 2012
Cha-Ez Profile - Charlestown Barrier - Post Sandy




                  Washover Fan
                   Deposition
                                        S McCandless
                                          30 Oct 2012
Post
Sandy        Pre-Sandy




 FEMA Dune
  Erosion
  Protocol
Charlestown Beach – Blizzard 1978 – No Berm




                                        JC Boothroyd
Post
Sandy
        Blizzard
         1978
Elevation          Washover Fan
                       Deposition
  Difference –
  USACE Post
 Sandy and 2011
  USGS LiDAR
     DEMs

  Charlestown
    Barrier                              Foredune
                                         Removal




                                     Cha-Ez
                                     Profile

DRAFT FIGURE –
PRELIMINARY RESULTS
Pre-Sandy – Quonochontaug Barrier
         Conservation Land

 Washover Fan
  Deposition




                             Bousquet and Son – Aerial Views
Post-Sandy –
Quonochontaug Barrier
   Conservation Land
Washover Fan
 Deposition




                        Bousquet and Son – Aerial Views
A General Coastal Barrier Model for Rhode Island
                Very Transgressive
Napatree Barrier – Westerly, RI



                         Little Narragansett Bay




                                                        Watch Hill




                                             Hehre and Boothroyd, 2007
Napatree Barrier – Shoreline Change Map

                        2004 – Sound Side
    1939 – Sound Side




                   -71.6m


                    1939 –      2004 – Ocean Side
                  Ocean Side

                                                Hehre and Boothroyd, 2007
Washover Fan Deposition
  Misquamicut Barrier - Westerly


               Atlantic Ave
Washover Fan




                                    RI DOT
                                   30 Oct 2012
Charlestown Beach, RI – Hurricane Bob 1991
Washover Fan Deposition




   Removal is a Bad Idea …….
    Barriers Naturally Retreat           Aug 1991
     Landward and Upward                JC Boothroyd
Deposition and Damage
Misquamicut Headland - Westerly    Washover Fan




  Andrea
                       MSQ - And
   Hotel
                        Profile
                                              RI DOT
                                            30 Oct 2012
Misquamicut          Andrea
                       Hotel
   Shoreline
 “Protection”
  Structure –
 Late 1950s to
  Early 1960s




             1957
             Ford



Providence Journal?
Andrea Hotel - Misquamicut Headland - Westerly




The Managed Retreat Begins
                        Frieda Squires, Providence Journal   10 mar 2013
The Fate of Washover Fans –
  Misquamicut State Beach




    And Hopefully, the Exercise of
                                         Scott Rasmussen
Scientific Rationale for Replenishment        15 Feb 2013
A Very Brief Look
        at
 Climate Change
     and the
Future Shore Zone
        of
  Rhode Island
Co2now.org 394.37




    www.350.org




http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/co2_data_mlo.html
HEIGHT NOW




                      Adapted from:
        http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/
sltrends_station.shtml?stnid=8452660%20Newport,%20RI
                                                                    Boothroyd 2012
6.1 ft                                      185 cm
                                   VR Max


4.5 ft                       VR A1F1        137 cm



                             VR B1          100 cm




         Height above NOW
1.4 ft                                      41




                            2050
Ninigret – Green Hill Lagoons
2003 – 2004 Orthophoto

 Today
Ninigret – Green Hill Lagoons
 2100 Inundation – 5 ft
200 ft Barrier Migration
  Projected
Ninigret – Green Hill Lagoons
    2100 Inundation – 5 ft
+ 1938 Hurricane Surge Event
 Projected
South Kingstown, RI – Town Beach
    An Eroding Glacial Bluff Shore




                                     BA Oakley
South Kingstown, RI – Town Beach
    An Eroding Glacial Bluff Shore




  Boardwalk
   Pilings

                                      RI DOT
                                     30 Oct 2012
Headland Erosion – Glacial Stratified Bluff




         28m
Matunuck Headland, S Kingstown
     Shoreline Change 1951 - 2012
Projected Change
   2012 - 2050                      2050



