The document summarizes key points about peak oil and its implications. It discusses how the world's oil production will likely peak in the near future as existing oil fields decline, and global oil demand is expected to outpace declining production. This will lead to higher oil prices and economic difficulties as less oil becomes available to fuel continued growth. Planning and development will need to adapt to a future with less available energy by promoting conservation, local production, and reduced reliance on long distance transportation of goods and people.

1. Peak Oil and its implications for Planning and the Economy Southern New England APA Conference Providence, Rhode Island October 21, 2011

2. “ Anybody who believes exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist.” – Kenneth Boulding “ All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident.” – Arthur Schopenhauer “ The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function.” – Albert Bartlett Quotes for the post peak oil world

3. Why oil and natural gas are so important to our way of life Basic facts and trends of oil depletion When world oil production might peak Implications for economic growth, planning and development Topics

4. Peak Oil = The end of ‘easy’ oil – not ‘running out’ The Deepwater Horizon accident – April, 2010

5. The importance of Oil Oil is easily moved around the world, from its source (oil wells) to end consumers (gas stations, etc.) Oil provides : 40% of traded energy worldwide 90% of world and 95% of US transportation energy Oil is critical to : Industry and Commerce Modern Medicine Modern Agriculture ( 10 / 1 ratio hydrocarbons to food ) Oil is very “energy dense” in comparison to other energy sources. One gallon = 350 man hours of labor . Oil has enabled the world’s population to increase six-fold from 1900-today.

6. Some key numbers and concepts There are 42 gallons in a barrel of oil. USA consumption (2005 - 2007): 22 million barrels of oil per day (mbpd), 7.5 billion barrels per year (bbpy) World consumption (2005 - 2007): 85 mbpd - 30 billion barrels per year Reserves vs. rate of production Energy Returned Over Energy Invested ( EROEI ) or Net Energy

7. Introduction to Peak Oil Source: Robert L. Hirsch, SAIC

8. Source : US Rep. Roscoe Bartlett, Special Order Speech, Feb. 8, 2006 USA Oil Production, 1945 – 2006

9. Past discovery by ExxonMobil Discoveries vs. Production Global oil discoveries peaked in 1964. The last year we discovered more oil than we used was 1981. Today we’re using about four to five barrels of oil for every one barrel of oil discovered.

10. How close is Peak Oil? OPEC’s reserve claims are very likely to be exaggerated. 50% of the world’s oil is produced from just 100 mega-fields, most in the Middle-East. 80% of today’s oil production is from fields greater than 30 years old. Saudi Arabia is likely near its peak . Oil from currently producing fields ( the ‘easy oil ’) has been declining since 2005 (at 6.7% per year). World oil demand for 2020-2030 is forecast by the IEA and the World Bank at 115 – 120 mbpd. Demand for oil in China and India is still growing, despite the world-wide recession.

11. The latest evidence and projections World Crude Oil Production - January 2002 to September 2009

12. The latest evidence and projections

13. Non-Regular Oil, or, can Tar Sands save us? NRO : heavy oil, oil shale, tar sands Abundant – hundreds of billions of barrels of oil equivalent. Very low energy returned on energy invested (EROEI) though Very slow rate of production . Maximum likely to be no more than 5 million bpd (out of world 85+) Using natural gas to extract oil from tar sands is like “ feeding the dog steak and eating his ALPO ”. --- energy analyst Steve Andrews. It’s also as dirty as coal to mine and process.

14. What about alternative energy sources? All renewable sources = ~ 6% of US energy supply Solar and wind contribute less than 1% of US energy. Ramping these up to even partially replace the energy supplied by oil and natural gas will be an enormous and expensive endeavor. Yet, we should still install as much solar and wind power as possible. Other than biomass, these sources produce electricity only, not liquid fuels. Hydrogen is currently a net energy loser – an energy carrier, not an energy source

15. Richard Heinberg’s 5 Axioms of Sustainability Any society that continues to use resources unsustainably will fail. ( See Jared Diamond’s book “Collapse” for many examples. ) Growth in population and rates of consumption cannot be sustained indefinitely on a finite planet. Renewable resources must be consumed at a rate less than or equal to that of natural replacement. Consumption of non-renewable resources must decline at a rate greater than or equal to the rate of depletion. Wastes introduced into the environment must be minimized and rendered harmless to biosphere functions .

