The document provides a daily technical analysis of trends in bullions, base metals and energy commodities trading on the MCX exchange in India on 1st December 2014. It notes bearish trends across gold, silver, copper, crude oil and natural gas based on price breaks and momentum indicator levels. Selling opportunities are recommended on rallies for most commodities. Fundamental factors like an OPEC decision not to cut oil output and forecasts of mild weather weighing on natural gas prices are also discussed.

1. 01st Dec’14 Aaj Ka Trend
Bullions MCX Gold Dec Daily Chart
Technical View: As we were continuously mentioned in our previous reports, “For now, as long as 26650 levels are capped on higher side prices could drift lower near 26000 levels”. Prices drifted lower achieving our targets and in the second half prices drifted below 26000 levels. We continue with our bearish view as the momentum indicator, RSI has fallen below 40 levels on daily timeframe which suggest lack of momentum in prices. For now we expect rallies can be used as selling opportunity to move further lower towards 25600-25300 levels. MCX Silver Dec Daily Chart
Technical View: As expected prices have failed to breach the resistance level and drifted lower almost near its lower circuit level. Outlook remains bearish as the previous up move looks corrective of the previous impulsive down move and the current fall from 36600 – 34400 levels again looks impulsive as the whole fall has just covered in two trading session. For now, we expect rallies can be used as selling opportunity to move further towards 34000/33800 levels. The momentum indicator, RSI on daily timeframe has fallen below 40 which would also add bearishness to the prices.

2. 01st Dec’14 Aaj Ka Trend
Fundamental News:
• Gold prices declined on Friday, as U.S. markets were set to reopen after the Thanksgiving Day holiday on Thursday and as an abbreviated session of Comex floor trading was scheduled for Friday.
• On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold for February delivery traded at $1,186.80 a troy ounce during European morning trade, down 0.89%.
• Markets were jittery ahead of an upcoming Swiss referendum on central bank gold reserves for more trading cues.
• Swiss voters are set to go to the polls on November 30 to decide whether the Swiss National Bank would have to hold at least 20% of its assets in the precious metal, up from 8% now.
Pivot Levelsfor the Day:
S1
S2
S3
Pivot
R1
R2
R3
Gold
25613
25433
24944
25922
26102
26411
26900
Silver
34013
33499
32099
34899
35413
36299
37699
Recommendation:
Gold
Sell On Rallies
Silver
Sell On Rallies

3. 01st Dec’14 Aaj Ka Trend
Base Metals MCX Copper Feb Hourly Chart
Technical Views: Prices have broken the mentioned support of 403 in previous contract and drifted lower exceeding our short term targets. Outlook remains bearish as prices have broken psychological support of 400 levels. We now suggests rallies to be used as selling opportunity to again start moving towards lower levels. if the current falls continues, prices could easily drift lower towards 395/392 levels. the momentum indicator, RSI on hourly timeframe is oversold so pullback could be likely which again could be used as selling opportunity.
MCX Aluminum Dec Hourly Chart
MCX Lead Dec Hourly Chart
MCX Nickel Dec Daily Chart
MCX Zinc Dec Hourly Chart

4. 01st Dec’14 Aaj Ka Trend
Fundamental News:
• Copper Falls on Antamina Mine Strike While Oil Weighs on Metals.
• Copper for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange fell as much as 1.2 percent to $6,481.25 a metric ton, the lowest since March 25.
• Aluminum in London dropped as much as 0.5 percent to $2,033 a ton. Nickel and zinc also declined on the LME, while tin was unchanged.
Pivot Levels for the Day:
S1
S2
S3
Pivot
R1
R2
R3
Copper
386.2
381.7
369.0
394.4
398.9
407.1
419.8
Aluminum
127.3
126.3
124.3
128.3
129.3
130.3
132.3
Lead
124.9
124.1
122.3
125.9
126.7
127.7
129.5
Nickel
989.1
981.4
963.8
999.0
1006.7
1016.6
1034.2
Zinc
136.8
135.6
132.9
138.3
139.5
141.0
143.7
Recommendation:
Copper
Sell on Rallies
Aluminum
Sell
Lead
Sell
Nickel
Neutral
Zinc
Sell

5. 01st Dec’14 Aaj Ka Trend
Energy MCX Crude Dec Hourly Chart:
Technical Views: Prices gave a gap down opening and gave a pullback rally towards 4349 but failed to sustain at higher levels and drifted lower. From the above chart it can be observed that the pullback from 4228-4349 levels was forming bearish flag formation and the momentum indicator, RSI has also formed negative reversal at 40 levels which clearly indicated signs of bearishness. In the last few hours of trading session prices moved lower below 4228 levels which was previous intermediate low. For now we expect prices could further drift lower towards 4100/4000 as long as 4350 levels are caped on higher side. MCX Natural Gas Dec Hourly Chart:
Technical Views: Initially prices moved higher but failed to sustain at higher levels and drifted lower in the second half of the trading session. We expect prices could drift lower near 245 in the near term as long as 268 levels are capped on higher side. The momentum indicator RSI has also moved lower below 40 on hourly timeframe which indicates lack of momentum in prices.

6. 01st Dec’14 Aaj Ka Trend
Fundamental News:
• Crude Oil futures were sharply lower on Friday, still hovering near their lowest level since September 2010 after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries decided on Thursday not to cut output.
• Oil prices were hit after the OPEC said on Thursday that it would keep its official production target unchanged at 30 million barrels a day, disappointing hopes the oil cartel would lower output to support the market.
• The 12-member group is responsible for approximately 40% of global supply. Their next meeting is scheduled for June 5, 2015.
• Concerns over weakening global demand combined with indications that OPEC producers will not cut output have weighed on prices in recent months.
• Natural gas fell the most in nine months as forecasts for milder weather for much of the U.S. signaled reduced demand for the heating fuel. • Warmer-than-normal weather will blanket a large swath of the country through December 7, data from the Climate Prediction Center in College Park, Maryland, show. About 49 percent of U.S. households use gas for heating, according to the Energy Information Administration.
Pivot Levels for the Day:
S1
S2
S3
Pivot
R1
R2
R3
Crude
4152
4093
3936
4250
4309
4407
4564
Natural Gas
255
250
239
261
266
272
283
Recommendation:
Crude
Sell
Natural Gas
Sell

7. 01st Dec’14 Aaj Ka Trend
SumeetBagadia (Associate Director) sumeet.bagadia@choiceindia.com
Ritesh Patel (Research Associate) ritesh.patel@choiceindia.com
DeveyaGaglani (Research Advisor) deveya.gaglani@chocieindia.com
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8. 01st Dec’14 Aaj Ka Trend
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