Meeting the Challenge of Peak Oil at the Local Level
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Meeting the Challenge of Peak Oil at the Local Level
- 1. Peak Oil and its implications for Planning and the Economy Southern New England APA Conference Providence, Rhode Island October 21, 2011
- 4. Peak Oil = The end of ‘easy’ oil – not ‘running out’ The Deepwater Horizon accident – April, 2010
- 7. Introduction to Peak Oil Source: Robert L. Hirsch, SAIC
- 8. Source : US Rep. Roscoe Bartlett, Special Order Speech, Feb. 8, 2006 USA Oil Production, 1945 – 2006
- 9. Past discovery by ExxonMobil Discoveries vs. Production Global oil discoveries peaked in 1964. The last year we discovered more oil than we used was 1981. Today we’re using about four to five barrels of oil for every one barrel of oil discovered.
- 11. The latest evidence and projections World Crude Oil Production - January 2002 to September 2009
- 12. The latest evidence and projections
- 21. Planning and development in an energy constrained world James H. Kunstler’s take on how planning and development need to adjust in a post-peak world: Transportation : “ Think beyond the automobile ” Trains and other mass transit will be crucial if we don’t want to be limited to bicycling range. Agriculture : Farming will be a growth industry, but will require more human labor. We will need to grow a lot more food closer to population centers. Manufacturing : … will need to return to its place as a foundation of our economy. ‘Made in the USA’ will replace ‘Made in China’ (yeah!) More goods will need to be made locally and regionally. Land-Use : Far-flung sprawling large-lot subdivisions are out. Urban redevelopment and infill is in. Small cities situated near good agricultural land may actually fare quite well compared to many other parts of the USA, if they actively plan for the post-peak world .
- 25. Grass Roots Sustainability The Role of Government and Planning Professionals in Small City and Small Town Sustainability Initiatives Christopher J. Ryan, AICP, Ph.D. Southern New England APA Conference Providence, RI ~ October 2011
- 27. Predicaments and Drivers Peak Oil Climate Change Debt-Based Economy Growth Culture
- 49. “ Want of foresight, unwillingness to act when action would be simple and effective, lack of clear thinking, confusions of counsel, until the emergency comes, until self-preservation strikes its jarring gong – these are the features that constitute the endless repetition of history.” ~ Winston Churchill House of Commons, 1935
- 116. Questions?
Editor's Notes
- Good afternoon, my presentation is entitled, “GRASS ROOTS SUSTAINABILITY: The Role of Government and Planning Professionals in Small City and Small Town Sustainability Initiatives” … thank you for coming today [change slide]
- My agenda today covers six basic topics beginning with a summary of our predicaments and how sustainability is the only humane way to address them, and then progressing to: -- how we should approach our situation as if it were a risk management problem -- a summary of initiatives and movements that take this approach but also have other facets that we can learn from -- where government fits into this framework -- the role of planning and planners…what we can bring to the process -- and finishing up with the product, the plan, the can emerge from this process I want to leave you with at least four (4) takeaways: First, that there are a number of approaches to local sustainability planning but we need to standardize the criteria Second, that we cannot let a lack of resources prevent action Third, that planners can, and should, take a leadership role in setting standards, creating process, and outreach And Fourth, that a systems analysis and strategic planning approach are ideally suited for sustainability planning
- Debt-Based Economy: Requires perpetual growth but has led to extreme income inequalities…this was masked for a while by financial liberalization allowing consumption to continue until the levels of debt became unsustainable and saddles generations of working people with a lifetime burden of crushing debt obligations….of course this slowed consumption to not only pay down debt but also to merely survive. This led then to production contraction, job loss…. … .and to where we are today
- Sustainability should be a fairly simple concept: Humans rely on our natural environment to provide the essential elements of life: air, water, soil and the net primary production that is the basis for all foodstocks, a moderate climate, and so forth. Sustainability is the hypothetical harmonic balance and stasis of these human and biospheric supportive systems that allows humanity to provide equitably for present and future generations. Of course any definition must include the three E’s or three P’s which form the three legs of sustainability and the elements of the triple bottom line. But to me the definition of sustainability must not hint at the subjectivity of ecological sustainability for it is this leg that has no compromise if it to be genuine sustainability. There are countless definitions of sustainability beginning with the one developed for the 1987 Bruntland Commission Report….yet few of them are useful or robust….my favorite comes from Steven Veiderman READ SLIDE
