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Impact of Chinese and Indian Economic Booms on the Environment

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Presentation by Manish Bapna, Executive Vice President, World Resources Institute at the Brookings Executive Education seminar on “The Impact of the Chinese and Indian Economic Booms on the Environment” (part of 2-day program on Asia)

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Impact of Chinese and Indian Economic Booms on the Environment

  1. IMPACT OF CHINESE AND INDIANECONOMIC BOOMS ON THEENVIRONMENT Manish Bapna Executive Vice President, WRI (Photo: Andreas/Flickr)
  2. AGENDA1. WRI Overview2. China and India’s Rising Economic Power3. Resource Snapshots4. Deep Dives5. Politics Going Forward
  3. WRI’S MISSION | To move humansociety to live in ways that protectEarths environment and its capacityto provide for the needs and aspirationsof current and future generations.
  4. WRI’S WORK | We work withgovernments, companies, and civil societyto build solutions to urgent environmentaland development challenges.
  5. WRI’S APPROACH Managing for Results Scaling IMPACT Analysis Partnerships
  6. WRI GLOBAL PRESENCE Institutional Project staff on ground, deep partnership, and/or project office At least one partner
  7. AGENDA1. WRI Overview2. China and India’s Rising Economic Power3. Resource Snapshots4. Deep Dives5. Politics Going Forward (Photo: World Bank Photo Collection/Flickr)
  8. GDP GROWTH: WHERE NEXT? 16 14 12 China 2013 (8.2%)GDP growth (%) 10 8 6 India 4 2013 (5.9%) 2 0 1994-2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013(IMF, 2012)
  9. SHIFTING POWERS
  10. EXPLOSION OF THE MIDDLE CLASS
  11. EXPLOSION OF THE MIDDLE CLASS 3 billion added by 2030 90% of growth in Asia – mostly India and China (Photo: ben124/Flickr)
  12. CHINESE CITIES GROWING QUICKLY530 Million people living in cities in 2005 78% urban930 Million people living in cities in 2025 contribution to GDPINDIAN CITIES SLOWER315 Million people living in cities in 2008 39% Urban contribution to530 Million people living in cities in 2025 GDP(McKinsey Global Institute 2012, )
  13. ARE WE RUNNING OUT?Price trends of major commodity bundles (real 2005 dollars) 250 Food Energy Timber 200 Fertilizers Metals and Minerals Price in real 2005 dollars 150 100 50 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010(WRI chart using World Bank data, 2012)
  14. CHINA DRIVES GLOBAL CONSUMPTIONShare of the world total 53% 47% 48% 45% 28% Iron Ore Cement Steel10% Coal CO2 GDP
  15. AND INDIA IS A SIGNIFICANT PLAYERShare of the world total 8% 6% 5% 4% 3% Coal CO2 Steel GDP Oil
  16. CHINA’S ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATIONIS MASSIVELY COSTLY 10Cost of environmental degradation as 9.2% OF GDP 8 % of GDP equivalent 6 4 2 0(World Bank reports, 2005-2012)
  17. AGENDA1. WRI Overview2. China and India’s Rising Economic Power3. Resource Snapshots4. Deep Dives5. Politics Going Forward
  18. COAL | PROPOSED NEW COAL POWER CAPACITY(WRI, 2012)
  19. COAL | PROPOSED NEW COAL POWER CAPACITY INDIA(WRI, 2012)
  20. COAL | PROPOSED NEW COAL POWER CAPACITY CHINA INDIA(WRI, 2012)
  21. COAL | COAL DEVELOPMENT AND WATER RISK
  22. COAL | NEGATIVE HEALTH IMPACTS Average PM 2.5 Concentrations 2008 - 2010
  23. NATURAL GAS | SHALE GAS PUTS DOWNWARDPRESSURE ON NATURAL GAS PRICES 10 2009Average Henry Hub spot price ($) 8 6 4 2 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030(EIA, 2009-2012)
