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Transformation pathways –
modification, removal and replacement, recovery
and restoration of native vegetation –
selected case studies
Richard Thackway
Public lecture presented at Wildbark at Mulligans Flat Nature Reserve,
ACT
27 October 2022
Outline
• Concepts and definitions
• Why & how land managers change their landscapes
• Case studies
• A standardised system for assessing and reporting change
• Site and fine scale landscapes
• Lessons
• Conclusions
Stories, science and frameworks
Models of ecosystem change
Source: Adamson and Fox (1982).
Time
Change
in
vegetation
indicator
Settlement
1000
0
Reference
1925
Occupation
Relaxation
Anthropogenic
change
Net benefit
time
1900 2025
1950
Reference
change
in
vegetation
indicator
or
index
1850 1875 1975 2000
A model of ecosystem change
Modified from Hamilton, Brown & Nolan (2008). FWPA PRO7.1050. pg 18
Land use impacts on biodiversity and Life Cycle Analysis
Estimated pre-1750 Major Vegetation Groups
NVIS 2007
VAST = Vegetation Assets States and Transitions
NVIS = National Vegetation Information System
VI
V
IV
III
II
I
0
Native vegetation
cover
Non-native vegetation
cover
Increasing modification caused by use and management
Transitions = trend
Vegetation
thresholds
Reference for
each veg type
(NVIS)
A framework for assessing & reporting
changes in plant communities
Condition states
Residual or
unmodified
Naturally
bare
Modified Transformed Replaced -
Adventive
Replaced -
managed
Replaced -
removed
Thackway & Lesslie (2008) Environmental
Management, 42, 572-90
Diagnostic attributes of VAST states:
• Vegetation structure
• Species composition
• Regenerative capacity
NVIS
Condition of plant communities – a snap shot
Thackway & Lesslie (2008)
Environmental Management, 42, 572-90
NB: Input dataset biophysical naturalness reclassified using
VAST framework
/ replaced
/ unmodified
VAST 2009
Native
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
80.00%
90.00%
100.00%
NVIS MVG and Condition classes
VAST 6
VAST 5
VAST 3
VAST 2
VAST 1
VAST 0
2008
Land managers affect native veg condition
Process:
Land management regimes /practices are used to influence ecological
function and vegetation at sites and the landscape by:
• Removing and replacing
• Modifying
• Enhancing
• Restoring
• Improving
• Maintaining
Purpose/s:
To deliver an ecosystem service or mix of services (space & time)
Regulation ofhydrologicalregime
Generation offood and fibre
Regulation ofclimate / microclimate
Generation ofraw materials
Recyclingoforganic matter
Creating and regulatinghabitats
Controllingreproductionand dispersal
Why transform? - Multiple benefits (ecosystem services)
Regulation ofhydrologicalregime
Generation offood and fibre
Regulation ofclimate / microclimate
Generation ofraw materials
Recyclingoforganic matter
Creating and regulatinghabitats
Controllingreproductionand dispersal
Why transform? - Multiple benefits (ecosystem services)
1925
Occupation
Relaxation
Anthropogenic
change
Net benefit
time
1900 2025
1950
Reference
change
in
vegetation
indicator
or
index
1850 1875 1975 2000
A model of ecosystem change
Modified from Hamilton, Brown & Nolan (2008). FWPA PRO7.1050. pg 18
Land use impacts on biodiversity and Life Cycle Analysis
Case studies
Rocky Creek Dam, Lismore NSW
Reference state: Sub-tropical rainforest on basalt
Source: Ralph Woodford