                                    2012




                                           1951
End of Presentation

Coastal Geologic Hazards and Sea-Level Rise: Climate Change in Rhode Island

  • 1.
    COASTAL GEOLOGIC HAZARDS AND SEA-LEVEL RISE: CLIMATE CHANGE IN RHODE ISLAND Shoreline Change SAMP Stakeholders Meeting 4 April 2013 Jon C. Boothroyd1,2and Bryan A. Oakley3 (1) Rhode Island Geological Survey (2) Department of Geosciences, University of Rhode Island, Kingston RI 02881 (3) Environmental Earth Science Department, Eastern Connecticut State University, Willimantic, CT 06226
  • 2.
    Summary for RhodeIsland: • Glacial Geology, Past and Present, the Underlying Key to Understanding Processes and Products • Storms the Most Important Driver in Coastal Change Sea-Level Rise a Secondary Effect • Shoreface Sediment Transport Not Well Understood at Present • Future Major Storms Combined With Sea-Level Rise a Very Large Problem • Accelerated Sea-Level Rise Resulting in Inundation also a Very Large Potential Problem • RICRMC Planning for a 3-5 foot Rise by 2100 and a 1.5 foot Rise by 2050
  • 3.
    S New England,E New York, Continental Shelf at LGM ~ 26,000 yBP You are here RI Map Generated By: BA Oakley and JC Boothroyd
  • 4.
    Eustatic Sea-Level Rise + Isostatic Rebound Isostatic Rebound at Laurentide Block Island Ice Sheet? Laurentide 2m.100yr-1 Ice Sheet? RI Relative 2m.100yr-1 Sea Level Antarctic Ice Sheet? Eustatic 2-5m.100yr-1 Sea Level Explanation Oakley and Boothroyd, July 2012
  • 5.
    Geomorphology of Southeastern New England
  • 6.
    Narragansett Pier, RISeawall – Tropical Storm Irene 2011 Storms are the Driver Anonymous via N Vinhateiro, 28 aug 2011
  • 7.
    Frontal Erosion -Browning Cottages BA Oakley
  • 8.
    Superstorm Sandy -Browning Cottages 30 Oct 2012 http://fema.maps.arcgis.com/home/webmap/viewer.html?webmap=
  • 9.
    Superstorm Sandy -Browning Cottages 31 Oct 2012
  • 10.
    Frontal Erosion 1939-2012- Browning Cottages, Moonstone Beach, RI House 2012 moved to Upland 1951
  • 11.
    Shoreface – InnerShelf Deposition Block Island Sound Offshore Movement of Sand
  • 12.
    Sandy Geologic Summary: •Sandy a Tropical – Extratropical Hybrid • Significant Wave Height 31 feet at Inner Shelf Buoy; Max Recorded Wave Height 47 feet • RI Received a Glancing Blow ; But Public Misconception by Some Believe it a 100 Year Event • Greatest Geologic Change and Infrastructure Damage Since Hurricane Carol, 1954 • Washover Fan Deposition an Underestimated Problem • Shoreline Change Special Area Management Plan Needed to Better Prepare for Next Event – Already Started
  • 13.
    Superstorm Sandy –Tropical-Extratropical Hybrid 29 October 2012 Newport Tide Gauge SET UP PREDICTED http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/ STORM SURGE data_menu.shtml?stn=8452660%20Newport,%20RI&type=Tide+Data
  • 14.
    How High Maximum Water Level was the 9.46 Feet, 2.88 meters Above MHHW Water ? Boothroyd and Carol Water Level Hehre 2008 Why above MHHW? Sandy Water Level Water 4.25 Feet, 1.30 meters Levels Above MHHW Newport, RI MHHW = 3.85 ft, 1.173 m Adapted from: www.ngs.noaa.gov/newsy s-cgi- MLLW = 0.0 ft, 0.0 m bin/ngs_opsd.prl?PID=LW 0493&EPOCH=1983-2001
  • 15.
