Web Mesh Agrobiodiversity Climate Water And Poverty Solutions 01 09

Gathering Data
& Harvesting
Collective
Intelligence

Bias runs deep: Deny, Delay & Do Nothing

Senator James Inhofe (R-OK)

Evangelical James Dobson Rush Limbaugh CEO Lee Raymond

“The best way to predict your
future is to create it!”
Abraham Lincoln

“The long-term threat of climate change,
which, if left unchecked, could result in
violent conflict, terrible storms, shrinking
coastlines, and irreversible catastrophe.”
Barack Obama

The Virtuous Cycle
of Green Innovation

California Green Innovation Index 2009, Next 10, www.next10.org/

4 TRENDS – CHALLENGES & OPPORTUNITIES

WWW MESH
CLIMATE CATASTROPHE

FOOD/WATER SHORTAGES MASS POVERTY

Climate Solution Resources

www.climateprogress.org/

www.realclimate.org/ www.aclimateforlife.org/

Humans put as much CO2 into the atmosphere every 44 hours

1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption in Philippines

Losing Nature’s “Insurance Capacity”

Figure shows declining insurance industry capacity to absorb weather-related
natural disasters. Curves show ratio of global weather-related property losses
to total property/casualty premiums over the past quarter-century, indexed to
average 1980 levels. Source: Evan Mills, Lawrence Berkeley National Lab

$2.5 trillion
almost a quarter of
the US economy
is at risk from the large forest wildfires have tripled and area burned increased >5-fold since

weather the 1980s, burning 5x longer, and wildfire season has lengthened 2/3rd.

Unintended Consequences – Geo-engineering

A significant fraction of CO2 emissions remain in the
atmosphere, and accumulate over geological time spans of
hundreds of thousands of years, raising the lurid, but real
threat of extinction of humanity and most life on earth.

Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) Misleading
… a more illuminating and constructive analysis would be
determining the level of quot;catastrophe insurancequot; needed:

quot;rough comparisons could perhaps be made with the
potentially-huge payoffs, small probabilities, and significant
costs involved in countering terrorism, building anti-ballistic
missile shields, or neutralizing hostile dictatorships possibly
harboring weapons of mass destruction

…A crude natural metric for calibrating cost estimates of
climate-change environmental insurance policies might be
that the U.S. already spends approximately 3% [~$300
billion] of national income on the cost of a clean
environment.quot;
Weitzman, Martin. 2008. On Modeling and Interpreting the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change. REStat FINAL Version July 7,
2008, http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/weitzman/files/REStatFINAL.pdf.

Right-Sizing Humans’ CO2 Footprint

2008
now 45GtCO2

2050
reduce to
<10 GtCO2

2100
reduce to
<4 GtCO2

Contraction & Convergence “ . . . the logical conclusion of a rights-
based approach.” IPCC Third Assessment - June 2000

yr yr
/ /
2% 3% x
7x 19

Wedges Scenario for 21st Century CO2 Reductions
oil gas coal forests
geothermal Assumes:
agriculture
1% 2% 1% 5%
biomass1% 5%
10% 1) Global
economic
bldgs EE
growth 2-3%
15%
per year all
wind century long;
15%
2) sustaining
3% per year
efficiency
gains;
transport EE
15%
3) Combined
solar carbon cap &
15% carbon tax
industry EE
15%

“Leasing” CO2 Mitigation Services
Gigatons global CO2 emissions per year
5 billion tons CO2 per year in
Billion tons CO2
mitigation services available in
25
poor nations, increasing their
revenues by billions of dollars
20
annually ; and saving well-off
nations billions of dollars.
15

10 US
GHG
5
levels
0
Fossil fuel emissions Tropical land use
13 million hectares burned each year
IPCC LULUCF Special Report 2000. Tab 1-2.

6th largest extinction – 1000 times the natural background rate

Research commissioned by the
Stern Review, indicates that the
direct yields from land converted
to farming, including proceeds
from the sale of timber, are
equivalent to less than $1 per
ton of CO2 in many areas
currently losing forest, and
usually well below $5 per ton.

Avoided Deforestation potentially offers one of the most cost-effective,
immediately available, and large-scale carbon mitigation and adaptation
options, second only to energy efficiency options.

For example: it will require $40 billion to capture and store
1 billion tons of CO2 from coal plants.

The same amount of money would prevent the release of 8 times
this amount of CO2 through avoided deforestation.