Rocky Creek Dam, Lismore NSW
2022
km
0 1 2 3 4 5
Morton NP, NSW
Reference state: Wet and dry heaths on sandstone Source: CSIRO colleages
2014
Wet and dry heaths –
Tianjara Defence Training Area, Morton NP
km
0 1 2 3 4 5
1981
Morton NP, NSW Defence Training Area
‘T.G.B. Osborn Veg Res’, Koonamore Station, SA
Reference state: Low open woodland on hard loam soils a Myoporum platycarpum (false sandalwood)
and Alectryon oleifolius (bullock bush, rosewood) Understorey of low chenopod shrubland
Source: Russell Sinclair
Uni SA -
Quadrat 100
‘T.G.B. Osborn Veg Res’, Koonamore Station, SA
km
0 1 2 3 4
Quadrat Q100
Outside the
reserve
Inside the
reserve
2013
Uni SA
Quadrat Q100
Inside the
reserve
Site has been monitored ~annually for almost 100 years
‘Wirilda’, Harrogate, SA
Source: Brendan Lay
Reference state: Open woodland River red gum (Eucalyptus camaldulensis), Blue Gum
(E. leucoxylon) – Drooping sheoak (Allocasuarina verticillata)
‘Wirilda’, Harrogate, SA
1973
Source: Brendan Lay
‘Wirilda’, Harrogate, SA
2017
km
0 1 2 3 4 5
Source: Keith McDonald & Jeanette Kemp
North Molle Island, Qld
Reference state: Tussock grassland to closed tussock grassland: Themeda triandra
and/or Imperata cylindrica and/or Chionachne cyathopoda (RE 8.12.13) recently
colonised by Timonius timon (tree ~8m)
1945 2021
km
0 1 2 3 4 5
North Molle Island, Qld
Source: Keith McDonald & Jeanette Kemp
Mulligans Flat Nature Reserve – site 1
Reference state: Grassy box woodland Eucalyptus melliodora - E. blakelyi (PCT-ACT16)
Mulligans Flat Nature Reserve – site 1
km
0 1 2 3 4 5
Goorooyarroo Nature Reserve - site3
Reference state: Grassy /shrub forest (PCT-ACT25)
Goorooyarroo Nature Reserve - site3
2016
km
0 1 2 3 4 5
How does the framework work?
1925
Occupation
Relaxation
Anthropogenic
change
Net benefit
time
1900 2025
1950
Reference
change
in
vegetation
indicator
or
index
1850 1875 1975 2000
A model of ecosystem change
Modified from Hamilton, Brown & Nolan (2008). FWPA PRO7.1050. pg 18
Land use impacts on biodiversity and Life Cycle Analysis
Definitions
• Transformation = changes to vegetation condition over time
• Change in a plant community type due to effects of land
management regimes/practices on:
– Structure
– Composition
– Ecological function
• Resilience = capacity of a plant community to recover toward
a reference state following land use change relative to
unmodified state
• Condition, resilience and transformation are assessed relative
to fully natural (unmodified) a reference state
Vegetation condition
components
Map of 1st nations languages
https://aiatsis.gov.au/explore/map-indigenous-australia
Reference state = Unmodified
Source: Carron 1987 integrated with IBRA sub-regions and regions
Land managers can change 10 key criteria that affect
condition of plant communities
Soil
Vegetation
Ecological function
Vegetation structure &
Species composition
1. Soil hydrological status
2. Soil physical status
3. Soil chemical status
4. Soil biological status
5. Resilience to major natural events
6. Reproductive potential
7. Overstorey structure
8. Understorey structure
9. Overstorey composition
10. Understorey composition
Generate total indices for ‘transformation site’ for each year of the
historical record. Validate using Expert Knowledge
• Compile and collate effects of land
management on criteria (10) and
indicators (22) over time.
