The document discusses several topics related to energy and society:
1) It describes the concepts of overshooting carrying capacity and exponential growth as they relate to humanity's energy demands outpacing the Earth's regenerative capacity.
2) It discusses the concept of "peak oil" - the point at which global oil production reaches its maximum level and then declines, and some key facts about past and predicted future oil production.
3) It examines issues related to peaking production of other fossil fuels like coal and uranium, and the challenges of transitioning to alternative energy sources as traditional fuels decline.
Presentation by Manish Bapna, Executive Vice President, World Resources Institute at the Brookings Executive Education seminar on “The Impact of the Chinese and Indian Economic Booms on the Environment” (part of 2-day program on Asia)
"Peak Oil - Myth or Reality?" by Jean Laherrère - ASPO FranceNicolas Meilhan
The term Peak Oil was created in 2000 after Jean Laherrère and Colin Campbell wrote an article in 1998 in Scientific American which title was "the End of Cheap Oil".
This paper was ignored until 2005 when oil price reached 50$/b anf fully accepted in 2008 when 140 $/b was reached. With the burst of shale oil, many papers have been published on the "Peak Oil Myth" and the fact that the USA would become energy independent thanks to the shale oil & gas revolution.
However the oil production peaked in many countries and the end of cheap oil is more than ever a reality that will strongly impact our economies. New oil projects with higher extraction costs require $100/b+ oil price to be profitable while oil demand (and GDP) contracts when oil price surpasses $120/b !
Web Mesh Agrobiodiversity Climate Water And Poverty Solutions 01 09Michael P Totten
Presentation on January 22, 2009, by Michael P Totten, Chief Advisor on Climate and Water at Conservation International, given tot the Los Angeles chapter of Bioneers. Interdisciplinary perspectives on solutions to climate catastrophe threat, species extinction threat, mass poverty, water shortages, oil and resource wars, using the Web tools for generating collective intelligence and social collaboration. Very positive outlook on seemingly intractable and irreversible perils confronting humanity this century. 13 Mb file. No voice over, but one with voice is forthcoming.
A Geological Perspective On Global WarmingPaul Schumann
By Peter Rose
The relative contribution of Man's activities, as opposed to Nature's activities,,to the observed recent rises in Earth temperatures, is unresolved. In addition to the oft-noted inability of climate modeling to reproduce the documented recent past, a major shortcoming of contemporary climate studies is that they rest upon very short time spans, whereas climate change considered from a geological perspective encourages much less anxiety about the climate future of the world. If it turns out that most observed global warming is the result of natural causes, as seems increasingly likely, proposed voluntary economic initiatives by Western nations to limit CO2 emissions will constitute a serious and unnecessary economic wound, self-inflicted at the worst possible time. Sunspot cycles suggest that we are about to enter -- indeed may have already begun -- an extended period of global cooling. Recent unsavory revelations (“Climate Gate”) have cast doubt on thedependability of the science underpinning Anthropogenic Global Warming.
Peter R. Rose (BS, MA, PhD, Geology, University of Texas at Austin) is a certified petroleum geologist who was Staff Geologist with Shell Oil Company; Chief, Oil and Gas Branch of the U.S. Geological Survey; and Chief Geologist and Director of Frontier Exploration for Energy Reserves Group, Inc. (now BHP Petroleum (Americas), Inc.). In 1980, he established his own independent oil and gas consulting firm, Telegraph Exploration, Inc. His clients include most major U.S. companies and prominent independents as well as many international firms and state oil companies. Dr. Rose has explored for oil and gas in most North American geological provinces and has published and lectured widely on U.S. resource assessment, basin analysis, play development, prospect evaluation, and risk and uncertainty in exploration. He has taught extensively at the professional level and was a 1985/1986 AAPG Distinguished Lecturer.
Presentation by Manish Bapna, Executive Vice President, World Resources Institute at the Brookings Executive Education seminar on “The Impact of the Chinese and Indian Economic Booms on the Environment” (part of 2-day program on Asia)
"Peak Oil - Myth or Reality?" by Jean Laherrère - ASPO FranceNicolas Meilhan
The term Peak Oil was created in 2000 after Jean Laherrère and Colin Campbell wrote an article in 1998 in Scientific American which title was "the End of Cheap Oil".
