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All is not what it seems -
Why integrate land management and
ecological literacy over space and time?
Richard Thackway
Fenner School, Australian National University
ENVS 2022/6012, Sustainable Systems: Rural (2015)
14 July 2015
Outline
• Why is native vegetation important?
• All is not what it seems – spatial & temporal change
• How land use modifies and fragments native vegetation
• Case studies
• Lessons
• Conclusions and more information
To understand landscape
transformation we to
understand why land
managers change the
structure, composition and
function of native vegetation
Historic goals of land managers over time
Values and decisions matrix:
• Social
• Economic
• Environmental
Intensification
Degradation?
State @ t1
State @ t2
State @ t3
Development
Regulation of hydrological regime
Generation of food and fibre
Regulation of climate / microclimate
Generation of raw materials
Recycling of organic matter
Creating and regulating habitats
Controlling reproduction and dispersal
LMP are used to change ecological function to
derive multiple benefits (ecosystem services)
t1 t2 t3
Time
State@t1
State@t2
State@t3
LMP = land management practicesYapp & Thackway 2015
Current & future goals of land managers
Values and decisions matrix:
• Social
• Economic
• Environmental
Extensification
Restoration
State @ t1
Regeneration
State @ t2
State @ t3
Thackway & Lesslie 2006
Why is
native
vegetation
extent and
condition
important?
State and
Commonwealth
Acts and
regulations
Yapp, Walker & Thackway 2010
Understanding the sites and landscapes
over time
Indigenous
land
management
First
explorers
Grazing
Degreeof
resilience/condition
Logging
Cropping
Site 1
Site 2
Site 3
Time
Reference state
Long
term
rainfall
Long term
disturbance
e.g. wildfire,
cyclones
Revegetation
Weeds
Ferals
What are the effects of severe natural
events on vegetation condition?
• Wildfire
• Dust storm
• Cyclone
• Others events …
Diagnostic attributes of VAST:
• Vegetation structure
• Species composition
• Regenerative capacity
VAST-2 criteria
and indicators
Change & Trends
Photos: CSIRO
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/amazing-bush-recovery-follows-2003-firestorm-20130113-2cnx0.html
Brindabella Ranges, ACT Wildfires
Fowlers Gaps, Broken Hill, NSW
Photos by Garry Dowling a) & c) Photos by Richard Thackway b) & d)
a) b)
c) d)
20132009
20132009
Dust storms
Savanna forests and woodlands
northern Australia
1996 2015
Photo by Jeremy Russell-Smith Photo by William Thackway
Cyclones
What is the effect of human interventions
on vegetation condition?
• Pest animals
• Grazing
• Forestry
• Infrastructure
• Others …
Diagnostic attributes of VAST:
• Vegetation structure
• Species composition
• Regenerative capacity
VAST-2 criteria
and indicators
Change & Trends
Photo by Peter Coyne
1740
1906
Phillip Island, South Pacific
Photo State Library NSW: JW Beattie
Pest animals
1860 already denuded
Phillip Island, South Pacific
Photos by Peter Coyne
a) b)
c) d)
1986 2008
1740 1986
Pest animals
Photo Richard Thackway
Kosciuszko National Park Power lines
Photo Richard Thackway
Power lines +++Kosciuszko National Park
What are the combined effects of natural
events and human interventions on
vegetation condition?
• Complex systems
Diagnostic attributes of VAST:
• Vegetation structure
• Species composition
• Regenerative capacity
VAST-2 criteria
and indicators
Change & Trends
Photos by Richard Thackway
Power lines +++Kosciuszko National Park
Grazing +++Goorooyarroo Nature Reserve, ACT
Photos by Richard Thackway
Understanding the transformation of
sites and landscapes over time
Indigenous
land
management
First
explorers
Grazing
Degreeof
resilience/condition
Logging
Cropping
Site 1
Site 2
Site 3
Time
Reference state
Long
term
rainfall
Long term
disturbance
e.g. wildfire,
cyclones
Revegetation
Weeds
Ferals
1925
Occupation
Relaxation
Anthropogenic
change
‘Net benefit’
time
1900 20251950
Reference
changeinvegetation
indicatororindex
1850 1875 1975 2000
VAST-2 model of transformation of native vegetation
VAST
classes
Concepts and definitions
• Resilience = the capacity of an plant community to recover
toward a reference state following a change/s in land
management
• Change in condition of a plant community (type) is due to
effects of land management practices on indicators of:
– Vegetation structure
– Species composition
– Regenerative capacity
• Transformation = changes in vegetation condition over time
• Condition, resilience and transformation are assessed relative
to a fully natural Reference state
Vegetation condition
(a composite index)
How do land managers modify structure, composition &
function (i.e. resilience) over time?