• Evaluate impacts on the plant
community over time
Transformation site
• Compile and collate effects of
land management on criteria
(10) and indicators (22)
Reference state/sites
Score all 22 indicators for ‘transformation site’ relative to the
‘reference site’. 0 = major change; 1 = no change
Derive weighted indices for the ‘transformation site’ i.e. regenerative
capacity (55%), vegetation structure (27%) and species composition (18%)
by adding predefined indicators
General process for tracking change over time
Condition
components
(3)
Attribute groups
(10)
Description of loss or gain relative to pre settlement indicator reference state
(22)
Ecological
function
Resilience -
major natural
disturbances
Area /size of major natural events
Number of major natural events
Soil hydrology Soil surface water availability
Ground water availability
Soil physical
state
Depth of the A horizon
Soil structure
Soil nutrient
state
Nutrient stress – rundown (deficiency) relative to soil fertility
Nutrient stress – excess (toxicity) relative to soil fertility
Soil biological
state
Recyclers responsible for maintaining soil porosity and nutrient recycling
Surface organic matter, soil crusts
Reproductive
potential
Reproductive potential of overstorey structuring species
Reproductive potential of understorey structuring species
Vegetation
structure
Overstorey
structure
Overstorey top height (mean) of the plant community
Overstorey foliage projective cover (mean) of the plant community
Overstorey structural diversity (i.e. a diversity of age classes) of the stand
Understorey
structure
Understorey top height (mean) of the plant community
Understorey ground cover (mean) of the plant community
Understorey structural diversity (i.e. a diversity of age classes) of the plant
Species
Composition
Overstorey
composition
Densities of overstorey species functional groups
Relative number of overstorey species (richness) of indigenous to exotic species
Understorey
composition
Densities of understorey species functional groups
Relative number of understorey species (richness) of indigenous to exotic species
1
3
10
22
Diagnostic
attributes
Vegetation
Transformation
score
Attribute
groups
Vegetation
Structure
(27%)
Overstorey
(3)
Understorey
(3)
Species
Composition
(18%)
(2)
Understorey
Overstorey
(2)
Ecological Function
(55%)
Event
Resilience
(2)
Reprod
potent
(2)
Soil
Hydrology
(2)
Biology
(2)
Nutrients
(2)
Physical
(2) Indicators
Hierarchy of information
Synthesising information using a hierarchy
• Level 1: Scores over time
• Level 2: Components
• Level 3: Criteria
• Level 4: Indicators
• Level 5: Field measures/observations (Direct) and Expert /inference
models (Indirect)
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
1901
1904
1907
1910
1913
1916
1919
1922
1925
1928
1931
1934
1937
1940
1943
1946
1949
1952
1955
1958
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
Summer
Seasonal rainfall anomaly (Lat -32.404, Long 152.496)
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
1901
1904
1907
1910
1913
1916
1919
1922
1925
1928
1931
1934
1937
1940
1943
1946
1949
1952
1955
1958
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
Spring
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
1901
1904
1907
1910
1913
1916
1919
1922
1925
1928
1931
1934
1937
1940
1943
1946
1949
1952
1955
1958
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
Winter
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
1901
1904
1907
1910
1913
1916
1919
1922
1925
1928
1931
1934
1937
1940
1943
1946
1949
1952
1955
1958
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
Autumn
Source: BOM
~ Shallower soils
with lower SOM
Ridge
Mid-slope
Lower slope
~ Moderately
deeper soils
~ Deeper soils
with higher SOM
Soil landscape units – toposequence
Upper slope
SOM = Soil organic matter
https://www.sciencefacts.net/soil-horizons.html
Soil profile
• Must establish a network of trusted collaborators
• Ecologists, land managers, academics, research scientists,
environmental historians, government agencies
• Inputs
• Reference state
• Historical record of land use & Land management practices
• Historical record of major natural events e.g. droughts, fires, floods,
cyclones, average rainfall 1900-2012
• Observed interactions e.g. rabbits, sheep and drought
• Observations and direct measurements of effects
• Include written, oral, artistic, photographic and time series remote sensing
• Long term ecological monitoring sites
Lessons: Resources needed at site level
Lessons: Scaling up from site to the landscape
1. Constrain assessments to soil landscape units because this
approximates management regimes of the land manager
2. Must understand monthly and seasonal rainfall
3. Remote sensing is only part of the solution –
a) Some measures of remote sensing e.g. greenness of crown health may not be
directly related to vegetation condition
4. Tracking outcomes of management interventions
a) Must collect on-ground data and have a model/s for linking change to datasets
derived from remote sensing
Lessons: Importance of dynamics
Assume rainfall is main driver of natural system dynamics
• Period 1900 – 2013 – also BOM sites
• Average seasonal rainfall (summer, autumn, …)
• Rainfall anomaly is calculated above and below the mean
Certainty level standards used to compile a
systematic chronology of records
Certainty
level
standards
Spatial precision
(Scale)
Temporal precision
(Year of observation)
Attribute accuracy
(Land use, land
management practices,
effects on condition)
HIGH
"Definite”
Reliable direct
quantitative data.
