02 the s curve adoption model 2019 summer

1
Please discontinue use of cell
phone and turn off ringer
The S-Curve
Adoption Model
Innovation & IT Management

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Types of innovations
Based on the extent of technological novelty that embodies a
new product, it is possible to divide innovation into two main
categories:
Technological novelty
Low High
Incremental Innovations Radical Innovations
Small but important improvements
in a product, process, or service.
Relatively common and are
created within the company.
Help companies maintain a
competitive position.
Usually based on an invention.
They change or create industries.
Typically rare and typically start
outside the company.
Alaa Al-Agamawi, A.B. (2009). CS443 Course Introduction to Entreptreneurship, Chapter Three: Critical Factors in Managing
Technology, https://www.slideshare.net/magamawi/essential-of-technology-entrep-innovation-chapter-three-critical-factors-in-
managing-technology, last accessed Aug 15, 2017.
categories:
Incremental Innovations vs Radical Innovations

3
Examples of radical innovations :
The invention of the transistor, which was invented by Bell
Laboratories, triggered phenomenal advances in the electronic
and the computer industries.
Examples of radical innovations :
The invention of the transistor, which was invented by Bell
Laboratories, triggered phenomenal advances in the electronic
and the computer industries.
The development of electrophotography (later renamed
xerography) by Chester Floyd Carlson was the starting point of
radical innovations in the photocopying industry and created a
market of more than $20 billion.

4
categories:
Technological novelty
Low High
Incremental Innovations Radical Innovations
Small but important improvements
in a product, process, or service.
Relatively common and are
created within the company.
Help companies maintain a
competitive position.
Usually based on an invention.
They change or create industries.
Typically rare and typically start
outside the company.

5
categories:
Based on whether new technologies (or even existing
technologies) destroy core companies in an existing market, it
is possible to further divide innovation into two more main
categories:
1. Christensen, C.M. (1997). The Innovator’s Dilemma, Harvard Business School Press .
Propensity to destroy markets
Low High
Sustaining Innovations Disruptive Innovations
categories:
Based on whether new technologies (or even existing
technologies) destroy core companies in an existing market, it
is possible to further divide innovation into two more main
categories:
Sustaining Innovations vs Disruptive Innovations1

6
Introduction
First introduced in 1903 by Gabriel Tarde, the S-
Curve is an indication of the speed (rate) of adoption
of an innovation.
Early adopters
Diffusion
Late adopters
Rogers, E.M. (1995). Diffusion of Innovations, 4th Ed. (p. 11), New York: Free Press.
Sometimes called the Diffusion Curve, the S-Curve is also used
to also depict diffusion, and even markets:

7
Corporate Angels (2008). Corporate America - Designed to Fail? (Part 1), October 26, http://www.corpangels.com/blogs/?p=21, last
accessed Dec 27, 2012.
Introduction
Also verified for:
Video Games
MP3 Player
Air Travel
HDTV
Color TV
Cell Phones
Social Media
Credit Cards
Smartphones
Fridges
Microwaves
Tablets
Digital Cameras
etc.

8
Staniford, S. (2010). Technology Adoption in Hard Times, June 18, http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2010/06/technology-adoption-in-
hard-times.html, last accessed Dec 27, 2012.
Introduction

9
75
16
7 6,5 4,6 2,2 3,4 2,4 1,3
Telephone
Mobile phone
WWW
iTunes
Facebook
Apple App Store
WhatsApp
Instagram
Candy Crash
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
The number of years technologies take
to reach 100 million people worldwide.
Dreischmeier, R., Close, K., and Trichet, P. (2015). The Digital Imperative, The Boston Consulting Group, http://image-
src.bcg.com/Images/The_Digital_Imperative_Mar_2015_tcm55-80124.pdf, last accessed Aug 18, 2017.
Introduction
The number of years technologies take
to reach 100 million people worldwide.