U.S. Fossil- fueled
Geological storage (CCS) vs
Electricity Carbon Offset
Ecological storage (REDD)
cost nationally per year
Carbon Mitigation Cost per ton CO2

$50
$45
$40 ~$60 billion
$35 3 ¢ per kWh
$30
$25
$20
$15
$10
$5
~$10 billion
$-
0.5 ¢ per kWh
CCS REDD

About $800 billion per year (at 8% of $10 trillion U.S. economy)

100 years of Cumulative Energy Costs at 2.5%/yr GDP Growth
■USA $355 trillion (out of total of $4,444 trillion GNP)
■GLOBAL $1,422 trillion (out of total $17,774 trillion GWP)

200
1970 6

USA Efficiency gains 1973-2005 Eliminated 75
ExaJoules of Energy Supply
$700 billion per year in energy bill savings

Envision 18 million coal railcars
that would wrap around the world
seven times each year.
Or, imagine 8,800 Exxon Valdez oil
supertanker shipments per year.

Only 2 nations consume > 75 EJ per year: USA and China.

CURRENT GLOBAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION ~ 475 ExaJoules (15 TW-yrs)

BUSINESS-AS-USUAL TRAJECTORY 200 times this amount over 100 years –
113,000 EJ (3600 TW-yrs). Fossil fuels will account for 75% of this sum.

SMART ENERGY SERVICES (EFFICIENCY) can deliver 57,000 EJs (1800
TW-yrs). Save >$50 trillion. Avoid several trillion tons CO2 emissions.

Envision OR, Envision OR, Envision
eliminating the eliminating the eliminating the
need for 13.8 need for 10,000 need for 17
billion coal giant offshore million LNG
railcars this oil platforms tanker
century. this century. shipments.

$1+ Trillion Global Savings Potential, 44 Gigaton CO2 Reduction

Hashem Akbari Arthur Rosenfeld and Surabi Menon, Global Cooling: Increasing World-wide Urban Albedos to Offset CO2, 5th Annual California Climate Change
Conference, Sacramento, CA, September 9, 2008, http://www.climatechange.ca.gov/events/2008_conference/presentations/index.html

$10 CFL 6-pak Purchase Value

$300
250
200
150
100

50
0
-50
Investment lst year 2nd year 3rd year 4th year

6-pak CFLs Dow -Jones Average Bank Account
[source: SafeClimate.net]

CFL factories displace Powerplants

The $3 million CFL factory (right) produces 5 million
CFLs per year. Over life of factory these CFLs will
produce lighting services sufficient to displace several
billion dollars of fossil-fired power plant investments
used to power less efficient incandescent lamps.

source: A. Gadgil et al. LBL, 1991

Less Large Power Plants & Mines
More Retail “Efficiency Power Plants - EPPs”
Less Coal Power Plants

Less Coal Rail Cars

Less Coal Mines

Biggest Efficiency Service of Them All:
Supplier Chain Factories & Products

Efficiency Outcomes
Demand Facts
2 trillion kWh per year savings –
Industrial electric motor systems
equal to 1/4th all coal plants to be
consume 40% of electricity
built through 2030 worldwide.
worldwide, 50% in USA, 60% in
China – over 7 trillion kWh per
$240 billion savings per decade.
year.

$200 to $400 billion benefits per
Retrofit savings of 30%, New
decade in avoided emissions of
savings of 50% -- @ 1 ¢/kWh.
GHGs, SO2 and NOx.

SEEEM (www.seeem.org/) is a comprehensive
Support SEEEM (Standards
market transformation strategy to promote efficient
for Energy Efficiency of
industrial electric motor systems worldwide
Electric Motor Systems)

ZERO NET ENERGY
GREEN BUILDINGS

The Costs and
Financial Benefits
of Green Buildings,
Public library – North Carolina A Report to
California’s
Sustainable
Building Task
Force, Oct. 2003, by
Greg Kats et al.

$500 to $700
per m2 net
present value
Oberlin College
Ecology Center,
Heinz Foundation
Ohio
Green Building, PA

Daylighting could displace 100s GWs

Lighting, & AC to remove heat emitted by lights,
consume half of a commercial building
electricity.
Daylighting can provide up to 100% of day-time
lighting, eliminating massive amount of power
plants and saving tens of billions of dollars in
avoided costs.
Some daylight designs integrate PV solar cells.

High-E Windows displacing pipelines
Full use of high performance windows in the
U.S. could save the equivalent of an Alaskan
pipeline (2 million barrels of oil per day), as
well as accrue over $15 billion per year of
savings on energy bills.

KEY POLICY – UTILITY DECOUPLING

Align utility and customer financial interests
to capture the vast pool of end-use efficiency,
onsite and distributed energy and water
service opportunities.

