- Gold and silver prices initially dropped but failed to sustain lower levels and rose, with gold forming a bullish pattern and silver a double bottom positive divergence, suggesting further upside. - Most base metals also saw prices rise within defined ranges, with recommendations to buy copper, aluminum, nickel and zinc, and sell lead. - Crude oil and natural gas rose but gains were capped by ample supply, with forecasts for further rises supported by declining inventories and expected cooler weather.

1. 26th Sept 2014 Aaj Ka Trend
Bullions MCX Gold Oct Hourly Chart
Technical View: Initially prices moved lower but failed to sustain at lower levels and moved higher. On hourly timeframe prices have formed ‘BULLISH BAT’ harmonic pattern near 26420 with hammer candlestick and rallied. The momentum indicator, RSI on hourly chart has moved above 60 which are positive for prices. Bullishness in USDINR could move prices higher. For now, 27000 could be psychological level above which prices can head towards 27150/27250 levels as long as 26700 levels are protected on down side. MCX Silver Dec Hourly Chart
Technical View: Initially prices moved lower but failed to sustain at lower levels and have formed double bottom positive divergence on the momentum indicator, RSI and moved higher near our mentioned downtrend line. Breach of downtrend could move prices towards 39700/40000 levels. The momentum indicator, RSI has also moved higher near 60 levels which is suggesting momentum in prices. Downside could be limited to 38800 levels.

2. 26th Sept 2014 Aaj Ka Trend
Fundamental News:
• Gold prices dropped to trade near nine-month lows on Thursday, as the broadly stronger U.S. dollar continued to weigh on demand for the precious metal.
• Demand for the dollar continued to be underpinned after a report on Wednesday showed that U.S. new home sales data rose 18.0% last month to 504,000 units, the highest level since May 2008.
• Earlier in the week, a report showed that the U.S. manufacturing sector expanded in September, matching the rate of growth seen in the previous month, which was the strongest in over four years.
Pivot Levels for the Day:
S1
S2
S3
Pivot
R1
R2
R3
Gold
26556
26177
25595
26759
27138
27341
27923
Silver
38823
38417
37705
39129
39535
39841
40553
Recommendation:
Gold
Buy
Silver
Buy above39400

3. 26th Sept 2014 Aaj Ka Trend
Base Metals MCX Copper Nov Hourly Chart
Technical Views: As mentioned in our previous report prices have traded in the range of 412-418 levels. We expect breach of upper band of the mentioned range could move prices towards 422 levels. The momentum indicator, RSI has remained within the sideways range.
MCX Aluminum Sept Hourly Chart
MCX Lead Sept Hourly Chart
MCX Nickel Sept Hourly Chart
MCX Zinc Sept Hourly Chart

4. 26th Sept 2014 Aaj Ka Trend
Fundamental News:
• Copper output from sulphide from Aktogay is expected to begin in 2017.
• Since then prices have fluctuated in a range and only fallen below mid-August prices in the last few days. One of the support factors is LME stocks, which are at the lowest level since 2009 with current headline inventory of 153,700 tons close to 6-year lows, while available tonnage, excluding metal that has been canceled prior to physical drawdown, is lower still at 116,600 tons.
Pivot Levels for the Day:
S1
S2
S3
Pivot
R1
R2
R3
Copper
414.9
412.4
408.6
416.2
418.7
420.0
423.8
Aluminum
118.0
117.7
116.9
118.4
118.8
119.2
119.9
Lead
126.1
125.6
124.3
126.8
127.4
128.1
129.3
Nickel
1049.3
1040.6
1023.9
1057.3
1066.0
1074.0
1090.7
Zinc
138.4
137.6
136.2
138.9
139.7
140.3
141.6
Recommendation:
Copper
Buy
Aluminum
Buy above 119
Lead
Sell
Nickel
Buy
Zinc
Buy