10
Thus an S-Curve describes the evolution of a so-called Main
Parameter of Value (MPV) along a time axis.
Nähler, H.Th. and Gronauer, B. (Oct 2015). From a Toolbox to a Way of Thinking – An integrated View on TRIZ, Conference: TRIZ
Future Conference 2015, Berlin (ETRIA),
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/287646024_From_a_Toolbox_to_a_Way_of_Thinking_-_An_integrated_View_on_TRIZ, last
accessed Aug 14, 2017.
Introduction
Main
Parameter
of
Value
(MPV)
Main
Parameter
of
Value
(MPV)
Time

11
Thus an S-Curve describes the evolution of a so-called Main
Parameter of Value (MPV) along a time axis.
An MPV is a key attribute or outcome of a product or service that
is important to the purchase decision process1.
Basically, the MPV represents a characteristic for which the
customer is willing to pay money.
1. Litvin, S. (2011). Main Parameter of Value: TRIZ-based Tool Connecting Business Challenges to Technical Problems in
Product/Process Innovation, Keynote to the 7th Japan TRIZ Symposium September 9, 2011, Yokohama, Japan From a Toolbox to a
Way of Thinking – An integrated View on TRIZ (PDF Download Available),
Nähler, H.Th. and Gronauer, B. (Oct 2015). From a Toolbox to a Way of Thinking – An integrated View on TRIZ, Conference: TRIZ
Future Conference 2015, Berlin (ETRIA),
Introduction

12
Time
Adoption
Rate
Introduction

13
Performance
Time
Introduction

14
Time or Money or Effort
Introduction
Main
Parameter
of
Value
(MPV)

15
A
B
C
Time or Money or Effort
Performance
1:35
Alanis Business Academy (Feb 3, 2014). Episode 154- Innovation and the S-Curve- Why More Money Doesn't Always Lead to
Greater Improvements.mp4, Alanis Business Academy, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gs9_AnWrPGs, last accessed Aug 14,
2017.
Introduction

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The S-Curve of Technological Progress

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Time
Technological
Performance
Embryonic
Growth
Maturity Aging
Physical limit

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Time
Technological
Performance
Embryonic
Growth
Maturity Aging
Physical limit
New Invention Period
Technology Improvement Period
Mature Technology Period
Source: Khalil, T.M. (2005). Customized Management of Technology, McGraw-Hill.

19
Time
Technological
Performance
New Invention Period
Technology Improvement Period
Mature Technology Period
Physical limit

20

21
Agamawi, M. (Oct 4, 2012). From Idea to Product - Part One, Couse available on Udemy,
https://www.slideshare.net/magamawi/technology-commercialization-workshop-part-2, last accessed Aug 14, 2017.
The New Invention Period is characterized by
The appearance of a new system/technology and slowly begins
development - Small initial growth.
Experimentation whereby initial bugs and defects are worked
out of the system/technology.

22
Note that:
For the first adopter of the telephone about 120 years ago, the
innovation had zero utility.
Rogers, E.M., Singhal, A. and Quinlan, M.M. (2008). Diffusion of Innovations, A chapter in Don Stacks and Michael Salwen (Eds). An
integrated approach to communication theory and research. New York: Routledge (also see
http://utminers.utep.edu/asinghal/Book%20Chapters/Rogers-Singhal-Quinlan-2009-DOI-Stack%20and%20Salwen.pdf).
Note that:
When a second adoption occurred, the innovation became
more valuable to both parties.
Note that:
When a second adoption occurred, the innovation became
more valuable to both parties.
And so it went until gradually there were so many adopters that
an individual could assume that everyone has a telephone.

23
The Technology Improvement Period (also known as the
Growth Stage) is characterized by
Rapid and sustained growth.
Society/markets recognize the value of the system/technology.

24
In the Mature Technology Period
The system/technology becomes vulnerable to obsolescence
and/or to substitution by a new (better) system/technology.
Starts when the physical limit is approached.
The resources of the original concept are mostly exhausted.

25
Worldwide PC sales in the last 4 decades.
Data from: Reimer, J. (Feb 17, 2012). Personal Computer Market Share: 1975-2004,
http://www.retrocomputing.net/info/siti/total_share.html, last accessed Aug 15, 2017, completed with data from Wikipedia (July 24,
2017). Market share of personal computer vendors, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_share_of_personal_computer_vendors,
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
Worldwide PC sales in the last 4 decades.

26
Ojomo, E. (May 24, 2017). Why development organizations should be more like Netflix and less like Blockbuster,
https://www.christenseninstitute.org/blog/development-organizations-like-netflix-less-like-blockbuster/, last accessed Oct 10, 2017.

