This document discusses human population dynamics and projections. It covers topics like exponential population growth, demographic transition stages, population pyramids, crude birth and death rates, and population projections. The key points are: 1) World population reached 7 billion in 2011 with high growth rates in developing countries. The top two most populous countries are China and India. 2) Population growth follows an S-shaped curve as countries progress through 5 stages of demographic transition from high birth/death rates to low birth/death rates. 3) Population pyramids provide insights into the age and sex structure of a population and how it is changing over time and stages of demographic transition. 4) Population projections are made

1. TOPIC 3: HUMAN POPULATION, CARRYING
CAPACITY AND RESOURCE USE
Ch.3.1 Population Dynamics
Ch.3.2 Resources-natural capital
Ch.3.3 Energy Resources
Ch.3.4 The Soil System
Ch.3.5 Food Resources
Ch.3.6 Water Resources
Ch.3.7 Limits to growth
Ch.3.8 Environmental Demands of Human
Populations

2. POPULATION DYNAMICS
1. EXPONENTIAL GROWTH in human
populn.
2. Recent DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES
3. The Concept of EXPONENTIAL GROWTH
4. CRUDE BIRTH & DEATH RATES,
FERTILITY, DOUBLING TIME AND RATES OF
NATURAL CHANGE

3. 5. AGE-SEX PYRAMIDS and the Model of
DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
6. Models and predicting the growth of Human
Populations
7. POPULATION PROJECTIONS & UN 2010
REVISION

5.  WORLD POPULATION NOS. (2011)
WORLD MEDCs LEDCs
POPULATION 6.98 b 1.24 b 5.74 b
Births per
year 13.95 b 1.4 b 12.54 b
day 382 351 38 548 343 803
minute 266 27 239
Death per
Year 56.6 m 12.2 m 44.4 m
day 155 099 33 427 121 671
minute 108 23 84
Natural
Increase
(Births-Deaths)
per
year 82.94 m 1.86 m 81.07 m
day 227 252 5121 222 132
minute 158 4 154
Infants deaths
per
year 6.07 m 77 000 6 m
day 16 652 211 1 644
minute 12.1 0.1 11

6. • The total populn. and the rate of populn. Gwth are
much higher in LEDCs than MEDCs.
• MEDCs:high populn. gwth in 19th and early 20th cent.
• LEDCs:high populn. gwth since 1950
• Refer next ppt slide
• “Population Explosion”-Highest global popul GR
reached in 1960s in LEDCs : 2.4%
• By late 1990s:GR declined to 1.2%
• Population Momentum: Numbers being added each yr.

8. DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSFORMATION
• took a cent. to complete in MEDCs, occurred
in a generation in some LECDs
• Fertility: dropped,
• except Africa- GR 2.5% ,>20 count families of
at least 5 children.
• China and India, 37% of world’s populn.
• India’s popul GR faster, overtake China’s popul
by 2030

9.  TEN MOST POPULOUS COUNTRIES IN THE
WORLD 2011
2011 2050
COUNTRY Populn./million COUNTRY Populn./million
1. CHINA 1346 INDIA 1692
2. INDIA 1241 CHINA 1313
3. US 312 NIGERIA 433
4. INDONESIA 238 US 423
5. BRAZIL 197 PAKISTAN 314
6. PAKISTAN 177 INDONESIA 309
7. NIGERIA 162 BANGLADESH 226
8. BANGLADESH 151 BRAZIL 223
9. RUSSIA 143 ETHIOPIA 174
10. JAPAN 128 PHILLIPPINES 150

10. EXPONENTIAL GROWTH(EG) occurs
• When GR of a mathematical function is ~
function's current value
• Means increase in no. or size at constantly
growing rate.

