The document summarizes several projects related to sea level rise adaptation for the Ports of San Francisco and Oakland. It discusses analyzing vulnerable areas to coastal inundation under scenarios of 15 inches and 55 inches of sea level rise by 2050 and 2100, respectively. It also describes raising levees at the Port of Oakland and identifying existing and future flood risks at the Port of San Francisco. The document provides tables showing increased water levels and decreased return periods under climate change scenarios, highlighting the need to consider both sea level rise and climate change impacts in planning.

1. Sea Level Rise
Local Level Project Implementations
CCPCA Conference
San Jose State University
October 11, 2013

2. Projects Incorporating SLR
• Sea Level Rise
• Port of San Francisco – SLR adaptation
• Port of Oakland – Levee raise
• Balboa Island Seawalls
• SLR and Climate Change
• Infrastructure Improvements
• Risk Analysis

3. Sea Level Rise Adaptation Ports of San Francisco and
Oakland
• Sea Level Rise Analysis,
• Coastal Inundation Study,
• Locate vulnerable areas, and
• Mitigation alternative analysis with
recommendations

4. Coastal Inundation
• 100-year event
• Existing
• 2050, +15 inches
• 2100, +55 inches
• 110 years of tidal data
• Ocean swell, wind waves and fresh water inflows
not modified for climate change

5. 100-Year Water Level Results

6. Adaptation
• Port of Oakland raised levees +1 foot + foundation
• Port of San Francisco identified existing and
future sources of flooding

7. Balboa Seawalls
Opt 1: Waterside seawall replacement options: Least invasive and
expensive
Opt 2: Landside options: Greatest impact to properties, and Most
expensive
Presentation Title

8. 100yr Incremental Approach
8

9. What and When to Include Climate Change?
When – Water levels are affected by freshwater inflow
What - Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIPS3)
16 different Global Climate Models (GCMs), 3 different CO2
emission scenarios and several different initial conditions for a
total of 112 different projections
Scenario Name
SRESa2 – gfdl
CO2 Increase
CO2 emissions continue to accelerate
Global Climate Model Used
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
(NOAA) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (gfdl)
SRESb1 – gfdl
The rate of emissions growth moderates
and the emission rates themselves
eventually decrease
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
(NOAA) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (gfdl)
SRESa2 – ncar
CO2 emissions continue to accelerate
Parallel Climate Model (pcm), by the National Center
for Atmospheric Research (ncar)
SRESb1 – ncar
The rate of emissions growth moderates
and the emission rates themselves
eventually decrease
Parallel Climate Model (pcm), by the National Center
for Atmospheric Research (ncar)

10. Assumption
The future change in frequency of a given current return
period event based on climate change model results will
produce the same change in frequency for existing current
return period
Example
100-year flood frequency from the 1951–2000 flood
frequency data has a 0.022 (45 year) flood frequency in the
year 2050 (2026–2075 flood frequency curve)

11. Combine SLR and Climate Change (Delta)
• Sea Level Rise in North Bay and Delta needs to be
adjusted from Ocean Value
• Hydraulic relationships, Hydrodynamic models
• Flows and Tides are Independent
• Flood occurs when storm and high
tides coincide
• Monte Carlo

12. Change in Flood Frequency at Rio Vista

13. Effect of Climate Change and SLR
Increase in Water Level (feet)
Return Period
( years)
Excedance Probability
2050
2100
500
0.002
3.97
7.36
200
0.005
3.48
6.43
100
0.01
3.19
5.93
75
0.013
2.95
5.67
50
0.02
2.48
5.07
25
0.04
2.14
3.96
20
0.05
2.04
3.41
10
0.1
1.91
2.86
5
0.2
1.73
2.56
2
0.5
1.53
2.06
1.0
1.0
1.31
1.66

14. Questions???

15. Wave Runup