27
Ojomo, E. (May 24, 2017). Why development organizations should be more like Netflix and less like Blockbuster,
https://www.christenseninstitute.org/blog/development-organizations-like-netflix-less-like-blockbuster/, last accessed Oct 10, 2017.

28
A direct consequence is that the cost of the product is reduced
with time, as market penetration increases through the S-curve.
Performance
Time
Innovation
Growth
Maturity

29
A direct consequence is that the cost of the product is reduced
with time, as market penetration increases through the S-curve.
Examples:
Cell phones and cell phone service.
The drastic cost reduction of unlimited local and long-distance
service for landline phones as well as cell phones.
The cost of color television.
The cost of PCs.
etc.

30
Example: The adoption curve for color TV in the US (and
elsewhere):
Jansson, A. (Sept 20, 2016).Paradigm shift in the energy sector, https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/paradigm-shift-energy-sector-
alexander-jansson, last accessed Aug 14, 2017.

31
Oftentimes, profits lag revenues in the S-curves.
It is not until late in the growth phase that the product becomes
profitable.
High costs for development, marketing (including heavy
advertising and consumer education), and distribution must be
recovered.
Finkelstein, R. (n.d.). MANAGEMENT OF TECHNOLOGY CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION, presentation based on: Customized
Management of Technology by Tarek Khalil (With Additional Information By R. Finkelstein), p. 95,
http://www.robotictechnologyinc.com/images/upload/file/Presentation%20Technology%20Management3.pdf, last accessed Aug 14,
profitable.
recovered.
Example: Amazon.

32
Speculator (Oct 23, 2017). Facebook post, https://www.facebook.com/cryptospeculator/, last accessed Oct 23, 2017.
profitable.
recovered.
Example: Amazon.

33
Russell, G. (Jan 4, 2017). Amazon: The Case For A $1 Trillion Market Cap & Debunking The No Profit Misconception,
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4034288-amazon-case-1-trillion-market-cap-and-debunking-profit-misconception, last accessed Aug
15, 2017.

34
Russell, G. (Jan 4, 2017). Amazon: The Case For A $1 Trillion Market Cap & Debunking The No Profit Misconception,
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4034288-amazon-case-1-trillion-market-cap-and-debunking-profit-misconception, last accessed Aug
15, 2017.

35

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Performance
Time
At any given time, there might be several competing technologies
overlapping in the marketplace.

37
Performance
Time
Existing technology
New technology
Period 1 Period 2 Period 3
Period 1 Period 2 Period 3

38
Performance
Time
Existing technology
New technology
Newer technology

39
Bandwidth
(kbps)
Time
Example 1:
NMT 1G
GSM 1G
UMTS 3G
UMTS 4G
Neumann, R. (Mar 26, 2013). Innovation and the S-Curve, Presentation from the 2013 LiFT Conference: Driving Innovation-based
Growth, https://www.slideshare.net/wright4/double-scurve-model-of-growth?from_action=save, last accessed Aug 14, 2017.
9.6
14.4
2000
1981 1992 2003 2010
2005
Universal Mobile Telecommunications System
Nordic Mobile Telephone
Global System for Mobile communications

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Efficiency
Time
Example 2:
Paraffin
candle
Edison’s
lamp
Sodium
lamp
Mercury
lamp
Slocum, M.S. and Lundberg, C.O. (n.d.). Tools to Forecast Technology Innovations, https://triz-journal.com/innovation-tools-
tactics/breakthroughdisruptive-innovation-tools/tools-forecast-technology-innovations/, last accessed Oct- 7, 2017.
Fluorescent
lamp
Efficiency
(Lumens
per
watt)

41
Computing
power
Time
Example 3:
Mechanical
relay
Vacuum
tubes
Transistors
Integrated
circuits
Microprocessors

42
Computing
power
Time
Example 4:
Windows 1.0
Windows 3.0
Windows 3.1
Windows 3.2
Windows for
Workgroups
Windows 95
Windows 98
Millenium
Windows 2000