Amory Lovins
Dr. Art Rosenfeld

“Decoupling” & Integrated Resource Planning key to
harnessing End-Use “Efficiency Power Plants”
For delivering least-cost & risk electricity, natural gas & water services

USA minus CA & NY
Per Capital
Electricity 165 GW
Coal
Consumption
Power
New York Plants
California
[EPPs]
Californian’s have
net savings of
$1,000 per family

California proof of IRP value in promoting lower cost
efficiency over new power plants or hydro dams, and
lower GHG emissions.

California signed MOUs with Provinces in China to share
IRP expertise (now underway in Jiangsu).

Avoided Emissions & Savings
per China EPP
Each 300 MW Conventional Coal Power Plant (CPP)
Eliminated by an equivalent Efficiency Power Plant (EPP)
(1.8 billion kWh per year)
Eliminates 6,000 to 8,000 railroad car shipments of coal delivered each year
Avoids burning 600,000 to 800,000 tons coal
Avoids emitting 5,400 tons SO2
Avoids emitting 5,400 tons NOx
Avoids emitting 2 million tons CO2
Avoids significant quantities of toxic mercury, cadmium, arsenic, and other heavy
metals
Avoids Waste generation of 70,000 tons/year of sludge
Saves 45 billion gallons waters
Accrues $67.5 million annual savings
Avoids Externalized cost from pollutants between $50 million & $360 million per year

And EPPs generates several times more jobs per $ of investment
[1]
Estimated at between 2.7 to 20 cents per kWh by the European Commission, Directorate-General XII, Science, Research and
Development, JOULE, ExternE: Externalities of Energy, Methodology Report, 1998, www.externe.info/reportex/vol2.pdfT
T

end-use
bldg scale recycled
nuclear coal CC gas wind farm CC ind
ind cogen efficiency
cogen cogen
Amory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org

How much coal-fired electricity can be displaced by investing
one dollar to make or save delivered electricity

end-use
bldg scale recycled
CC ind
nuclear coal CC gas wind farm
cogen cogen

Coal-fired CO2 emissions displaced per dollar
spent on electrical services

end-use
bldg scale recycled
CC ind
nuclear coal CC gas wind farm
cogen cogen

DOZEN CRITERIA
Desirable attributes of a Smart Energy system

1. Economically affordable including poorest of the poor and cash-strapped?
2. Safe through the entire life cycle?
3. Clean through the entire lifespan?
4. Risk is low and manageable from financial and price volatility?
5. Resilient and flexible to volatility, surprises, miscalculations, human error?
6. Ecologically sustainable no adverse impacts on biodiversity?
7. Environmentally benign maintains air, water, soil quality?
8. Fails gracefully, not catastrophically adaptable to abrupt surprises or crises?
9. Rebounds easily and swiftly from failures low recovery cost and lost time?
10. Endogenous learning capacity intrinsic new productivity opportunities?
11. Robust experience curve for reducing
negative externalities and amplifying
positive externalities scalable innovation possibilities?
12. Uninteresting target for malicious
disruption off the radar of terrorists, military planners?

Uninteresting military target
A Defensible Smart Energy Robust experience curves
Criteria Scoring Endogenous learning capacity
Rebounds easily from failures
Fails gracefully, not catastro
Promote
Environmentally benign
CHP + Ecologically sustainable
biowastes
Resilient & flexible
Secure
Clean
Safe
Economically Affordable

Efficiency BIPV PV Wind CSP CHP Biowaste Geo- Nat Bio- Oil Coal Coal Coal to Tar Oil nuclear
power thermal gas fuels imports CCS no liquids sand shale
CCS

In the USA, cities and residences cover 56 million hectares.
Every kWh of current U.S. energy requirements can be met
simply by applying photovoltaics (PV) to 7% of this area—on
roofs, parking lots, along highway walls, on sides of
buildings, and in other dual-use scenarios.
Experts say we wouldn’t have to appropriate a single acre of
new land to make PV our primary energy source!

Solar Photovoltaics (PV) satisfying 90% of
total US electricity from brownfields
90% of America’s current electricity
could be supplied with PV systems
built in the “brown-fields”— the
estimated 2 million hectares of
abandoned industrial sites that
exist in our nation’s cities.

Cleaning Up
Brownfield
Sites w/
PV solar

Larry Kazmerski, Dispelling the 7 Myths of Solar Electricity, 2001, National Renewable Energy Lab, www.nrel.gov/;

Economics of Commercial BIPV
Building-Integrated Photovoltaics
Net Present Values (NPV), Benefit-Cost Ratios (BCR)
& Payback Periods (PBP) for ‘Architectural’ BIPV
(Thin Film, Wall-Mounted PV) in Beijing and
Shanghai (assuming a 15% Investment Tax Credit)

Material Economic
Beijing Shanghai
Replaced Measure
NPV ($) +$18,586 +$14,237
Polished BCR 2.33 2.14
Stone PBP (yrs) 1 1
NPV ($) +$15,373 +$11,024
BCR 1.89 1.70
Aluminum
PBP (yrs) 2 2
SunSlate Building-Integrated
Photovoltaics (BIPV) commercial
building in Switzerland
Byrne et al, Economics of Building Integrated PV in China, July 2001, Univ. of Delaware, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy, Twww.udel.edu/ceep/T]

Economics of Commercial BIPV

Reference costs of facade-cladding materials
BIPV is so economically attractive because it
captures both energy savings and savings from
displacing other expensive building materials.