LMP that focus on soil
LMP that focus on
native vegetation
Regenerative capacity/ function
Vegetation structure &
Species composition
1. Soil hydrological status
2. Soil physical status
3. Soil chemical status
4. Soil biological status
5. Fire regime
6. Reproductive potential
7. Overstorey structure
8. Understorey structure
9. Overstorey composition
10. Understorey composition
LMP = Land Management Practices
Focussing on 10 key criteria
Common interventions designed to influence
structure, composition & function i.e. resilience
Various interventions:
Land management practices (LMP) are used to influence
ecological building blocks at sites and landscapes by:
• Modifying …
• Removing and replacing …
• Enhancing …
• Restoring …
• Maintaining …
• Improving …
Various purposes:
To achieve the desired mix of ecosystem services (space & time)
VAST-2 is an accounting system for assessing the
transformation of native vegetation
LU = Land Use, LMP = Land Management Practices
VAST Diagnostic attributes
Time
Every vegetated landscape has
been effected by land
management practices since
European settlement
VAST = Vegetation Assets States and Transitions
VIVIVIIIIII0
Native vegetation
cover
Non-native vegetation
cover
Increasing modification caused by use and management
Transitions = trend
Vegetation
thresholds
Reference
for each veg
type (NVIS)
A framework for assessing modification of
native vegetation condition
Condition states
Residual or
unmodified
Naturally
bare
Modified Transformed Replaced -
Adventive
Replaced -
managed
Replaced -
removed
Thackway & Lesslie (2008) Environmental Management, 42, 572-90
Diagnostic attributes of VAST (classes):
• Vegetation structure
• Species composition
• Regenerative capacity
Resilience
threshold
VAST-2 criteria
and indicators
Change & Trends
Thackway & Lesslie (2008)
Environmental Management, 42, 572-90
NB: Input dataset biophysical naturalness reclassified using
VAST framework
/ replaced
/ unmodified
VAST 2009
Veg condition derived
by classifying &
mapping effects of land
management practices
Native
Reporting
change in
condition
using
Vegetation
Types
(NVIS/MVG),
and vegetation
condition
(VAST)
Source: ABARES 2013
Veg type (NVIS/MVG)
NVIS: National Vegetation Information System
MVG: Major Vegetation Groups
VAST
*
* bioregion
How does VAST-2 use metrics
to assess and report
resilience/condition of native
vegetation?
Generate total indices for ‘transformation site’ for each year of the
historical record. Validate using Expert Knowledge
• Compile and collate effects of land
management on criteria (10) and
indicators (22) over time.
• Evaluate impacts on the plant
community over time
Transformation site
• Compile and collate effects of
land management on criteria
(10) and indicators (22)
Reference state/sites
Score all 22 indicators for ‘transformation site’ relative to the
‘reference site’. 0 = major change; 1 = no change
Derive weighted indices for the ‘transformation site’ i.e. regenerative
capacity (55%), vegetation structure (27%) and species composition (18%)
by adding predefined indicators
General process for tracking change over time
using the VAST-2 system
Approximate
year
Source:
Year
LU & LMP Source:
LU & LMP
Effects of land use and
management on criteria and
indicators of vegetation
condition
Source:
Effects
1800
1840
2015
Establish a chronology of data and information of
causes and effects /observed & measured responses
Pre-contact
First contact
Current year
LU = Land Use, LMP = Land Management Practices NB: Accuracy of each observation and
measurement is important
Components
(3)
Criteria
(10)
Description of loss or gain relative to pre settlement indicator reference state
(22)Regenerativecapacity
Fire regime Change in the area /size of fire foot prints
Change in the number of fire starts
Soil hydrology Change in the soil surface water availability
Change in the ground water availability
Soil physical
state
Change in the depth of the A horizon
Change in soil structure.