Code: 1
Reliable direct
quantitative data.
Code: 4
Reliable direct
quantitative data.
Code: 7
MEDIUM
"Probable
"
Direct (with
qualifications) or strong
indirect data.
Code: 2
Direct (with
qualifications) or strong
indirect data.
Code: 5
Direct (with
qualifications) or strong
indirect data.
Code: 8
LOW
"Possible"
Limited qualitative and
possibly contradictory
observations. More
data needed.
Code: 3
Limited qualitative and
possibly contradictory
observations. More
data needed.
Code: 6
Limited qualitative and
possibly contradictory
observations. More
data needed.
Code: 9
Conclusions
• The framework:
– Reference states published by govt agencies for plant community types are
not always helpful
– Provides a basis for collating ecological data information from qualitative
and quantitative sources (spatial, temporal)
– Assists in collating a systematic chronology from multiple sources
– Helps integrate complex sources of information on land management
practices/regimes and their ecological responses
– Helps decision makers understand land use impacts at site and landscape
levels
– Can inform discussions about how a landscape might be restored/
regenerated
– Provides an accounting tool for reporting change and trend in the
transformation of vegetation types at sites - used in
• National State of the Forests Report (2013)
• Regional Environmental Accounts (Wentworth Group of Concerned Scientists
2015)
Acknowledgements
• Many public and private land managers, land management
agencies, consultants and researchers have assisted in the
development of the framework and with case studies
Cumberland SF, NSW Case study
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
scores
years
Cumberland State Forest _comparts_3a7a7b7c
Ecological Function
Vegetation Structure
Species Composition
Transformation score
NSW, SB Bioregion, Cumberland SF, ex-comp 3a, 7a, 7b, 7c
Reference pre-European: Sydney Blue Gum High Forest
Commenced
managing
area for
recreation.
Weed control.
Arboretum
abandoned
Cleared &
sown to
improved
pasture for
grazing &
orchard
Commenced
grazing
native
pastures
Dharug
indigenous
people
manage the
area
Area
gazetted as
State Forest,
commenced
planting
arboretum
Area
logged for
building
houses
and fences
Commenced
managing area
as a future
production
forest. Weed
control
Explorers
traverse
the area
and site
selected
Ceased
grazing.
Area
purchased
as a future
working
forest
Published
2012
0%
20%
40%
60%
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
Ecological Function
0%
10%
20%
30%
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
Vegetation Structure
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
Species Composition
NSW, SB Bioregion, Cumberland SF, ex-comp 3a, 7a, 7b, 7c
Reference pre-European: Sydney Blue Gum High Forest
Components
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
Resilience - major disturbances
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
Soil Hydology
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
Soil Physical
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
Soil Nutrients
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
Soil Biology
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
Reproductive Potential
Criteria #1 Criteria #2 Criteria #3
Criteria #4 Criteria #5 Criteria #6
NSW, SB Bioregion, Cumberland SF, ex-comp 3a, 7a, 7b, 7c
Vegetation structure
Indicators:
#13: Height
#14: Foliage cover
#15: Age structure
Indicators:
#16: Height
#17: Foliage cover
#18: Age structure
Criteria #7
Criteria #8
NSW, SB Bioregion, Cumberland SF, Transect 2 (ex-comp 3a, 7a, 7b, 7c)
Species composition
Criteria #9
Criteria #10
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
scores
years
Cumberland State Forest _comparts_3a7a7b7c
Ecological Function
Vegetation Structure
Species Composition
Transformation score
NSW, SB Bioregion, Cumberland SF, ex-comp 3a, 7a, 7b, 7c
Reference pre-European: Sydney Blue Gum High Forest
Commenced
managing
area for
recreation.