43
Computing
power
Time
Example 4:
Windows 2000
Windows 2000

44
Windows 2000
Computing
power
Time
Example 4:
XP
Vista
Windows 7
Windows 8
Windows 8.1
Windows 10
Windows 9

45
Performance
Time
When and how does disruptive innovation occur?
Existing technology
New technology

46
Performance
Time
The limit of value
Old technology
Discontinuity
New technology
The S-Curve & Disruptive Innovations

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Performance
Time
The limit of value
Old technology
Discontinuity
New technology
Disruption
innovation
The S-Curve & Disruptive Innovations

48
Disruptive Technologies - Definitions
The concept of disruptive technology was first
introduced in 1995 by Clayton M. Christensen in “The
Innovator’s Dilemma”.
The term disruptive technology has been widely used as a
synonym of disruptive innovation, but the latter is now
preferred, because market disruption has been found to be a
function usually not of technology itself but rather of its
changing application.
The term disruptive technology has been widely used as a
synonym of disruptive innovation, but the latter is now
preferred, because market disruption has been found to be a
function usually not of technology itself but rather of its
changing application.
Sustaining innovations are typically innovations in technology,
whereas disruptive innovations change entire markets.
Products: Worse is better.
Especially in the IT industry!

49
1979 - Visicalc
1987 - Excel 1.0
1982 - Multiplan
1989 - Quattro Pro
1983 - Lotus 1-2-3
The IT Industry
Visicalc alone, was responsible for the sale of an estimated 200.000/300.000
machines!

50
1978 – WordStar
1983 – Word 1.0
1979 – WordPerfect
1988 – Ami Pro
(Word Pro)
1981 - EasyWriter
1983 - PC-Write
The IT Industry

51
InfoWorld 9 Sep 1985
The IT Industry

54
Sources: Telecomp 2000 Maroc et Telecomp 2000 Daily Numéro 1.
The IT Industry

55
See Booker, E. (1995). Netscape keeps on rolling, Computerworld, Vol.29, No.10, March 6, p. 32.
The IT Industry: The Browsers War

56
Jim Clark
Marc Andreesen

57
Cooper, S. (2014). Whatever happened to Netscape? https://www.engadget.com/2014/05/10/history-of-netscape/, last accessed Dec.
17, 2016.
Netscape
Internet Explorer
When Microsoft embraced the Internet, the company
created a new division with 2,500 employees. In less
than a year this division produced three releases of the
Internet Explorer.

58
Cooper, S. (2014). Whatever happened to Netscape? https://www.engadget.com/2014/05/10/history-of-netscape/, last accessed Dec.
17, 2016.
Netscape
Internet Explorer

59

60
The IT Industry: The Social Networks
War

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Daniel P. (Feb 10, 2017). Thanks to 7 Plus, Apple topped Q4 smartphone sales, can you guess with which other iPhone it beat
Samsung? https://www.phonearena.com/news/Thanks-to-7-Plus-Apple-topped-Q4-smartphone-sales-can-you-guess-with-which-
More recently

63
On August 12, 1981, IBM introduced its first personal
computer known as the IBM PC.
The first PC came standard with 16Kb of memory at a bare-
bones price of $1,265 without a monitor or a diskette drive.
A full-blown system with 64Kb of memory, two floppy drives, a
display/printer adapter card and a monochrome screen cost
$3,735 in 1981 dollars (Adjusting for inflation, that’s more than
$9,275 today).
Source: Happy 30th Anniversary IBM PC, posted on August 11, 2011 by larrymagid, on
http://www.larrysworld.com/2011/08/11/happy-30th-anniversary-ibm-pc/, last accessed on Apr 29, 2013.
The IT Industry

64
A full-blown system with 64Kb of memory, two floppy drives, a
display/printer adapter card and a monochrome screen cost
$3,735 in 1981 dollars (Adjusting for inflation, that’s more than
$9,275 today).
A PC with 4Gb of memory and a 160Gb hard drive has more
than 65,000 times the memory and a million times the storage
of that first PC.
A PC with 4Gb of memory and a 160Gb hard drive has more
than 65,000 times the memory and a million times the storage
of that first PC.
Even today’s smartphones have far more memory, storage and
processing power than IBM’s entry into the market.
The IT Industry

65
http://www.retrocomputing.net/info/siti/total_share.html, last accessed Aug 15, 2017.
1980
1981
1982
1983
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
Legend
Apple Il
Macintosh
Arniga
ATARI 400/800
Atari ST
Commodore 64
TRS-80
NeXT
Other
IBM PC + Clones
IBM missed the initial phase of PC
development.
It started by following PC leaders.
The IT Industry