Eiffert, P., Guidelines for the Economic Evaluation of Building-Integrated Photovoltaic Power Systems, International Energy Agency PVPS Task 7:
Photovoltaic Power Systems in the Built Environment, Jan. 2003, National Renewable Energy Lab, NREL/TP-550-31977, www.nrel.gov/

Mass
Poverty
More Absolute Poor than
any time in Human History

HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORTS

Human Development Report
Human Development Report Human Development Report
2003 Millennium Development
2007/2008 Fighting climate 2006 Beyond scarcity: Power,
Goals: A Compact Among
change: Human solidarity in a poverty and the global water
Nations to End Poverty
divided world crisis

www.hdr.undp.org/en/

More absolute poverty than any time in human history

Economic Pyramid

Mature markets:
>$20,000/yr Emerging markets:
75-100 million >$2,000-20,000/yr
people 1.75 billion people

Bottom of Pyramid
Survival markets:
<$2,000/yr
4 billion people

Fractal Market Model
Creating a more resilient economy

Sierpinski “Pyramid”
Fractal Market Model
• Robust Scalability
• Long tail markets
• Resilience to Fat tail
disruptions
• More Virtuous cycles,
less vicious ones
• Collective Intelligence
acceleration
• Less brittle or vulnerable
to linear, surprise-free,
industrial model disasters
• Greater social-ecological
linkages
• Harnesses complex
adaptive system Self-similar set, or fractal, a mathematically
processes, not rigidly generated pattern that can be reproducible at
resist them any magnification or reduction.

Bottom of the Pyramid Growth

Creating a World
Without Poverty

Social Business and the
future of Capitalism

Three to four $100 microfinance loans enables most
Grameen Bank borrowers to move out of poverty

2 billion people lack safe water

Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue
Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf

Every hour 200 children under 5 die from
drinking dirty water. Every year, 60 million
children reach adulthood stunted for good.


4 billion annual episodes of diarrhea exhaust
physical strength to perform labor -- cost
billions of dollars in lost income to the poor


A new water disinfector for the
developing world’s poor
DESIGN CRITERIA
• Meet /exceed WHO & EPA criteria for
disinfection
• Energy efficient: 60W UV lamp
disinfects 1 ton per hour (1000 liters,
264 gallons, or 1 m3)
Dr Ashok Gadgil, inventor
• Low cost: 4¢ disinfects 1 ton of water
• Reliable, Mature components
• Can treat unpressurized water
• Rapid throughput: 12 seconds
• Low maintenance: 4x per year
• No overdose risk
• Fail-safe
Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries,

WaterHealth Intl device
Purdue Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-
water%202008.pdf

WHI’s Investment Cost Advantage vs.
Other Treatment Options


WaterHealth International

The system effectively purifies and disinfects water contaminated with a broad
range of pathogens, including polio and roto viruses, oocysts, such as
Cryptosporidium and Giardia. The standard system is designed to provide 20
liters of potable water per person, per day, for a community of 3,000 people.


WaterHealth International

Business model reaches underserved by including financing for the purchase and installation of
our systems. User fees for treated water are used to repay loans and to cover the expenses of
operating and maintaining the equipment and facility.
Community members hired to conduct day-to-day maintenance of these “micro-utilities,” thus
creating employment and building capacity, as well as generating entrepreneurial opportunities
for local residents to provide related services, such as sales and distribution of the purified water
to outlying areas.
And because the facilities are owned by the communities in which they are installed, the user
fees become attractive sources of revenue for the community after loans have been repaid.

Evan Mills, GROCC Demonstration Project: Affordable, High-Performance Solar LED Lighting Pilot via the Millennium Villages Project, http://eetd.lbl.gov/emills

Brightening up life
Micro-utility service
provider Mr. Umor, who
owns a grocery shop. He
bought a solar PV system
with 6 CFL lamps.
One lights his shop, and
he rents the other 5 to
nearby shops, increasing
income by $12.50/month,
paying for entire
investment in 40 months.

http://www.lightingafrica.org/

Village Micro-finance Bank & Village Solar Power
(Grameen Bank & Grameen Shakti)

This is an unique combination
of Grameen Bank and
Grameen Shakti’s
integrated effort for poverty
reduction.
• Solar PV System is being
used for mobile phone
charging.
• Telephone lady earns
US$100 per month from
this pay phone.
• The system also help her
children for their education


Women are enjoying the
hazardless and hassle free
lighting system in their
daily life.
They are getting opportunities
to earn extra money by
utilizing their time after
dusk by sewing or poultry
farming.

