1. EM
ERGING
RISK
BY
SYED
ANSER
HUSSAIN, M
BA(HRM
)
PRESTON
UNIVERSITY
ISLM
ABAD
CAM
PUS, ISLAM
ABAD, PAKISTAN

2. Flood risk grows to unacceptable levels in 3 of the 4 scenarios
considered
From both climate change and socio-economic drivers
‘Intra-urban’ flood risk is confused in governance terms and a lot
less quantifiable
Continuing with existing policies is not an option
A very serious threat and a challenge to government and society
KEY FINDINGS OF THE DRIVERS ANALYSIS

3. How important are managing climate
change and Engineering ?
Combining the World Markets and Low emissions scenarios could
reduce economic damages by 25%.
Engineering only might cost 2X to get the same risk reduction.
But we can’t do without it either, so:
Integrated flood-risk management must lie at the core of our
response.

4. KEY MESSAGES FROM THE
RESPONSES ANALYSIS
Flood risk can be held at present day levels using a broad portfolio of
responses
This could cost UK an extra £20bn to 80bn over the next 80 years. This
means 2 to 4x the 2004 annual investment level
No emerging responses score well across all scenarios in terms of flood risk
reduction and sustainability
Most concerns relate to the way that flood responses are implemented ;
sustainability and governance are important
We should not eliminate responses but rather aim at producing balanced
portfolios that deliver flood risk reduction and sustainability

5. The time horizon of responses
Choices for responses that have a long lead time:
To implement societal responses with a long lead time sooner
rather than later. This is a precautionary approach to the increase
in flood risk, or
Rely increasingly on bigger structural flood defences later, with
potential cost and sustainability consequences.

6. Adaptable, reversible and
irreversible responses
Choices for managing uncertainty in future flood risk:
To favour reversible options; and
To favour responses that have high adaptive capacity
and allow incremental enhancements; or
To face irreversible adverse consequences for flood
management.

7. Summing up, building a portfolio of responses
“How we use land, balancing the wider economic,
environmental and social needs against creating a legacy of
flood risk.
How we manage the balance between state and market
forces in decisions on land use.
Whether to implement societal responses with a longer lead
time; or rely increasingly on bigger structural flood defences
with potential economic, social and environmental costs.
How much emphasis to place on measures that are reversible
and those that are highly adaptive.”

8. Final messages
Flood risk is set to increase under all scenarios, through
climate, economic and governance drivers
We can make it easier or harder for ourselves by our actions
on global emissions and national governance.
There are potentially affordable and sustainable portfolios of
responses, with which we can pull back risk to present day
levels
We will still need to double or quadruple the current annual
spend on FRM
We need to plan now for future risks, and develop our policies,
science and skills.

9. PRINCIPLES OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

10. SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS
Cost
effectiveness
Robustness
Environmental
quality
Precaution
society
environment
economy
Social
justice
Flood Risk

11. DEFINING THE METRICS
Cost effectiveness
• The cost effectiveness of implementing the response option
Social justice
• The impact of action on different types of household
Environmental quality
• The impact on biodiversity and the area and quality of habitats
Robustness
• The ability of the response actions to cope with uncertainty relating to
socio-economic factors and climate change
Precaution
• This metric relates to the ability to cope with extreme events and
operational uncertainty in implementing the responses

12. SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS SCORING
neutral
++
- -
0
Environmental Quality
Social Justice
Robustness
Precaution
Flood risk
Cost Effectiveness

13. SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS –
A TYPICAL EXAMPLE
Pre-event Measures
World Markets
Global Sustainability
National Enterprise
Local Stewardship
Flood Risk
Cost
Effectiveness
Environmental Quality
Social Justice
Precaution
Robustness
++
0
--
• Flood preparedness planning
• Communication and education
• Flood-risk mapping
• Flood plans
• Flood log books