Weed control.
Arboretum
abandoned
Cleared &
sown to
improved
pasture for
grazing &
orchard
Commenced
grazing
native
pastures
Dharug
indigenous
people
manage the
area
Area
gazetted as
State Forest,
commenced
planting
arboretum
Area
logged for
building
houses
and fences
Commenced
managing area
as a future
production
forest. Weed
control
Explorers
traverse
the area
and site
selected
Ceased
grazing.
Area
purchased
as a future
working
forest
Published
2012

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Transformation Pathways - The recovery and restoration of native vegetation.

  • 1. Transformation pathways – modification, removal and replacement, recovery and restoration of native vegetation – selected case studies Richard Thackway Public lecture presented at Wildbark at Mulligans Flat Nature Reserve, ACT 27 October 2022
  • 2. Outline • Concepts and definitions • Why & how land managers change their landscapes • Case studies • A standardised system for assessing and reporting change • Site and fine scale landscapes • Lessons • Conclusions
  • 3. Stories, science and frameworks
  • 4. Models of ecosystem change Source: Adamson and Fox (1982). Time Change in vegetation indicator Settlement 1000 0 Reference
  • 5. 1925 Occupation Relaxation Anthropogenic change Net benefit time 1900 2025 1950 Reference change in vegetation indicator or index 1850 1875 1975 2000 A model of ecosystem change Modified from Hamilton, Brown & Nolan (2008). FWPA PRO7.1050. pg 18 Land use impacts on biodiversity and Life Cycle Analysis
  • 6. Estimated pre-1750 Major Vegetation Groups NVIS 2007
  • 7. VAST = Vegetation Assets States and Transitions NVIS = National Vegetation Information System VI V IV III II I 0 Native vegetation cover Non-native vegetation cover Increasing modification caused by use and management Transitions = trend Vegetation thresholds Reference for each veg type (NVIS) A framework for assessing & reporting changes in plant communities Condition states Residual or unmodified Naturally bare Modified Transformed Replaced - Adventive Replaced - managed Replaced - removed Thackway & Lesslie (2008) Environmental Management, 42, 572-90 Diagnostic attributes of VAST states: • Vegetation structure • Species composition • Regenerative capacity NVIS
  • 8. Condition of plant communities – a snap shot Thackway & Lesslie (2008) Environmental Management, 42, 572-90 NB: Input dataset biophysical naturalness reclassified using VAST framework / replaced / unmodified VAST 2009 Native
  • 9. 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00% 70.00% 80.00% 90.00% 100.00% NVIS MVG and Condition classes VAST 6 VAST 5 VAST 3 VAST 2 VAST 1 VAST 0 2008
  • 10. Land managers affect native veg condition Process: Land management regimes /practices are used to influence ecological function and vegetation at sites and the landscape by: • Removing and replacing • Modifying • Enhancing • Restoring • Improving • Maintaining Purpose/s: To deliver an ecosystem service or mix of services (space & time)
  • 11. Regulation ofhydrologicalregime Generation offood and fibre Regulation ofclimate / microclimate Generation ofraw materials Recyclingoforganic matter Creating and regulatinghabitats Controllingreproductionand dispersal Why transform? - Multiple benefits (ecosystem services)
  • 12. Regulation ofhydrologicalregime Generation offood and fibre Regulation ofclimate / microclimate Generation ofraw materials Recyclingoforganic matter Creating and regulatinghabitats Controllingreproductionand dispersal Why transform? - Multiple benefits (ecosystem services)
  • 13. 1925 Occupation Relaxation Anthropogenic change Net benefit time 1900 2025 1950 Reference change in vegetation indicator or index 1850 1875 1975 2000 A model of ecosystem change Modified from Hamilton, Brown & Nolan (2008). FWPA PRO7.1050. pg 18 Land use impacts on biodiversity and Life Cycle Analysis
  • 15. Rocky Creek Dam, Lismore NSW Reference state: Sub-tropical rainforest on basalt Source: Ralph Woodford
  • 16.
