1) Dams have historically contributed to agriculture, industry, and economic growth in Pakistan as part of the Indus Basin Project. 2) The Tarbela Dam, a case study for the World Commission on Dams, actually provided greater benefits than originally predicted, especially in hydropower production. 3) Dams were initially justified for irrigation but hydropower has become an important additional output, though their ability to mitigate floods is uncertain. 4) Pakistan faces challenges around water, energy, and food security exacerbated by climate change, population growth, and transboundary water conflicts that dams may help address if properly planned and implemented.

1. Dams and Development-Case of
Pakistan
Pervaiz Amir
Presented at GWP-IWMI Workshop on
Water, Food Security and Climate
Change, Colombo Sri Lanka 24-25
February, 2011

2. • Dams in Pakistan’ history, contribution to agriculture,
industrial and economic growth-part of Indus Package
• Tarbela Dam WCD case- actual benefits exceed predicted.
• Dam Justification irrigation but hydropower crucial output
• Dams neutralize flood impacts? Do they? 2010 US $ 10
billion originally stated as US $ 43 billion
• Climate Change, environmental flows, salvaging dead rivers
• Dams and Food Security
• Dams mega investments, delays even costlier
• Dams regulate water and symbolize development-
monuments of human endeavor
• Great plans but slow or no implementation

3. Actual vs. Predicted Benefits of Tarbela Dam (1998/M$)
Hydropower
Irrigation 3000
2500
2400
1500 1750 22.0 M
19.6 M
1500
Pedicted Actual

4. Status of Dams in Pakistan

5. Outlook of Hydropower Development

7. Challenge #1 Water Security
• Amount 145 MAF available to
Manage
• Water Security only 30 days
or less
• Population 2010 (180 million )
2035 (350 million)
• Global Warming and Glacier
melt (80% melting)
• Transboundary conflicts- Avg
vs. Actual flows
• Pakistan 12.35 MAF out of
145 MAF
• India 245 MAF out of 750
MAF
• Climate Change-
Treaties under
threat--Realities

8. Challenge #2 Energy Security
• Pakistan faces short fall of
5000 MW
• Energy Mix Hydro Nuclear
Oil
• Hydropower potential is
60,000 MW- alternatives yes
but no demonstrated
contribution
• Price Rs. 0.28/watt alternate
Rs 15 per watt
• Losing 5+% GDP annually due
to shortfalls
• Discontent, political turmoil
and social disharmony

9. Future direction will
increase Co2
emissions

10. Challenge # 3 Food Security
• IFPRI predicts 44-50% decline in
wheat and rice yields due to CC
• Pakistan facing acute water
shortages, rising temperatures and
uneven rainfall distribution
• Food insecurity leads to rising
poverty, marginalization and
extremism
• Dams can help stabilize food
production, increase crop intensity
and diversify agriculture
• Better to simultaneously invest in
agriculture and water
development-no use giving first
class costly water to third class
traditional agriculture

11. Water Flows on the Indus
Indus river Total Inflows at Tarbela Rim Station Table Indus River Kharif Inflows at Tarbela Rim
(1922-2009). Station (1922-2009)
80,00
95,00
70,00
85,00
75,00 60,00
65,00 50,00
(MAF)
(MAF)
55,00
40,00
45,00
30,00
35,00
25,00 20,00
15,00 10,00
5,00
0,00
61-62
63-64
65-66
67-68
69-70
71-72
73-74
75-76
77-78
79-80
81-82
83-84
85-86
87-88
89-90
91-92
93-94
95-96
97-98
99-00
2001-02
2003-04
2005-06
2007-08
61-62
63-64
65-66
67-68
69-70
71-72
73-74
75-76
77-78
79-80
81-82
83-84
85-86
87-88
89-90
91-92
93-94
95-96
97-98
99-00
2001-02
2003-04
2005-06
2007-08
Kharif + rabi Tarbela Kharif Tarbela Linéaire (Kharif Tarbela)
Linéaire (Kharif + rabi Tarbela)

12. Challenge # 4 Buffering Climate
Change
• Glacier Melt saved in dams or
in dangerous GLOF– hydraulic
challenges
• Why dams-- if flows projected
to decline
• Living with half empty glasses
• Dams during floods and
droughts
• Dams as instruments of
Planned Adaptation
• What if no climate change
takes place?? Are investments
in dams worthwhile

13. Challenge# 5 Stabilizing Economic
Growth/welfare/Equity/Distribution
• Its my dam too and so is my road!
• Gainers compensating losers
• Upfront investments in technology, agriculture,
planning and human capital
• Role of markets in allocating water and electricity
• National Engagement- the US I-40 experience
• Kinks from Climate Change e.g. flood aberrations
• Dams as breeding grounds for Malaria/Dengue
• New avenues and area development –beyond
status quo

14. 50 B Question!
• For Pakistan Climate Change is a matter of
Developing Water Security. The costs are US $
1.85/MAF and 25 MAF water development is
mere replacement works.
• The New financiers are in search of markets
and South Asia provides the population center
of the World
• Debt Servicing/write-off to address climate
change adaptation

15. New Breed of Water Managers who
address Questions of Public Policy
• How much debate on dams is desirable and when does
decision making process set in to finalize decisions on dams
that are backed by the constitution or in the case of India (the
legislature)?
• In each and every circumstance there is the upper lower
riparian issue since water is a flow which after dam building
gets converted into a stock?
• Benefit Sharing is an emerging area of economics –are
governments willing to part with the historical power play
including reforms in historical rights and entitlements when
water changes its historical free flow course?
• In Pakistan’s the rural vs. urban divide increases—where do
dams fit in? when they can eat up budgets in tune of almost
8-10% GDP of a country like Pakistan. Balancing such an
undertaking requires consensus building often becoming
difficult due to political polarization.

16. Lessons Learned from Dams in
• Indecision is costly
Pakistan
• Have served Pakistan’s interests well
• New Dams require extensive benefit sharing-especially those that
are contentious
• Environmental concerns only given “lip service”
• Mismanagement, governance and corruption are very serious
issues in the water sector-is it only Pakistan specific?
• Climate change is forcing response in water sector-it has to be both
demand and supply side driven
• Platforms that bridge the intellectual gap (post WCD) and guide the
process of achieving water security can play important role
• Capacity Building of Policy Institutions and Water Managers
• Way forward is in implementation, evaluating , adjusting and again
implementing hard choices with minimum time lag

17. Let us not have to tell our grand
children this is the way we left it for
you !
Thanks and may God bless you !