Refining projections of the 'warm Arctic, cold Siberia' pattern in climate model simulations
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This document summarizes research on modeling the "warm Arctic, cold Siberia" pattern under climate change. It finds that declining Arctic sea ice, especially sea ice thickness, reinforces warming over the Arctic and cooling over Siberia. The strength of this pattern also depends on the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation. Specifically, declining sea ice leads to a stronger Siberian high pressure system and increased chances of cold extremes in Eurasia during the easterly QBO phase. Future projections using an ensemble of climate models suggest that both declining sea ice and rising greenhouse gases will continue intensifying the warm Arctic-cold Siberia pattern through the 21st century.
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Refining projections of the 'warm Arctic, cold Siberia' pattern in climate model simulations
- 1. Refining projections of the 'warm Arctic, cold Siberia' pattern in climate model simulations Zachary Labe Colorado State University With Yannick Peings & Gudrun Magnusdottir 10 September 2020 Yale University Atmosphere and Ocean Climate Dynamics Seminar
- 5. 7 Feb. 2010
- 7. Vihma, 2014
- 8. Cohen et al. 2014
- 9. Barnes and Screen, 2015
- 10. Overland et al. 2016
- 11. Francis, 2017
- 12. Francis et al. 2017
- 13. Screen et al. 2018
- 14. CLIVAR Working Group, 2018
- 15. Screen et al. 2018
- 16. Vavrus, 2018
- 17. Coumou et al. 2018
- 18. Smith et al. 2019
- 19. Cohen et al. 2019
- 20. [Newson, 1973; Nature] “…great warming of the lower layers of the troposphere over the Arctic basin... In fact, there is a lowering of mid-latitude continental temperatures near the surface”
- 21. Global climate change Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude weather Arctic Amplification Changes in: + Storm tracks + Jet stream + Planetary waves Natural Variability + Internal modes + Solar cycle + Volcanoes Northern Hemisphere cryosphere changes + Summer and early fall Arctic sea-ice loss + Fall Eurasian snow cover increases + Late fall and winter Arctic sea-ice loss Polar Vortex [adapted/changed from Cohen et al., 2014; Nature Geosciences]
- 22. Global climate change Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude weather Arctic Amplification Changes in: + Storm tracks + Jet stream + Planetary waves Natural Variability + Internal modes + Solar cycle + Volcanoes Northern Hemisphere cryosphere changes + Summer and early fall Arctic sea-ice loss + Fall Eurasian snow cover increases + Late fall and winter Arctic sea-ice loss Polar Vortex [adapted/changed from Cohen et al., 2014; Nature Geosciences]
- 23. Global climate change Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude weather Arctic Amplification Changes in: + Storm tracks + Jet stream + Planetary waves Natural Variability + Internal modes + Solar cycle + Volcanoes Northern Hemisphere cryosphere changes + Summer and early fall Arctic sea-ice loss + Fall Eurasian snow cover increases + Late fall and winter Arctic sea-ice loss Polar Vortex [adapted/changed from Cohen et al., 2014; Nature Geosciences]
- 24. Global climate change Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude weather Arctic Amplification Changes in: + Storm tracks + Jet stream + Planetary waves Natural Variability + Internal modes + Solar cycle + Volcanoes Northern Hemisphere cryosphere changes + Summer and early fall Arctic sea-ice loss + Fall Eurasian snow cover increases + Late fall and winter Arctic sea-ice loss Polar Vortex [adapted/changed from Cohen et al., 2014; Nature Geosciences]
- 25. Global climate change Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude weather Arctic Amplification Changes in: + Storm tracks + Jet stream + Planetary waves Natural Variability + Internal modes + Solar cycle + Volcanoes Northern Hemisphere cryosphere changes + Summer and early fall Arctic sea-ice loss + Fall Eurasian snow cover increases + Late fall and winter Arctic sea-ice loss Polar Vortex [adapted/changed from Cohen et al., 2014; Nature Geosciences]
- 26. Global climate change Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude weather Arctic Amplification Changes in: + Storm tracks + Jet stream + Planetary waves Natural Variability + Internal modes + Solar cycle + Volcanoes Northern Hemisphere cryosphere changes + Summer and early fall Arctic sea-ice loss + Fall Eurasian snow cover increases + Late fall and winter Arctic sea-ice loss [adapted/changed from Cohen et al., 2014; Nature Geosciences] Polar Vortex