- Regarding the dimensions of sustainability…this from the excellent PAS Report 565, Assessing Sustainability by Feiden and Hamin: We want to sustain communities as good places to live and places that offer good economic and other opportunities for inhabitants (social, economic, quality-of-life) We want to sustain the values of our society (social, cultural) We want to sustain the biodiversity of the natural environment (ecological) We want to sustain the ability of natural systems to provide the life supporting services rarely counted by economists (ecological and economic) Sustainability is measured using indicators and benchmarks are targets that allow progress to be followed…. But there are limitations of indicator-based programs include the effort required to establish and monitor indicators. This is particularly problematic, challenging, and daunting to smaller communities and those with few resources [change slide]
- Why should we pursue sustainability? Just a few of the reasons include: -- reducing the risks we face through our behaviors -- extending the viability of human culture -- equity and decent quality of life -- for ethical reasons based on shared responsibility for humanity and all of life……but there are other important considerations in the successful pursuit of sustainability Accountability: All stakeholders and participants understand what is being decided in the adoption of a plan Scale: Larger communities can pursue more complex agendas but they have more complex problems. Smaller communities can pursue more simple problems that fit their scale Resilience: The key to true sustainability is building community resilience and reducing overdependence on external systems. However, it’s unrealistic to believe that external dependence can be completely severed nor should communities want to do so as long as benefits accrue. Flexibility: Pursuit of sustainability also means building in flexibility and adaptability to adjust swiftly to changing circumstances as necessary.
- Regarding the risk management perspective as a justification for a sustainability program…. We try to minimize risk in our lives by being prepared the best we can and acquiring insurance for the unexpected such as for our homes, cars, our life, and health….we prepare for some public risks like disease, storms, and earthquakes… Why wouldn’t we take the same approach for our communities, our nation for more existential threats? Perhaps because of the sheer unpredictability of these events and the fact that they haven’t occurred yet. [change slide]
- Are our behaviors, our cultural practices too risky? Many would say that they are….the precautionary principle would be a valuable guide our local planning.
- In designing a sustainability program for a community, the particular characteristics of the community are important to take into consideration….one size does not fit all…. READ SLIDE
- A number of different groups and organizations pursuing sustainability understand that solutions must be “place specific” These include………READ SLIDE Two initiatives that I want to focus on, that have developed a significant inertia and following, include Relocalization and the Transition Initiative…. These initiatives have drawn from other historical movements and philosophies but have created a program
- Relocalization originated with Post Carbon Institute in early 2000’s and now embraced widely by people such as James Kunstler, Nate Hagens, John Cronin, Bill McKibben, Rob Hopkins, Daniel Lerch, Richard Heinberg, David Korten, Joel Salatin, Lisa Swallow Relocalization is a strategy that seeks to redesign local communities to: Be more energy independent and sustainable To create a carbon neutral society To produce more food and other goods locally To develop a stronger and more independent local economy (less leakage) To rebuild a sense of community and social capital Relocalized communities are based on: The production of food , energy , and other primary goods at the local level The growth and nurturing of local forms of exchange , governance , and culture A compact and walkable urban form Civility and civil discourse
- The transition initiative originated in Kinsale, Ireland in 2004 It uses a flexible set of tried and true real world principles and practices It follows a 12 step program and recognizes a set of basic premises including: Climate Change and Peak Oil require urgent action Life with less energy is inevitable …it is better to plan for it than be taken by surprise Industrial society has lost the resilience to be able to cope with energy shocks We have to act together and we have to act now Regarding the world economy and the consumptive patterns within it, as long as the laws of physics apply, infinite growth within a finite system (such as planet earth) simply isn't possible . Humans can call upon the same ingenuity and intelligence to navigate back down from the peak of the energy mountain that we used climbing the mountain. Planning and acting early enough , and using creativity and cooperation to unleash our local genius, we can build a future that could be far more fulfilling and enriching , more connected and more gentle on the earth than the lifestyles we live today.