Soil nutrient
state
Nutrient stress – rundown (deficiency) relative to soil fertility
Nutrient stress – excess (toxicity) relative to soil fertility
Soil biological
state
Change in the recyclers responsible for maintaining soil porosity and nutrient recycling
Change in surface organic matter, soil crusts
Reproductive
potential
Change in the reproductive potential of overstorey structuring species
Change in the reproductive potential of understorey structuring species
Vegetationstructure
Overstorey
structure
Change in the overstorey top height (mean) of the plant community
Change in the overstorey foliage projective cover (mean) of the plant community
Change in the overstorey structural diversity (i.e. a diversity of age classes) of the stand
Understorey
structure
Change in the understorey top height (mean) of the plant community
Change in the understorey ground cover (mean) of the plant community
Change in the understorey structural diversity (i.e. a diversity of age classes) of the plant
Species
Composition
Overstorey
composition
Change in the densities of overstorey species functional groups
Change in no.s of indigenous overstorey species relative to the number of exotic species
Understorey
composition
Change in the densities of understorey species functional groups
Change in no.s of indigenous understorey species relative to the number of exotic species
1
3
10
22
Components
(3)
Vegetation
Transformation
Score
(1)
Criteria
(10)
Vegetation
Structure
(27%)
Overstorey
(3)
Understorey
(3)
Species
Composition
(18%)
(2)
UnderstoreyOverstorey
(2)
Regenerative
Capacity
(55%)
Fire
(2)
Reprod
potent
(2)
Soil
Hydrology
(2)
Biology
(2)
Nutrients
(2)
Structure
(2) Indicators
(22)
VAST-2 – benchmark scoring of the effects of use and
management of native veg (indicators) over time
Importance of dynamics
Assume rainfall is main driver of natural system dynamics
• Period 1900 - 2015
• Average seasonal rainfall (summer, autumn, …)
• Rainfall anomaly is calculated above and below the mean
• Two year running trend line fitted
Seasonal rainfall anomaly (Lat -32.404, Long 152.496)
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
1901
1904
1907
1910
1913
1916
1919
1922
1925
1928
1931
1934
1937
1940
1943
1946
1949
1952
1955
1958
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
Spring
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
1901
1904
1907
1910
1913
1916
1919
1922
1925
1928
1931
1934
1937
1940
1943
1946
1949
1952
1955
1958
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
Winter
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
1901
1904
1907
1910
1913
1916
1919
1922
1925
1928
1931
1934
1937
1940
1943
1946
1949
1952
1955
1958
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
Autumn
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
1901
1904
1907
1910
1913
1916
1919
1922
1925
1928
1931
1934
1937
1940
1943
1946
1949
1952
1955
1958
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
Summer
Source: BOM
• Network of collaborators
• Ecologists, land managers, academics, research scientists,
environmental historians
• Inputs
• Reference state
• Historical record of land use & Land management practices
• Historical record of major natural events e.g. droughts, fires, floods,
cyclones, modelled average rainfall 1900-2015
• Observed interactions e.g. rabbits, sheep and drought
• Observations and quantitative measures of effects of LMP
• Include written, oral, artistic, photographic, long-term ecological
monitoring sites and remote sensing
Resources needed for each site
Assumptions
Changes in LU & LMP
– result in measurable and predictable changes in structure, floristics
& regen capacity
– can be consistently and reliably differentiated from natural events
– have or can be adequately and reliably documented over time
Sequential responses in veg structure, floristics & regen capacity can be
discovered, unpacked and scored over time
Ratings and weightings are ecologically meaningful
Data – information – Decision making i.e. fit for purpose
Case studies VAST-2
Coastal Eucalypt Angophora open forest, Myall Lakes, NSW
Phase 1 Phase 2
Salmon gum woodland, Great Western Woodlands, WA
Chenopod shrubland, Koonamore Station, SA
Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3
year
score%
Pine – Hardwood Subtropical Rainforest, Phillip Island, Sth Pac
Pigs
released
Uninhabited
island
Pigs died
out
Goats, rabbit
and fowl
released
Goats died
out
Rabbits
eradicated
Rabbit
control
commenced
Commenced
passive & active
restoration.
