Presentation made at the 4th Workshop on Strategic Crisis Management (Paris, 28-29 May 2015). For more information, visit the meeting webpage: http://www.oecd.org/gov/risk/4th-workshop-strategic-crisis-management.htm.

1. Horizon-Scanning Risk Assessment
- the UK’s “Forward Look”
John Tesh

2. History
--
5-20 years
<80 years
2002 – Horizon Scanning Risk Assessment
2005 – first National Risk Assessment
2010 – National Security Risk Assessment
2012 - Climate Change Risk Assessment
< 6 months
< 5 years

3. 3. Scan near
horizon & adjust
Plans
1. Identify &
assess
recurring risks
2. Build
Resilience
Communicate
risk
Plans/strategies
Infrastructure
Equipment
Legislation
Supplies
People
Training
Resilience planning cycle
Exercises
Lessons from the past
Performance
assessment
4.
Evaluate/Review
Performance

4. Short term horizon-scanning
Likelihood
Impact
LOWMEDIUMHIGH
LOW MEDIUM HIGH
infectious disease
outbreak
volcanic activity
affecting air travel
heat wave

5. Risk assessment
the five step process
Assemble
team
&
agree
methodology
identify risks
assess
impact
assess
likelihood
evaluate
risks

6. Assemble team
Coordination • Central crisis team As NRA
Policy leads
• Risk ‘owners’ – lead
government departments
• Impact ‘owners’ – eg
health department
As NRA
Subject-matter
experts
• Science (SAGE)
• Security
• Intelligence
• Industrial health & safety
As NRA

7. Agree Methodology
Objective • To build resilience
capability
• To prioritise medium
term risk
• To build consensus in
government
• To identify top risks in the
period
• enable contingency plans
to be adapted/ created for
the crisis in hand
Frequency/timescale • Review every 1 or 2
years
• Looking ahead up to
5 years
• Review every 3 months
• Looking ahead up to 6
months
Scope • 5x5 matrix covering
all significant hazards
and threats
• 3x3 matrix covering
hazards and possibly
threats

8. Identify risks – through scenarios
Scenario • Generic
• Reasonable worst
case
• Specific
• Realistic worst case
• Realistic expected case
Components of
scenarios - hazards
• Outcome
• Nature of the hazard
• Expected impacts
• Context
• Outcome
• Factors increasing risk
• Factors decreasing risk
• Key impact areas
Numbers of risk
scenarios
• 50-100 • 30 max

9. Identify risks – through scenarios
UK HSRAexample of a specific scenario - UK riots
Rioting/Public disorder
Context and
realistic
worst case
outcome
‘Copy-cat’ community based disorder and/or looting in multiple
locations, lasting days, with: some injuries, loss of life, and
damage to property; strain on the criminal justice system and
police capacity, challenges to community cohesion.
Factors
increasing
risk
Factors
decreasing
risk
Risk increase
Continued community
tensions
Use of social media to
organise riots
‘trigger events’ in near
future
Holidays, weather & alcohol
Summer protest season
Risk decrease
Improved police tactics and
faster response after 2011 riots
Better monitoring of community
tensions/popular feeling
Criminal elements deterred by
penalties under the law
Better business continuity
planning

10. Horizon-scanning risk assessment
Emergency Impact Criteria
Main Criteria Sub-criteria Weighting Scale: Low Medium High
Human impact Deaths
Illness/injury
none •Local rather than
national
consequences
•Affecting few
sectors or across
sectors at a low
level
•Little or no
disruption to
everyday
activities beyond
the area directly
affected
•Minimal
reputational
damage for
country
• Impacts may be felt
nationally
• Consequences
across a number of
sectors, or single
sector severely
impacted
• Some disruption to
everyday activities
beyond the area
directly affected
• Some reputational
risk for the country
•Consequences felt
nationally
•Many sectors
seriously affected
by the event,
including the
economy
•Significant
disruption to a
range of everyday
activities beyond
the area directly
affected
•Significant
reputational risk for
the country
Disruption of
essential services
Social disruption
1. Transport
2. Food/Water
3. Fuel
4. Gas
5. Electricity
6. Cash/finance
7. Comms
8. Education
9. Health
10. Evacuate
11. Shelter
12. Environment
none
Reputation none

11. Assess likelihood
Hazards Historical evidence
+
Scientific/expert opinion
of
Hazard + exposure +
vulnerability
Low
The event is not likely to occur in the next 6 months
Very few reliable indicators that the event will occur
No significant background factors increasing risk
Measures in place are likely to prevent the event from
occurring
Medium
The event may occur in the next 6 months
Some background factors increase the likelihood of
the event occurring
There are some reliable indicators that the event will
occur (possibly including expert opinion) and some
counter indications
High
The event is more likely to occur in the next 6
months than not
A range of background factors make the event more
likely to occur
There are compelling indicators that the event is likely
to occur (possibly including key triggers, precedent
and expert opinion)
Threats Expert opinion of
Capability + intent =
threat
+
Vulnerability
Scale 1 to 5 showing ‘order of
magnitude’ differences
in likelihood

12. Horizon-Scanning Risk Assessment
- the UK’s “Forward Look”
John Tesh