This paper was ignored until 2005 when oil price reached 50$/b anf fully accepted in 2008 when 140 $/b was reached. With the burst of shale oil, many papers have been published on the "Peak Oil Myth" and the fact that the USA would become energy independent thanks to the shale oil & gas revolution.
However the oil production peaked in many countries and the end of cheap oil is more than ever a reality that will strongly impact our economies. New oil projects with higher extraction costs require $100/b+ oil price to be profitable while oil demand (and GDP) contracts when oil price surpasses $120/b !
Web Mesh Agrobiodiversity Climate Water And Poverty Solutions 01 09Michael P Totten
Presentation on January 22, 2009, by Michael P Totten, Chief Advisor on Climate and Water at Conservation International, given tot the Los Angeles chapter of Bioneers. Interdisciplinary perspectives on solutions to climate catastrophe threat, species extinction threat, mass poverty, water shortages, oil and resource wars, using the Web tools for generating collective intelligence and social collaboration. Very positive outlook on seemingly intractable and irreversible perils confronting humanity this century. 13 Mb file. No voice over, but one with voice is forthcoming.
A Geological Perspective On Global WarmingPaul Schumann
By Peter Rose
The relative contribution of Man's activities, as opposed to Nature's activities,,to the observed recent rises in Earth temperatures, is unresolved. In addition to the oft-noted inability of climate modeling to reproduce the documented recent past, a major shortcoming of contemporary climate studies is that they rest upon very short time spans, whereas climate change considered from a geological perspective encourages much less anxiety about the climate future of the world. If it turns out that most observed global warming is the result of natural causes, as seems increasingly likely, proposed voluntary economic initiatives by Western nations to limit CO2 emissions will constitute a serious and unnecessary economic wound, self-inflicted at the worst possible time. Sunspot cycles suggest that we are about to enter -- indeed may have already begun -- an extended period of global cooling. Recent unsavory revelations (“Climate Gate”) have cast doubt on thedependability of the science underpinning Anthropogenic Global Warming.
Peter R. Rose (BS, MA, PhD, Geology, University of Texas at Austin) is a certified petroleum geologist who was Staff Geologist with Shell Oil Company; Chief, Oil and Gas Branch of the U.S. Geological Survey; and Chief Geologist and Director of Frontier Exploration for Energy Reserves Group, Inc. (now BHP Petroleum (Americas), Inc.). In 1980, he established his own independent oil and gas consulting firm, Telegraph Exploration, Inc. His clients include most major U.S. companies and prominent independents as well as many international firms and state oil companies. Dr. Rose has explored for oil and gas in most North American geological provinces and has published and lectured widely on U.S. resource assessment, basin analysis, play development, prospect evaluation, and risk and uncertainty in exploration. He has taught extensively at the professional level and was a 1985/1986 AAPG Distinguished Lecturer.
From Prints to Pixels: Looking and Living in the Age of Digital Aesthetics Li...Neal Stimler
This slide deck is associated with workshop at the Palmer Museum of Art on the campus of Penn State University, "From Prints to Pixels: Looking and Living in the Age of Digital Aesthetics."
Digital Aesthetics, Art, Life and Museums Symposium PrimerNeal Stimler
This text is a primer for a collaborative symposium at Penn State University on April 6, 2015, “Digital Aesthetics, Art, Life and Museums." The hashtag for the symposium is #psuda.
AP Human Geography: Unit 1 - Introduction to Geography: Guided NotesDaniel Eiland
These are guided notes to go along with Mr. Eiland's AP Human Geography Unit 1 Powerpoint. You can find the Powerpoint at the following link: http://www.slideshare.net/deilands/ap-human-geography-unit-1
I download this document from heinonline,through University of Colombo server. I wish to share this documents with my students in Public International Law course for academic purposes.