Minimal ecological
monitoring
Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4
Wanaringa
Brigalow woodland, Taroom Shire, Qld
Phase
1
Phase
2
Phase
3
Phase
4
Phase
5
Phase
6
Can the results and the system
be used by decision makers
and land managers to
influence future landscapes?
Transformationscore
Years
1800
2012
Reference
Futures landscape - strategic regeneration,
revegetation & restoration
Modified
Transformed
Replaced/
managed
Residual
Replaced/
adventive
VAST Classes
1850 19501900 2000 2050 2100
Replaced/
removed
Predictions of mature forest
(Bunning’s Enquiry 1974)
Bridge Hill Ridge- post mining restoration
X = 2034
Y = 2054
Z = 2074
X Y Z
Predictions of mature forest
(Bunning’s Enquiry 1974)
Bridge Hill Ridge- post mining restoration
X = 2034
Y = 2054
Z = 2074
X Y Z
Components
(3)
Criteria
(10)
Description of loss or gain relative to pre settlement indicator reference state
(22)Regenerativecapacity
Fire regime Change in the area /size of fire foot prints
Change in the number of fire starts
Soil hydrology Change in the soil surface water availability
Change in the ground water availability
Soil physical
state
Change in the depth of the A horizon
Change in soil structure.
Soil nutrient
state
Nutrient stress – rundown (deficiency) relative to soil fertility
Nutrient stress – excess (toxicity) relative to soil fertility
Soil biological
state
Change in the recyclers responsible for maintaining soil porosity and nutrient recycling
Change in surface organic matter, soil crusts
Reproductive
potential
Change in the reproductive potential of overstorey structuring species
Change in the reproductive potential of understorey structuring species
Vegetationstructure
Overstorey
structure
Change in the overstorey top height (mean) of the plant community
Change in the overstorey foliage projective cover (mean) of the plant community
Change in the overstorey structural diversity (i.e. a diversity of age classes) of the stand
Understorey
structure
Change in the understorey top height (mean) of the plant community
Change in the understorey ground cover (mean) of the plant community
Change in the understorey structural diversity (i.e. a diversity of age classes) of the plant
Species
Composition
Overstorey
composition
Change in the densities of overstorey species functional groups
Change in no.s of indigenous overstorey species relative to the number of exotic species
Understorey
composition
Change in the densities of understorey species functional groups
Change in no.s of indigenous understorey species relative to the number of exotic species
Lessons site vs. landscape
1. Constrain assessments to soil landscape units because this
approximates land manager’s interventions
2. Must account for natural dynamics e.g. flood, fire, cyclone
3. Remote sensing is only part of the solution –
a) Some measures of remote sensing e.g. greenness of tree crowns may not
be directly related to vegetation condition
4. Tracking outcomes of management interventions using remote sensing
a) e.g. environmental plantings and environmental watering requires on-
ground collection of data to calibrate and validate spatial and multi-
temporal imagery
b) Only populate criteria and indicators once imagery has been validated
Assessing condition of native vegetation over time
the bottom line
• Develop a capacity to record and understand
– Land management practices
– Resultant changes & trends in key veg /ecological attributes i.e.