- Relocalization spawned a number of “locals” including the Groton Local of which Tucker Smith will elaborate on next The transition initiative grew in England with initial programs in Totnes and Lewes and has spead across the globe with “transition towns” in Brattleboro, Newburyport, and hundreds of other communities
- As I noted, the transition initiative employs a 12 step model that begins with a small group of initiators who help raise awareness of the issues through speakers, films, and books The begin to build the group through individuals and by making connections to other local groups who may already be working on some small portion of community sustainability Once a critical mass is reached, the “great unleashing” occurs which is a celebratory event that kicks off the real work of forming groups and pursuing projects and programs that culminate in the development of a plan [change slide]
- The key to transition is the initial development of awareness and building bridges to other groups…and to see what leadership exists and who emerges as the process unfolds…. Building Awareness, Building Bridges Developing an awareness of the risks and predicaments within the community (films, books, discussions, speakers…) Connecting to existing community groups rather than trying to reinvent the wheel, taking it all on your shoulders Local Leadership and Organizing Assess local movement capital and the legacy of organizing and volunteering Are there existing leaders or groups in the community who could emerge to found a grass roots sustainability initiative? Consider sponsoring a local gathering to float the idea (CCAN)
- A “bottom-up” process based on local grassroots organization More likely be successful if the process is citizen-based or initiated In this case, government role should be clearly defined and generally relate to, Support, Funding, Resources, Tools With a weak local movement infrastructure, other models may be more successful (e.g. government or leadership driven)
- Relocalization or transition initiatives, as a type of local planning strategy, lead communities and organizations to become more resilient and less dependant on the highly volatile global system. Such communities are more likely to survive and thrive in a more sustainable and community-based setting. These pathways are implementable models of sustainability at the most essential, local level. The most effective community development strategies are designed and put into practice at the local level. Local sustainability initiatives can include a range of methods for assessment including indicators of various types….or not…based on scale and resources Most importantly, experience has shown that these programs remove or reduce the ideological baggage carried by “green” or “sustainability” programs and those where government is seen as “the solution.”
- You recall that one of a few takeaway’s I wanted to convey is that sustainability is an ideal discipline for the planning profession This is due to…. Planners technical expertise Our multidisciplinary perspective Our organizational and project management skills Our experience with facilitation and mediation And….our core philosophy of ensuring participation and inclusiveness Leadership: Planners have an opportunity, a narrow one, to seize the mantle in this multi-disciplinary area and establish a leadership role In order to establish leadership in this area, it will require something that planners are very good at: developing tools, standardization, and definitions Planners must also be willing to collaborate closely with other disciplines and with the public in order to develop the trust and legitimacy the leadership role requires
- READ SLIDE
- Acknowledge the addiction to growth: While critics suggest sugarcoating the threats, trends and circumstances need to be understood and acknowledged. We must still identify the growth culture as the problem as any addicts must recognize their addiction. Bad news must be followed by discussion and by identifying a clear path to a better future Be proactive but be prepared for the unexpected: Need to address a proactive agenda and a preparedness backup plan Sustainability is pursued regardless: Even if we adhere to the precautionary principle and it turns out that we were too cautious, we still result in a sustainable community and society, etc.
- SWOT Analysis: Connect to a systems framework for analysis Develop a vision and mission for the future (based on a fit between intersection of the SWOT domains should determine best course of action) Consider Theory U principles for “learning from the future as it emerges” or “Presencing” Use multiple scenarios to maximize flexibility and adaptability Development of goals, objectives, and performance measures (indicators?) Development of action strategies (policies, tasks, etc.) Implementation (operational or tactical plans) Evaluation of results (ongoing)
- Level of complexity is based on community scale and resources Holistic and dynamic approach to sustainability planning Link all local systems internally (and externally) to stocks and flow structures embedded in networks of positive and negative feedback loops Assess the behaviors of the systems across space and time Greatest benefit is the modeling process itself which teaches local leaders the interconnections and complexities of local systems