11.  MALTHUSIAN THEORY
• By Revd Malthus(1766-1834)
• Said-crux of popul problem  tendency in mankind to
increase,
-if unchecked beyond the possibility of an
adequate supply of food in limited territory
• Two basic principles
-popul grows at a Geometric rate(1,2,4,8 etc)
-food prodn increases at Arithmetic
rate(1,2,3,4 etc)
• In time,popul outsrip food supply until a catastrophe
occurred ex famine,disease,war
-limiting factors maintain a balance b/n popul &
resource in long term
• Limitations
- applicable to old period,200 yrs ago
- tech advances unfold,ex agric.(fertiliser,HYV etc)

12. PAUL EHRLICH and NEO MALTHUSIANS
• PAUL EHRLICH
-Follower of Malthus,
-warned, the potential mass starvation in 1970s-80s
-advocate,immediate action to limit popul growth
-heavily criticised, inaccurate predictions.
• NEO MALTHUSIANS, argue that expanding popul lead to
unsustainable pressure on food & other resources.In recent yrs
highlighted
-steady Global decline in farmland/person
-steep rise in cost of food products
-growing scarcity of fish in many parts
-impact of climate change on agriculture
-switchover, food pdn to biofuel,create food crisis to reduce
energy crisis
-increase in world popul
-global increase in meat consumption,rise in new NICs

13. NEO MALTHUSIANS VS ANTI MALTHUSIANS
-reference Next ppt. slide
• ANTI MALTHUSIANS or Resource Optimists believe human
ingenuity will continue to conquer resource
problems, through
-development of new resources
-replacement of less efficient with more efficient
resources
-rapid dev of green tech thru R&D
-imp advances in agric research
-stabilising levels of consumptions in some MEDCs

15. CBR & CDR
• CBR =no. of live births/country’s popul * 1000
• CDR =no. of deaths/country’s popul * 1000
-crude means BR & DR applies to the total popul
-taking no a/c of gender and age
-CBR & CDR are heavily influence by age structure
-in CBR,the male popul is considered together with
female popul

16. CALCULATIONS (BR,DR & RATE OF NATURAL
CHANGE (RNC)
• Example:for a country
-If BR is 15 per 1000 and DR is 10 per 1000
-means 15 births per 1000 & 10 deaths per 1000
-diff b/n BR & DR is RNC
-(15 per 1000 – 10 per 1000)=5 per 1000 is RNC
• RNC can be Positive(Increase) or Negative(Decrease)
-Natural Increase when, BR>DR
-Natural Decrease when, DR>BR
• RNC can also be expressed as %
-in ex above RNC 5 per 1000, or 0.5%

17. • Some facts
-Africa, highest BR (36 per 1000 as per 2011)
-Europe, lowest BR (11 per 1000 as per 2011)
-Africa BR ,3 1/2 times that of Europe
-Global Variations in DR, much less(12/1000
in Africa,6/1000 in Europe)
-High Variations in BR,(48/1000 in Niger,
7/1000 in Monaco/Taiwan)
-sixteen countries in Africa, CBR 40/1000
-Europe BR=DR, zero RNC (0.0%)

18. Scanned by CamScanner
 CRUDE BIRTH and DEATH RATES, 2011

19. FR & TFR
• FR
-is the no. of live births per 1000 women (15-44
yrs) in a given yr
• TFR
-is the avg no. of children that would be born
alive to a woman (or group of women) during
her lifetime
-TFR varies as high of 7.0(Niger), as low as 1.0
(China,Macao & Hongkong)

20. CRUCIAL FACTORS IN FERTILITY
• % of young women of reproductive age
• Replacement level fertility(RLF)
-level at which each generation has just enough children
to replace themselves in the popul
-level varies for diff popul
-a TFR of 2.12 is usually considered as RLF

22. ANALYSIS ABOUT RLF FROM ABOVE TABLE
• with global fertility decline
-a growing no. of countries reached or fallen below RLF
-by 2011 >80 countries had TFR = or < 2.1
-this no is likely to increase in future

23.  MAP OF TFR,2008

26. DOUBLING TIME
• Doubling Time
-of a popul is the number of yrs it would take a popul to
double its size at its current GR
-determined by dividing 70 by the GR which is natural log
of 2, which is 70
ex In 2010, popul of a country 33 mill at GR 0.9%
hence, popul DT=70/0.9=77.7 yrs
so, in 2087 if current GR maintained,popul will be
66 mill
• Useful in making international comparisons
• Helps to understand the impact of popul growth on resources & the
environment in general
• However, popul GR can change significantly over time & thus
figures ve to be revised on regular basis