16. Can we ‘grow on’ like this forever? Economic growth requires continual growth in net energy . There is a direct correlation between economic growth and the availability of energy, especially oil. All money is loaned into existence as new debt, which requires economic growth to finance. We pay for today’s debt with tomorrow’s ( projected ) growth , but can this go on forever? What happens when an economic system that requires growth to function collides with a real world that can no longer supply the ever expanding energy needed to fuel that growth? We’ll find out soon…

17. Can we ‘grow on’ like this forever? Are there limits to growth? Other factors contributing to reaching the limits to growth: Increasing costs of natural disasters resulting from a destabilized global climate. Known deposits of many critical minerals (rare earths, etc.) will be exhausted within 20+ years. New ore deposits are getting harder to find, more remote, deeper down, more dilute or all of the above. Increasing the production of biofuels will incur increasing economic and environmental costs / low EROEI.

18. A highly recommended internet resource on these topics www.ChrisMartenson.com A website exploring the relationship between the economy, peak oil and energy, the environment and likely future scenarios for the United States and the World. Contains an excellent free video primer – ‘The Crash Course’ If you want to understand the relationship between exponential growth curves, the money supply, debt, inflation, and why the next 20 years are unlikely to be like the last 20 years, you need to take the ‘Crash Course’. Other economic and energy experts also sounding the alarm : Richard Heinberg, Herman Daly, Albert Bartlett, Lester Brown, Richard Douthwaite, and many more…

19. Implications of Peak Oil for this decade Growing gap between supply and demand, leading to: Oil prices will trend ever upward, except when recessions trigger ‘demand destruction’ (i.e. 2009) Oil prices will be volatile depending on the economy, world events, weather, etc. Transportation costs will rise. Manufactured products will become more expensive, esp. those shipped long distances. The cost of food will rise. Government budgets at all levels will be affected by rising fuel costs and economic contraction.

20. What can we do to prepare? The bottom line for our future: There will be less energy available, especially liquid fuels Mobility will be reduced compared to today Economic difficulties during the transition to a smaller-scaled sustainable economic system What we need to start doing: Cut back on fossil fuel use Conserve energy Bring producers and consumers closer together Re-consider long-range plans and planning tools that assume unlimited energy for economic development, transportation & agriculture

21. Planning and development in an energy constrained world James H. Kunstler’s take on how planning and development need to adjust in a post-peak world: Transportation : “ Think beyond the automobile ” Trains and other mass transit will be crucial if we don’t want to be limited to bicycling range. Agriculture : Farming will be a growth industry, but will require more human labor. We will need to grow a lot more food closer to population centers. Manufacturing : … will need to return to its place as a foundation of our economy. ‘Made in the USA’ will replace ‘Made in China’ (yeah!) More goods will need to be made locally and regionally. Land-Use : Far-flung sprawling large-lot subdivisions are out. Urban redevelopment and infill is in. Small cities situated near good agricultural land may actually fare quite well compared to many other parts of the USA, if they actively plan for the post-peak world .

22. Relocalization “ Relocalization ” means a return to local and regional production of essential goods and services, including: Food production and distribution (top priority) Water supply (top priority) Heating Transportation Emergency Services Health Care Manufacturing The best possible outcome will require planning and coordination at all levels, ranging from the personal, to the community, state, national and international.

23. Some resources on peak oil, smart development and sustainability Books to get you started: The Party’s Over, Richard Heinberg Powerdown , Richard Heinberg The End of Growth , Richard Heinberg The Crash Course , Chris Martenson Post Carbon Cities , Daniel Lerch, editor The Long Emergency , James H. Kunstler Websites : www.energybulletin.net www.chrismartenson.com www.theoildrum.com www.peakoil.net (ASPO’s official site) www.postcarbon.org (relocalization) www.grotonlocal.org Mark Archambault: 603-881-8591 [email_address]

25. Grass Roots Sustainability The Role of Government and Planning Professionals in Small City and Small Town Sustainability Initiatives Christopher J. Ryan, AICP, Ph.D. Southern New England APA Conference Providence, RI ~ October 2011

26. Agenda Sustainability and Our Predicaments: A summary of the challenges and how seeking sustainability is the only humane path to a livable world The Lens of Risk Management: The need to apply a risk model to our predicaments Movements That Inspire Action: Key movements, building a local initiative through awareness, coalition building, leadership Where Government Fits In: As partners ideally and leaders as needed The Role of Planning and Planners: Leadership, standardization, collaboration… The Plan: Draw from model participatory movements, use of an interdisciplinary strategic planning approach, a systems-based sustainability framework, and holistic programmatic criteria

27. Predicaments and Drivers Peak Oil Climate Change Debt-Based Economy Growth Culture

28. Sustainability A fairly simple concept…..? There are many definitions of sustainability beginning with 1987 Bruntland Commission report My favorite: “… a community’s control and prudent use of all forms of capital—nature’s capital, human capital, human-created capital, social capital, and cultural capital—to ensure, to the degree possible, that present and future generations can attain a high degree of economic security and achieve democracy while maintaining the integrity of the ecological systems upon which all life and all production depends.” ~ Steven Veiderman in Pirages, 1996.