66
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
Legend
Apple Il
Macintosh
Arniga
ATARI 400/800
Atari ST
Commodore 64
TRS-80
NeXT
Other
IBM PC + Clones
development.
The IT Industry

67
development.
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
0
20 000
40 000
60 000
80 000
100 000
120 000
Legend
Apple Il
Macintosh
Arniga
ATARI 400/800
Atari ST
Commodore 64
TRS-80
NeXT
Other
IBM PC + Clones
development.
It eventually dominated the industry
and set product standards
It even inspired the “PC”
designation for individual
computers.
The IT Industry

68
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
0
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
Legend
Apple Il
Macintosh
Arniga
ATARI 400/800
Atari ST
Commodore 64
TRS-80
NeXT
Other
IBM PC + Clones
development.
It eventually dominated the industry
and set product standards
It even inspired the “PC”
designation for individual
computers.
Yet, it did not own or
control basic PC
technology; neither
hardware (Intel) nor
software (Microsoft).
The IT Industry

69
The IT Industry
The “IBM Compatibles” (or Clones)

70
Lotus was once the Google of its day. Its
core product, Lotus 1-2-3, was the killer app
of that time.
1983 - Lotus 1-2-3
1987 - Excel 1.0
Lotus was once the Google of its day. Its
core product, Lotus 1-2-3, was the killer app
of that time.
Ultimately, Lotus saw that Microsoft was
developing Windows and a product called
Excel.
The Lotus team saw the incoming threat of
Windows, but thought if they ignored
Windows and did not build apps for it,
everyone else would do the same.
1983 - Lotus 1-2-3
Disruptive Technologies - Lotus
Diamandis, P.H. (n.d.).Lessons from Kodak, http://www.diamandis.com/blog/lessons-from-
kodak?utm_content=buffer84fe6&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer, last accessed
June 14, 2016.

71
1987 - Excel 1.0
However, their biggest customers - Procter &
Gamble, Exxon and Shell, among others --
were leaving Lotus and going to Windows
and Excel.
Lotus’ strategy did not work. They could not
keep up. Complete disruption.
Lotus was ultimately acquired by IBM in 1995
and no longer has a product line today.
1983 - Lotus 1-2-3
June 14, 2016.
Disruptive Technologies - Lotus

72
Kodak had been the leader in camera and
film technology for many decades, especially
in the mass market.
In 1976 Kodak had invented the digital
camera. That year, Kodak had a 90% market
share for photographic film in the US.
Finkelstein, R. (n.d.). Management of Technology Chapter 1: Introduction, presentation based on: Customized Management of
Technology by Tarek Khalil (With Additional Information By R. Finkelstein), p. 95,
http://www.robotictechnologyinc.com/images/upload/file/Presentation%20Technology%20Management3.pdf, last accessed Aug 14,
2017. See also
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/retailandconsumer/9024539/Kodak-130-years-of-history.html and
https://www.photosecrets.com/the-rise-and-fall-of-kodak, last accessed Oct 15, 2017.
The case of Kodak
In 1996 it had a $28 billion market cap and 140,000 employees.
That year, it was the 5th most valuable brand in the world.
In 2012 it filed for bankruptcy, put out of business by the very
technology they had invented.
Now Kodak is following in digital photography

73
Disruptive Technologies - Kodak
June 14, 2016.

74
Photo: The Economist, from: Boon, W. (2016). Shell’s looming Kodak moment - How the trend towards renewable energy disrupts
Shell’s core business and why the company should quickly reinvent itself, http://definingcreativity.com/shells-looming-kodak-moment/,
last accessed Oct 15, 2017.

75
What happened?
Kodak was married to the “paper and chemicals” (film
development) business, their most profitable division, while the
R&D on digital cameras was a cost center.
They saw the digital world coming on, but were convinced that
digital cameras would not have traction outside of the professional
market.
June 14, 2016.