• Structure, composition and function
– Ecosystem dynamics – mainly seasonal patterns rainfall & temperature
• In short
– Regularly tracking the effects management on key veg /ecological
attributes and their interactions with ecosystem dynamics
• Providing a sound basis for demonstrating acceptable ecosystem operating
limits and for sharing learning that is based on adaptive management
Conclusions
• Land managers and ecologists contribute essential environmental data
and information
• There are benefits in using a system to compile and synthesize diverse
source and types of information (quantitative and qualitative)
• Monitoring site/landscape condition over time, contributes to learning
and decision-making by land managers
• Systems thinking enables decision-makers to better understand
ecosystem transformations: degradation, restoration and regeneration
• Telling the resilience story is of interest to the wider community
‘Telling the transformation story’
Residual/ unmodified
Modified
Transformed
Adventive
Replaced and
managed
Organ Pipes National Park, Vic –
ex cropping paddock
Pathways of
landscape
transformation
reflect choices
and drivers
VAST
classes
McDougall and Morgan (2005)
More info & Acknowledgements
More information
http://www.vasttransformations.com/
http://portal.tern.org.au/search
http://aceas-data.science.uq.edu.au/portal/
Acknowledgements
• University of Queensland, Department of Geography Planning and
Environmental Management for ongoing research support
• Many public and private land managers, land management agencies,
consultants and researchers have assisted in the development of VAST & VAST-2

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All is not what it seems - Why integrate land management and ecological literacy over space and time?

  • 1. All is not what it seems - Why integrate land management and ecological literacy over space and time? Richard Thackway Fenner School, Australian National University ENVS 2022/6012, Sustainable Systems: Rural (2015) 14 July 2015
  • 2. Outline • Why is native vegetation important? • All is not what it seems – spatial & temporal change • How land use modifies and fragments native vegetation • Case studies • Lessons • Conclusions and more information
  • 3. To understand landscape transformation we to understand why land managers change the structure, composition and function of native vegetation
  • 4. Historic goals of land managers over time Values and decisions matrix: • Social • Economic • Environmental Intensification Degradation? State @ t1 State @ t2 State @ t3 Development
  • 5. Regulation of hydrological regime Generation of food and fibre Regulation of climate / microclimate Generation of raw materials Recycling of organic matter Creating and regulating habitats Controlling reproduction and dispersal LMP are used to change ecological function to derive multiple benefits (ecosystem services) t1 t2 t3 Time State@t1 State@t2 State@t3 LMP = land management practicesYapp & Thackway 2015
  • 6. Current & future goals of land managers Values and decisions matrix: • Social • Economic • Environmental Extensification Restoration State @ t1 Regeneration State @ t2 State @ t3 Thackway & Lesslie 2006
  • 7. Why is native vegetation extent and condition important? State and Commonwealth Acts and regulations Yapp, Walker & Thackway 2010
  • 8. Understanding the sites and landscapes over time Indigenous land management First explorers Grazing Degreeof resilience/condition Logging Cropping Site 1 Site 2 Site 3 Time Reference state Long term rainfall Long term disturbance e.g. wildfire, cyclones Revegetation Weeds Ferals
  • 9. What are the effects of severe natural events on vegetation condition? • Wildfire • Dust storm • Cyclone • Others events … Diagnostic attributes of VAST: • Vegetation structure • Species composition • Regenerative capacity VAST-2 criteria and indicators Change & Trends
  • 11. Fowlers Gaps, Broken Hill, NSW Photos by Garry Dowling a) & c) Photos by Richard Thackway b) & d) a) b) c) d) 20132009 20132009 Dust storms
  • 12. Savanna forests and woodlands northern Australia 1996 2015 Photo by Jeremy Russell-Smith Photo by William Thackway Cyclones