29. Sustainability: Dimensions, Indicators, Benchmarks ( from Feiden and Hamin, 2011; PAS Report 565) Dimensions of Sustainability Sustain communities as good places to live Sustain the values of our society Sustain the biodiversity of the natural environment Sustain ecosystem services rarely counted by economists Indicators and Benchmarks Indicators : Quantitative or qualitative measurement tools (Feiden and Hamin, 2011) Benchmarks: References or targets for sustainability Limitations: Effort, resources, infrastructure

30. Sustainability Why Pursue Sustainability? Risk Mgt : To reduce the risks posed by our predicaments Extend (indefinitely?) the human experiment Desire for a high and equitable quality of life for ourselves and succeeding generations (and all this entails) Ethics : a strong sense of responsibility and ownership for the predicaments Other Important Considerations Accountability Scale Resilience Flexibility

31. Risk Management Focus We seek to minimize risk through preparations and purchasing insurance for: Homeowners or Renters (fire, wind damage, earthquake, etc) Car and Other Vehicles (collision, theft, liability) Life (term, permanent: whole or universal life, etc.) Flood (in addition to homeowners) Health (comprehensive, scheduled, public) We prepare for other types of risk in the public domain: Public Health (epidemic, pandemic) Weather (winter storms, hurricane, tornado, floods) Geology (earthquakes, tsunami, volcanism) Social/Political (terrorism, protests, nuclear weapons) Why not take the same approach for our communities for more existential threats? Why not factor potential major disruptions into our planning horizon?

32. Are our behaviors, our cultural practices too risky? The Precautionary Principle “ If an action or policy has a suspected risk of causing harm to the public or to the environment, in the absence of scientific consensus that the action or policy is harmful, the burden of proof that it is not harmful falls on those taking the action .” (Wikipedia)

33. One Size Does Not Fit All Approaching community sustainability is often a matter of: Fiscal Capital: Large or Small budgets Human Resources: Staff Social and Community Capital: Is Community Fragmented or Close Knit? Movement Capital: Volunteer Legacy? Intellectual/Skills Capital: Experts in the Community Pragmatism: Candid consideration of both opportunities and threats These factors may determine the best approach a specific community should consider taking.

34. Organizations, Groups, Philosophies Inspiring Action Deep Ecology (Arne Næss) The Natural Step (Karl-Henrik Robèrt) Ecological Design Regenerative Design Biomimicry (Jenine Benyus) Hannover Principles, Sanborn Principles Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) Permaculture (Holmgren and Mollison) Theory U (Scharmer) Relocalization (PCI) Transition Initiative (Rob Hopkins)

35. Relocalization Originated with Post Carbon Institute in early 2000’s Relocalization is a strategy that seeks to redesign local communities to be resilient and sustainable…but not completely self-sufficient or isolated Relocalizing communities pursue, for example: Local food and energy The growth and nurturing of local culture and exchange A compact and walkable urban form Civility and civil discourse

36. Transition Initiative The Transition Model is a process originated in Kinsale, Ireland in 2004 Uses a flexible set of real world principles and practices developed over time though experimentation and observation of communities as they drive forward to build local resilience and reduce carbon emissions. These initiatives, based on 12 key steps , recognize a set of basic premises: Climate Change and Peak Oil require urgent action Life with less energy is inevitable … We’ve lost the resilience to be able to cope with energy shocks We have to act together and we have to act now I nfinite growth within a finite system simply isn't possible Source : The Transition Initiatives Primer (Brangwyn & Hopkins)

37. Model Programs The “Groton” Relocalization Model Small discussion group Two-day education/awareness workshop Develop loose coordinating committee Develop strong, project-oriented subcommittees Healthy consideration of both proactive projects and pragmatic preparedness See article in December 2008 Planning Magazine Transition Initiative Model Twelve (12) steps to transition Similar to “Swamp Yankee” process Includes a time-delimited steering committee Concludes with an energy descent action plan (EDAP)