14. • There are 12 failures under World Markets and 13 under
National Enterprise
• The responses themselves do not necessarily lead to social
injustice, it is the way that they are potentially applied
• This raises questions in relation to how the responses are
delivered together with compensation and relocation

15. CLOSING MESSAGES ON SUSTAINABILITY
• No emerging responses score well across all scenarios in
terms of flood risk reduction and sustainability
• A portfolio of measures is required to deliver effective flood
risk management that is sustainable
• Most concerns relate to the way that flood responses are
implemented rather than the responses themselves that’s
why governance is so important
In developing policy and projects, we should not eliminate any
responses a priori but produce balanced portfolios of
structural and non-structural responses that deliver flood risk
reduction and sustainability

16. Background
 New and Emerging Risks at Work – Occupational Safety and Health (OSH)
 Consortium composed of 18 European agencies:
Germany: BAUA and DGUV
Finland: Institute of Occupational Health
Schweden: Swedish Council for Working Life and Social Research, FAS
 Goals: Enhancing quality and cooperation in the OSH research; synergistic
effects and improved flow of information
 Joint call in 2009
 Start of the project: may 2010
 Subsidy amount : 300.000 € in Germany, ….in Sweden; … in Finland

17. Why focus on leaders' behaviours?Why focus on leaders' behaviours?
 Psychological disorders as reasons for sick leave have
dramatically increased in the last years
 Due to changing nature of work: Increasing importance of
psychosocial risk factors
 Leaders impact health and well-being of employees in many
ways:
 task assignment (complexity, autonomy, time pressure)
 feedback
 social support
 participation in decision making

18. Research on Leadership and Health – in aResearch on Leadership and Health – in a
nutshellnutshell
 The supervisor-subordinate
relationship has been reported as one of
the most common sources of stress in
organizations
 LMX, and Transformational leadership as concepts are
currently dominating the field of research, but there are also
potential negative consequences!
 Leaders behaviours can be either a direct predictor for
employees health and well-being, or plays a moderating role
between stressors, and strain

19. 1. Description of the samples in every country
2. Reliability and validity of the scales used
3. Differences in perceived leadership between countries
4. Differences in occupational well-being between
countries
5. Relationships between leadership and well-being
indicators
6. Conclusions
Outline

20. 1. Leadership climate: leaders provide clarity in goals, supply
information and feedback, carry out changes at work successfully,
promote employee participation and control
2. Transformational leadership: leaders act as role models,
provide attractive vision of future, encourage independent
thought, pay attention to individual development
3. Authentic leadership: leaders genuinely desire to understand
their own leadership to serve others more effectively
4. Fair leadership: leaders treat their subordinates fairly and
equally
5. Health-promoting leadership: leaders support employees’
autonomy and participation and take active role in solving
conflicts
6. Abusive leadership: leaders show hostile verbal and nonverbal
behaviors, excluding physical contact
Leadership Scales

21. • The samples differ between the countries which limits conclusions.
• Leadership is generally perceived as most positively in Sweden and most
negatively in Germany; Finland falls in between.
• Occupational well-being is lowest among the German employees, although
the Finnish employees have highest turnover intentions.
• Health-promoting leadership shows highest correlations with well-being
indicators in every country (r = |.26-.48|), and leadership climate is the
second one (r = |.20-.40|).
Conclusions

22. CYBER TERRORISM AND ITS THREATS

23. WHAT IS CYBER TERRORISM
 An attack that undermines the confidentiality or
availability of a computer, information resident on
it.
 Some offences under Computer Misuse and
Cybercrime Act 2003:
 Unauthorized access to data
 Access with intent to commit offences
 Unauthorized access to and interception of
computer service
 Damaging or denying access to computer system
The Intelligence Bureau(IB) has warned regarding
the cyber threat
•Dr. A.P.J. Abdul Kalam warned in a 2005 lecture
regarding the cyber terrorism
•Cyber crime experts say this is a dangerous

24. POSSIBILITIES OF CYBER TERRORISM
• The cyber terrorism is likely to be fought in
three stages.
 First the enemy would bring down the
control systems of defense .
 Secondly, they would look to attack
financial services .
Finally, nuclear Power plant nerve
center

25. ESTIMATED ENEMY COUNTRIES
Two countries are estimated in
cyber attack towards Pakistan.
Namely USA, India and Israel.
USA and India are trying to
destabilize our economy.