- 31. [ SIT ] Sea Ice Thickness Depth between sea surface and ice/snow layer [ SIC ] Sea Ice Concentration Fraction (%) of seawater covered by ice Snow Ice [ SIE ] Sea Ice Extent Area of seawater covered by any amount of ice (>15%)
- 32. [ SIT ] Sea Ice Thickness Depth between sea surface and ice/snow layer [ SIC ] Sea Ice Concentration Fraction (%) of seawater covered by ice Snow Ice [ SIE ] Sea Ice Extent Area of seawater covered by any amount of ice (>15%)
- 33. [ SIT ] Sea Ice Thickness Depth between sea surface and ice/snow layer [ SIC ] Sea Ice Concentration Fraction (%) of seawater covered by ice Snow Ice [ SIE ] Sea Ice Extent Area of seawater covered by any amount of ice (>15%)
- 34. R/V Lance – Greenland Sea – May 2017
- 35. R/V Lance – Greenland Sea – May 2017 Turbulent heat fluxes [ SIC ]
- 36. R/V Lance – Greenland Sea – May 2017 Turbulent heat fluxes [ SIC + SIT ]
- 37. WACCM4 Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model version 4 – Specified Chemistry “high top” chemistry-climate atmosphere model Physical parameterizations from CAM4 • 66 vertical levels – extending to 5 x 10-6 hPa (140 km) • 1.9° latitude x 2.5° longitude • QBO prescribed from radiosonde observations • Improved representation of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events • fixed radiative forcings from year 2000
- 38. !SIT = FIT – HIT !SIC = FIC – HIC !NET = FICT – HIT• Loss of sea-ice thickness and concentration • Loss of sea-ice thickness • Loss of sea-ice concentration
- 39. Sea-Ice Thickness LABE ET AL. 2018, GRL
- 40. Sea-Ice Concentration LABE ET AL. 2018, GRL
- 41. Future Arctic How does sea-ice thickness decline influence the large- scale atmospheric response? Significant thermodynamic response over Arctic Ocean Poleward weakening of jet LABE ET AL. 2018, GRL
- 42. Future Arctic Significant thermodynamic response over Arctic Ocean Poleward weakening of jet LABE ET AL. 2018, GRL How does sea-ice thickness decline influence the large- scale atmospheric response?
- 43. LABE ET AL. 2018, GRL
- 44. Loss of sea-ice thickness reinforces large-scale response LABE ET AL. 2018, GRL + =
- 48. Assess the role of the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) on the atmospheric response to Arctic sea-ice loss Composite response by QBO phase (~67 years) Modulation by QBO Sea ice experiments
- 49. Modulation by QBO Sea ice experiments Assess the role of the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) on the atmospheric response to Arctic sea-ice loss
- 50. Assess the role of the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) on the atmospheric response to Arctic sea-ice loss Composite response by QBO phase (~67 years) Modulation by QBO Sea ice experiments Future (2051-2080) Historical (1975-2005)
- 51. Assess the role of the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) on the atmospheric response to Arctic sea-ice loss Composite response by QBO phase (~67 years) Modulation by QBO Sea ice experiments Future (2051-2080) Historical (1975-2005)
- 52. Assess the role of the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) on the atmospheric response to Arctic sea-ice loss Modulation by QBO Sea ice experiments Composite response by QBO phase (~67 years) Easterly (QBO-E) Westerly (QBO-W)
- 53. Assess the role of the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) on the atmospheric response to Arctic sea-ice loss Modulation by QBO Sea ice experiments Composite response by QBO phase (~67 years) Easterly (QBO-E) Westerly (QBO-W)
- 54. Assess the role of the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) on the atmospheric response to Arctic sea-ice loss Sea ice experiments Composite response by QBO phase (~67 years) Modulation by QBO Surface (thermodynamic) Troposphere/Stratosphere
- 58. PLUMBFLUX LABE ET AL. 2019, GRL
- 59. PLUMBFLUX LABE ET AL. 2019, GRL
- 60. PLUMB FLUX QBO-E at 150 hPa Anomalous WAFz over Siberia LABE ET AL. 2019, GRL
- 61. COLDEXTREMES LABE ET AL. 2019, GRL
- 62. MOTIVATION ARCTIC SEA ICE MID-LATITUDE WEATHER Sea-ice thickness variability is important for reinforcing the atmospheric response Strength of Siberian High closely related to Eurasia cold spells QBO can modulate teleconnections due to Arctic sea-ice loss
- 63. MOTIVATION ARCTIC SEA ICE MID-LATITUDE WEATHER Sea-ice thickness variability is important for reinforcing the atmospheric response Strength of Siberian High closely related to Eurasia cold spells QBO can modulate teleconnections due to Arctic sea-ice loss
- 64. MOTIVATION ARCTIC SEA ICE MID-LATITUDE WEATHER Sea-ice thickness variability is important for reinforcing the atmospheric response Strength of Siberian High closely related to Eurasia cold spells QBO can modulate teleconnections due to Arctic sea-ice loss
- 68. WHAT IS THE EFFECT OF SEA-ICE LOSS RELATIVE TO ARCTIC AMPLIFICATION?