  • 13. What is the effect of human interventions on vegetation condition? • Pest animals • Grazing • Forestry • Infrastructure • Others … Diagnostic attributes of VAST: • Vegetation structure • Species composition • Regenerative capacity VAST-2 criteria and indicators Change & Trends
  • 14. Photo by Peter Coyne 1740 1906 Phillip Island, South Pacific Photo State Library NSW: JW Beattie Pest animals 1860 already denuded
  • 15. Phillip Island, South Pacific Photos by Peter Coyne a) b) c) d) 1986 2008 1740 1986 Pest animals
  • 16. Photo Richard Thackway Kosciuszko National Park Power lines
  • 17. Photo Richard Thackway Power lines +++Kosciuszko National Park
  • 18. What are the combined effects of natural events and human interventions on vegetation condition? • Complex systems Diagnostic attributes of VAST: • Vegetation structure • Species composition • Regenerative capacity VAST-2 criteria and indicators Change & Trends
  • 19. Photos by Richard Thackway Power lines +++Kosciuszko National Park
  • 20. Grazing +++Goorooyarroo Nature Reserve, ACT Photos by Richard Thackway
  • 21. Understanding the transformation of sites and landscapes over time Indigenous land management First explorers Grazing Degreeof resilience/condition Logging Cropping Site 1 Site 2 Site 3 Time Reference state Long term rainfall Long term disturbance e.g. wildfire, cyclones Revegetation Weeds Ferals
  • 23. Concepts and definitions • Resilience = the capacity of an plant community to recover toward a reference state following a change/s in land management • Change in condition of a plant community (type) is due to effects of land management practices on indicators of: – Vegetation structure – Species composition – Regenerative capacity • Transformation = changes in vegetation condition over time • Condition, resilience and transformation are assessed relative to a fully natural Reference state Vegetation condition (a composite index)
  • 24. How do land managers modify structure, composition & function (i.e. resilience) over time? LMP that focus on soil LMP that focus on native vegetation Regenerative capacity/ function Vegetation structure & Species composition 1. Soil hydrological status 2. Soil physical status 3. Soil chemical status 4. Soil biological status 5. Fire regime 6. Reproductive potential 7. Overstorey structure 8. Understorey structure 9. Overstorey composition 10. Understorey composition LMP = Land Management Practices Focussing on 10 key criteria
  • 25. Common interventions designed to influence structure, composition & function i.e. resilience Various interventions: Land management practices (LMP) are used to influence ecological building blocks at sites and landscapes by: • Modifying … • Removing and replacing … • Enhancing … • Restoring … • Maintaining … • Improving … Various purposes: To achieve the desired mix of ecosystem services (space & time)
  • 26. VAST-2 is an accounting system for assessing the transformation of native vegetation LU = Land Use, LMP = Land Management Practices VAST Diagnostic attributes Time
  • 27. Every vegetated landscape has been effected by land management practices since European settlement
  • 28. VAST = Vegetation Assets States and Transitions VIVIVIIIIII0 Native vegetation cover Non-native vegetation cover Increasing modification caused by use and management Transitions = trend Vegetation thresholds Reference for each veg type (NVIS) A framework for assessing modification of native vegetation condition Condition states Residual or unmodified Naturally bare Modified Transformed Replaced - Adventive Replaced - managed Replaced - removed Thackway & Lesslie (2008) Environmental Management, 42, 572-90 Diagnostic attributes of VAST (classes): • Vegetation structure • Species composition • Regenerative capacity Resilience threshold VAST-2 criteria and indicators Change & Trends
  • 29. Thackway & Lesslie (2008) Environmental Management, 42, 572-90 NB: Input dataset biophysical naturalness reclassified using VAST framework / replaced / unmodified VAST 2009 Veg condition derived by classifying & mapping effects of land management practices Native
  • 30. Reporting change in condition using Vegetation Types (NVIS/MVG), and vegetation condition (VAST) Source: ABARES 2013 Veg type (NVIS/MVG) NVIS: National Vegetation Information System MVG: Major Vegetation Groups VAST * * bioregion
  • 31. How does VAST-2 use metrics to assess and report resilience/condition of native vegetation?