  • 17. Rocky Creek Dam, Lismore NSW 2022 km 0 1 2 3 4 5
  • 18.
  • 19. Morton NP, NSW Reference state: Wet and dry heaths on sandstone Source: CSIRO colleages
  • 20. 2014 Wet and dry heaths – Tianjara Defence Training Area, Morton NP km 0 1 2 3 4 5
  • 21. 1981 Morton NP, NSW Defence Training Area
  • 22.
  • 23. ‘T.G.B. Osborn Veg Res’, Koonamore Station, SA Reference state: Low open woodland on hard loam soils a Myoporum platycarpum (false sandalwood) and Alectryon oleifolius (bullock bush, rosewood) Understorey of low chenopod shrubland Source: Russell Sinclair
  • 24.
  • 25. Uni SA - Quadrat 100 ‘T.G.B. Osborn Veg Res’, Koonamore Station, SA km 0 1 2 3 4
  • 27. Uni SA Quadrat Q100 Inside the reserve Site has been monitored ~annually for almost 100 years
  • 28.
  • 29. ‘Wirilda’, Harrogate, SA Source: Brendan Lay Reference state: Open woodland River red gum (Eucalyptus camaldulensis), Blue Gum (E. leucoxylon) – Drooping sheoak (Allocasuarina verticillata)
  • 32.
  • 33. Source: Keith McDonald & Jeanette Kemp North Molle Island, Qld Reference state: Tussock grassland to closed tussock grassland: Themeda triandra and/or Imperata cylindrica and/or Chionachne cyathopoda (RE 8.12.13) recently colonised by Timonius timon (tree ~8m)
  • 34. 1945 2021 km 0 1 2 3 4 5 North Molle Island, Qld Source: Keith McDonald & Jeanette Kemp
  • 35.
  • 36. Mulligans Flat Nature Reserve – site 1 Reference state: Grassy box woodland Eucalyptus melliodora - E. blakelyi (PCT-ACT16)
  • 37. Mulligans Flat Nature Reserve – site 1 km 0 1 2 3 4 5
  • 38.
  • 39. Goorooyarroo Nature Reserve - site3 Reference state: Grassy /shrub forest (PCT-ACT25)
  • 40. Goorooyarroo Nature Reserve - site3 2016 km 0 1 2 3 4 5
  • 41.
  • 42. How does the framework work?
  • 43. 1925 Occupation Relaxation Anthropogenic change Net benefit time 1900 2025 1950 Reference change in vegetation indicator or index 1850 1875 1975 2000 A model of ecosystem change Modified from Hamilton, Brown & Nolan (2008). FWPA PRO7.1050. pg 18 Land use impacts on biodiversity and Life Cycle Analysis
  • 44. Definitions • Transformation = changes to vegetation condition over time • Change in a plant community type due to effects of land management regimes/practices on: – Structure – Composition – Ecological function • Resilience = capacity of a plant community to recover toward a reference state following land use change relative to unmodified state • Condition, resilience and transformation are assessed relative to fully natural (unmodified) a reference state Vegetation condition components
  • 45. Map of 1st nations languages https://aiatsis.gov.au/explore/map-indigenous-australia
  • 46. Reference state = Unmodified Source: Carron 1987 integrated with IBRA sub-regions and regions
  • 47. Land managers can change 10 key criteria that affect condition of plant communities Soil Vegetation Ecological function Vegetation structure & Species composition 1. Soil hydrological status 2. Soil physical status 3. Soil chemical status 4. Soil biological status 5. Resilience to major natural events 6. Reproductive potential 7. Overstorey structure 8. Understorey structure 9. Overstorey composition 10. Understorey composition
  • 48. Generate total indices for ‘transformation site’ for each year of the historical record. Validate using Expert Knowledge • Compile and collate effects of land management on criteria (10) and indicators (22) over time. • Evaluate impacts on the plant community over time Transformation site • Compile and collate effects of land management on criteria (10) and indicators (22) Reference state/sites Score all 22 indicators for ‘transformation site’ relative to the ‘reference site’. 0 = major change; 1 = no change Derive weighted indices for the ‘transformation site’ i.e. regenerative capacity (55%), vegetation structure (27%) and species composition (18%) by adding predefined indicators General process for tracking change over time