- 69. 1979-2019 – Temperature (°C) trends per decade – ERA5 OBSERVATIONS
- 70. Surface Troposphere 1979-2019 – Temperature (°C) trends per decade – ERA5 Mid-latitudes Arctic 1000 hPa 500 hPa 200 hPa
- 71. Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project [Smith et al., 2018; GCMD] Model: SC-WACCM4 Model: E3SM Setup: Constant SST Setup: Sea ice change Forcing(s): 2°C Forcing(s): Present Forcing(s): Pre-indust. Ensembles: 300 “Response to sea ice”
- 72. Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project [Smith et al., 2018; GCMD] Model: SC-WACCM4 Model: E3SM Setup: Constant SST Setup: Sea ice change Forcing(s): 2°C Forcing(s): Present Forcing(s): Pre-indust. Ensembles: 300 “Response to sea ice”
- 73. Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project [Smith et al., 2018; GCMD] Model: SC-WACCM4 Model: E3SM Setup: Constant SST Setup: Sea ice change Forcing(s): 2°C Forcing(s): Present Forcing(s): Pre-indust. Ensembles: 300 “Response to sea ice”
- 74. Temperature Surface Troposphere LABE ET AL. 2020, GRL
- 75. Surface Troposphere Stratosphere Zonal Wind LABE ET AL. 2020, GRL
- 76. AA-2030 AA-2060 AA-2090 • 2020-2039 Arctic Amplification Arctic Amplification Experiments RCP8.5 Forcing – LENS Peings et al. 2019, GRL • 2050-2069 Arctic Amplification • 2080-2099 Arctic Amplification
- 77. AA-2030 AA-2060 AA-2090 • 2020-2039 Arctic Amplification Arctic Amplification Experiments • 2050-2069 Arctic Amplification • 2080-2099 Arctic Amplification
- 78. Arctic45°N Arctic45°N Arctic45°N Sea-ice loss Arctic amplification LABE ET AL. 2020, GRL
- 79. ΔSEALEVELPRESSURE Arctic amplification LABE ET AL. 2020, GRL
- 80. ΔSEALEVELPRESSURE Arctic sea-ice loss LABE ET AL. 2020, GRL
- 83. Arctic amplification > sea-ice loss LABE ET AL. 2020, GRL
- 84. Zachary Labe zmlabe@rams.colostate.edu @ZLabe Atmospheric response sensitive to changes in Arctic sea-ice thickness variability and background state (QBO) Role of sea ice is small relative to Arctic amplification
- 85. Zachary Labe zmlabe@rams.colostate.edu @ZLabe Atmospheric response sensitive to changes in Arctic sea-ice thickness variability and background state (QBO) Role of sea ice is small relative to Arctic amplification QUESTIONS…
- 91. Arctic45°N Arctic45°N Arctic45°N Nudging to ~2030 Arctic Amplification [AGCM]
- 93. Arctic45°N Arctic45°N Arctic45°N Nudging to ~2060 Arctic Amplification [AGCM]
- 95. Arctic45°N Arctic45°N Arctic45°N Nudging to ~2090 Arctic Amplification [AGCM]
- 97. Arctic45°N Arctic45°N Arctic45°N 2°C Warming SIC-forcing [AGCM]
- 99. Arctic45°N Arctic45°N Arctic45°N 2°C Warming SIC-forcing [AOGCM]
- 101. Arctic45°N Arctic45°N Arctic45°N 2°C Warming SIC/SIT-forcing [AGCM]
- 107. EDDY-DRIVENJET
- 108. Δ50-hPaGEOPOTENTIAL
- 109. Dependence of the Siberian High response on polar mid-tropospheric warming Gray bar shows the uncertainty range between NCEP/NCAR R1 and ERA5 for 10-year epochs
- 110. 1. Climate models forced only by sea-ice anomalies do not capture the vertical extent of Arctic warming 2. Increase in 1000-500 hPa layer is linked to a strengthening of the Siberian High and cold anomalies in eastern Asia 3. Role of the stratosphere is unclear due to large internal variability at future global warming levels of 2°C Arctic amplification >> sea-ice loss
- 111. 1. Climate models forced only by sea-ice anomalies do not capture the vertical extent of Arctic warming 2. Increase in 1000-500 hPa layer is linked to a strengthening of the Siberian High and cold anomalies in eastern Asia 3. Role of the stratosphere is unclear due to large internal variability at future global warming levels of 2°C Arctic amplification >> sea-ice loss