30. CHARACTERISTICS OF EACH STAGE
• The high stationary stage(Stage 1)
-CBR is high & stable, CDR is high & fluctuating (famine,
disease, war)
-popul GR is very slow, many periods of decline
-IMR is high, life expectancy is low
-max popul is <15yrs of age
-pre industrial, mostly rural & subsistence agric
• The early expanding stage (Stage 2)
-DR declines, BR at previous level (social reform slow)
-RNC increases to peak
-IMR falls, life expectancy increases
-proportion of popul <15 yrs increases
- rural to urban migration

31. • The late expanding stage (Stage 3)
-IMR low, BR declines (social reform)
-slow urbanisation & life expectancy increases
-countries in this stage experience low DR than nations in
final stage (relatively young popul)
• The low stationary stage (Stage 4)
-BR & DR are low
-BR slightly higher (changing economic condn)
-popul GR is slow.
-DR rise as avg age of popul increases
-life expectancy still improves
• The natural decrease stage (Stage 5)
-BR fallen below DR, resulting in RNC,many countries
-popul declining (absence of net migration inflow)
-ex E. or S. Europe
• Criticism
-too Eurocentric, many LEDCs not follow & migration(excluded)

32. DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION IN LEDCs
• BR in stages 1 & 2 higher.
-about 12 African count, BR>45 per 1000
• DR fell steeply
-introduction of Western medicines
• Impact of high GR in stage 2 & early stage 3
-due to larger base popul
-no countries (now as MEDCs) had popul near India/
China when they entered stage 2
• Fall in fertility in stage 3 has been steeper
-due to wider modern contraception
• Relationship b/n popul change & eco dev
-much more tenuous (thin) in LEDCs

33. DIFFERENT MODELS OF DEMOGRAPHIC
TRANSITION
• Most countries followed Classical/English model of DT(3.7a),
some did not follow
• Czech demographer Pavlik, recognised two alternative types
of popul change as in 3.7b and 3.7c
• In France BR fell at about same time as DR and there was no
intermediate period of high natural increase
• In Japan & Mexico the BR increased in stage 2
-due to improved health of women in reproductive age

34. Scanned by CamScanner

35. AGE AND SEX PYRAMIDS
• Structure or composition of a popul is product of the
processes of fertility, mortality & migration
• The most studied aspect is age & sex. Others are race,
language, religion & social/occupational gps
• Pyramids used to portray either absolute(in nos) or relative
data(%), the latter frequently used, for easier comparisons
• Each bar- age groups, left side male,right side female
• Shape changes as country progresses thru DT

38. POPULATION PYRAMID OF ENGLAND

40. NIGER BANGLADESH UK JAPAN
BR 48 22 13 8
DR 12 6 9 9
IMR 88 45 4.5 2.6
LIFE EXPEC
IN YRS
55 69 80 83
POPU(<15
YRS)
49% 31% 17% 13%
POPU(>65Y ) 2% 5% 16% 23%
STAGE 2 3 4 5
STRUCTURE -wide base,high
fert.
-marked decrease
in width of each
successive bar,
high mort.
-base narrower than some of higher
bars, fert. Decline
-almost equal width of youngest 3
bars,recent fall in fert.
-wide bars in teenage & young age
gp
-much narrow bar, much low
fert.
-reduced narrowing of each
bar, further decline in mort. &
greater LE
-distincly
inverted shape,
lowest fert. &
highest LE

43. • Above graph useful to understand
-young dependant
-economically active popu
-elderly dependant popul

45. SEX STRUCTURE
• Sex Ratio
-is the no. of males per 100 females in a population
-male births consistently exceed female births due to
-biological & social reasons (preference of male child)
• Gap b/n male & female
-after birth gap begins to narrow until eventually females
outnumber males
-at every age, male mortality > female mortality
-most rapid in poorest countries, due to high IMR higher
among males than females
• A Report
-China (2002), 116/100, due to female fetuses aborted,
intent on male child
• Differences with countries
-ex US, highest in Alaska (103.2), lowest in Mississippi (92.2)