    Frequency? Next Month or Next Year Superstorm Sandy Oct 2012 Tropical Storm Irene Aug 2011 Hurricane Bob Aug 1991 Adapted from NOAA; USACE 1988; Hehre 2007
  • 16.
    Measuring Shore Transectswith: “2 Sticks and A String” or, the Modified Emery Method -22cm Eric Woodward 12 Oct 2012
  • 17.
    Cha-Ez Profile -Charlestown Barrier - Post Sandy Washover Fan Deposition S McCandless 30 Oct 2012
  • 18.
    Post Sandy Pre-Sandy FEMA Dune Erosion Protocol
  • 19.
    Charlestown Beach –Blizzard 1978 – No Berm JC Boothroyd
  • 20.
    Post Sandy Blizzard 1978
  • 21.
    Elevation Washover Fan Deposition Difference – USACE Post Sandy and 2011 USGS LiDAR DEMs Charlestown Barrier Foredune Removal Cha-Ez Profile DRAFT FIGURE – PRELIMINARY RESULTS
  • 22.
    Pre-Sandy – QuonochontaugBarrier Conservation Land Washover Fan Deposition Bousquet and Son – Aerial Views
  • 23.
    Post-Sandy – Quonochontaug Barrier Conservation Land Washover Fan Deposition Bousquet and Son – Aerial Views
  • 24.
    A General CoastalBarrier Model for Rhode Island Very Transgressive
  • 25.
    Napatree Barrier –Westerly, RI Little Narragansett Bay Watch Hill Hehre and Boothroyd, 2007
  • 26.
    Napatree Barrier –Shoreline Change Map 2004 – Sound Side 1939 – Sound Side -71.6m 1939 – 2004 – Ocean Side Ocean Side Hehre and Boothroyd, 2007
  • 27.
    Washover Fan Deposition Misquamicut Barrier - Westerly Atlantic Ave Washover Fan RI DOT 30 Oct 2012
  • 28.
    Charlestown Beach, RI– Hurricane Bob 1991 Washover Fan Deposition Removal is a Bad Idea ……. Barriers Naturally Retreat Aug 1991 Landward and Upward JC Boothroyd
  • 29.
    Deposition and Damage MisquamicutHeadland - Westerly Washover Fan Andrea MSQ - And Hotel Profile RI DOT 30 Oct 2012
  • 30.
    Misquamicut Andrea Hotel Shoreline “Protection” Structure – Late 1950s to Early 1960s 1957 Ford Providence Journal?
  • 31.
    Andrea Hotel -Misquamicut Headland - Westerly The Managed Retreat Begins Frieda Squires, Providence Journal 10 mar 2013
  • 32.
    The Fate ofWashover Fans – Misquamicut State Beach And Hopefully, the Exercise of Scott Rasmussen Scientific Rationale for Replenishment 15 Feb 2013
  • 33.
    A Very BriefLook at Climate Change and the Future Shore Zone of Rhode Island
  • 34.
    Co2now.org 394.37 www.350.org http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/co2_data_mlo.html
  • 35.
    HEIGHT NOW Adapted from: http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/ sltrends_station.shtml?stnid=8452660%20Newport,%20RI Boothroyd 2012
  • 36.
    6.1 ft 185 cm VR Max 4.5 ft VR A1F1 137 cm VR B1 100 cm Height above NOW 1.4 ft 41 2050
  • 37.
    Ninigret – GreenHill Lagoons 2003 – 2004 Orthophoto Today
  • 38.
    Ninigret – GreenHill Lagoons 2100 Inundation – 5 ft 200 ft Barrier Migration Projected
  • 39.
    Ninigret – GreenHill Lagoons 2100 Inundation – 5 ft + 1938 Hurricane Surge Event Projected
  • 40.
    South Kingstown, RI– Town Beach An Eroding Glacial Bluff Shore BA Oakley
  • 41.
    South Kingstown, RI– Town Beach An Eroding Glacial Bluff Shore Boardwalk Pilings RI DOT 30 Oct 2012
  • 42.
    Headland Erosion –Glacial Stratified Bluff 28m
  • 43.
    Matunuck Headland, SKingstown Shoreline Change 1951 - 2012 Projected Change 2012 - 2050 2050 2012 1951
  • 44.