5. 26th Sept 2014 Aaj Ka Trend
Energy MCX Crude Oct Hourly Chart:
Technical Views: As mentioned in our previous report, prices have broken the upper band of 5650 and moved higher almost achieving our short term target of 5780 levels. Bias remains bullish with no change in outlook. On hourly timeframe, RSI has formed positive reversal which suggest up move is still left. Double bottom on NYMEX crude would confirm above 94.10$ levels which would move prices towards higher levels. For now we expect prices to move near 5810/5860 levels as long as 5695 is protected on downside. MCX Natural Gas Sept Hourly Chart:
Technical Views: Natural gas prices initially moved higher but spiked lower following natural gas inventory but failed to sustain at lower levels and moved higher achieving our first short term target of 240 levels. Outlook remains bullish until reversal confirmation. The momentum indicator, RSI on hourly timeframe has taken support near 40 and moved higher which is positive for prices. Dip near 238 can be considered as buying opportunity to test 243/245 levels with support near 234 levels.

6. 26th Sept 2014 Aaj Ka Trend
Fundamental News:
• Crude oil futures slipped lower on Thursday, after rising to a four-day high fuelled by a decline in U.S. stockpiles, as ample supply from the Middle East continued to weigh.
• In a report, the Energy Information Administration said that crude inventories dropped 4.3 million barrels in the week ending September 19, confounding expectations of an increase of 386,000 barrels.
• But gains were limited as Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, said it pumped 9.597 million barrels of oil per day in August.
• Natural gas prices carried Wednesday's gains into Thursday after updated weather-forecasting models continued to call for cooler temperatures to trek across the U.S. in October.
Pivot Levels for the Day:
S1
S2
S3
Pivot
R1
R2
R3
Crude
5645
5577
5445
5709
5777
5841
5973
Natural Gas
229.7
226.8
218.1
235.5
238.4
244.2
252.9
Recommendation:
Crude
Buy
Natural Gas
Buy

7. 26th Sept 2014 Aaj Ka Trend
Sumeet Bagadia (Associate Director) sumeet.bagadia@choiceindia.com
Ritesh Patel (Research Associate) ritesh.patel@choiceindia.com
Deveya Gaglani (Research Advisor) deveya.gaglani@chocieindia.com
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8. 26th Sept 2014 Aaj Ka Trend
Disclaimer
This is solely for information of clients of Choice India and does not construe to be an investment advice. It is also not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase and sale of any financial instruments. Any action taken by you on the basis of the information contained herein is your responsibility alone and Choice India its subsidiaries or its employees or associates will not be liable in any manner for the consequences of such action taken by you. We have exercised due diligence in checking the correctness and authenticity of the information contained in this recommendation, but Choice India or any of its subsidiaries or associates or employees shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this recommendation or any action taken on basis of this information. Technical analysis studies market psychology, price patterns and volume levels. It is used to forecast future price and market movements. Technical analysis is complementary to fundamental analysis and news sources. The recommendations issued herewith might be contrary to recommendations issued by Choice India in the company research undertaken as the recommendations stated in this report is derived purely from technical analysis. Choice India has based this document on information obtained from sources it believes to be reliable but which it has not independently verified; Choice India makes no guarantee, representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its accuracy or completeness. The opinions contained within the report are based upon publicly available information at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. The information and any disclosures provided herein are in summary form and have been prepared for informational purposes. The recommendations and suggested price levels are intended purely for trading purposes. The recommendations are valid for the day of the report however trading trends and volumes might vary substantially on an intraday basis and the recommendations may be subject to change. The information and any disclosures provided herein may be considered confidential. Any use, distribution, modification, copying, forwarding or disclosure by any person is strictly prohibited. The information and any disclosures provided herein do not constitute a solicitation or offer to purchase or sell any security or other financial product or instrument. The current performance may be unaudited. Past performance does not guarantee future returns. There can be no assurance that investments will achieve any targeted rates of return, and there is no guarantee against the loss of your entire investment. POTENTIAL CONFLICT OF INTEREST DISCLOSURE (as on date of report) Disclosure of interest statement – • Analyst interest of the stock /Instrument(s): - No. • Firm interest of the stock / Instrument (s): - No.