46.  Models play a central role
• in predicting the growth of human popul
• Such models include
-computer simulations
-statistical & demographic tables
-age-sex pyramids
-graphical extrapolation of popul curves

47. POPULATION PROJECTIONS
• Prediction of future popul based on the present age-sex
structure, and rates of fertility/mortality/migration.
• Simplest projections based on estimation of current and past
trends
• Very diff projections based on different assumptions

48. PAST VS PRESENT
• Earlier Projections
-analysis of statistical & demographic tables
-popul pyramids,line graphs and other cartographic
methods were used
-to plot data & project into the future
-dates back to 1945
• Modern Projections
-computer tech
-complex permutations included
-frequent updations in projections
-to reflect changes in fertility, mortality etc.

49. TYPES OF POPULATION PROJECTIONS
• Differ widely in their
-geographic coverage, time scale(sub national like city to
whole world), content & use
• Local area projections
-shorter time scale for 10-20 yrs
• Global projections
-extend for 25,50 or 100 yrs
• Longer term projections
-limited no of variables (popul, age & sex)
• Smaller region projections
-other variables as well (labour, household type)

50.  POPULATION MOMENTUM IN POPULATION
PROJECTION
• Occurs in Stage 3 of DT
• Although GR falling in a country but increase in absolute no due to popul
momentum
• Highest global GR in early 1960s
• Highest increase in popul in late 1980s
 POPULATION PREDICTIONS
• Demographers, reasonably confident about near & medium term PP for
‘Positive Momentum” countries
-because thru PM, much of future is built into the current
structure of popul
-considerable for very high fertility countries, even if the
TFR fell sharply
• In Contrast, the low-fertility countries
-viz Germany, Italy & Spain do not have PM
-the PM of these popul has been dessipated by decades of fertility
below the replacement level

51. PROJECTIONS FROM ASSUMPTIONS
• Projections result from assumptions, when they are prepared.
Assumptions must be made about:
-declines in the future BR
-improvement in LE & IMR
-migration into and out of an area
• Any PP is hypothetical in nature.
-always dangerous to assume that various demographic
factors will stay same or will change marginally in future
-significant demographic changes ve occurred since 1950 in
both LEDCs & MEDCs
-many previous PP ve proved inaccurate to a considerable
degree
-ex failure to foresee the ‘baby boom’ after the end of WW2,
and the end of this boom

52. • Although total accuracy is almost impossible to achieve, PP need to
be accurate enough to serve as basis for policies
• D.A.Coleman states
-”Population matters because of its associated effects on
power, environment & security arising from global & regional, and
particularly differential, popul growth and composition”
Analysis of (ppt), three global Projections to 2050
• The central forecast expects world popul to stabilise at about 9 bill
• The upper line is the UN’s high variant which assumes slow decline
in fertility and faster increase in LE
• The low variant line shows that the UN now takes seriously the
possibility that world popul could actually decline before the end of
the century.

54. THE UNITED NATIONS 2010 REVISION
• The world popul is expected to hit 10.1 bill by 2100 after
reaching

55. • Virtually all the growth will take place in LEDCs and will be
predominately among the poorest popul in urban areas
• Refer Fig. shows
-the popul pyramid for the world projected to change (2050 & 2100)
-23% of people will be >65yrs or over (increase from 7.6% in 2010)
-b/n 2011 and 2100, the popul of high- fertility countries (sub
Saharan Africa), projected to triple from 1.2 bill to 4.2 bill
-during same period, popul of intermediate –fertility countries (India,
US & Mexico), increase by just 26%
-popul of low-fertility countries (Europe, China & Aus), decline by
20%
-eventually popul of high-fertility countries forcast to decline until
reaching replacement fertility by end of century
• However wider availability of family planning services and small variations
in fertility produce considerable differences, in size of popul in long run.