American Government and Civics Daily QuotationsDaniel Eiland
This is a presentation that includes daily quotations by people considered important to the American Political process. It will be used as an anticipatory set for High School Civics class.
AP Human Geography: Unit 3 - Cultural Geography: Part 1 SampleDaniel Eiland
This sample of Part 1 of the AP Human Geography Unit 3 Powerpoint includes 114 slides of information introducing concepts of culture, popular culture, and folk culture. It includes maps, higher-order thinking questions, vocabulary words, mind-mapping tools, and other resources to help educate your students on all of the necessary concepts for the AP Test.
Topics Covered: Cultural Geography, Cultural Ecology, Cultural Landscapes, Environmental Determinism, Possibilism, Environmental Perception, Cultural Determinism, Cultural Traits, Cultural Complex, Culture System, Culture Region, Cultural Realm, Cultural Hearths, Independent Inventions, Folk Culture Regions, Indigenous Cultures, Folk Music, Folk Architecture, Effects of Popular Culture and many others.
AP Human Geography: Unit 2 Powerpoint: Population and Migration (Sample)Daniel Eiland
Here is a sample from my Advanced Placement Human Geography Unit 2 Powerpoint I will be using to teach my classes this year. It is on Population and Migration. You can find the full version at http://tinyurl.com/eilandunit2.
AP Human Geography: Unit 1 - Introduction to GeographyDaniel Eiland
Here is the Advanced Placement Human Geography Unit1 Powerpoint I will be using to teach my classes this year. It includes the sections "Introduction to Geography", "Tools Geographers Use", and "The Five Themes of Geography". You can find the guided notes for this presentation here: http://www.slideshare.net/deilands/ap-human-geography-unit-1-13583828
AP Human Geography: Unit 4: Political Geography - Part 1: Territoriality and ...Daniel Eiland
This is a sample of Part one of my AP Human Geography: Unit 4 slideshow. The full slideshow can be purchased at http://www.teacherspayteachers.com/Store/Mr-Eiland
Oil Depletion & the Coming Global Energy Crisis, Seth Cook (June 2012)Beijing Energy Network
The 20th century was an era of cheap and abundant resources. Global energy supplies expanded dramatically. But in the early decades of the 21st century, we have already entered an era of scarce and expensive resources. In fact, in this century we may even see a contraction of global energy supplies, particularly of oil. We are perched on the verge of a global energy crisis, although very few people are aware of it, including energy experts.
From Prints to Pixels: Looking and Living in the Age of Digital Aesthetics Li...Neal Stimler
This slide deck is associated with workshop at the Palmer Museum of Art on the campus of Penn State University, "From Prints to Pixels: Looking and Living in the Age of Digital Aesthetics."
Digital Aesthetics, Art, Life and Museums Symposium PrimerNeal Stimler
This text is a primer for a collaborative symposium at Penn State University on April 6, 2015, “Digital Aesthetics, Art, Life and Museums." The hashtag for the symposium is #psuda.
AP Human Geography: Unit 1 - Introduction to Geography: Guided NotesDaniel Eiland
These are guided notes to go along with Mr. Eiland's AP Human Geography Unit 1 Powerpoint. You can find the Powerpoint at the following link: http://www.slideshare.net/deilands/ap-human-geography-unit-1
I download this document from heinonline,through University of Colombo server. I wish to share this documents with my students in Public International Law course for academic purposes.
American Government and Civics Daily QuotationsDaniel Eiland
This is a presentation that includes daily quotations by people considered important to the American Political process. It will be used as an anticipatory set for High School Civics class.
AP Human Geography: Unit 3 - Cultural Geography: Part 1 SampleDaniel Eiland
This sample of Part 1 of the AP Human Geography Unit 3 Powerpoint includes 114 slides of information introducing concepts of culture, popular culture, and folk culture. It includes maps, higher-order thinking questions, vocabulary words, mind-mapping tools, and other resources to help educate your students on all of the necessary concepts for the AP Test.