Model 1:Entrepreneur install one solar PV system and
shares the load with some other neighbors shop.
In this model owner of
the system pays
monthly installment to
GS and collects load
charge (daily or weekly)
from the users.
This micro-utility
system has no service
charge, rather down
payment is only 10%.


100,000 Solar Home Systems by 2008 in Bangladesh

RURAL HEALTH OPPORTUNITIES
Brick house construction is still widely used in many
Rural China High-Efficiency Strawbale Green buildings
rural areas. Brick factories occupy 1 million acres of
land, destroys 150,000 acres of arable land every year,
and consumes 100 million tons of coal per year.

The inefficient brick homes consume high levels of coal
for heating & cooking, with high pollution levels causing
chronic health problems, hundreds of thousands of
premature deaths, and reduce crop yields.

FOOD SECURITY & AGROBIODIVERSITY

COMMUNITY FOODSCAPES & EDIBLE SCHOOLYARDS

REGENERATIVE BUILDINGS – NEW & RENEWED

ECOLOGICAL RESILIENCE - LAND, FOOD & WATER

URBAN LANDSCAPES – EDIBLE & INCREDIBLE

WILD DIVERSITY & HEIRLOOM SEEDS

Vehicle-to-Grid

Convergences & Emergences

Vehicle-to-Grid PHEVs
Electric vehicles with onboard battery storage
and bi-directional power flows could stabilize
large-scale (one-half of US electricity) wind power
with 3% of the fleet dedicated to regulation for
wind, plus 8–38% of the fleet providing operating
reserves or storage for wind.

Kempton, W and J. Tomic. (2005a). V2G implementation: From stabilizing the grid to supporting large-scale renewable energy. J.
Power Sources, 144, 280-294.

Immense Implications of V-to-Grid
1. National vehicle fleet becomes a vast distribution
system of mobile batteries
2. Intermittent solar and wind energy sources
become economically attractive because plug-in
vehicles provide battery storage
3. Vehicles can recharge batteries using lower cost
off-peak power
4. Vehicles can also provide “spinning reserve” in
case of load loss, earning income on parked
“asset”
5. Dramatic reductions in oil dependency
6. Significant reductions in total power plant capacity
needs

Pacific NW National Lab 2006 Analysis Summary
PHEVs w/ Current Grid Capacity
ENERGY POTENTIAL
U.S. existing electricity infrastructure has sufficient available capacity to fuel
84% of the nation’s cars, pickup trucks, and SUVs (198 million), or
73% of the light duty fleet (about 217 million vehicles) for a daily drive of 33
miles on average
ENERGY & NATIONAL SECURITY POTENTIAL
A shift from gasoline to PHEVs could reduce gasoline consumption by 85 billion
gallons per year, which is equivalent to 52% of U.S. oil imports (6.5 million
barrels per day).
OIL MONETARY SAVINGS POTENTIAL
~$240 billion per year in gas pump savings
AVOIDED EMISSIONS POTENTIAL (emissions ratio of electric to gas vehicle)
27% decline GHG emissions, 100% urban CO, 99% urban VOC, 90% urban NOx,
40% urban PM10, 80% SOx; BUT, 18% higher national PM10 & doubling of SOx
nationwide (from higher coal generation).
Source: Michael Kintner-Meyer, Kevin Schneider, Robert Pratt, Impacts Assessment of Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles on Electric Utilities and
Regional U.S. Power Grids, Part 1: Technical Analysis, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 01/07, www.pnl.gov/.

Area to Power 100% of U.S. Onroad Vehicles
Solar-battery
Wind turbines
ground footprint
Wind-battery
turbine spacing

Cellulosic ethanol

Corn ethanol

Wind & Solar experts

Solar-battery and Wind-battery refer to battery storage of these intermittent renewable
resources in plug-in electric driven vehicles

WEB CALCULATOR- VISUALIZER – COMPARISON OF LAND
NEEDED TO POWER VEHICLES
Mark Z. Jacobson, Wind Versus Biofuels for Addressing Climate, Health, and Energy, Atmosphere/Energy Program, Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, March 5,
2007, http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/E85vWindSol

Food, Fuel, Species
Tradeoffs?
By 2100, an additional 1700 million ha
of land may be required for
agriculture.
Combined with the 800 million ha of
additional land needed for medium
growth bioenergy scenarios, threatens
intact ecosystems and biodiversity-
rich habitats.