26. CHILD PORNOGRAPHY
Internet
 Internet provides less risk of being identified.
 Highly organized, global subculture.
 Many of them are in countries where child pornography is
not a priority for law enforcement.
 What is child pornography? Definition of child.

27. LACKING OF CYBER SECURITY
 It is estimated that 5 thousand of corporate networks have
no protection from cracking.
 In Home the internet facilities still suffers security. Which
causes cyber hacking of the banking of that house
 Pakistan becoming the developed nation the number of
transactions has made to digital via Internet has increased .
The work of almost all branches of the country like economy,
energy, transport and communications, banking uses
computer networks.
 But still we don’t have cyber security..
 The breakage of these networks may paralyze the whole
country.
 Pakistan being IT emerging power is in need of cyber
security

28. WAY OF SECURITY
• cyber crime police stations must be
established soon.
• The recruitment of professionals is must.
• The latest updating of security software's
must be done in companies, schools, colleges
and other sectors.
• The pirated soft wares must be put to an end.
• The Google maps showing the higher security
parts of the nation must be disabled.
• The unauthorized GSM Sims must be
deactivated by the mobile companies .
• The mobiles with out IP address must be
banned.
• The selling of smarter mobiles must be only to
certified people cause the interaction between
those mobile cant be tracked.

29. • The recording between blackberry mobiles
must be established.
• The education of the security system must be
made from school level to colleges.
• The banning of the sites regarding
manufacture of bombs and hacking and
other offensive sites must be done.
• The nation is vulnerable to new forms of
terrorism ranging from cyber attacks to attacks
on military bases abroad to ballistic missile
attacks on U.S. cities.
• “Wars in the 21st
century will increasingly require
all elements of national power – not just the
military. They will require that economic,
diplomatic, financial, law enforcement and
intelligence capabilities work together.”

31. REAL WORLD EXAMPLE – AUSTRALIA 2000REAL WORLD EXAMPLE – AUSTRALIA 2000
Maroochy Shire Waste Water Plant – Sunshine Coast
Insider
46 intrusions over 2 month period
Release of sewage into parks, rivers
Environmental damage

32. Cost of Capability
Availability of Capability
1955 1960 1970 1975 1985
Invasion
Precision
Guided
Munitions
ComputerStrategic
Nuclear
Weapons
Cruise Missile
Cost & Means of AttackCost & Means of Attack
1945 Today
Missiles
ICBM & SLBM

33. BIO-TERRORISM
Bioterrorism is one form of
terrorism. Terrorism is defined as
the unlawful use of force or
violence against persons or
property to intimidate or coerce a
government or civilian population
in the furtherance of political or
social objectives.

34. Terrorists use weapons of mass
destruction. These are
destructive devices which include
bombs, missiles, poison
chemicals, disease organisms,
radiation or radioactivity at levels
dangerous to human life.

35. Biologic agents are likely to be used by
terrorists as weapons because:
They are capable of damaging populations, economies, and
food supplies
Certain agents are inexpensive to make
They can be directed at a small group of people or an entire
population
They can be used to attack people, economies and food
supplies
They cause fear, panic and social disruption

36. CHARACTERISTICS OF BIOLOGICAL AGENTS
THAT COULD BE USED AS BIOTERRORIST
AGENTS
• They have a wide range of effects
• They are obtained from nature
• They are easily made by relatively
unsophisticated methods
• They are invisible to the senses
• Their effects may be delayed
• They can produce mass casualties

37. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN A BIOLOGICAL
ATTACK AND A NATURAL OCCURENCE
• A biological terrorist attack may mimic
a large scale naturally occurring
disease outbreak. There are
differences. A biological attack:
• Results from a deliberate act
• Will be treated as a crime scene
• May not be immediately recognized

38. BIOLOGICAL ATTACK VS. NATURAL
OCCURRENCE
May be preceded by verbal or written threats
from a terrorist group
May find abandoned spray devices may be
found
Claims by a terrorist group to have released
a biologic agent
May result in contamination of critical
facilities
May expand rapidly from different source
cases

39. ROUTES OF ENTRY INTO THE HUMAN BODY
Ingestion
Dermal penetration
Inhalation
AEROSOL INHALATION
The use of aerosols is an efficient way to affect
the maximum number of people with a single
attack.

40. BIOWEAPONS RECENT HISTORY
Bio weapons have a long history. Recent uses include:
U.S, Canada, Great Britain, Japan, and the U.S.S.R experiment
with anthrax during World War II (W.W.II)
In 1991, Iraq threatens use of bio weapons against U. S. troops
in Persian Gulf war
Post W.W.II , NATO and the Warsaw Pact nations had bio
weapons programs
• In 1969, U. S. unilateral decision to destroy bio weapons
• In 1972, Bio weapons Convention created in which U. S. and
U. S. S. R. were signatories
• Possible/probable active offensive bioweapons programs in
N. Korea, Iran, China, Egypt, Algeria, India, Pakistan, Syria,
Israel
• In 1986, Bhagwan cult poisons Oregon salad bars with
salmonella-715 people sick
• In 1995, Aryan Nation orders plague bacteria from supply
house in Maryland and Minnesota Patriots Council members

41. BIOLOGICAL AGENTS
• There are several types of agents.
They are classified as:
• Bacteria
• Rickettsia
• Viruses
• Biotoxins

42. BACTERIA
• Single celled organisms
capable of causing
disease. These agents,
grown on culture to
produce large quantities,
can be modified or
“weaponized” for greater
destruction
• Produces inflammation in
tissues and/or toxins
EXAMPLES
• ANTHRAX
• SMALL POX
• PLAGUE
• TYPHOID
• CHOLERA
• TULAREMIA

43. RICKETTSIA
• Vector borne (ticks,
lice, mosquitos)
parasitic form of
bacteria
• Diseases are difficult
to treat
• Variants exist
worldwide
EXAMPLES
• TYPHUS
• ROCKY MT.
SPOTTED FEVER
• Q FEVER
• INDIA TICK FEVER
• MEDITERANEAN
TICK FEVER

44. VIRUSES
• Smaller than
bacteria
• RNA or DNA in
a protein coat
• Use living cells
to reproduce
• Not affected
by antibiotics
EXAMPLES
• EBOLA
• LASSA FEVER
• INFLUENZA
• VIRAL HEPATITIS
• VIRAL
HEMORRHAGIC
FEVERS

45. BIOTOXINS
• Are poisonous by-
products of bacteria,
fungi, marine animals or
plants
• Do not replicate in the
host
• Are not communicable
• Highly toxic when
delivered as an aerosol
EXAMPLES
• BOTULINUM
• STAPHLOCCOCAL
ENTEROTOXIN B
• RICIN

46. BIOLOGICAL AGENTS MOST LIKELY TO BE USED
IN A TERRORIST ATTACK
• Bacteria - anthrax, plague,
tularemia
• Virus - small pox, viral hemorrhagic
fever
• Biotoxin - botulism

47. ANTHRAX
• Infectious agent: Bacillus
anthraces – gram +, spore
forming bacteria
• May enter the body from skin
(coetaneous), digestive system
or by inhalation (most likely
route to be used by terrorists)

48. ANTHRAX
• Symptoms: itching, lesions, fever, fatigue,
non-productive cough, respiratory failure and
hemodynamic collapse
• Transmission: none person to person except
with cutaneous
• Incubation period: 1 to 6 days
• Mortality: 5 to 20% percutaneous, 80 to 90%
inhalation
• Treatment: antibiotics
• Prevention: vaccine