  • 32. Generate total indices for ‘transformation site’ for each year of the historical record. Validate using Expert Knowledge • Compile and collate effects of land management on criteria (10) and indicators (22) over time. • Evaluate impacts on the plant community over time Transformation site • Compile and collate effects of land management on criteria (10) and indicators (22) Reference state/sites Score all 22 indicators for ‘transformation site’ relative to the ‘reference site’. 0 = major change; 1 = no change Derive weighted indices for the ‘transformation site’ i.e. regenerative capacity (55%), vegetation structure (27%) and species composition (18%) by adding predefined indicators General process for tracking change over time using the VAST-2 system
  • 33. Approximate year Source: Year LU & LMP Source: LU & LMP Effects of land use and management on criteria and indicators of vegetation condition Source: Effects 1800 1840 2015 Establish a chronology of data and information of causes and effects /observed & measured responses Pre-contact First contact Current year LU = Land Use, LMP = Land Management Practices NB: Accuracy of each observation and measurement is important
  • 34. Components (3) Criteria (10) Description of loss or gain relative to pre settlement indicator reference state (22)Regenerativecapacity Fire regime Change in the area /size of fire foot prints Change in the number of fire starts Soil hydrology Change in the soil surface water availability Change in the ground water availability Soil physical state Change in the depth of the A horizon Change in soil structure. Soil nutrient state Nutrient stress – rundown (deficiency) relative to soil fertility Nutrient stress – excess (toxicity) relative to soil fertility Soil biological state Change in the recyclers responsible for maintaining soil porosity and nutrient recycling Change in surface organic matter, soil crusts Reproductive potential Change in the reproductive potential of overstorey structuring species Change in the reproductive potential of understorey structuring species Vegetationstructure Overstorey structure Change in the overstorey top height (mean) of the plant community Change in the overstorey foliage projective cover (mean) of the plant community Change in the overstorey structural diversity (i.e. a diversity of age classes) of the stand Understorey structure Change in the understorey top height (mean) of the plant community Change in the understorey ground cover (mean) of the plant community Change in the understorey structural diversity (i.e. a diversity of age classes) of the plant Species Composition Overstorey composition Change in the densities of overstorey species functional groups Change in no.s of indigenous overstorey species relative to the number of exotic species Understorey composition Change in the densities of understorey species functional groups Change in no.s of indigenous understorey species relative to the number of exotic species
  • 36. Importance of dynamics Assume rainfall is main driver of natural system dynamics • Period 1900 - 2015 • Average seasonal rainfall (summer, autumn, …) • Rainfall anomaly is calculated above and below the mean • Two year running trend line fitted
  • 37. Seasonal rainfall anomaly (Lat -32.404, Long 152.496) -2 -1 0 1 2 3 1901 1904 1907 1910 1913 1916 1919 1922 1925 1928 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 Spring -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 1901 1904 1907 1910 1913 1916 1919 1922 1925 1928 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 Winter -4 -2 0 2 4 6 1901 1904 1907 1910 1913 1916 1919 1922 1925 1928 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 Autumn -2 -1 0 1 2 3 1901 1904 1907 1910 1913 1916 1919 1922 1925 1928 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 Summer Source: BOM
  • 38. • Network of collaborators • Ecologists, land managers, academics, research scientists, environmental historians • Inputs • Reference state • Historical record of land use & Land management practices • Historical record of major natural events e.g. droughts, fires, floods, cyclones, modelled average rainfall 1900-2015 • Observed interactions e.g. rabbits, sheep and drought • Observations and quantitative measures of effects of LMP • Include written, oral, artistic, photographic, long-term ecological monitoring sites and remote sensing Resources needed for each site
  • 39. Assumptions Changes in LU & LMP – result in measurable and predictable changes in structure, floristics & regen capacity – can be consistently and reliably differentiated from natural events – have or can be adequately and reliably documented over time Sequential responses in veg structure, floristics & regen capacity can be discovered, unpacked and scored over time Ratings and weightings are ecologically meaningful Data – information – Decision making i.e. fit for purpose
  • 41. Coastal Eucalypt Angophora open forest, Myall Lakes, NSW Phase 1 Phase 2
  • 42. Salmon gum woodland, Great Western Woodlands, WA
  • 43. Chenopod shrubland, Koonamore Station, SA Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3
  • 44. year score% Pine – Hardwood Subtropical Rainforest, Phillip Island, Sth Pac Pigs released Uninhabited island Pigs died out Goats, rabbit and fowl released Goats died out Rabbits eradicated Rabbit control commenced Commenced passive & active restoration. Minimal ecological monitoring Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4
  • 45. Wanaringa Brigalow woodland, Taroom Shire, Qld Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5 Phase 6
  • 46. Can the results and the system be used by decision makers and land managers to influence future landscapes?