76
Extracted from: Whirlwind Pinball Williams Gameplay video 1990 Arcade, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hb-HoYSb9FY,
Uploaded to YouTube on Aug 22, 2009, last accessed on April 29, 2014.
0:33
Disruptive Technologies - Pinball
machines

77
The price of a pinball machine:
$7,500
machines

78
The price of a PlayStation (supporting
hundreds of games):
$299
Source: Downes, L. and Nunes, P.F. (2013). Big Bang Disruption, Harvard Business Review, March, pp. 44-56.
machines

79
Disruptive Technologies
1993
1994

80
Disruptive Technologies
Pew Research Center’s Internet & American Life Mobile Survey, March 15-April 3, 2012 (N=2,254 respondents age 18 or older) and
Pew Research Center’s Internet & American Life Project Surveys, March 2000-August 2011.
chba
34%
41%
38% 37%
30%
28%
23%
15%
10%
7%
5%
3% 3%
Jun 2000
Apr 2001
Mar 2002
Mar 2003
Apr 2004
Mar 2005
Mar 2006
Mar 2007
Apr 2008
Apr 2009
May 2010
Aug 2011
Apr 2012
0
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Dial-Up
34%
41%
38% 37%
30%
28%
23%
15%
10%
7%
5%
3% 3%
3%
6%
11%
16% 24%
33%
42%
47%
55%
63% 66%
62%
66%
Jun 2000
Apr 2001
Mar 2002
Mar 2003
Apr 2004
Mar 2005
Mar 2006
Mar 2007
Apr 2008
Apr 2009
May 2010
Aug 2011
Apr 2012
0
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Braodband
Dial-Up
Broadband and dial-up adoption (2000-2012)

81
A disruptive innovation creates a new market. It eventually
disrupts an existing market, typically over a few years or even
decades.
The term is used in business and technology literature to describe
innovations that improve a product or service in ways that the
market does not expect.
Sources: Wikipedia (2013). Disruptive innovation, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disruptive_innovation, last accessed June 23,2013
and Zwilling, M. (2013). Startups Should be Wary of Disruptive Technologies, Forbes,
http://www.forbes.com/sites/martinzwilling/2013/05/08/startups-should-be-wary-of-disruptive-technologies/, last accessed June 23,
2013.
A disruptive innovation creates a new market. It eventually
disrupts an existing market, typically over a few years or even
decades.
The term is used in business and technology literature to describe
innovations that improve a product or service in ways that the
market does not expect.
In contrast to disruptive innovation, a sustaining innovation does
not create new markets but rather only evolves existing ones with
better value.
Sustaining innovations may be either “discontinuous” (i.e.,
“transformational” or “revolutionary”) or “continuous” (i.e.,
“evolutionary”).

82
https://www.wired.com/2016/03/nikes-back-future-self-lacing-shoe-hyperadapt-1-0-finally/
Disruptive Technologies – An example
of a sustaining innovation

83
In 2006, Nike, the leader in running shoes market in
the U.S., teamed up with Apple to launch Nike+: a
digital sports kit comprising a sensor that attaches to
the runner’s shoe and a wireless receiver that
connects to his/her iPod.

84
In 2006, Nike, the leader in running shoes market in
the U.S., teamed up with Apple to launch Nike+: a
digital sports kit comprising a sensor that attaches to
the runner’s shoe and a wireless receiver that
connects to his/her iPod.
Ofek, E. and Wathieu, L. (2010).Are You Ignoring Trends That Could Shake Up Your Business? Harvard Business Review, July-
August, https://hbr.org/2010/07/are-you-ignoring-trends-that-could-shake-up-your-business, last accessed Mar 12, 2017.

85
As the runner jogs and listens to her favorite music, the sensor
tracks her running speed and distance and the calories she
burned, and transmits that information to the iPod in real time.
As the runner jogs and listens to her favorite music, the sensor
tracks her running speed and distance and the calories she
burned, and transmits that information to the iPod in real time.
Back at the computer, the runner can upload her data to a Web
site (nikeplus.com), which stores her information and provides her
with a user-friendly interface that lets her track her progress.

86
In addition, the website links to social networks like Facebook
and Twitter so that runners can find and form groups of runners
at their level who are interested in sharing challenges and
performance information.
For a Nike+ customer, the Nike brand is no longer about just
the product attached to his or her feet; it is about the total
exercise experience, including the community.
By combining Nike’s original value proposition for amateur
athletes with one for digital consumers, the Nike+ sports kit and
web interface has moved the company from a focus on athletic
apparel to a new plane of engagement with its customers.

