The Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) jointly hosted the International Conference on Climate Change and Food Security (ICCCFS) November 6-8, 2011 in Beijing, China. This conference provided a forum for leading international scientists and young researchers to present their latest research findings, exchange their research ideas, and share their experiences in the field of climate change and food security. The event included technical sessions, poster sessions, and social events. The conference results and recommendations were presented at the global climate talks in Durban, South Africa during an official side event on December 1.

1. S. Kiselev, R. Romashkin – Lomonosov
Moscow State University

2. Climate changes
Population
Income changes
Vulnerability
The dynamics of agriculture

4. Year + 0,65
Winter - 2,09
Spring + 0,74
Summer + 1,83
Autumn +1,86

5. Year + 0,44
Winter + 0,28
Spring + 0,53
Summer + 0,42
Autumn +0,54

6. Average speed of changes (trend) of temperature for January
(º С/10 year) 1976 по 2010

7. Average speed of changes (trend) of precipitation in Spring -
(mm/10 years) 1976 - 2010

9. expansion of cultivated increase of dangerous
area and increasing events (severe droughts,
lands suitable for forest fires, etc.)
agriculture increase of anomalies
increasing favorable increase of aridity for arid
period for vegetation areas (south of Russia,
south of Siberia)
increase of warm supply
lack of water resources
improving of wintering
degradation of soil fertility
for crops
9

10. Decade Total Population Rural Population Urban Population
Growth Rate Growth Rate Growth Rate
1960-1969 0.87 -0.95 2.45
1970-1979 0.58 -1.38 1.77
1980-1989 0.64 -0.71 1.24
1990-1999 -0.01 0.14 -0.06
2000-2009 -0.34 -0.32 -0.35

14. 2008 2009 2010
For all socio-demographic groups 185.1 162.7 187.4
For specific socio-demographic groups
- working-age population 200.4 175.9 202.2
- pensioners 146.9 129.4 148.9
- children 176.9 155.6 180.8
Ratio of per capita incomes to minimum cost of living,
percent 325.3 326.8 326.2

16. 8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Vegetable oils Sunflower Soybean Rape

17.
120
106,9 108,2
100
99,1 97,1
89,1 88,6
85,2 86,6 77,8
81,3
78,1 78,2
81,5
80
63,4
69,3
65,5
67,2
60,9
60 54,7
47,9
40
20
0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

18. All GCMs demonstrate the increase in
temperature for all parts of Russia (realistic!)

19. All models demonstrate the increase in
precipitation for most parts of Russia (realistic!)

20. Period of scenario implementation, years
Region 30-40 60-70 90-100 30-40 60-70 90-100
Feed Crops Grain Crops
North 22 32 31 26 24 13
North-West 21 24 30 22 12 22
Kaliningrad 22 22 20 34 25 29
Central 19 24 17 27 25 13
Volgo-Vyatka 21 30 19 20 26 11
Black Soil Center 20 24 7 15 15 -7
Volga River, North 24 30 8 16 19 -10
Volga River, South 5 14 1 7 30 20
Northern Caucasus 2 3 -7 -6 -7 -13
Urals 14 28 17 11 16 -7
Siberia, West 6 19 1 -7 -1 -23
Siberia, East 0 0 -4 -12 -18 -24
Far east 6 13 7 10 12 5
Russia 13 21 11 11 14 -1
Changes of yield in percentage of current level

21. GDP Per Capita Scenarios

22. Production Yield
Area Net Exports

23. Production Yield
Area Net Exports

24. 4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
-500
1994
1995
1996
1997
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
1998
2000
1999
1993
1990
1991
1992
-1000
Energy Industrial and Manufacturing
Use of solvents and other products Agriculture
Land use change and forestry Wastes

25. Resource saving technologies
New varieties of crops
Winter crops
Forestation
Irrigation
Special government policy (insurance programs,
safety net programs, support ag. research,etc.)
25