38. Key Steps in Transition Initiative Model Setting up the steering group Awareness/Consciousness raising Networking/Laying the foundation Organize a “Great Unleashing” Steering group dissolved, new created, form working groups Develop a project orientation Conduct visioning exercises Facilitate a “Great Re-skilling” Build a bridge to local government Honor the elders Let it go where it wants to go Create an Energy Descent Plan Adapted from the 12 Steps of Transition Initiatives; Transition Initiatives Primer; 2008

39. Local Program Essentials Building Awareness, Building Bridges Developing an awareness of the risks and predicaments Connecting to existing community groups Local Leadership and Organizing Local movement capital Existing leaders Consider sponsoring a local gathering to float the idea

40. Initiative Leadership and Government A “bottom-up” process, local grassroots organization Success driven by strong citizen direction Government provides support, funding, resources, tools Yet weak local grassroots sector still has pathways

41. Relocalization, Transitioning, and Planning Relocalization and Transition Initiatives: a strategy and a process to help communities become more resilient. Implementable models of sustainability at the most essential, local level Strategy: based on scale and resources Removes the ideological baggage

42. The Role of Planning and Planners Ideal Profession to Pursue Sustainability Seek Leadership Role Establish Standardization Facilitate Participation and Collaboration

43. Local Planning Sectors From: www.relocalizations.com website; January 2011 Local Food Security Energy Security Natural Security (Ecosystem Health) Economic Development, Trade, and Currency Infrastructure (incl. water supply, waste management…) Transportation Spirituality Health Care (incl. preventative localized medicine) Arts and Culture Community Education (holistic and humility, continuous monitoring) Social Development and Human Resources Urban Design and Land Use Architecture and Building Design Prudent Limited Governance Prudent Preparedness (disasters, unrest, resource scarcity, etc.) Putting it all Together (Development of an Action Plan)

44. The Plan What do we call it? Energy Descent Action Plan Relocalization or Transition Plan Sustainability Plan Comprehensive or Master Plan How do we do it? Data collection: Community inventory and energy vulnerability assessment and a broader post-carbon SWOT analysis Intense Public Participation Maintain public access to plan development (Wiki, website Develop an implementable plan Assign specific tasks, timelines, funds

45. The Plan The plan should: Consider the widest range of community activities to capture the “system” Have significant and sizeable support from the public and stakeholders—a problem that we planners have had great difficulty achieving Be conducted whenever the community is ready… Stress opportunity, prevention, precaution…not sacrifice or hardship

46. Core Assumptions Acknowledge the addiction to growth as a first step Be proactive but be prepared for the unexpected Sustainability is pursued regardless of how predicaments play out

47. Strategic Planning Employ an Interdisciplinary Strategic Planning The process of developing a long-term plan to guide an organization towards a clearly articulated mission, goals and objectives. A process of assessing where an organization is presently, ascertaining the challenges and opportunities that present themselves, and determining what destination is most desirable and how to get there. Strategic Planning Steps SWOT Analysis: Connect to a systems framework for analysis Vision and mission for the future Consider Theory U principles Multiple scenarios (flexibility and adaptability) Goals, objectives, and performance measures (indicators) Action strategies Implementation Evaluation Source: Adapted from Bryson and Einsweiler, 1988

48. Systems-Based Sustainability Framework Level of complexity is based on community scale and resources Holistic and dynamic approach to sustainability planning Link all local systems internally (and externally) to stocks and flow structures embedded in networks of positive and negative feedback loops Assess the behaviors of the systems across space and time Greatest benefit is the modeling process itself

49. “ Want of foresight, unwillingness to act when action would be simple and effective, lack of clear thinking, confusions of counsel, until the emergency comes, until self-preservation strikes its jarring gong – these are the features that constitute the endless repetition of history.” ~ Winston Churchill House of Commons, 1935

50. Just a Few Resources…. http://www.livingeconomies.org/ http://steadystate.org/ www.transitionnetwork.org http://www.transitionculture.org http://transitionus.org/ http://www.postcarbon.org http://www.energybulletin.net/ www.dynamiccities.squarespace.com http://www.feasta.org/ http://ineteconomics.org/ http://www.cnu.org http://www.usgbc.org/ http://www.naturalstep.org/ http://www.deepecology.org/ http://www.permaculture.org/ http://www.presencing.com/ http://biomimicry.net/ http://www.aia.org/about/initiatives/AIAS075425 http://blogs.planning.org/sustainability/2011/02/17/apas-sustainable-community-planning-interest-group/ http://www.planning.org/policy/guides/adopted/sustainability.htm http://www.growthbusters.org/ http://www.slowfood.com/ http://www.slowmoney.org/ http://www.walkable.org/ http://www.worldwatch.org/vsonline

116. Questions?