  24. NATURAL GAS | SHALE GAS PUTS DOWNWARDPRESSURE ON NATURAL GAS PRICES 10 2009 2010Average Henry Hub spot price ($) 8 6 4 2 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030(EIA, 2009-2012)
  25. NATURAL GAS | SHALE GAS PUTS DOWNWARDPRESSURE ON NATURAL GAS PRICES 10 2009 2010Average Henry Hub spot price ($) 8 2011 6 4 2 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030(EIA, 2009-2012)
  26. NATURAL GAS | SHALE GAS PUTS DOWNWARDPRESSURE ON NATURAL GAS PRICES 10 2009 2010Average Henry Hub spot price ($) 8 2011 6 2012 4 2 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030(EIA, 2009-2012)
  27. NATURAL GAS | SHALE GAS RESERVES 100 – 500 trillion ft3 500- 1000 trillion ft3 1,000 + trillion ft3 N.B. Estimates for Russia and the Middle East are not included(EIA, 2011)
  28. RENEWABLE ENERGY | CHINA LEADSRenewable energy installed capacity 140 120 100 Gigawatts 80 60 40 20 0 China China United Germany Spain U.S. Germany Spain ItalyItaly Japan Japan India India France France Brazil Brazil States(Pew, 2012)
  29. RENEWABLE ENERGY | INDIATotal Invested in 2011: $10.2 billionDistribution by Sector, 2005 – 2011 15% 2% Wind Solar Biofuels 52% Other Renewables 31%
  30. RENEWABLE ENERGY | CHINATotal invested in 2011: $45.5 billionDistribution by Sector, 2005 – 2011 3% 1% 13% Wind Solar 14% Other Renewables Biofuels 69% Efficiency & low carbon Tech/services
  31. RENEWABLE ENERGY | CHINA’S GOALS FOR 2020 160 120 GW of Energy Installed capacity 80 Target 40 0 Wind Biomass Solar(Pew, 2012)
  32. RENEWABLE ENERGY | INDIA’S GOALS FOR 2012 20 16 GW of Energy 12 Installed capacity 8 Target 4 0 Wind Biomass Solar(Pew, 2012)
  33. WATER | BASELINE WATER STRESS
  34. WATER | WHERE FLOOD RISK IS GREATEST
  35. WATER | WHERE DROUGHT THREATENS
  36. FOOD | WATER FOR AGRICULTURE IN 2025
  37. FOOD | CROP YIELDS UNDER THREAT (World Bank, World Development Report 2010)
  38. FORESTS | DEMAND DRIVES GLOBAL DEFORESTATION
  39. FORESTS | POTENTIAL EXTENT Potential Extent of Forests and Woodlands Where forests would grow if climate and soils were the only constraint
  40. FORESTS | CURRENT EXTENT Current Extent of Forests and Woodlands Where they are today
  41. FORESTS | RESTORATION OPPORTUNITIES
  42. CITIES | INDIA’S AIR POLLUTION Thousand premature 630,000 deaths from air pollution in 2010 78% Of Indian cities exceeding PM10 limits(Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation 2012, )
  43. CITIES | CHINA’S AIR POLLUTION Days in January 14 with AQI “very unhealthy” or “hazardous” January’s average199 PM 2.5 air quality index – “unhealthy”
  44. AGENDA1. WRI Overview2. China and India’s Rising Economic Power3. Resource Snapshots4. Deep Dives • Climate Change • Resource Consumption • Clean Energy Trade War5. Politics Going Forward
  45. CLIMATE CHANGE | TOTAL & PER CAPITA EMISSIONS 12,000 30 10,000 25 MT CO2e per Capita 8,000 20MT CO2e Total 6,000 15 4,000 10 2,000 5 0 0
  46. THEY MUST ACT AND THEY AREAmbition in China’s 12th Five Year Plan ↓16% ↓17% Energy intensity Carbon intensity 11% ↑1.25 M Non-fossil fuel hectare increase in energy domestic forest coverSources: Deborah Seligsohn on ChinaFAQs; The Climate Group; Reuters
  47. CHINA’S CARBON TRADING PILOTS Carbon Trading Pilots Low-Carbon Provinces & Cities
  48. THEY MUST ACT AND THEY AREIndia’s National Action Plan for Climate Change ↓20-25% Emissions intensity reduction by 2020 under 2005 levels20 GW 98 MTSolar Power CO2-eq. savings byinstalled by 2022 2015 from energy efficiency by 2020
