- Gold and silver prices moved higher on the MCX, achieving short-term targets, but gold failed to sustain above 26770 levels and silver above 36400 levels. - Copper and crude oil prices drifted lower due to concerns over China's property sector and speculation that OPEC will not cut output. - Natural gas prices fell after rallying the previous day but remained above 255 support levels on expectations of increased heating demand.

1. 19th Nov’14 Aaj Ka Trend
Bullions MCX Gold Dec Hourly Chart
Technical View: As expected, prices moved higher achieving both the short term targets. We now expect prices could have completed wave ‘c’ of the higher degree near 26770 levels which is also the 61.8 % retracement level of the previous down move from 27670 – 25150 levels. as long as 26770 levels are capped on higher side prices could drift lower towards 26300 levels. MCX Silver Dec Hourly Chart
Technical View: Prices moved higher achieving out both the short term target levels. From the above chart, we can see that prices have failed to move above the horizontal resistance level of 36400 levels and inched lower. The momentum indicator, RSI has made negative divergence which indicates weakness in prices. For now as long as 36400 is capped on higher side outlook remains neutral to bearish for the test of 35500/35200 levels.

2. 19th Nov’14 Aaj Ka Trend
Fundamental News:
• Gold prices traded above the key $1,200-level for the first time in more than two-weeks on Tuesday, before pulling back slightly as investors locked in gains.
• On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for December delivery rose by as much as 1.71% to hit a daily high of $1,204.10 a troy ounce, the most since October 30.
Pivot Levels for the Day:
S1
S2
S3
Pivot
R1
R2
R3
Gold
26401
26205
25823
26587
26783
26969
27351
Silver
35517
35229
34510
35948
36236
36667
37386
Recommendation:
Gold
Sell
Silver
Neutral

3. 19th Nov’14 Aaj Ka Trend
Base Metals MCX Copper Nov Hourly Chart
Technical Views: Prices initially moved little above 415 but failed to move above that and drifted lower. In the second half of the trading session prices have given close below the descending triangle formation formed on the hourly timeframe. The momentum indicator, RSI has also given bearish range shift on hourly chart which suggest weakness in prices. For now we expect prices can test 407/406 levels while upside remain capped at 413 levels.
MCX Aluminum Nov Hourly Chart
MCX Lead Nov Hourly Chart
MCX Nickel Nov Hourly Chart
MCX Zinc Nov 15 Mins Chart

4. 19th Nov’14 Aaj Ka Trend
Fundamental News:
• Copper futures edged lower on Tuesday, as mounting concerns over the health of China's property sector dampened appetite for the red metal.
• On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper for December delivery shed 0.8 cents, or 0.26% to trade at $3.032 a pound during European morning hours.
Pivot Levels for the Day:
S1
S2
S3
Pivot
R1
R2
R3
Copper
406.9
404.6
398.1
411.1
413.4
417.6
424.1
Aluminum
124.2
123.4
121.6
125.3
126.0
127.1
129.0
Lead
123.9
123.1
121.2
125.0
125.8
126.9
128.8
Nickel
953.8
945.6
924.6
966.6
974.8
987.6
1008.6
Zinc
138.0
137.4
135.9
138.8
139.5
140.3
141.7
Recommendation:
Copper
Sell
Aluminum
Sell Below 124.70
Lead
Neutral
Nickel
Neutral
Zinc
Sell

5. 19th Nov’14 Aaj Ka Trend
Energy MCX Crude Nov Daily Chart:
Technical Views: In the first half of the trading session prices moved higher made its intraday high of 4723 but failed to give hourly close above 4710 levels and drifted lower below 4600 levels. Prices are trading near 61.8% retracement level of the previous up move from 4522 – 4727 levels. We now remain cautious as long as prices are trading near the mentioned levels as the momentum indicator, RSI is also taking support near 40 levels. MCX Natural Gas Oct Hourly Chart:
Technical Views: Initially prices moved higher achieving first short term target of 266 which happens to be the 61.8% retracement level of the down move from 279 – 244 levels and moved lower. It can be observed that prices have moved higher in the last hour of the trading session and RSI has formed positive reversal which suggests strength in prices. For now, as long as 255 levels are protected on down side prices can head towards 267/270 levels.

6. 19th Nov’14 Aaj Ka Trend
Fundamental News: .
• Oil futures declined on Tuesday, amid speculation the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will not cut output to support prices when it meets later this month.
• On the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil for January delivery lost 60 cents, or 0.76%, to trade at $78.71 a barrel.
• London-traded Brent futures fell to a four-year low of $76.76 a barrel on November 14.
• U.S. natural gas prices were under pressure during early U.S. morning hours on Tuesday, as investors cashed out of the market to lock in gains from the previous session's 8% rally.
• On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas for delivery in December fell 10.0 cents, or 2.3%, to trade at $4.241 per million British thermal units during U.S. morning hours.
• A day earlier, natural gas prices soared 32.1 cents, or 7.99%, to settle at $4.341 per million British thermal units, after a blast of cold air shot across the U.S. and fueled expectations for increased heating demand.
Pivot Levels for the Day:
S1
S2
S3
Pivot
R1
R2
R3
Crude
4555
4503
4367
4639
4691
4775
4911
Natural Gas
203.2
224.6
213.7
235.5
214.1
246.4
257.3
Recommendation:
Crude
Neutral
Natural Gas
Buy

7. 19th Nov’14 Aaj Ka Trend
Sumeet Bagadia (Associate Director) sumeet.bagadia@choiceindia.com
Ritesh Patel (Research Associate) ritesh.patel@choiceindia.com
Deveya Gaglani (Research Advisor) deveya.gaglani@chocieindia.com
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8. 19th Nov’14 Aaj Ka Trend
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