  • 49. Condition components (3) Attribute groups (10) Description of loss or gain relative to pre settlement indicator reference state (22) Ecological function Resilience - major natural disturbances Area /size of major natural events Number of major natural events Soil hydrology Soil surface water availability Ground water availability Soil physical state Depth of the A horizon Soil structure Soil nutrient state Nutrient stress – rundown (deficiency) relative to soil fertility Nutrient stress – excess (toxicity) relative to soil fertility Soil biological state Recyclers responsible for maintaining soil porosity and nutrient recycling Surface organic matter, soil crusts Reproductive potential Reproductive potential of overstorey structuring species Reproductive potential of understorey structuring species Vegetation structure Overstorey structure Overstorey top height (mean) of the plant community Overstorey foliage projective cover (mean) of the plant community Overstorey structural diversity (i.e. a diversity of age classes) of the stand Understorey structure Understorey top height (mean) of the plant community Understorey ground cover (mean) of the plant community Understorey structural diversity (i.e. a diversity of age classes) of the plant Species Composition Overstorey composition Densities of overstorey species functional groups Relative number of overstorey species (richness) of indigenous to exotic species Understorey composition Densities of understorey species functional groups Relative number of understorey species (richness) of indigenous to exotic species
  • 51. Synthesising information using a hierarchy • Level 1: Scores over time • Level 2: Components • Level 3: Criteria • Level 4: Indicators • Level 5: Field measures/observations (Direct) and Expert /inference models (Indirect)
  • 52. -2 -1 0 1 2 3 1901 1904 1907 1910 1913 1916 1919 1922 1925 1928 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 Summer Seasonal rainfall anomaly (Lat -32.404, Long 152.496) -2 -1 0 1 2 3 1901 1904 1907 1910 1913 1916 1919 1922 1925 1928 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 Spring -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 1901 1904 1907 1910 1913 1916 1919 1922 1925 1928 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 Winter -4 -2 0 2 4 6 1901 1904 1907 1910 1913 1916 1919 1922 1925 1928 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 Autumn Source: BOM
  • 53. ~ Shallower soils with lower SOM Ridge Mid-slope Lower slope ~ Moderately deeper soils ~ Deeper soils with higher SOM Soil landscape units – toposequence Upper slope SOM = Soil organic matter
  • 55. • Must establish a network of trusted collaborators • Ecologists, land managers, academics, research scientists, environmental historians, government agencies • Inputs • Reference state • Historical record of land use & Land management practices • Historical record of major natural events e.g. droughts, fires, floods, cyclones, average rainfall 1900-2012 • Observed interactions e.g. rabbits, sheep and drought • Observations and direct measurements of effects • Include written, oral, artistic, photographic and time series remote sensing • Long term ecological monitoring sites Lessons: Resources needed at site level
  • 56. Lessons: Scaling up from site to the landscape 1. Constrain assessments to soil landscape units because this approximates management regimes of the land manager 2. Must understand monthly and seasonal rainfall 3. Remote sensing is only part of the solution – a) Some measures of remote sensing e.g. greenness of crown health may not be directly related to vegetation condition 4. Tracking outcomes of management interventions a) Must collect on-ground data and have a model/s for linking change to datasets derived from remote sensing
  • 57. Lessons: Importance of dynamics Assume rainfall is main driver of natural system dynamics • Period 1900 – 2013 – also BOM sites • Average seasonal rainfall (summer, autumn, …) • Rainfall anomaly is calculated above and below the mean
  • 58. Certainty level standards used to compile a systematic chronology of records Certainty level standards Spatial precision (Scale) Temporal precision (Year of observation) Attribute accuracy (Land use, land management practices, effects on condition) HIGH "Definite” Reliable direct quantitative data. Code: 1 Reliable direct quantitative data. Code: 4 Reliable direct quantitative data. Code: 7 MEDIUM "Probable " Direct (with qualifications) or strong indirect data. Code: 2 Direct (with qualifications) or strong indirect data. Code: 5 Direct (with qualifications) or strong indirect data. Code: 8 LOW "Possible" Limited qualitative and possibly contradictory observations. More data needed. Code: 3 Limited qualitative and possibly contradictory observations. More data needed. Code: 6 Limited qualitative and possibly contradictory observations. More data needed. Code: 9