  49. THEY MUST ACT AND THEY ARE - TBCIndia’s National Action Plan for Climate Change• PAT Scheme• Carbon Tax on coal (about $1 per ton)• Feed in Tariffs (FITs) for Solar and Wind
  50. THEY WILL BE HURT Weather: Typhoons and heat waves have increased in frequency and intensity Sea-Level Rise: projected increases would inundate thousands of kilometers Water: increase flooding and drought expected associated with melting glaciers and permafrost(Photo: Bert van Dijk/Flickr)
  51. SHIFTING POLITICS - BASIC
  52. SHIFTING POLITICS “Any attempts to… recategorize developed and developing countries would delay progress…with nothing to come at the end.” – China submission to UNFCCC Process, March 2013
  53. AGENDA1. WRI Overview2. China and India’s Rising Economic Power3. Resource Snapshots4. Deep Dives • Climate Change • Resource Consumption • Clean Energy Trade War5. Politics Going Forward
  54. INCREASING OVERSEAS INVESTMENT
  55. 50% foreign direct investment going to extractive industries $16bn 2011 Chinese investments in Africa (Photo: ENOUGH Project/Flickr)
  56. INCREASING OVERSEAS INVESTMENT
  57. COAL | U.S. COAL EXPORTS ARE RISING (2002 = 1.0) 3.5 3.0 2.5Relative to 2002 2.0 1.5 EXPORTS 1.0 0.5 CONSUMPTION 0.0 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 (EIA, 2012)
  58. AGENDA1. WRI Overview2. China and India’s Rising Economic Power3. Resource Snapshots4. Deep Dives • Climate Change • Resource Consumption • Clean Energy Trade War5. Politics Going Forward
  59. CLEAN ENERGY TRADE WITH CHINA The size of U.S.-China TradeImports from China Imports from China Total Exports to China Other Exports to China Solar 0 100 200 300 400 500 Wind Billions of US dollars 0 100 200 300 400 500 (Pew Research Center 2012)
  60. CLEANTECHTRADE WITH CHINAAreas of DisputeU.S. tariffs on solar panelsand wind towers importedfrom ChinaChinese conducting an anti-dumping and subsidyinvestigation on importedpolysilicon from the US,EU and S. Korea
  61. CLEAN ENERGY TRADE WITH CHINAAreas of Progress Areas of Progress on Trade (all is not bleak)
  62. CLEAN ENERGY TRADE WITH CHINAGoing ForwardCompetitiveness in clean tech depend significantly on factors outsidetrade • Creating markets for low-carbon power • Financing companies • Creating new knowledge • Providing clear regulation
  63. CLEAN ENERGY TRADE WITH INDIAHiccups Ahead?US Challenging Local-Content Requirements in the National Solar Mission
  64. AGENDA1. WRI Overview2. China and India’s Rising Economic Power3. Resource Snapshots4. Deep Dives5. Politics Going Forward
  65. 18TH NATIONAL CONGRESSOF THE COMMUNIST PARTYOF CHINA, NOVEMBER 2012“We must fully implement theoverall plan for promotingeconomic, political, cultural, social and ecological progress.”- PRESIDENT HU (Photo: Remko Tanis/Flickr)
  66. THEY MUST ACT AND THEY ARE“Faster, More Inclusive, and Sustainable Growth” “No development process can afford to neglect the environmental consequences of economic activity, or allow unsustainable depletion and deterioration of natural resources” - Indian Planning Commission’s 12th Five Year Plan
  67. GEARING UP FOR NEXT ELECTIONS IN 2014 What role for the environment?(Photo: Al Jazeera English/Flickr)
  68. IMPACT OF CHINESE AND INDIANECONOMIC BOOMS ON THEENVIRONMENT Manish Bapna Executive Vice President, WRI (Photo: Andreas/Flickr)
  69. DRIVING GLOBAL CONSUMPTIONShare of the world total 50% 40% 30% India China 20% 10% 0% GDP CO2 Steel Coal Timber Palm Oil Fish(World Bank reports, 2005-2012)

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