Topics Covered: Cultural Geography, Cultural Ecology, Cultural Landscapes, Environmental Determinism, Possibilism, Environmental Perception, Cultural Determinism, Cultural Traits, Cultural Complex, Culture System, Culture Region, Cultural Realm, Cultural Hearths, Independent Inventions, Folk Culture Regions, Indigenous Cultures, Folk Music, Folk Architecture, Effects of Popular Culture and many others.
AP Human Geography: Unit 2 Powerpoint: Population and Migration (Sample)Daniel Eiland
Here is a sample from my Advanced Placement Human Geography Unit 2 Powerpoint I will be using to teach my classes this year. It is on Population and Migration. You can find the full version at http://tinyurl.com/eilandunit2.
AP Human Geography: Unit 1 - Introduction to GeographyDaniel Eiland
Here is the Advanced Placement Human Geography Unit1 Powerpoint I will be using to teach my classes this year. It includes the sections "Introduction to Geography", "Tools Geographers Use", and "The Five Themes of Geography". You can find the guided notes for this presentation here: http://www.slideshare.net/deilands/ap-human-geography-unit-1-13583828
AP Human Geography: Unit 4: Political Geography - Part 1: Territoriality and ...Daniel Eiland
This is a sample of Part one of my AP Human Geography: Unit 4 slideshow. The full slideshow can be purchased at http://www.teacherspayteachers.com/Store/Mr-Eiland
Oil Depletion & the Coming Global Energy Crisis, Seth Cook (June 2012)Beijing Energy Network
The 20th century was an era of cheap and abundant resources. Global energy supplies expanded dramatically. But in the early decades of the 21st century, we have already entered an era of scarce and expensive resources. In fact, in this century we may even see a contraction of global energy supplies, particularly of oil. We are perched on the verge of a global energy crisis, although very few people are aware of it, including energy experts.
The world is using more energy than ever before, but most of it still comes from fossil fuels. We need to change course – and fast. This infographic explores if new technologies can put us on track for a clean energy future.
2. Overshooting Carrying Capacity
Overshoot occurs when
humanity's demand on
nature exceeds the
biosphere's supply, or
regenerative capacity.
(Catton 1980)
Carrying Capacity refers to
the population size of the
species that the
environment can sustain
indefinitely
3. Exponential Growth
Exponential Growth occurs when
the amount that something
increases is proportional to its
current size (or 'value').
This is a result of positive
feedback.
Example: The more people there
are, the more people will be
born.
The rate or percentage increase
may be constant.
4. Exponential Growth
You can think of Exponential Growth as SPEEDING UP:
1. The amount that is added growing larger over each unit of time
OR
2. The time shrinking between each additional unit of amount
added.
5. What is Peak Oil?
• Peak Oil production (aka Hubbert’s peak):
– the point at which oil extraction reaches its highest
level. After the peak, oil production declines.
– It is also the point at which half of oil supply (for a
well, a nation, or the world) is depleted.
– Many people believe energy production from
petroleum peaked already in 2005!
6. What is Peak Oil?
• Implication: Energy will
continue to become more and
more expensive!
– This does not mean we will ‘run
out’ of oil- at some point it will take
more energy to get the oil than the oil
produces.
– We use petroleum for
everything: our food,
pharmaceuticals, transportation,
etc.
– See http://dieoff.org
7. ‘Peak Oil’ Facts
Oil contributes to about 40 percent of energy production and supplies 90
percent of all transportation fuel (Korowicz 2010).
A barrel of oil, which can be extracted for a dollar, generates 25,000
hours of labor. $1 = 25,000 hours of labor.
Up until the 1950s, the United States was the “Saudi Arabia of oil”- it was
world’s largest exporter. US production, however, peaked in 1970 at 10.2
million barrels a day and subsequently declined.
Ten years later, domestic oil production was still in decline, despite the
fact that four times more oil wells had been drilled.
Currently the United States uses 25 percent of the world’s oil but
possesses only 2 percent of the world’s known reserves
1 calorie of food requires about 10 calories of hydrocarbon energy in the
US today.