  • 59. Conclusions • The framework: – Reference states published by govt agencies for plant community types are not always helpful – Provides a basis for collating ecological data information from qualitative and quantitative sources (spatial, temporal) – Assists in collating a systematic chronology from multiple sources – Helps integrate complex sources of information on land management practices/regimes and their ecological responses – Helps decision makers understand land use impacts at site and landscape levels – Can inform discussions about how a landscape might be restored/ regenerated – Provides an accounting tool for reporting change and trend in the transformation of vegetation types at sites - used in • National State of the Forests Report (2013) • Regional Environmental Accounts (Wentworth Group of Concerned Scientists 2015)
  • 60. Acknowledgements • Many public and private land managers, land management agencies, consultants and researchers have assisted in the development of the framework and with case studies
  • 61.
  • 62. Cumberland SF, NSW Case study
  • 63. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 scores years Cumberland State Forest _comparts_3a7a7b7c Ecological Function Vegetation Structure Species Composition Transformation score NSW, SB Bioregion, Cumberland SF, ex-comp 3a, 7a, 7b, 7c Reference pre-European: Sydney Blue Gum High Forest Commenced managing area for recreation. Weed control. Arboretum abandoned Cleared & sown to improved pasture for grazing & orchard Commenced grazing native pastures Dharug indigenous people manage the area Area gazetted as State Forest, commenced planting arboretum Area logged for building houses and fences Commenced managing area as a future production forest. Weed control Explorers traverse the area and site selected Ceased grazing. Area purchased as a future working forest Published 2012
  • 64. 0% 20% 40% 60% 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 Ecological Function 0% 10% 20% 30% 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 Vegetation Structure 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 Species Composition NSW, SB Bioregion, Cumberland SF, ex-comp 3a, 7a, 7b, 7c Reference pre-European: Sydney Blue Gum High Forest Components
  • 65. 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 Resilience - major disturbances 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 Soil Hydology 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 Soil Physical 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 Soil Nutrients 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 Soil Biology 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 Reproductive Potential Criteria #1 Criteria #2 Criteria #3 Criteria #4 Criteria #5 Criteria #6
  • 66. NSW, SB Bioregion, Cumberland SF, ex-comp 3a, 7a, 7b, 7c Vegetation structure Indicators: #13: Height #14: Foliage cover #15: Age structure Indicators: #16: Height #17: Foliage cover #18: Age structure Criteria #7 Criteria #8
  • 67. NSW, SB Bioregion, Cumberland SF, Transect 2 (ex-comp 3a, 7a, 7b, 7c) Species composition Criteria #9 Criteria #10
  • 68. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 scores years Cumberland State Forest _comparts_3a7a7b7c Ecological Function Vegetation Structure Species Composition Transformation score NSW, SB Bioregion, Cumberland SF, ex-comp 3a, 7a, 7b, 7c Reference pre-European: Sydney Blue Gum High Forest Commenced managing area for recreation. Weed control. Arboretum abandoned Cleared & sown to improved pasture for grazing & orchard Commenced grazing native pastures Dharug indigenous people manage the area Area gazetted as State Forest, commenced planting arboretum Area logged for building houses and fences Commenced managing area as a future production forest. Weed control Explorers traverse the area and site selected Ceased grazing. Area purchased as a future working forest Published 2012

Editor's Notes

  1. Source: Russell Sinclair