  • 47. Transformationscore Years 1800 2012 Reference Futures landscape - strategic regeneration, revegetation & restoration Modified Transformed Replaced/ managed Residual Replaced/ adventive VAST Classes 1850 19501900 2000 2050 2100 Replaced/ removed
  • 48. Predictions of mature forest (Bunning’s Enquiry 1974) Bridge Hill Ridge- post mining restoration X = 2034 Y = 2054 Z = 2074 X Y Z
  • 49. Predictions of mature forest (Bunning’s Enquiry 1974) Bridge Hill Ridge- post mining restoration X = 2034 Y = 2054 Z = 2074 X Y Z
  • 50. Components (3) Criteria (10) Description of loss or gain relative to pre settlement indicator reference state (22)Regenerativecapacity Fire regime Change in the area /size of fire foot prints Change in the number of fire starts Soil hydrology Change in the soil surface water availability Change in the ground water availability Soil physical state Change in the depth of the A horizon Change in soil structure. Soil nutrient state Nutrient stress – rundown (deficiency) relative to soil fertility Nutrient stress – excess (toxicity) relative to soil fertility Soil biological state Change in the recyclers responsible for maintaining soil porosity and nutrient recycling Change in surface organic matter, soil crusts Reproductive potential Change in the reproductive potential of overstorey structuring species Change in the reproductive potential of understorey structuring species Vegetationstructure Overstorey structure Change in the overstorey top height (mean) of the plant community Change in the overstorey foliage projective cover (mean) of the plant community Change in the overstorey structural diversity (i.e. a diversity of age classes) of the stand Understorey structure Change in the understorey top height (mean) of the plant community Change in the understorey ground cover (mean) of the plant community Change in the understorey structural diversity (i.e. a diversity of age classes) of the plant Species Composition Overstorey composition Change in the densities of overstorey species functional groups Change in no.s of indigenous overstorey species relative to the number of exotic species Understorey composition Change in the densities of understorey species functional groups Change in no.s of indigenous understorey species relative to the number of exotic species
  • 51. Lessons site vs. landscape 1. Constrain assessments to soil landscape units because this approximates land manager’s interventions 2. Must account for natural dynamics e.g. flood, fire, cyclone 3. Remote sensing is only part of the solution – a) Some measures of remote sensing e.g. greenness of tree crowns may not be directly related to vegetation condition 4. Tracking outcomes of management interventions using remote sensing a) e.g. environmental plantings and environmental watering requires on- ground collection of data to calibrate and validate spatial and multi- temporal imagery b) Only populate criteria and indicators once imagery has been validated
  • 52. Assessing condition of native vegetation over time the bottom line • Develop a capacity to record and understand – Land management practices – Resultant changes & trends in key veg /ecological attributes i.e. • Structure, composition and function – Ecosystem dynamics – mainly seasonal patterns rainfall & temperature • In short – Regularly tracking the effects management on key veg /ecological attributes and their interactions with ecosystem dynamics • Providing a sound basis for demonstrating acceptable ecosystem operating limits and for sharing learning that is based on adaptive management
  • 53. Conclusions • Land managers and ecologists contribute essential environmental data and information • There are benefits in using a system to compile and synthesize diverse source and types of information (quantitative and qualitative) • Monitoring site/landscape condition over time, contributes to learning and decision-making by land managers • Systems thinking enables decision-makers to better understand ecosystem transformations: degradation, restoration and regeneration • Telling the resilience story is of interest to the wider community
  • 54. ‘Telling the transformation story’ Residual/ unmodified Modified Transformed Adventive Replaced and managed Organ Pipes National Park, Vic – ex cropping paddock Pathways of landscape transformation reflect choices and drivers VAST classes McDougall and Morgan (2005)
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  • 62. More info & Acknowledgements More information http://www.vasttransformations.com/ http://portal.tern.org.au/search http://aceas-data.science.uq.edu.au/portal/ Acknowledgements • University of Queensland, Department of Geography Planning and Environmental Management for ongoing research support • Many public and private land managers, land management agencies, consultants and researchers have assisted in the development of VAST & VAST-2