Global Wired Mesh Resources

http://www.shirky.com/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/
www.wikinomics.com/
The_Wealth_of_Networks
And incredible video at:
And incredible video at: And incredible video at:
http://web2expo.blip.tv/file/
www.youtube.com/watc www.youtube.com/watc
855937/
h?v=NgYE75gkzkM h?v=NgYE75gkzkM

5000 days ago Pre-Web
Pre-Commercial Internet

“the mostly read only Web” “the wildly read write Web”

collective
intelligence

published
content
published user user
content generated generated
content content

45 million global users 1 billion+ global users

The WIKIPEDIA MODEL:
In 6 years and with only 6 paid employees,
Catalyzed a value-adding creation now 10 times larger than
the Encyclopedia Britannica,
Growing, Updated, Corrected daily by 80,000 volunteer
editors and content authors,
Translating content into 150+ languages, and
Visited daily by some 5% of worldwide Internet traffic.

Clay Shirkey’s Cognitive Surplus

http://calacanis.com/2008/04/30/clay-shirky-cognitive-surplus-talk-at-web-2-0/

Large-scale distributed work-force projects are
impractical in theory, but doable in reality.
The Internet-connected population worldwide
watches roughly a trillion hours of TV a year.
www.shirky.com/herecomeseverybody/2008/04/lo
oking-for-the-mouse.html
One per cent of that is 100 Wikipedia projects per
year worth of peer participation.

Web3.0+
Semantically-linked RW web
1 trillion sites Collective
intelligence
Smart Grid

published User generated
content content

3 billion global users
2010-2012

5000 days ago Pre-Web
5000 days from now Global Cloud Network
Pre-Commercial Internet

Classifying user-generated information
where every click is a datum

Satnam Alaq, Collective Intelligence in Action, 2008

A user interacts with items, which
have associated metadata


Ways users provide valuable
information through their interactions


Some ways to harness collective
intelligence in your application


Different content types


Different content types (continued)


Use of Wikis


Content-based analysis, Collaborative
filtering & Computing similarities

Basics of algorithms for
applying Collective
Intelligence

From User Clickstreams
Representing
intelligence from
unstructured text

The dot products of
Multi-dimensional term
vectors


Harnessing Collective Intelligence to:
Prevent Climate Catastrophe
Avert Mass Species Extinction
Promote Green Prosperity & Well-being

UNINTENDED MOLECULAR GEOENGINEERING
Wrapping Our Minds Around GHG Molecules

LEED Certified Green Buildings

GREEN BUILDING, Laura Ingall Commercial Green Building Manager, SF Environment

CA



Laguna Honda Hospital


Waste as Nutrient – Information Bitstream

Denver Neighborhood solar smart mini-grids – City Park West

Smart Grid Web-based Solar Power Auctions

Smart Grid Collective intelligence design based on digital map algorithms
continuously calculating solar gain. Information used to rank expansion of solar
panel locations.

What is a Complete Street?
A Complete Street is safe, comfortable and
convenient for travel via automobile, foot,
bicycle, and transit.

www.completestreets.org

Portland Oregon 1990
Bike lanes encourage bike commuting
Black lines …Colors show
show 1990 1990 mode
bikeway splits
network...
(by census tract)

Bike Commute
Mode Split
0 - 2%
2 - 3%
3 - 5%
5 - 8%
8 - 10%
City of Portland
10+%
Dept. of Transportation

Portland Oregon 2000
Bike lanes encourage bike commuting
Black lines
show 2000 …Colors show
bikeway 2000 mode
network... splits
(by census tract)

Bike Commute
Mode Split
0 - 2%
2 - 3%
3 - 5%
5 - 8%
8 - 10%
City of Portland
10+%
Dept. of Transportation

Success

Complete canopy closure
Trees planted sufficiently apart in a
planting strip 10 feet wide; this spacing
allowed for the crowns of individual trees
to touch, encouraging development of a
more natural upright form; The 10' wide
planting strip allowed the trunk flare to
develop appropriately State College, Pennsylvania

Saint Augustine, Florida
Seattle, Washington

WATER

Chinese Paddlefish
(21 feet long)

21st Century Mega Freshwater Threats

>85% Freshwater Consumption – Blue and Green Water - AGRICULTURE

Aggravated by global trading expansion in virtual water
imports and exports

>40% Freshwater Use – Thermal & Hydroelectric POWER PLANTS

Many of the same or similar utility and energy policies, rules,
regulations, incentives addressing climate change threat are
also applicable to freshwater threats from power plants

CLIMATE IMPACTS – on Blue and Green Water systems

Failure to stabilize atmospheric emissions under 450ppm could
lead to 1/3rd decline in global agriculture latter half this century
– leading to more land conversion and water consumption