8. ‘Peak Oil’ Facts
Worldwide discovery of oil peaked in 1964.
Today, there are about 50 countries that are producing less oil today than
in the past
CHEAP ENERGY IS ESSENTIAL FOR ECONOMIC GROWTH. TODAY SUPPLY IS
SLOWING DOWN, WHILE DEMAND IS SPEEDING UP!
10. Net Energy
• It costs energy to produce energy.
• Net Energy = Energy Returned On Energy Invested (EROEI).
When the EROEI of petroleum goes down to 1, petroleum
will no longer be market viable.
• The Principle of Lowest Hanging Fruit: we use up the
easiest to acquire sources of energy first. As time goes on,
our available net energy declines.
– There will always be oil in the ground, but at some point it will
take more energy to extract the oil than the energy produced by
the extracted oil.
Energy input Net Energy Energy output
11. ‘Drill Baby Drill’?
• What about the oil in the Arctic National
Wildlife Preserve (ANWR)? Can’t we drill there?
• At current rates of oil consumption, the ANWR
contains enough oil to power the US for only six
months. The Energy Information Administration
has estimated tapping ANWR would lower oil
prices by about 50 cents per barrel
12. Peak Coal
• US is the "Saudi Arabia of
coal“: US is the 2nd largest
producer of coal, after
China
• Coal production (per
weight) has not peaked, it
continues to increase
annually; however, total
amount of energy
generated from coal in the
US peaked in 1998.
• 30% decline in energy
content per weight since
1955.
13. Peak Coal
• Forecasts for peak coal production:
– Peak in 10 to 15 years (Energy Watch Group)
– Peak by 2020, and then begin a decline by
2050 (Uppsala Hydrocarbon Depletion Study Group)
Wyoming MTR site
14. Peak Uranium
• To replace the amount
of energy we currently
get from fossil fuels
with nuclear power, we
would need to build
about 10,000 of the
largest nuclear reactors.
• World Uranium supply
would then be depleted
in a couple decades.
Fallout from Fukushima
21. Per Capita Peak Production
Global Oil Production per capita
(1961-2003)
140
Million Barrels per Day per capita
124
108
92
76
60
1961 1972 1982 1993 2003
Year
World oil production per capita. 1960-2003. Source: Energy Energy
Information Administration (EIA). Population figures from Ecological
Footprint Network.
22. Growth in Energy Use
(1990-2006)
Growth in per capita Energy Consumption
% change (1990-2006)
20
Variables
United States
% change (kt oil equivalent)
OECD (without US)
15 China
10
5
0
-5
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006
Year
Growth in per capita Energy Consumption. US, OECD, China.
1990-2006. Source: World Bank.
23. Energy Use and Economic Growth
US Energy use vs US GDP
US Energy use (kt oil equivalent) logged
14.8
14.5
14.1
13.8
28.5 29.2 29.8 30.5
US GDP (constant 2000 US$) logged
Energy use vs GDP. United States. 1960-2009. Source: World Bank.
24. Energy Use and Economic Growth
World Energy use (kt of oil equivalent) logged
World Energy vs World GDP (1971-2009)
16.4
16.1
15.7
15.4
30.0 30.5 30.9 31.4
World GDP (constant 2000 US$) logged
World GDP vs. World Energy Use. 1971-2009. Source: World Bank.
25. Energy Use and Economic Growth
US GDP and Energy Use per capita (1960=1)
United States (1960-2008)
3.0
Variables
GDP pc
x Larger than in 1960 (=1)
Energy Use pc
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
1960 1973 1985 1998 2010
Year
*GDP per capita (constant 2000 US$) and Energy use per capita (kg of oil equivalent)
Per capita GDP and Energy Use. United States (1960-2008).
26. Energy Use and Economic Growth
World GDP and Energy Use per capita (1971=1)
(1971-2008)
1.8
Variables
GDP pc
x Larger than in 1971 (=1)
Energy Use pc
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
*GDP per capita (constant 2000 US$) and Energy use per capita (kg of oil equivalent)
Global per capita GDP and energy use (1971-2008)