49. PLAGUE
In nature, fleas living on rodents spread
infection to humans. As a bioterrorist
weapon – inhalation of aerosol leads to
pneumonia, sepsis and infections of bodily
organs
Infectious agent: Yersinia pestis – a gram
neg., non-motile bacillus
May be bubonic ( infection of lymph nodes)
or pneumonic (infection of lungs)or
septicemic
Symptoms: cough with bloody sputum, fever,
chill, shortness of breath

50. PLAGUE
• Transmission: may occur person to
person by respiratory droplet
inhalation
• Incubation period: 2 to 3 days
• Mortality: 50 to 60%
• Treatment: antibiotics
• Prevention: vaccine ineffective against
aerosol exposure

51. TULAREMIA
• A zootomic, bacterial infection caused
by Francisella tularensis, a gram
negative coccobacillus
• In nature, bacteria is commonly
found in ticks living on rabbits and
transmitted by handling the animal or
by tick bite. Inhalation of aerosol
leads to pneumonia and sepsis

52. TULAREMIA
Symptoms: sudden and influenza-like with fever,
chills, headache and nausea
Transmission: not usually person to person
Incubation period:3 to 5 days(range 1 to 14)
Mortality: low unless untreated
Treatment: antibiotics if early, vaccine available
Prevention: in nature, avoid tick bites and using
gloves when handling infected animals

53. BOTULISM
• Infectious agent: Clostridium botulinum – a spore
forming, anaerobic bacillus
• In nature, may be food borne, wound, or intestinal. As
a bioterrorist weapon, ingestion or inhalation leads to
production of the neurotoxin and resulting flaccid
paralysis
• Symptom: fatigue, weakness, blurred vision, difficulty
in swallowing and speaking, descending muscle
paralysis and respiratory failure
• Transmission: none person to person
• Incubation period: 12 to 72 hours
• Mortality: most lethal compound per weight
• Treatment: antitoxins, respiratory support
• Prevention: vaccine available for types A and B

54. SMALL POX
Infectious agent: Variola virus - Orthopox
virus
Declared eradicated in 1980, but stockpiles
may exist
Not naturally acquired. It can be
disseminated as and inhaled as an aerosol
Symptoms: Fever, muscular rigidity,
headaches, and vomiting. Severe cases
experience prostration and hemorrhage
into skin and mucous membranes

55. SMALL POX
Rash appears after about three weeks;
progresses from macules (initial skin lesions)
to papules to pustular vesicles, to scabs
Transmission: may occur person to person by
respiratory droplets or skin inoculation.
Highly contagious when rash appears
Incubation period: 10 to 12 days
Mortality: less than 1% in the minor form and
20 to50 % in the major form
Treatment: supportive
Prevention: vaccine

56. VIRAL HEMORRHAGIC FEVERS
These are highly infectious viral illnesses
caused by the Filoviruses (Ebola and
Marburg), Arenaviruses (Lassa fever),
Bunyaviruses (Congo hemorragic fever and
Hantaviral disease), and Flaviviruses
Symptoms: vary from one type to the next. They
include: sudden onset of fever, muscle aches,
headache, followed by vomiting, diarrhea,
and rash and internal bleeding
Complications: In severe forms, multiorgan
failure occurs, primarily due to hemorrhagic
and pulmonary complications

57. VIRAL HEMORRAGIC FEVERS
Mode of transmission: handling infected wild
animals, but may be used as an aerosol
bioterrorist weapon
Incubation period: 2 to 21 days
Reservoir: gorillas and chimpanzees
Transmission: some may be spread person to
person by contact with body secretions
Mortality: Ebola rates have reached 90% but
vary
Treatment: supportive
Prevention: Avoid contact with infected
monkeys or other animal hosts

58. THANK YOU