World’s Water 2008- World’s Water 2006-
More with Less
2009 2007
www.worldwater.org/ www.pacinst.org/ www.worldwater.org//

Lakes 52%

38%
oisture
Soil m
Water within living organisms 1%

Rivers 1%
Atmospheric water vapor 8%

Global Water Consumption
• Humanity consumes half of
global freshwater flow
5,235

• No major river in the world
is without existing or
planned hydroelectric dams
Increasing freshwater use
3,973
Total annual water • 2/3 of the freshwater
withdrawal historical
flowing to the oceans is
& projected, in cubic
controlled by dams
kilometers
1,382

Yet….
579

1950 2000 2025
1900 Clark, Robin & Jannet King, The Water Atlas, New Press, 2004.

Immense Water Shortages

projected population
10 billion
• 1 billion people without safe 4-5 billion

water total population May live in
countries
6 billion
that are
0.5 billion
• 4 billion yet to be born will need chronically
lived in short of
countries water
additional freshwater in decades chronically
short of
to come water

Postel, S. L., G. C. Daily, and P. R. Ehrlich, 1996, Human appropriation of renewable fresh water, Science 271:785-
2000 2050
788, www.sciencemag.org/; Gleick PH, et al. 2003, The world's water 2002–2003, www.pacinst.org/; Jackson, Robert
B., et al., Water in a Changing World, Issues in Ecology, Technical Report, Ecological Applications, 11(4), 2001, pp.
1027–1045, Ecological Society of America, www.esapubs.org/

Climate Impact on Agricultural Productivity

William Cline, Global Warming and Agriculture, Impacts by Country 2007.

Immense Water Waste

The efficiency of irrigation techniques is low and globally up to 1500
trillion liters (~400 trillion gallons) of water are wasted annually
WWF, Dam Right! Rivers at Risk, Dams & Future of Freshwater Ecosystems, 2003

Soft Water Path
More productive, Less cost, Less damage

Globally, nearly 70% of water withdrawals go to
irrigated agriculture, yet conventional irrigation
can waste as much as 80% of the water.
Such waste is driven by misplaced subsidies and
artificially low water prices, often unconnected to
the amount of water used.
Drip irrigation systems for water intensive crops
such as cotton can mean water savings of up to
80% compared to conventional flood irrigation
systems, but these techniques are out of reach
for most small farmers.
Currently drip irrigation accounts for only 1% of
the world’s irrigated area.

Gleick, Peter H., Global Freshwater Resources: Soft-Path Solutions for the 21st Century, State of the
Planet Special, Science, Nov. 28, 2003 V. 302, pp.1524-28, www.pacinst.org/

water footprints of the USA, World avg, China and India Period: 1997–2001

USA 2483 m3/cap/yr

WORLD 1243 m3/cap/yr

INDIA 980 m3/cap/yr

CHINA 702 m3/cap/yr

A. Y. Hoekstra · A. K. Chapagain, Water
footprints of nations: Water use by people as a
function of their consumption pattern, Water
Resources Management, (2007) 21:35–48

USA Water Use

In 2000, an estimated 195,000 Mgal/d, or 219 million acre-feet per year, were withdrawn for
thermoelectric power.
• The least efficient water-cooled plants use as much as 50 gallons of water per (kWh.
• Water quality is affected by water use at power plants because of the effects of the temperature
of discharged cooling water and the conditioning agents used to treat cooling water

95% of U.S. terrestrial wind resources in Great Plains
Figures of Merit
Great Plains area
1,200,000 mi2

Provide 100% U.S. electricity
400,000 2MW wind turbines

Platform footprint
6 mi2

Large Wyoming Strip Mine
>6 mi2

Total Wind spacing area
37,500 mi2

Still available for farming
and prairie restoration
90%+ (34,000 mi2)

CO2 U.S. electricity sector
40%

Wind Royalties – Sustainable source of
Rural Farm and Ranch Income
US Farm Revenues per hectare
Crop revenue Govt. subsidy

Wind profits
non-wind farm

windpower farm

$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250
windpower farm non-wind farm
$0 $60
govt. subsidy
$200 $0
windpower royalty
$50 $64
farm commodity revenues
Williams, Robert, Nuclear and Alternative Energy Supply Options for an Environmentally Constrained World, April 9, 2001, http://www.nci.org/

Wind Farm Royalties – Could Double
farm/ranch income with 30x less land area
Although agriculture controls about
70% of Great Plains land area, it
contributes 4 to 8% of the Gross
Regional Product.

Wind farms could enable one of the
greatest economic booms in
American history for Great Plains
rural communities, while also
enabling one of world’s largest
restorations of native prairie
ecosystems

How?