87
Disruptive or sustaining innovation?
Source: http://forum.xcitefun.net/worlds-first-virtual-shopping-store-korea-t74128.html, last accessed on Apr. 25, 2012.
All the shelves are in fact LCD
Screens. Consumers choose
their desired items by touching
LCD screens
All the shelves are in fact LCD
Screens. Consumers choose
their desired items by touching
LCD screens and checkout at
the counter in the end to have
all their ordered stuff packed in
bags.

88
Source: http://forum.xcitefun.net/worlds-first-virtual-shopping-store-korea-t74128.html, last accessed on Apr. 25, 2012.

89
2:24

90
File: Amazon GO - le supermarché sans caisses
Melville, A. (Jan 20, 2017). Amazon Go Is About Payments, Not Grocery,
http://www.forbes.com/sites/groupthink/2017/01/20/amazon-go-is-about-payments-not-grocery/#5cc9e9c9498a, last accessed Feb
19, 2017.
01:49

91
8" floppy disk drive
Disrupted market Innovation
5.25" floppy disk drive
5.25" floppy disk drive 3.5" floppy disk drive
3.5" floppy disk drive
Bernoulli drive and
Zip drive
Bernoulli drive and Zip
drive
CDs and USB flash drives
USB flash drives Cloud computing
Postal mail (snail) Email
Disrupted Markets

92
Disrupted market Innovation
Telegraphy Telephone
CRT LCD
Traditional
encyclopedias
Wikipedia
Disrupted Markets

93
An ad-supported
version of the game
Angry Birds was
downloaded over a
million times in the
first 24h it was
made available on
Android devices.
Source: Downes, L. and Nunes, P.F. (2013). Big Bang Disruption, Harvard Business Review, March, pp. 44-56.
See also: http://space.angrybirds.com/launch/
An ad-supported
version of the game
Angry Birds was
downloaded over a
million times in the
first 24h it was
made available on
Android devices.
Seven months later
the game had been
downloaded more
than 200 million
times!
Example: Angry Birds

96
Christensen, C.M. and Raynor, M.E. (2003). The Innovator's Solution: Creating and Sustaining Successful Growth. Boston: Harvard
Business School Press.
The Innovator’s Dilemma
New competitors
almost always win.
The Innovators Dilemma identifies 2 distinct categories -
sustaining and disruptive - based on the circumstances
of innovation.
ln disruptive circumstances - when the challenge is to
commercialize a simpler more convenient product for less
money and appeals to a new or unattractive customer set - the
entrants are likely to beat the incumbent.

97
Christensen, C.M. and Raynor, M.E. (2003). The Innovator's Solution: Creating and Sustaining Successful Growth. Boston: Harvard
Business School Press.
ln sustaining circumstances ... when the race entails making
better products that can be sold for more money to attractive
customers - we found that incumbents almost always prevail.
This is the phenomenon that so frequently defeats successful
companies.
It implies that the best way for upstarts to attack established
competitors is to disrupt them.
The Innovators Dilemma identifies 2 distinct categories -
sustaining and disruptive - based on the circumstances
of innovation.
ln disruptive circumstances - when the challenge is to
commercialize a simpler more convenient product for less
money and appeals to a new or unattractive customer set - the
entrants are likely to beat the incumbent.

98
Performance
Time

99
The Innovator’s Dilemma: The
example of Edge

100
The Innovator’s Dilemma: The
example of Edge

101
Netscape
Internet Explorer
Lucas, H.C. (1999). Information Technology and the Productivity Paradox – Assessing the Value of Investing in IT, New York Oxford,
Oxford University Press, pp. 7-8.

103
Staniford, S. (2010). Technology Adoption in Hard Times, June 18, http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2010/06/technology-adoption-in-
hard-times.html, last accessed Dec 27, 2012.
Conclusion

104
T
T
H
H
A
A
N
N
K
K
S
S
Song: Extracted from the song 141120 TK music sn04.-27510, by Artist: Pleasure Park Music - Licensed by AdRev for Rights Holder
(on behalf of Pleasure Park Music), https://soundcloud.com/zoxfox87/141120-tk-music-sn05-1, last accessed July 27, 2018.

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