56. 1. What is the name given to the rapid growth of world
population that has taken place since the industrial revolution?
A. Population crash
B. Population bomb
C. Population explosion
D. Population bang
E. Population dive
•
2. What two words could be used to describe the growth of
world population?
A. Exponential
B. Arithmetic
C. Logarithmic
D. Steady
E. Constant

57. 3. How is population density calculated?
A. Area divided by population
B. Population divided by GNP
C. Resource capacity divided by population
D. Population multiplied by area
E. Population divided by area
4. What is the geographic term for a country with a high
population density?
A. A densely populated country
B. An open country
C. An overpopulated country
D. A sparsely populated country
E. An under populated country

58. 5. Which one of these countries is an example of a country with
a high population density?
A. Canada
B. Bangladesh
C. Australia
D. USA
E. Russia
6. What is the geographic term for a country with a low
population density?
A. A densely populated country
B. A closed country
C. An under populated country
D. A sparsely populated country
E. An overpopulated country
•

59. 7. Which one of these regions is an example of a country with a
low population density?
A. The south east of the UK
B. New Delhi in India
C. The Canadian Northlands
D. The Japanese coastline
E. The Leeds Bradford conurbation in the UK
8. Which one of these statements best describes the population
distribution within the USA?
A. The interior of the US generally has a high population density
B. The coasts of the US generally have a low population density
C. The US is sparsely populated
D. The US is densely populated
E. Some parts of the US are densely populated, other parts are
sparsely populated
•

60. 9. Which one of these statements best describes a theoretical
situation where the number of resources match the population
of an area?
A.Overpopulation
B.Optimum population
C.Under population
D.Dense population
E.Sparse population
10. Which of the following statements is correct for the first
stage of the demographic transition model?
A. Birth rate high, death rate high and fluctuating, total
population low and constant
B. Birth rate high, death rate high, total population increasing
C. Birth rate low, death rate high, total population low and
constant
D. Birth rate low, death rate low, total population low
E. Birth rate high, death rate low, total population low and
constant

61. 11. Which of the following statements is correct for the third stage of the
demographic transition model?
A. Birth rate high, death rate falling, total population increasing
B. Birth rate low, death rate low, total population high and constant
C. Birth rate falling, death rate high, total population increasing
D. Birth rate falling, death rate falling, total population increasing
E. Birth rate high, death rate low, total population high and constant
12. Why is the birth rate low in stage four of the demographic transition
model?
A. Lots of people work in farming and there is a high infant mortality rate
B. Hospital and sanitation facilities are starting to be developed
C. Most people work away from farming in factories and are moving to the
cities
D. Diseases spread rapidly in insanitary conditions
E. More women are working and consumerism means that the cost of raising
children is very high

62. 13. Why is the death rate high and fluctuating in stage one of the
demographic transition model?
A. Lots of people work in farming and there is a high infant mortality rate
B. Hospital and sanitation facilities are starting to be developed
C. Most people work away from farming in factories and are moving to the
cities
D. Diseases spread rapidly in insanitary conditions
E. More women are working and consumerism means that the cost of raising
children is very high
14. Which one of these is not a problem associated with an overpopulated
country?
A. Lack of workers to exploit the country's natural resources
B. Overcrowded cities
C. Lack of suitable housing
D. Deforestation
E. High unemployment and/or underemployment rates

63. 15. When a population pyramid has a wide base it does not tend to
have.
A. A high birth rate
B. A high death rate
C. A low life expectancy
D. An ageing population
E. A high infant mortality rate
16. When a population pyramid has a narrow base it does not tend to
have...
A. A high fertility rate
B. A low death rate
C. A high life expectancy
D. An ageing population
E. A low infant mortality rate

64. 17. Which one of these is not a problem associated with an ageing society
A. Buildings have to be knocked down to make way for bungalows
B. Schools are overcrowded and many children must go without an education
C. Overcrowding within nursing homes
D. Hospital waiting lists lengthen
E. Nightclubs are forced to close down
18.
19. What name do we give to people who are too young or too old to work
A. Lazy
B. Dependents
C. Reliants
D. Benefits
E. Pensioners
20. How does one calculate the natural increase of a population
A. Birth Rate + Death Rate
B. Death Rate x Birth Rate
C. Birth Rate - Death Rate
D. Birth Rate divided by Death Rate
E. Death Rate divided by Birth Rate