The three sub-regions of the Great Plains are: Northern Great Plains = Montana, North Dakota,
South Dakota; Central Great Plains = Wyoming, Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas; Southern Great Plains
= Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas. (Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 1998, USDA 1997 Census of Agriculture)

Potential Synergisms
Two additional potential revenue streams in Great Plains:

1) Restoring the deep-rooting, native prairie grasslands that absorb and store soil
carbon and stop soil erosion (hence generating a potential revenue stream from
selling CO2 mitigation credits in the emerging global carbon trading market);

2) Re-introducing free-
ranging bison into these
prairie grasslands --
which naturally co-
evolved together for
millennia -- generating a
potential revenue stream
from marketing high-
value organic, free-range
beef.

Also More Resilient
to Climate-triggered
Droughts

Reverse Osmosis (RO) of Wastewater

Reverse Osmosis estimates
considered valid for China today
ranges from a cost of $0.60 per m3
(1000 liters) for brackish and
wastewater desalination to $1 per m3
for seawater desalination by RO.

Extrapolating from technological trends,
and the promise of ongoing innovations in
lower-cost, higher performance
membranes, seawater desalination costs
will continue to fall. The average cost may
decline to $0.30 per m3 in 2025.

RO of Wastewater into Clean Water

For comparison, China’s
average water prices are
about $0.20 to $0.25 per
m3 for domestic and
industrial use, and $0.34
per m3 for commercial
use, to a high of $0.60/m3
in Tianjin and Dalian.

China’s State Council is
moving to raise the price
of urban water supply in
Beijing to $0.72 per m3.
This reverse-osmosis plant in Ashkelon, Israel, will
eventually turn out 100 million cubic meters of fresh
water a year, at a cost of $0.53 cents per m3, the cheapest
ever by a desalination facility.

RO & CHP Synergism for Clean Water
Desalination of wastewater has double benefits: it
reduces contaminated discharges directly into rivers,
and instead, economically expands the city’s
freshwater supplies rather than importing remote
water resources.

China’s total wastewater discharges annually exceed
60 km3,(16 trillion gallons), and less than one-
seventh of this wastewater was treated as of the late
1990s.

Close to 600 million Chinese people have water
supplies that are contaminated by animal and human
waste.

Harnessing 30 GW of cogeneration available in cities
and industrial facilities potentially could operate
reverse osmosis technologies to purify these
wastewaters, while also providing ancillary energy
services like space and water heating & cooling, etc.

A Decade of Immense Financial Loss,
Human Tragedy & Time Squandered

NOW UNSAFE, UNSECURE, UNSUSTAINABLE
First documented in the 1980 Dept. of Defense funded report

Arms Flow -- $1 trillion per year

2005
1950

www.armsflow.org/

Half to 75% of all natural resource consumption
becomes pollution and waste within 12 months.

Closing the Loop – Reducing Use of Virgin Resources
& Increasing Reuse of Waste Nutrients

E. Matthews et al., The Weight of Nations, 2000, www.wri.org/

Current Public R&D Priorities Do Not Represent
Customer-focused, Retail-driven Solutions
Retail-driven Scenario
Status Quo
USA Energy expenditures 1975-2000 2007-2030
• Lower energy
costs
• Lower price
DOE
$8 trillion
Environmental/
volatility
budget
losses price
$325
health
volatlity
• Lower
externalities
billion
$10+ trillion
2/3 Environmental
Dept of
efficiency & Health
Energy
$25 trillion solar, wind
externalities
energy costs biofuels
Military/
• Lower military
Security
4% for all & security
externalities
$10+ trillion
efficiency & 5%
externalities
all renewables
Outcomes Priorities Outcomes
Priorities
Oil industry High energy costs Consumers • Shift of capital from utility
Utility industry Volatile Prices Retailers sector to retail sector
Coal industry Security vulnerability Suppliers • Greening supply chain out
Natural gas industry Higher pollution levels Manufacturers of avoided utility costs
Nuclear industry Long-term environmental Natural resource • Tax-free reductions in air &
Large Hydro industry damage sector water pollution

What a Retail-oriented R&D Strategy Can Do
Supporting long-term stable funding for basic and applied R&D of energy, water and resource
efficiency in the residential, commercial, industrial, agricultural sectors, plus combined heat
and power (CHP), solar photovoltaics, windpower, and cellulosic biofuels, ensures a
continuous pipeline of new production methods for commercializing higher performance, lower
cost and less polluting goods.

Supporting continuous updating of Technology Road Maps ensures identifying new trends and
emergent opportunities.

Web Mesh Agrobiodiversity Climate Water And Poverty Solutions 01 09

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